Why Hezbollah Will Attack Israel

There are multiple reasons why Hezbollah and its allies in the Iranian axis in the Middle East will engage in a frontal assault on Israel after Israel and the US destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program once so-called “negotiations” have become completely exhausted.

1. The Iranian regime systematically states that this will happen if the Iranian nuclear weapons program is attacked and we would be particularly well-advised to fully believe them.

2. The Iranian regime believes that this war will lead to the destruction of Israel and systematically states so. This implies that Tehran has decided that Hezbollah and the Iranian Axis will use chemical weapons against Israel. Biological weapons would destroy the Palestinians as well so their usage is out of question.

3. Israel will within years have a full-fledged laser-defense system able to shoot down all incoming projectiles. This means that the Iranian Axis has to use its projectile arsenal against Israel before it becomes useless.

4. Iran’s Plan A is to develop nuclear weapons but if the Iranian nuclear weapons program is destroyed, the Khomeinists have determined that this should be construed as a divine sign that they should not wait for developing nuclear weapons but anyway “annihilate” the “infidels” with chemical and biological weapons around the world. This certainly includes Israeli Jews.

5. The ultimate goal of Iran’s geostrategy is to prompt the reappearance of the Hidden Imam and install him as the global theocratic ruler according to Khomeinist principles. Destroying the Jews and defeating the ostensible global Jewish conspiracy to destroy Islam as the anticipated followers of the Dajjal (Deceitful Messiah) is a critical part of Khomeinist eschatology.

6. Octogenarian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei wants to see the Hidden Imam reappear within his own lifetime.

7. There is a Twelver Shia theological doctrine of defensive war forbidding offensive war. An American-Israeli destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program is thus a unique opportunity that the axis will not miss out on.

8. Tehran strongly wants to create deterrence against a second destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program.

9. Iran believes that Israel (if not destroyed) and the allied SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) will lose a war in Syria and Lebanon.

10. Hassan Nasrallah will certainly not act contrary to a “request” or “advice” from Tehran.

However, it is important to emphasize that Tehran and Hezbollah are convinced with medium confidence that their WMD deterrence works and that Israel and America therefore will not dare to destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program. There can nevertheless be no doubt that the Iranian Axis is ready to implement their Plan B.

How Jerusalem Could be Key to NATO’s Enlargement

There are three centers of political power in the Republic of Turkey. These are a) the ruling AK party headed by president Erdogan, b) the Sabbatean-controlled Derin Devlet deep state domestic intelligence apparatus and c) the Turkish military, the TAF (Turkish Armed Forces) itself. While the Derin Devlet is primarily concerned with preserving the secularist character of the state and protecting Turkey’s Western alignment, the Turkish military is nationalist and interested in continued suppression of the Kurds. Erdogan early on under his rule ended the prohibition on the use of the Kurdish language and initiated a peace process with the PKK. The peace process was terminated and the Kurdish media was mostly closed down and obviously in both cases due to intense pressure from the Turkish military. The Derin Devlet although historically never a friend of the Kurds has become an indirect ally of the Israel-aligned AANES (Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria) through the Derin Devlet’s alliance with Israel as the Derin Devlet apparently prevented Erdogan from invading NES (North and East Syria) in 2021. Of course, the Turkish military has no interest in conquering Syria, but Erdogan does as he has never given up his dream of installing a Muslim Brotherhood regime in Damascus. 

The extreme last-minute demands from Erdogan on Sweden and Finland in blocking their NATO candidacies were certainly not expected in Stockholm and Helsinki who had been told by the Turkish foreign minister that Turkey welcomed Sweden and Finland to NATO. Erdogan’s demands appear to be the result of domestic military pressure and so Erdogan himself may not be the problem. Stockholm and Helsinki have sought support in Washington in expecting the US to pressure Erdogan. However, Jerusalem with its close alliance with the Derin Devlet may be a more promising avenue. The Derin Devlet of course, considering its utterly secretive nature does not in most cases maintain relations with foreign nations and certainly not with Sweden and Finland. Israel and possibly the United States may be the only exceptions. Stockholm and Helsinki would be particularly well-advised to consult with Jerusalem (through the TEVEL) as to what could be done to persuade the Derin Devlet to intervene and facilitate NATO’s nordic enlargement. Considering the apparently close coordination between the Mossad and the Derin Devlet there are no doubt things Jerusalem can do for the Derin Devlet, and Stockholm and Helsinki could recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and move their embassies there in return for Israel and the Derin Devlet facilitating Sweden and Finland’s respective NATO accessions.

America, Israel and Iran – A Reality Check

The reality that most do not want to acknowledge is that the Khomeinist leadership in Iran for their own reasons simply do not want to return to the JCPOA and they are not interested in any alternative agreement either. Any viable agreement would have to have bipartisan support and be acceptable to Israel and its Arab allies. A non-viable agreement is unlikely to last beyond the 2024 US presidential election which Donald Trump is expected to resoundingly win and so one must of course ask why the Iranians would be interested in such a short term agreement? They would get drastically increased oil revenues for little more than two years although there would be no increase in international trade with Iran and international investment in Iran. However, the mullahs understand that they are closer to attaining nuclear weapons capability than ever and they are not willing to accept a deferment this time. In 2015 they managed to bring an end to the international consensus against Iran and end UN economic sanctions. These achievements remain in Iran’s pockets without the JCPOA. Iranian leaders believe that they have found economic independence and that the acceleration of the nuclear weapons program must be prioritized in the interest of engineering the Khomeinist apocalypse and thus hastening the reappearance of the Hidden Imam.

Israel’s National Security Advisor Eyal Hulata claimed a week ago that Jerusalem is not interested in a military solution to the Iranian problem. These are surely worrying comments. Are Israeli government officials taking advice from the serial miscalculators in Aman, Israeli military intelligence, whose intelligence analysts insist on misunderstanding the cognitive world of Khomeinists or are they taking advice from the Mossad which is more attuned to reality? Another explanation could be that the Israelis are playing along diplomatically in order to influence a second diplomatic process with the Iranians. Yet another explanation is that the Israeli government completely understands the apocalyptic mental world of the Khomeinists but are not showing their cards in understanding that military confrontation with Iran is completely inevitable yet that there is no need for pushing the United States as war with Iran will come anyway as the Iranian nuclear weapons program advances. This would be motivated by not harming Israel’s military integration with the United States by causing a diplomatic rift with the US when it comes to preparations for a joint American-Israeli assault on the Iranian nuclear weapons program. 

Israel may likely have an integrated diplomatic and security grand strategy in simply not being entirely certain regarding Iran’s intentions and thus keeping Israel’s options open for any and all scenarios while protecting Israel’s security interests and relations with the United States under all circumstances.

Russia’s Successful Nuclear Deterrence

Under what conditions would Russia be willing to use tactical nuclear weapons? It is important to understand that nuclear weapons are mainly psychological weapons. They are meant for psychological deterrence, mainly not to be used, as using strategic nuclear weapons is out of question in Europe. This surely opens the question under what circumstances and where and how Russia would use tactical nuclear weapons? Russia has recently engaged in substantial and successful psychological warfare to convince the United States that Ukraine cannot be allowed to win strategically or Russia will resort to tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine. However, in order to destroy the Ukrainian resistance with tactical nuclear weapons Russia would have to destroy much of Ukraine since Ukrainian forces are not concentrated in a few military bases but are spread out throughout wide areas. Rather, Russian use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine would even further galvanize the Ukrainian resistance. It is quite disappointing that US intelligence has naively bought into this transparent Russian disinformation campaign. Moscow would in contrast be willing to use tactical nuclear weapons against NATO targets particularly considering that Russia has far more tactical nuclear weapons than its NATO adversaries and could use them to deter NATO forces from resisting a Russian invasion of the European Union.

Derin Devlet Should Rein in Erdogan on NATO Accession

The SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) has never ever attacked Turkish territory and has never ever engaged in terrorist attacks against anyone whomsoever. While it is true that the PYD (Democratic Union Party), the governing party in AANES (Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria), is a member of of the feminist KCK (Kurdistan Communities Union) umbrella group along with e.g. the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party), this is merely a loose affiliation. The feminist Kurdish movement is decentralized and includes also e.g. the HDP (People’s Democratic Party) in Turkey which has many seats in the Turkish parliament. Turkey’s demands from Sweden and Finland that they restrict their democratic freedoms and rights and become extensions of Erdogan are without any reason, validity or justification whatsoever and the Sabbatean-controlled Derin Devlet deep state domestic intelligence apparatus in Turkey would be particularly well-advised to rein in Erdogan as there are no Turkish national interests at play whatsoever in his demands. Rather, Erdogan is endangering vital Western interests in blackmailing Sweden and Finland for no good reason whatsoever. It is crucially rather a particularly strong Turkish national interest to strengthen and expand NATO, contain Russia and thus prevent war in Europe. Hence, Erdogan is acting contrary to the Turkish national interest.

It’s the Consensus Stupid!

There is much international hope pinned to a future successor to Mahmoud Abbas making peace with Israel. However, to personalize this issue, to think that the problem of Palestinian rejectionism is limited to first Yasser Arafat and then Mahmoud Abbas is myopic at best. Palestinian society is thoroughly rejectionist. The Palestinian consensus states that a return the 1949 ceasefire lines must be combined with the implementation of the Palestinian demand for so-called “return” of millions of Palestinians who never lived in Israel in thus dooming the Jewish nation state, something which of course is precisely the intention of those uncompromising Anti-Zionists. The Palestinian consensus states that not only must the Jewish population of Judea, Samaria and East Jerusalem be expelled en masse but so must the Jewish population of West Jerusalem and internationally recognized Israel as well. This consensus has for decades been deliberately created and nurtured by the Palestinian leadership to prevent a two-state solution which they obviously do not want despite pretending so when speaking in English. The Palestinian leadership has been offered two-state peace many times since 1937 and has always rejected it out of hand. To claim to want a two-state solution while simultaneously insisting Israel be flooded with millions of Anti-Zionist Anti-Semites would not seem serious to put things mildly, but it is actually very serious, in fact this is the very essence of genocidal Anti-Zionism, the destruction of the Jewish nation state and the annihilation of its Jewish population since there is nowhere to expel the Jews.

The Approaching Khomeinist Apocalypse

“I am decisely announcing to the whole world that if the world-devourers [the infidel powers] wish to stand against our religion, we will stand against the whole world and will not cease until the annihilation of all of them. Either we all become free, or we will go to the greater freedom, which is martyrdom. Either we shake one another’s hands in joy at the victory of Islam in the world, or all of us will turn to eternal life and martyrdom. In both cases, victory and success are ours.”

Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini explaining the apocalyptic eschatology of Iran’s WMD strategy.

The die is cast. The ruling mullahs have long since made the decision to accelerate their nuclear weapons program and thus by extension implement the long-prepared Khomeinist apocalypse. The problem with the international Iran experts who have certainly not anticipated or predicted this is that they are specialists in political science, modern history etc. but are not specialists in Khomeinism. What is Khomeinism? Khomeinism is the only form of Islamism that is apocalyptic. In fact, Khomeinism is at its core a martyrdom-seeking apocalyptic cult. Khomeinism is all about engineering the reappearance of the Hidden Imam and establish a worldwide Islamist theocracy. In order to achieve that aim, Khomeinist theostrategists believe that Iranian control over the region of Mecca, Damascus and Jerusalem is essential since the Hidden Imam, Jesus and the Dajjal (Deceitful Messiah) are expected to appear in those very cities. Therefore, Iranian foreign policy is focused like a laser beam on taking control over this particular region.

However, in contrast the impending Khomeinist apocalypse is a distinctly global event as planned to take place worldwide. This is because the Khomeinist apocalypse is intended to be purgatory in nature and eschatologically usher in a new messianic era under the global rule of the Hidden Imam. 

For non-Khomeinist Twelver Shia Muslims are waiting for the reappearance of the Hidden Imam merely a pious hope that will be realized when Allah so decides. However, for the Khomeinists is the reappearance of the Hidden Imam something that can be triggered by engineering a cataclysmic global event.

The problem for US decision makers is that there is really nothing they can do to influence the Mullahs. Iranian biological terrorist attacks against major American cities will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths or more, yet if Iran were to be allowed to develop nuclear weapons would Iran be able to prevent America from defending itself due to Iranian nuclear deterrence. US decision makers have not yet abandoned the Vienna talks, thus showing that they have still not fully internalized the full extent of the severe threat against America posed by the aggressive theopolitical ideology of the Iranian ruling elite. 

The Khomeinists reason that either they will achieve nuclear weapons deterrence capability in which case they will be able to equip terrorists with WMD with full nuclear impunity or else the Iranian nuclear weapons program will be destroyed in which case they will interpret this as a divine sign that they anyway should lash out with chemical and biological weapons against nations deemed central to the Jewish-American “octopus”. Both WMD mass terrorist scenarios are intended to prompt the reappearance of the Hidden Imam, however the Khomeinists are quite convinced that they will succeed in their quest for nuclear weapons.

A Leopard doesn’t Change its Spots

The new decree by the Taliban regime i Kabul that women must once more wear the burqa was expected and illustrates the profoundly reactionary nature of Islamist movements generally and the futility in hoping for so-called “moderates”, “reformists” etc. among Islamists although they can surely be politically pragmatic and engage in political lying. There are simply no moderate or reformist totalitarians whether Islamist or otherwise. In fact, the Taliban refuse to learn from the mistake of giving refuge to senior al-Qaeda operatives in Afghanistan (something which led to the American invasion of Afghanistan in 2001) as the Taliban regime continues to harbor al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. In fact the new Taliban regime can be expected to become just as atrocious as the previous pre-2001 Taliban regime was.

Erdogan and the Derin Devlet

What is the power dynamic between President Erdogan and the Sabbatean-controlled Derin Devlet deep state domestic intelligence apparatus? Erdogan has always ruled at the pleasure of the Derin Devlet, which has consistently refrained from unseating him. Erdogan always had limited political space to maneuver in domestic politics in terms of what reforms he could enact and the policies he could champion. The bottom line is that Turkey has quite remarkably and only due to the Sabbatean influence remained a secular state after twenty years with the Muslim Brotherhood in power. Foreign policy was always crafted jointly by Erdogan and senior diplomats controlled by the Derin Devlet as Erdogan was never fully in control over Turkish foreign policy. Now however, the Derin Devlet has taken control over foreign policy in aligning Turkey with the Israel-led emerging new regional security architecture. While the Derin Devlet has significant influence over Erdogan and has effectively turned him into a puppet in terms of foreign policy, Erdogan has zero influence over the Derin Devlet whose existence he acknowledges although he dares not publicly criticize the Derin Devlet. What we see however is a slow rolling coup d’état in preparation for the 2023 elections which Erdogan is expected to lose. Thus, the Derin Devlet is incrementally depriving Erdogan of actual power in anticipation of his 2023 election defeat.

The Apostasy of Sabbatai Zevi

Rabbi Sabbatai Zevi, the Sabbatean messiah, was forced to convert to Islam by the Ottoman Grand Vizier under threat of gruesome death. What is less known is that Sabbatai Zevi subsequently became Bektashi, in hence voiding his apostasy as the Bektashi order is one of nine denominations of core Median Judaism. This of course was a particularly sophisticated move on the part of Zevi to remain Jewish as he was apparently previously initiated by leading poskim (top rabbinic decisors) of his generation into the innermost secrets of Esoteric Judaism. An initiation into the Bektashi order is a valid conversion to Judaism. Notably he chose the Bektashis and not one of the many Sufi orders with similar organization and this was hardly coincidental. 

Another question relates to the 300 Sabbatean families who are reported to have “followed him into Islam” and who according to contemporary accounts participated in mass ceremonies of conversion to Islam. However, the question is whether these alleged “conversion ceremonies” (there are no formal conversion ceremonies according to Islam) were actually mass intiations into the Bektashi order which in contrast indeed has initiation ceremonies. Irrespective did 300 Sabbatean families follow Zevi into the Bektashi order and formed their own idiosyncratic form of Judaism fusing antinomianism and Kabbalah with Bektashism. Why were they excommunicated? They officially took Muslim names while communally retaining both Sephardic names and Hebrew names and outwardly claimed to be Muslims which other Bektashis also do but the real reason for the rabbinic excommunication was to protect the Bektashis and other Median Jews in the Ottoman Empire who were officially considered nominal “Muslims” by the Ottoman authorities despite neither practicing Islam nor having converted to Islam. Even though they were considered Ghulat heretics could they under no circunstances officially join Rabbinic Judaism or they would face capital punishment under sharia law. 

Sabbatai Zevi and the 300 families had made the leap from the Southern Jurisdiction of Judah to the Northern Jurisdiction of Israel and there was no turning back.

Turkey’s Dramatic Foreign Policy Shift of Paradigm

Turkey has shifted foreign policy from a maximum trouble policy towards all non-Islamist entities in the region to the polar opposite. President Erdogan clearly made a severe mistake when he in 2021 effectively threatened civil war after the 2023 elections. This has led the Sabbatean-controlled Derin Devlet deep state domestic intelligence apparatus to rein in Mr. Erdogan, including in the international arena where Erdogan has effectively been reduced to a tool for the Derin Devlet’s new foreign policy agenda. What we see is Turkey leaving the Islamist nexus for the Israel-led axis. Erdogan of course is being cut down to size in preparation for his expected 2023 election defeat. The shift could not be more dramatic away from Turkey’s former Islamist neo-imperialist agenda towards apparently integrating into the Israel-led new emerging regional security architecture.

The United States Needs Saudi Arabia

The early assessment by the Biden administration that a return to the JCPOA could be taken for granted and that the US did not really need Saudi Arabia as an ally has been disproven by subsequent events. Iran is more aggressive than ever and Ali Khamenei is apparently grooming the arch-extremist president Ebrahim Raisi as his successor as supreme leader. The US assessment that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud (MBS) is ostensibly a psychopath and the diplomatic drive to unseat him have proven to be a diplomatically costly mistake for which the world is paying in the form of exorbitant gasoline prices. 

Even though behind the scenes US officials admit that there is no hope for a nuclear agreement with Iran there appears to still be a reluctance to officially declare the process dead. The US has since last fall prepared dual tracks – diplomatic and military – and now US officials appear loath to admit that they were wrong all along in spending US diplomatic capital on the diplomatic track, something which has completely undone US military deterrence vis-a-vis Iran and put the American homeland in severe danger of Iranian apocalyptic biological mass terrorism.

Rather, it is clear that America is now more militarily dependent on Saudi Arabia than ever before in its history. MBS is a pro-American, pro-Western and pro-Israeli leader who is seeking to liberalize his nation and enfranchise its women and anyone who understands the ultra-conservative nature of Saudi Arabian society and the overwhelmingly Islamist sympathies of its public opinion realizes that this – at this point – can only be done with an iron fist. Furthermore, MBS is not the sole power in KSA and is struggling with the still powerful Wahhabi deep state. Keep in mind that the Kingdom still funds Wahhabi mosques abroad. The religious police, although not active, still receive their salaries and sharia law is still the law of the land. In other words, there is a long political road ahead for the young 36-year old MBS. Rather than supporting the pro-American MBS, the Biden administration unwisely endeavored to persuade King Salman to remove MBS from power.

Now the Americans find themselves at the end of the road of what was always a futile endeavor, namely the attempt to return to the JCPOA. What military options does the US have? 1) The US can destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program from the air. 2) The US can impose a no-fly zone over Iran and provide air support for an armed uprising. If an uprising fails will a permanent no-fly zone permit regular air strikes against the nuclear weapons program to prevent it from ever being rebuilt again. The imposition of a no-fly zone will significantly facilitate the aerial destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program. 3) If and when Iran strikes the American homeland with biological weapons will America have no choice but to territorially liberate Iran from its totalitarian oppressors. 

Plan B, the military options, all require close coordination with KSA and reconciliation with Riyadh will not be possible until Washington fully abandons the diplomatic track. Early February was supposed to be the deadline for the Vienna talks and now it is early May, three months beyond deadline. There is absolutely no reason to pretend that the Vienna charade can be resuscitated, rather Washington urgently needs to prioritize restoring good relations with Riyadh.

The Danger of Preemptive Apocalypse

Tehran is currently moderately convinced that America and Israel will not dare to destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program. This is one of the reasons for its rejectionism in Vienna. Nevertheless, on Quds Day, Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah threatened that Iran might attack Israel directly if Israeli sabotage operations against the Iranian nuclear weapons program continue. 

Nasrallah belongs to the Arab rhetorical political tradition and therefore typically uses hyperbole, something which his comrades in arms in Tehran do not employ. Also, the Iranian regime lies only when it is religiously required (such as denying seeking nuclear weapons) while Nasrallah in contrast often lies for rhetorical and political purposes.

Why would Nasrallah warn that Iran (and of course its satellites along with it) might attack Israel in response to Israeli sabotage operations against the Iranian nuclear weapons program? The obvious reason would seem to be to deter Israel from any further such covert operations. However, if Iran planned such a surprise assault on Israel, why warn about it in advance and why have Nasrallah forward the warning? 

Actually, Iran may be preparing its own preemptive Plan B. Why would they do so? The Iranians are currently moderately convinced that the Israelis and the Americans will not dare to attack the Iranian nuclear weapons program. However, if the Israelis and the Americans at some point succeed in convincing the Iranians that they are serious about terminating the Iranian nuclear weapons program, then Iran may indeed resort to their own preemptive Plan B. This does not seem very likely but the possibility cannot be entirely excluded. Twelver theology prohibits offensive warfare but according to the Islamist Weltanschauung is the presumed Jewish-American conspiracy to destroy Islam a coherent global entity and so continued Israeli sabotage operations against the Iranian nuclear weapons program may prompt Iran to lash out globally with chemical and biological weapons against nations deemed pivotal to the “octopus”. Under what circumstances could this happen? If Iran gathers intelligence proving that the destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program is already decided and scheduled, then Iran may decide to act preemptively and “destroy” its enemies before they can destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program. 

A surprise attack would make sense as it would catch Israel and other intended victims of Iran’s WMD apocalypse unprepared. Israel for example would likely not have the time to hand out gas masks and issue instructions for isolating windows from gas attacks. Iran and its proxies will only use chemical weapons against Israel since biological weapons would kill millions of Palestinians as well. Attacking Israel with chemical weapons without the IDF Home Front Command having made defensive preparations against chemical warfare would kill far more Israelis than would otherwise be the case and so certainly makes sense from the perspective of Tehran. 

Tehran of course believes that such a cataclysmic global event would trigger the reappearance of the Hidden Imam (Mahdi) in Mecca and thus also the appearance of Jesus in Damascus and the Dajjal (Deceitful Messiah) in Jerusalem. Islam believes that the Jews will recognize the Dajjal as their Messiah and as the God of Israel and that Jesus eventually will kill the Dajjal. Khomeinist ideologues identify the followers of the Dajjal with the alleged Jewish-American global conspiracy to destroy Islam. Destroying Israel would severely weaken the forces of the Dajjal in the Middle East and would therefore be eschatologically conducive. A preemptive attack could surely be theologically justified and it would be launched specifically to deter the destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program and to hasten the US withdrawal from the Middle East. 

It needs to be emphasized that Iran would deploy biological weapons against major US cities which likely would be delivered by submarine near the US coastline and from there handed over to agents in leisure boats who would transfer them to sleeper cells in American major cities. The United States would find it very difficult to defend itself against such attacks which would lead to potentially hundreds of thousands of dead or more. A preemptive/surprise/deterrent attack would in the peculiar Iranian view protect the nuclear weapons program and hasten a US withdrawal from the Middle East.

The governments of Israel, the United States and allied nations are so far making no efforts to alert their peoples to this danger. Perhaps they wish to avoid public hysteria and collapse of their stock markets? It is also possible that those governments are asleep at the wheel and are unaware of the danger of an Iranian preemptive wave of global WMD attacks.

What is Wrong with the Iran Experts?

For over a year Iran experts and intelligence analysts around the world predicted that Iran would return to the JCPOA. Only now are Israeli officials coming to the realization that there won’t be an agreement. Even so they claim that chances of an agreement are “slim to none”. This reveals a complete misreading of the Iranians. The Americans have all along been negotiating sincerely and in good faith to return to the JCPOA but the Iranians have in contrast merely been pretending to negotiate while playing for time, enriching uranium to advanced levels and appeasing Beijing and Moscow. The risk – not chance – of an agreement is not slim, it is nil and has been so all along. The fundamental problem with Iran experts (including most intelligence analysts focused on Iran) is that they refuse to acknowledge the religious influences on Iranian policy making and therefore overrationalize Iranian motivations, policies and behaviors. What is Khomeinism? It is fundamentally a martyrdom-seeking cult believing in an engineered global apocalypse. Without acknowledging this simple fact one misses the larger picture of extremely aggressive Iranian intentions vis-a-vis the entire world.

Putin’s Gazprom Gambit

Russia’s illegal cancellation of its contracts for delivery of natural gas to Poland and Bulgaria is a transparent attempt at divide and rule. Moscow is trying to divide EU nations among themselves in an attempt to deter the West from providing Ukraine with more heavy weapons. Of course, Russia will not cancel its deliveries of natural gas to Germany since that would crush the Russian economy, however Moscow is nevertheless doing its best at intimidating the Europeans, including repeating the worn-out trick of threatening nuclear WWIII. Now is more important than ever for European nations to be united against the Russian menace and fully support Ukraine in every way possible short of military intervention. Ukraine must be comprehensively armed and Western defense industries need to be put into war mode in terms of significantly increasing their production. It is essential to refuse to become intimidated and to act without fear.

Inside the Khomeinist Mind

The Iranian regime openly states that its overarching geostrategic goal is to prompt the reappearance of the Hidden Imam. Yet academic experts and intelligence analysts do tend to not pay attention to the religious dimension of Iranian decision making. Khomeinism is unique in the sense as being the only form of Islamism that is apocalyptic and believes furthermore in an engineered apocalypse. Iranian foreign and military policy is all about creating conditions conducive to the reappearance of the Hidden Imam. While sharia is subordinate to Iranian national interests, those interests are primarily conceptualized as to what is deemed conducive to the reappearance of the Hidden Imam, a.k.a. Mahdi.

One might be led to think that Iran is overly concerned with the wellbeing of Shias as seen with Iranian involvement with Twelvers in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, with Zaydis in Yemen and with the Pseudo-Shia Crypto-Jewish Alawites in Syria. However, Iran takes the side of Christian Armenia against Shia Azerbaijan and has shown no extreme eagerness to take over Azerbaijan. One might be led to assume that Armenia should be a natural Israeli ally and Azerbaijan a natural Iranian ally but not so. Armenia is the most Anti-Semitic Christian country in the world and Azerbaijan is one of the least Anti-Semitic Muslim countries in the world.

Taking over Shia Azerbaijan does not nearly top Iran’s priority list for the simple reason that Azerbaijan is not part of the Khomeinist eschatological region. One would think that the return of Shia Azeri refugees to Nagorno-Karabakh would be far more important than flooding Israel with Sunni descendants of Palestinian ex-refugees but not so.

There are three eschatological figures in Islam who are expected to appear in three different cities, all in the core Middle East: namely Mahdi in Mecca, Jesus in Damascus and the Dajjal (Deceitful Messiah) in Jerusalem. The enemy are the Jewish and other prospective followers of the Dajjal namely the perceived Jewish-American global conspiracy to destroy Islam. Traditional non-Khomeinist Twelver Shias assume that the Hidden Imam will arrive simply when Allah decides so but Khomeinists believe that they can hasten the process by creating geostrategic conditions conducive to his reappearance to the point that they actually believe that they can even engineer the coming of the Hidden Imam. Due to the locations of Mecca, Damascus and Jerusalem is the core Middle East a region of obsessive focus for the Iranian regime. Taking over this region is deemed absolutely pivotal to the Khomeinist eschatological agenda.

Muslim populations in the core Middle East whether Shia or Sunni are however merely chess pieces on the Khomeinist chess board, all for the cause of the Khomeinist apocalypse. The Iranian plan is to attain a nuclear deterrence capability that will allow Iran to attack other countries with chemical and biological weapons with full nuclear impunity. If the Iranian nuclear weapons program is destroyed will this however be seen as a sign from Allah that they should lash out anyway with chemical and biological weapons against the countries deemed central to the perceived global Jewish-American conspiracy to destroy Islam, i.e. the presumed future followers of the Dajjal. The Khomeinists believe that unleashing such a global calamity would almost certainly prompt the Hidden Imam to reappear. However, the Khomeinists are rather confident that America and Israel will not dare to destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program.

Every Inch of Ukrainian Territory

The US government has since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine famously rhetorically committed to the defense of “every inch of NATO territory”. The US policy in defense of Ukraine has been more ambiguous and which aims at “slowing down the Russian advance”. However at one point the Ukrainians decided to go on the offensive in the northern Ukraine, something which actually resulted in a major tactical withdrawal of all Russian forces from the northern part of the country. While this was a tactical redeployment aimed at concentrating on a major offensive in the Donbas, this nevertheless shows that the Russians can be relatively easily defeated. Indeed, the Donbas offensive backed up by the full might of the Russian army also came to naught. The Russian invaders were defeated once more. US strategic objectives in Ukraine must become distinctly more ambitious in setting the sights on the full restoration of peace in Ukraine through a complete and unconditional Russian withdrawal from all occupied territories. This is realistic, feasible, possible and achievable. The armament of Ukraine must be ambitious, complete and comprehensive. Defeating Russia and safely bringing Ukraine into the Western family is a key US and EU interest. Russia is desperately trying to frighten the West as if a nuclear World War III were somehow in the interest of Moscow. 

Russia did not miscalculate when they invaded Ukraine, as they made a cynical calculation that they needed to conquer Europe and become a superpower in order to become able to defend Siberia against a much larger future Chinese military. Indeed, they made a purely rational calculation, however they certainly miscalculated on the incompetence, corruption and low morale, indeed utter weakness of their own armed forces. Nevertheless, they were not alone in this miscalculation since they were universally joined in this spectacular misjudgment by virtually all non-Ukrainian military analysts around the world. 

The US government would be particularly well-advised to firmly commit to a policy of fully assisting the Ukrainian government reclaim “every inch of Ukrainian territory”. Only thus will peace be restored in Europe.

On Islamization in Europe

What is the essence of Islamization? Islamization is essentially a political phenomenon. In Europe Islamization operates under the guise of freedom of religion despite being the very antithesis of freedom of religion in constituting religious coercion. Islamization operates through social peer pressure whereby human beings are coerced into religious observance. A coercive religious environment gives minors no freedom of choice as adolescents and forces them into religious practice and unquestioning belief. This is what takes place in the Muslim ghettos of Western Europe where Islamists are indoctrinating the descendants of immigrants in Europe. This of course is a result of the failure of Western European society to integrate Muslim immigrants who were instead confined to ghettoized urban neighborhoods. This is peculiar and tragic considering that the nations of the Western hemisphere have all succeeded in integrating their Muslim immigrants.

In the Balkans are there indigenous European Muslims, i.e. Bosniaks, Albanians and Pomaks who are good Europeans and democrats with no problems with Islamization. They practice moderate Islam and are not susceptible to Islamism. Of course there are millions of Muslim immigrants and their descendants in Western Europe who have been well integrated into society and who are good democrats and good Europeans. 

However, one must not disregard the significant segregated Muslim population in Western Europe where the youth is largely under the spell of demagogical Islamism. This population grows not only because of higher fertility rates than the surrounding populations with their negative fertility rates but more importantly because of rapid predominantly Muslim immigration. The nominally Christian population in Europe is incrementally shrinking due to negative fertility rates while the Muslim population is growing. Now of course this would pose no problem if these Muslims were predominantly Bosniaks, Albanians and Pomaks or other Muslims with firm democratic values but alas that is not the case and Europe’s long-term demographic future therefore looks increasingly theocratic indeed. 

Western European nations need to put in place a moratorium on most non-European immigration until it has properly integrated its tragically segregated Muslim minorities.

Does Russia Fear WWIII?

How does Russia relate to the potential of World War III in Europe? On the one hand has Russia actively for a long time been planning to conquer the entire Europe and this of course is why a country such as Portugal is a member of NATO. Russia plans to become a superpower once more by conquering Europe and thus hopes to become able to defend Siberia against China in the long term. On the other hand, the disastrous invasion of Ukraine including the failed Donbas offensive revealed some uncomfortable truths about the Russian military. It is incompetent, corrupt and its soldiers have low morale. Therefore, the Russian military is currently incapable of conquering Europe, and NATO could easily kick Russia out of Ukraine. Therefore as long as the Russian military remains unreformed, Russia has much to fear from a military confrontation with NATO, which it surely could not win.

Russia Must be Defeated at all Cost

British prime minister Boris Johnson remarked the other day that there was a “realistic possibility” that Russia would win the war against Ukraine. We must make sure that this does not happen under any circumstances and the effective policy of underarming Ukraine must cease. President Zelensky should not have to complain about having insufficient weaponry as democratic solidarity is not optional, it is instead an absolute obligation and moral imperative indeed. The focus on arming Ukraine is still defensive and this is important and necessary but there needs to be an offensive focus as well. Russia occupies large areas in Ukraine and Kyiv needs to be given the means to become able to liberate all occupied territories. It is absolutely imperative to defeat Russia in order to avoid WWIII and disincentive Moscow from later invading the European Union. Russia must be persuaded to find an Asian solution to the long-term Chinese threat against Siberia. Russia’s plan to conquer Europe in order to become a superpower so as to be able to counter China’s long-term ambitions in Siberia is not viable and Moscow needs to be given further practical evidence that it is indeed not viable. Rather, the solution must be for Russia to align with Beijing’s other neighbors so as to fully encircle China. However, if the Russian military is incapable of defeating Ukraine then obviously it follows that it is incapable of conquering the European Union as well. Therefore, ensuring Russia’s defeat in Ukraine is an absolute interest of the West in addition to being a non-negotiable democratic fundamental obligation.

The Case for a Tripartite Democratic World Order

The rise of the three neo-imperialist powers of China, Iran and Russia and the inevitability that China will eventually grow more powerful than America due to China’s greater demographic size once Beijing begins to economically catch up with Washington requires a new world order. Rather than one democratic superpower should we envision a world order with three democratic superpowers, the United States, the European Union and the Republic of India. Of course India is nowhere near becoming a superpower due to its relatively low level of economic development but this may well change in the coming decades. The European Union however has tremendous potential for becoming a superpower. All it needs to do is to build a unified European military in order to become a power to be reckoned with. The democratic world should proactively promote the economic development of India in facilitating for their domestic industries to outsource specifically to India. There needs to be a global free trade zone for liberal democracies that will provide a friendly environment and international safeguards for international outsourcing and India specifically will benefit from that. America alone cannot in the long term compete with China but the US, EU and India combined certainly can and must do so.

The West Should Deter Russia and Not Vice Versa

Russia has finally launched its Donbas offensive with much of the Russian army in place in eastern Ukraine. The United States and its NATO allies have had ample time to fully arm Ukraine since the February 24 invasion but have not done even remotely enough for fear of angering Moscow. Russia has been quite successful in deterring the United States and NATO from arming Ukraine based on fears about President Putin ostensibly having somehow undergone a personal metamorphosis and become a madman. The Western apparent psychological weakness and Western diplomatic foot-dragging at the expense of the Ukrainians is simply shameful. Ukraine has not been sufficiently armed despite innumerable pleas by President Zelensky to the international community and now Ukraine faces a frontal assault by most of the Russian army. The betrayal is unfathomable and unconscionable. Will Ukraine nevertheless prevail? Yes most likely so but of course nothing is certain. However, the Russian military is corrupt, incompetent and has low morale.

The West appears to still be captive to the “madman theory” which has allowed Russia to deter NATO from sufficiently arming Ukraine as well as to threaten NATO nations with the use of Russian nuclear weapons. NATO is captive to what is known in Hebrew as a “conceptzia”, a strategic misconception with calamitous military consequences. The Russians find no difficulty in playing into the bizarre Western belief according to which President Putin has supposedly become irrational. It is very strange that while the Ukrainians are valiantly fighting the Russians without any trepidation, NATO nations are trembling in fear at ostensible but not actual Russian unreason when in fact Russian decision makers as always are cynical and coldly calculating.

The conclusion so far from this war is that the Russian military is currently incapable of carrying out Russia’s grand plan to conquer the European Union in order for Russia to once more become a superpower so that Russia will be able to defend Siberia against a far larger future Chinese military. The Europeans however appear asleep at the wheel. The upcoming strategic task for the Russians is to reform their military to prepare for the conquest of the European Union. In contrast, the upcoming strategic task for the Europeans is not merely to prepare to win WWIII against Russia but prepare to deter Russia from launching WWIII and the only way to achieve that feat is to create a unified European military. The Europeans do not appear to be learning the lesson that relying on a United States that allows itself to be deterred by Russia is very dangerous indeed. Why on earth should the European Union not be militarily self-sufficient? The European Union has a population of 447 million as compared to Russia’s 143 million. Europe could in principle be thrice as militarily strong as Russia and would not have to rely on the United States for its defense. It is patently absurd that the United States with a population of 331 million should defend the European Union whose population is much larger than America’s.

Why should Americans blindly accept this state of things and walk blindfolded into WWIII? The United States government would be particularly well-advised to pressure EU member nations to form a unified European military that will be strong enough to deter Russia from launching WWIII in Europe. There is no valid reason whatsoever to argue for young Americans once more dying in the hundreds of thousands in the battlefields of Europe when Europeans are perfectly capable of creating their own unified military capability that will allow them to deter Russia from even launching WWIII.

Imagine if we could have prevented the horrors of World War I and World War II. Now we have such a unique opportunity due to the probably temporary incompetence, corruption and low morale of the Russian military. Will we take that opportunity and use the next years to build a unified European military or will we most tragically miss the train once more? If European security architectures that had deterred and contained Germany had been put in place before WWI and WWII then those world wars could surely have been avoided. Similarly, we now have a precious window of opportunity to avoid WWIII before the Russians reform their military and subsequently invade the European Union.

Open Letter to Israel’s Arab Allies

Israel has received official diplomatic protests from Jordan and the UAE for cracking down on rioters on the Temple Mount who threw down rocks on Jews near the Western Wall. 

It is the longstanding Arab position that the Temple Mount and East Jerusalem should be part of a future Palestinian state. Notwithstanding that this for various reasons is not in the realm of the possible, Israel’s Arab allies must internalize that the Israeli police operate within the present political situation, namely that the Temple Mount is part of Israel’s undivided capital. That’s the de facto situation even if it is not recognized by most of the international community. Would Jordan and the UAE be more lenient than Israel with rioters who used mosques and their adjacent areas to attack civilians and police forces, including pelting them with stones? I surely cannot imagine that they would. Imagine if Jordan controlled the Temple Mount, would they be less harsh than Israel in dealing with radical rioters on the Temple Mount? I surely cannot imagine that they would.

Behind the criticism is the barely hidden Anti-Semitic discursive premise that Jews should stay away from the Temple Mount. But the fact is that the Temple Mount is under Israeli jurisdiction whether you refer to that as sovereignty or occupation and Israel is even if you consider Israel as the occupying power under international law responsible for maintaining law and order there and will surely continue to do so.

What then about the status quo? Non-Muslims have always been able to visit the Temple Mount and the Palestinian Authority approves of visits to the Temple Mount by non-Muslims who are not Jewish such as Christians. There has not ever been an Israeli policy to change the status quo on the Temple Mount. Visits without prayers by non-Muslims to the Temple Mount have always been part of the status quo, yet the Palestinians are seeking to alter the status quo by attempting to prevent Jews from visiting. Such horrendous Anti-Jewish discrimination of course is outright apartheid bigotry reminiscent of past segregation in South Africa and needless to say is completely unacceptable.

According to classical Islamic historians, the Jewish temples did exist on the Temple Mount and this not coincidentally is why the place became holy to Muslims as well. This is an indisputable fact. As a vegan and advocate of animal rights I am certainly no fan of animal sacrifice in a rebuilt temple, something which anyway is not on the table since the magnificent Dome of the Rock was built where the temple once stood. Whether Arab allies of Israel believe classical Muslim historians and the consensus among historians generally, the fact is that the Temple Mount has always been the holiest place in the world for the Jewish people and will always remain so. This is simply a historical fact and not recognizing it, is mere religious bigotry. Arab recognition and acceptance of the scholarly consensus of Jewish history certainly does not impinge on the status quo on the Temple Mount. Rather, it significantly contributes to the cause of peace, tolerance and coexistence.

Inside the Mind of Mansour Abbas

Mansour Abbas, the chairman of Ra’am (United Arab List), an Israeli Islamist political party representing the southern wing of the Israeli branch of the Muslim Brotherhood has so far been very successful in charming Jewish Israel. The Quran requires that Muslims tell sweet words to Jews and Christians and Member of Knesset Mansour Abbas surely excels in that peculiar Islamic rhetorical art. Yet, the seeming moderation and religiously sophisticated facade of MK Abbas is intended to buy Ra’am respectability throughout the Israeli political spectrum, including in the Religious Zionism national religious electoral alliance in the Knesset which in 2021 rejected Likud leader MK Benjamin Netanyahu forming a government with the support of MK Abbas’ Ra’am, something which effectively brought Yamina leader MK Naftali Bennett to power. Nevertheless, the truth is that the supposed moderation in Ra’am is limited to the polished facade of its leader as literally no one in the Islamist party is a “moderate”. Mansour Abbas is simply yet another sophisticated intelligence operative of Ankara-based Muslim Brotherhood intelligence which is focused on strategic political action worldwide. The truth is that the Israeli government can do almost anything as long as it sticks to the coalition agreement with Ra’am and Mansour Abbas will not bolt the government as he knows full well that new elections would only endanger the generous allocation of tens of billions shekels to the Israeli Arab sector. Therefore Prime Minister Naftali Bennett can sleep well at night and can even close off the Temple Mount to all visitors for the rest of Ramadan to prevent further rioting without risking his government.

Israel Should Close Off Temple Mount for Ramadan

In recent days have Palestinian rioters on top of the Temple Mount in central Jerusalem repeatedly attacked Jews below at the Western Wall by throwing down rocks against them. Israeli riot police had to calm down the situation, arrest the rioters and remove the rocks piled up on the mount. Action included use of riot control measures, including rubber bullets. The Palestinian rioters themselves had no problem with defiling al-Aqsa mosque as they wore shoes indoors in the mosque contrary to universal Islamic custom. Israel was condemned by the Arab world and Prime Minister Bisher al-Khasawneh of Jordan even lauded the rioters in the strongest terms possible. This distinctly unfriendly verbal public act by the Jordanian PM is particularly serious considering the Jordanian custodianship over the holy places in Jerusalem. How could and more importantly should Jerusalem respond? It appears that the only way to stop the riots is to end access for everyone of all religions to the Temple Mount plaza for the full duration of Ramadan 2022. This will teach the inciters and rioters a lesson. The alternative is daily riots for the rest of Ramadan and peace-loving Muslims and Arabs surely don’t want that do they? The Israeli government should begin with closing off the Temple Mount for a week and if the rioting resumes then the Temple Mount would be closed off for the remainder of Ramadan. Please note that this is not collective punishment since this strictly temporary ban would be non-discriminatory as it would apply to everyone irrespective of religion.

Russia Will not Use WMD in Ukraine

There have been warnings that Russia could use weapons of mass destruction in Ukraine. However, a simple cost-benefit analysis reveals that Russia has nothing to gain from using WMD in Ukraine. There would be no “Japanese effect” as the Ukrainians would not capitulate, rather would this if anything have the opposite effect in further galvanizing Ukrainian public opinion against the Russian aggression. While it is true that the Russian invasion of Ukraine was based upon a miscalcalculation on the part of Moscow, the Russian analysis that Kyiv would fall within days was universally shared by Western military analysts. This case is fundamentally different however, no analyst in his/her/their right mind imagines that Russian use of weapons of mass destruction would prompt a Ukrainian capitulation or even lead to Ukrainian demoralization, on the contrary so. It is important to be cognizant that President Putin always was and remains a coldly calculating cynic and master of realpolitik. Why did Russia invade Ukraine? Russia planned to conquer the entire Europe so as to become a superpower once more in order to become able to defend Siberia against a future Chinese military that will be much larger than at present. Both Russia’s and China’s ambitions are perfectly rational as is their present mutual detente. Western leaders would be particularly well-advised to rely on President Putin acting rationally; and act in a calculated and calibrated manner themselves in optimally supporting Ukraine.

How Should Median Judaism be Announced?

I discovered core Median Jewry c. 2002 and began publishing the evidence in 2014. I have made no effort to go public with my findings other than writing online and few others than governments and intelligence agencies are aware of my writings, especially since I have few readers among the general public in Israel. The question is therefore how core Median Jewry should be publicly announced to the Israeli public and to the world? I am of the belief that this should be done by the Israeli government (specifically by anyone who happens to be prime minister of Israel) but only when it becomes possible for core Median Jewry to leave their current countries of residence for Israel since present rulers undoubtedly would prevent them.

Washington Needs to Mend Ties with Riyadh

In his last and successful presidential campaign candidate Biden promised to treat Saudi Arabia like a “pariah”. It is unclear whether there was a geopolitical calculus of unrealistically realigning with Iran or if there was simply no geopolitical calculus at all behind the “pariah” statement. The latter seems likely since Saudi Arabia has certainly not been treated like a “pariah” by the Biden administration. Yet, President Biden long and quite unwisely observed a personal boycott against Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia. The entire world is now paying the price for this personal feud in exorbitant oil prices.

The Biden administration was long convinced that the Vienna talks were a done deal but no longer so as US officials state that a deal is neither certain nor imminent. Candidate Biden for some reason appeared to assume that Riyadh was dispensable when it is clear that Saudi Arabia is absolutely pivotal in the Middle East. If Iran gains control over Saudi Arabia then Iran will have attained regional hegemony in the Middle East and become a superpower. If on the other hand Saudi Arabia normalizes relations with Israel, then Israel will have attained regional hegemony and will thus have strongly reinforced US global hegemony. Most governments in Islamdom strongly prefer Israeli hegemony over Iranian hegemony. 

The US neglecting KSA and leaving Riyadh to realign with Beijing is certainly not a wise policy to put things mildly, something which undermines US interests and strengthens the distinctly inimical interests of China, Russia and Iran. The US needs to look carefully at the overall balance of power between itself and China around the world as this will inevitably change in Beijing’s favor unless Washington moves strategically and determinedly to build regional NATO-style security architectures around the world led by its democratic allies. While it is true that KSA is surely not a democracy, non-democratic US allies cannot be abandoned to realign with Beijing, Moscow and Tehran, and are vital elements in new regional security architectures. KSA is absolutely strategic for Israeli regional hegemony and thus also important for US global hegemony as Israel defends US interests in the Middle East and Islamdom. 

If the US were to abandon Saudi Arabia; Riyadh would realign with Beijing, KSA would become a Chinese outpost in the Middle East and the American defense industry would lose its largest customer. This would be disastrous for American interests in the Middle East and would significantly contribute to the undermining of US hegemony worldwide. 

Candidate Biden made a mistake in assuming that KSA was dispensable as it turns out that KSA is quite indispensable for American interests in the Middle East. Biden was courageous in breaking his boycott of MBS although the offended MBS understandably refused to take his call. Insulting the future king of Saudi Arabia who is able to determine the worldwide price of oil was never a wise policy. Now apparently MBS expects Biden to walk to Canossa and the least Biden can do is to apologize to MBS for insulting and bullying him. We can certainly expect MBS to play hard to get in the coming months. Biden has not only offended MBS but the very honor of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, put a question mark over seven decades of American-Saudi alliance and so the continued service of Rob Malley as US Iran envoy casts a long shadow over US-Saudi relations considering his stated ambition to realign Washington with Tehran. Riyadh is however unlikely to mend ties with Washington before the Vienna process has been fully discredited and Plan B put into motion. Washington will need to pay the full price for reconciliation with Riyadh which is not exorbitant at all but simply strategic US weapons deliveries and security guarantees in return for Saudi normalization with Israel. Biden will need to climb down the tree in acknowledging that he has severely mismanaged US relations with Saudi Arabia.

There was long the perception in Washington that the US relationship with Saudi Arabia was all about Saudi exports of oil to the United States and now when the United States is marginally reliant on oil imports did some draw the conclusion that Washington no longer needed Riyadh. This perception was always false since Saudi Arabia has for many decades been able to control the global price of oil and KSA has since 1979 been a front state against Khomeinist Iran. 

If Saudi Arabia realigns with China then we will see a Middle East controlled by Russia, Iran and China, surely this is not Biden’s cup of tea. It is either this or US-Israeli hegemony. The answer should be obvious, namely to prioritize American interests.

Why the Russians are Lying on Ukraine

Moscow is infamous for its worldwide disinformation campaigns. Not only was it Czarist Russian intelligence which devised the infamous forgery of “The Protocols of the Elders of Zion” and Soviet intelligence (or even Josef Stalin himself) which coined the neologism “dezinformatsiya”. The KGB through Operation SIG is also also the origin of most contemporary Anti-Semitism, as it was the KGB which came up with the idea of using Anti-Semitism to mobilize the Muslim world against the United States. The effects of this can still be seen e.g. in Islamism and its Soviet-inspired view of the American superpower as a Jewish conspiracy to destroy Islam.

However, the Russian propaganda narrative on Ukraine is almost scandalously incompent or at least it appears so at this stage. Why is Moscow peddling this bizarre propaganda about Kyiv being controlled by “Nazis and drug addicts”? Is it because they have no case for invading? No, it is because they do not want to state their real reason for the invasion, which is Russia’s need to once more become a superpower in the face of China’s ambitions to take over Siberia. This requires Moscow to conquer the European Union and harvest its wealth for Russian military spending in order to become able to defend Siberia against a far larger future Chinese military. Why does not Moscow simply explain that this is their intention and that they are thus acting out of sheer necessity and Russian national survival? It is generally not customary to reveal a war plan in advance and Moscow is accustomed to relying on propaganda as an effective tool to advance its interests worldwide. Furthermore, both Beijing and Moscow prefer to maintain amicable relations – each for their own reasons – for as long as possible until the inevitable rupture and outbreak of major war between them, perhaps 20 years from now.

To draw the conclusion that Russia is somehow irrational because it is lying on Ukraine completely misses the mark as lying has been Moscow’s modus operandi for a very long time. Most content in the official Soviet newspaper “Pravda” was fake, including official statistics. The Russia analysts who claim that President Putin has become irrational say so simply because they don’t understand why Russia invaded Ukraine.

Dialectics of Democratic Decline

Liberal democracy in Western Europe is threatened from two different directions. On the one hand by the Islamizers, particularly the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafis and on the other hand by the Anti-Muslim political parties that are prominent throughout Western Europe. There is a certain dialectics between the two however. The Anti-Muslim political parties generate Islamophobia which fuels racism, segregation and Islamization. The Islamists engage in deliberate Islamization of society which not entirely unsurprisingly leads to increasingly growing sympathies for Anti-Muslim political parties. It is clear that in the short and medium term are the Anti-Muslim political political parties the far greatest threat of the two although in the long term do the Islamists pose the greatest threat to European democracy. What to do then? In order to halt the growth in Islamization and the growth in electoral sympathies for Anti-Muslim political parties must there be a moratorium on non-European immigration until Western Europe’s Muslim minorities have been fully integrated and its Islamist movements dismantled and discredited among Muslims. A fresh opinion poll in France shows that Marine Le Pen would get 47% and Emmanuel Macron 53% in a second round of the 2022 French presidential elections. These are shocking figures which show how out of touch the French mainstream political establishment is. Western European politicians must internalize that immigration is turning dystopian and it would of course be simplistic to blame the immigrants. Focus needs to urgently shift from mass immigration to integration of those already in Europe. The current dangerous dialectics where Islamophobes and Islamizers are undermining democracy in tandem must be recognized as a genuine threat to liberal democracy in Western Europe that is getting worse by the year.

It’s Anti-Semitism Stupid!

What is the problem with Iran? Is it Islam? No, there are dozens of sovereign Muslim nations that are responsible members of the international community. Is it totalitarianism? Well, totalitarianism does not in of itself necessarily make a country externally aggressive. Is it imperialism? No, imperialism is seldom as malign as the Iranian version. The problem runs deeper. The underlying problem is conspiratorial Anti-Semitism which when espoused by totalitarians is a complete Weltanschauung. Please note that it is not mere Anti-Semitism which itself is extremely harmful but conspiratorial Anti-Semitism which is significantly more dangerous. Why is it so dangerous? Because conspiratorial Anti-Semites are convinced that they face a global Jewish conspiracy, which those of them animated by totalitarian ideology for some reason believe they must counter with their own rival ambition for world control. This was true for Nazi Anti-Semites, post-WWII Soviet Communist Anti-Semites and it is certainly true for Islamist Anti-Semites, including Iranian ones. Of course, Nazis claim that national socialism is all about race, post-WWII Soviet Communists claimed that Marxism-Leninism is all about class and Islamists claim that Jihadism is all about Islam but in fact the underlying driving geopolitical calculation and motivation is Anti-Semitism. While it is true that post-WWII Soviet Anti-Semites and Islamist Anti-Semites were/are not as overtly Anti-Semitically obsessive as were and are Nazi Anti-Semites, Anti-Semitism is and was nevertheless as central in their respective geopolitical calculations.

Biden Should put his Money Where his Mouth Is

US president Joe Biden has accused Russia of committing genocide in Ukraine with the caveat that legal experts will have to ultimately determine whether the situation actually legally constitutes genocide. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed Biden’s statement but pointed out that Ukraine urgently needs delivery of heavy weapons. One may surely wonder why NATO nations have so far for the most part refused to deliver badly needed heavy weapons to Ukraine? Of course there are cynical calculations at play, the West is not ready to arm Ukraine for an offensive to liberate all occupied territories due to fears of sparking WWIII and a nuclear war. Those fears are unwarranted and based on miscalculations and misreadings of the cynical and coldly calculating Vladimir Putin who ostensibly has undergone a metamorphosis and become “an irrational madman”. The reality is rather that while the Russian war effort is one big fiasco, the Russians are succeeding in deterring NATO by playing on Western miscalculations and misreadings and as a consequence the suffering of the people of Ukraine will be prolonged. By invading Ukraine, President Putin has made Western leaders shake in fear of WWIII and nuclear war. Arming Ukraine with heavy weapons will certainly not lead to WWIII or nuclear war but will rather shorten the war in the Ukraine as the Russian occupiers will be kicked out faster than will otherwise be the case. If President Biden truly believes that genocide is taking place in Ukraine then surely he cannot continue to cynically refrain from providing Ukraine with heavy weapons.

How the West Misunderstands Russia and Iran

Western specialists tend to underemphasize the importance of state ideology in the foreign policy of Iran. In contrast, Western specialists tend to overemphasize the importance of state ideology in the foreign policy of Russia. There is the tendency to label the Russian leadership as irrational and dangerous while the Iranian leadership is not similarly labeled as irrational and dangerous. President Putin clearly, skillfully and deliberately exploited those Western fears to reinforce deterrence when he insinuated that Russia would resort to nuclear weapons against NATO countries.

The question that needs to be asked is whether it is the Western specialists who are in fact irrational when so severely misjudging those very adversaries of the West? The motivation of Russia in attacking Ukraine and Russia’s general plan for conquering Europe has generally eluded Russia specialists; namely that China covets Siberia and Moscow needs to once more become a superpower in order to become able to defend Siberia from future Chinese aggression and in order to achieve that end needs Russia conquer Europe and harvest its economic resources. In that light is Russian aggression not irrational at all, in fact it makes perfect sense. 

Why did Russia conquer parts of Georgia in 2008 and parts of Ukraine in 2014? Simply to prevent those nations from joining NATO by manufacturing territorial disputes. Why did Russia choose to invade Ukraine specifically in 2022? Because America’s adversaries perceive the Biden administration as weak and Russia simply saw an opportunity to conquer Europe. It turned out however that the Russian war machine was far less effective than virtually universally anticipated and so the Russian military is currently incapable of conquering Europe. 

Russia does not have much of a state ideology to speak of and this has turned out to be a major weakness in the Ukraine war as Russian soldiers simply do not understand what they are fighting for. While the Kremlin has cultivated and honored a number of Russian nationalist thinkers past and present, this is certainly not what motivates Russia in Ukraine as these thinkers are a mere useful ideological facade for Russia’s perfectly rational geopolitical ambitions of attaining superpower imperial territorial continuity with the Atlantic Ocean, the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean.

The fact that Russia cannot at this point conquer Europe due to corruption, low morale and incompetence in its military means that the EU has time to unite and build a unified European military. Of course, doing so will require national decisions in each of the member states of the European Union, but it is urgent that those political processes commence because the threat will not go away, rather there can be no doubt that the Russians will attempt to reform their military in order to make it capable of conquering the European Union.

Iran of course has a largely rational foreign policy and the main exception is the intensely hostile attitude towards Israel and the United States which is informed by conspiratorial Anti-Semitism and apocalyptic theology. Furthermore, Iran’s obsessive focus on its escatological region where the Mahdi is expected to appear in Mecca, Jesus in Damascus and the Dajjal (Deceitful Messiah) in Jerusalem is apocalyptic in nature and therefore irrational in motivation. Is it then irrational for Iran to consider Israel and America as enemies of Iran? Yes it certainly is and it has caused Iran enormous harm, including American economic sanctions, pervasive Israeli intelligence penetration and vast Israeli sabotage operations against the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Yet, Israeli and Western intelligence analysts insist on overuse of game theory in overrationalizing Iranian behavior. It is apparently easy to overlook the irrational core aspects of Iranian foreign policy in light of the largely rational Iranian foreign policy.

The reality is that the core of Iranian foreign policy is irrational while paradoxically everything else is rational. Russian foreign policy in contrast is entirely based on realpolitik and is thoroughly rational.

The Price of Aggression

Let there be no doubt that if Hezbollah and the rest of the Iranian axis launch a frontal assault on Israel in response to Israel and America destroying the Iranian nuclear weapons program there will surely be a hefty price to pay. There will be consequences, there will be a major war in the northern Levant and Lebanon and Syria (which both harbor Hezbollah) will be partitioned. Yes they will be partitioned. Iran does not believe that this will happen because they believe that Israel will be destroyed by projectiles and chemical weapons and if it were to happen do they believe that Hezbollah and the pro-Iranian militias in Syria will win a guerrilla war against a new PYD (Democratic Union Party) government in Damascus. 

To be sure freedom is not free but neither is aggression. By harboring Hezbollah will Syria and Lebanon become fully complicit in any Hezbollah frontal assault on Israel and they will surely pay the price. The world must understand that the Lebanese and Syrian regimes are entering this war fully informed of the consequences and the consequences they shall bear.

Make no mistake, Israel has no choice but to destroy Hezbollah throughout Lebanon and Syria and this is a war of no choice. Thousands of Israeli civilians will die from projectiles and potentially tens of thousands of Israeli civilians will die from attacks with chemical warheads. Israel cannot simply absorb this frontal assault and turn the other cheek in waiting for Hezbollah to build the kind of military capability where it can actually destroy Israel.

Unlike in 1982 when Israel entered with a faulty plan, this time the plan is solid. An indigenous Aramean Christian nation state will be founded as the successor state to Lebanon in parts of current Lebanon. The PYD-led AANES (Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria) will be established as the new government in Damascus. New borders will be drawn up between Jerusalem and the new governments in Beirut and Damascus. The Golan and Median Jewish (Alawite and Druze) regions of Syria and Lebanon will officially become part of Israel by trilateral international agreement. Syria will annex the remainder of Lebanon by mutual agreement between Israel and the new governments in Damascus and Beirut.

What about Hezbollah then? Yes, Hezbollah and allied militias will wage a guerrilla war against the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) just as ISIL continues to wage a guerrilla war against the SDF. That guerrilla war is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. However, what is more significant is that peace will be established between Jerusalem on the one hand and Damascus and Beirut on the other. Of course, the Iranian axis can refrain from launching a frontal assault against Israel in response to the destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program. If Syria does not want to be partitioned it could surely easily expel Hezbollah from its territory. If it does not do so and there is a Hezbollah-led frontal assault on Israel by the Iranian axis then no doubt Syria will suffer the consequences.

The Lebanese regime of course says that it prefers war with Israel over civil war and therefore does not want and ostensibly “cannot” disarm Hezbollah. Lebanon too will suffer the consequences as the country will be partitioned between Aram, Israel and Syria. The Syrian and Lebanese regimes cannot claim to be surprised when major war breaks out. They know that Alawites and Druze are Median Jews and that Israel has a blood pact with the Aramean nation promising the Arameans a sovereign indigenous nation state. None of this is a secret in the intelligence world. 

Those in the international community who do not want partition should diplomatically endeavor to convince the Iranian axis not to attack Israel and should tell Syria to expel Hezbollah from Syrian territory. Of course they will inevitably fail because Iran believes that the “annihilation of Israel” is “inevitable”. In contrast what is clear is that the outbreak of peace is inevitable on Israel’s northern front.

Khomeinism and Iranian Foreign Policy

Ayatollah Khomeini introduced a governing principle according to which Iranian national interests take precedence over sharia. This may seem surprising for an Islamist theocratic regime but can be observed in Iranian foreign policy for various parts of the world. Iran is completely silent on China’s Han colonization of Xinjiang and totalitarian policies of coerced assimilation of Uyghurs and other Muslims in Xinjiang. Iran supports Christian Armenia despite its occupation of Twelver Shia Muslim Azerbaijan’s Nagorno-Karabakh region. Iran supports Russia in its military aggression against Ukraine and occupation of Ukrainian lands despite Crimea and southern Ukraine historically having been under Islamic rule. Iran did not protest against Russia’s brutal suppression of the Chechen insurgency in the 1990s. Iran supports the anti-Islamist secularist Syrian regime (which is controlled by secular members of the non-Muslim, Crypto-Jewish Alawite denomination of core Median Judaism) against the Islamist opposition.

What we can see is that the Iranian regime is generally faithful to Khomeini’s principle of subordinating sharia to Iranian national interests. Exceptions to this faithfulness to Iranian national interests are Iran’s irrationally adversarial attitude towards Israel and the United States and it needs to be clearly understood why this is so. Before the 1979 Islamist revolution, Iran enjoyed amicable and fruitful relations with Israel and America but this completely changed when Khomeini came to power armed with conspiratorial Islamist totalitarian ideology according to which the American superpower is a Jewish conspiracy with the Jewish state being one of its tentacles. This perception is certainly not unique to Khomeinism but is the view of Islamist ideologues generally and thus no less central to the Islamist Weltanschaung than the notion of a worldwide Jewish conspiracy is to Nazism and was to post-WWII Soviet Communism. In fact, the Islamist notion that the United States is a Jewish “octopus” is derived from the Soviet propaganda of Operation SIG, the KGB Cold War era global Anti-Semitic propaganda campaign. Of course, Iran opposes Israel because it is Jewish considering the perceived national/religious character of the ostensible “octopus”.

The conception of self-made apocalypse is something which distinguishes Khomeinism from all other forms of Islamism. While Iranian intelligence is active worldwide, including somewhat surprisingly prominently in Latin America, Iranian expansionism in Islamdom is focused like a laser beam on its escatological region, namely the very region where the three apocalyptic figures of Islam are expected to appear: Mahdi in Mecca, Jesus in Damascus and the Dajjal (Deceitful Messiah) in Jerusalem. Iranian hostility against Israel is primarily because Islamic eschatology expects that the returned Jesus will kill the Dajjal and defeat and massacre the Jews in Israel. Thus Iranian hostility towards the United States is primarily because of the perceived American-Jewish “octopus” while Iranian hostility towards Israel is primarily because it is considered an escatological imperative. However, the Islamic notion that the Jews will recognize the Dajjal as their Messiah and a reincarnation of the God of Israel means that Iranian strategic planners expect American Jews to become followers of the Dajjal as well. Thus, they view the “worldwide Jewish conspiracy” as a Satanic scheme that is part of and leading up to the end of days.

Iran’s nuclear weapons program plays a central part in Iran’s eschatological plans. Iran understands that once it has a deterrence arsenal of missiles with nuclear warheads, it can then attack the world with weapons of mass destruction with full impunity. This is Iran’s Plan A. Iran’s Plan B is to lash out with chemical and biological weapons against nations deemed important to the American-Jewish “octopus” once Israel and America destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program. This is predicated on several assumptions. First, the assumption is that lashing out against the forces of the Dajjal (the “Octopus”) with WMD will trigger the Mahdi (identified by Twelver Shias with the Hidden Imam) to reappear in Mecca and thus commence the escatological process. Second, the assumption is that if the Mahdi fails to reappear at that point then Iran assumes that at least America will be deterred from attacking the Iranian nuclear weapons program a second time. Third, the assumption is that Israel will be destroyed in the conventional and chemical weapons assault by the Iranian axis on Israel. Fourth, the assumption is that a genocidal biological weapons assault against major American cities will force the American superpower to withdraw from the world.

What then is Iran’s Plan A? Iran assumes that it will be able to conquer the region and force the world into submission by means of the use of weapons of mass destruction. When Iranian officials say that Israel’s destruction is “inevitable” they are dead serious. The eschatological region of course has primacy in Plan A no less than in Plan B. Iran assumes that it will be able to attack anyone with weapons of mass destruction with plausible deniability and full impunity, including with nuclear weapons, by means of arming terrorists with WMD. Iran does not believe in MAD because it assumes that Western powers are in practice unwilling to use their nuclear weapons under almost any circumstances. Khomeinists are Muslim Anti-Semites and thus believe in Muslim racializing Anti-Semitism according to which Jews are “scheming cowards”. It is clear that Iran is tactically deterred by Israel but certainly not strategically so.

Khomeinism is several things, it is a form of neo-imperialism, a form of totalitarianism, a form of Islamism (i.e. Muslim neo-medievalism), a form of martyrdom-seeking Jihadism, a form of Anti-Semitism and an apocalyptic religious cult. When it comes to Israel and the United States, it is clear that the regime subordinates Iranian national interests to the Khomeinist version of sharia. This is because the regime is fundamentally irrational vis-a-vis Israel and the United States and similar in this respect to other totalitarian regimes past and present. Conspiratorial Anti-Semitism is a common denominator for several forms of totalitarianism (Islamism, Nazism and post-WWII Soviet Communism).

It is important to understand the irrational underpinnings of the Khomeinist implacable hostility towards Israel and the United States and that Iran is certainly not in any way amenable to American appeasement.

Western Foot-Dragging on Ukraine is Unforgivable

Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022 and the West has procrastinated until now in providing Ukraine with a wider range of weaponry, aside from anti-aircraft missiles and anti-tank missiles. There is constantly the Western idea of only providing Ukraine with defensive weapons and only now at the last minute when Ukraine is threatened with a Russian offensive in Donbas is the West mobilizing to provide Ukraine with a wider range of weaponry. This fallacious thinking is based on the idea of avoiding an escalation of the war for fear of provoking WWIII. Therefore the West is only rushing to provide Ukraine weapons at the last minute to avert Ukrainian defeat. This is a mistaken approach. The Russian forces are corrupt, incompetent and suffer from low morale. The highly motivated and skilled Ukrainian forces certainly have the potential to completely evict the Russian occupiers from Ukrainian territory and they need comprehensive assistance from the West so as to make this happen as soon as possible. The sooner the Russian occupiers can be kicked out of sovereign Ukraine the sooner will this war also end. Comprehensive armament of Ukraine will certainly help put an end to this war. The West needs not currently fear WWIII, the Russian military surely is in no shape to invade NATO countries.

There is no Alternative to Total Victory

Although there are ongoing so-called “negotiations” between Ukraine and Russia while Russia is pulverizing Ukrainian cities, it is clear that there is no alternative to the total liberation of Ukraine. Furthermore, there is in practice no alternative to full Ukrainian membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union. The ephemeral talk of other nations providing inherently unreliable so-called “security guarantees” instead of Ukraine becoming a member of NATO is a mere distraction. While Russia is preparing an offensive in Donbas, it is unclear whether that will be more effective than the failed Russian siege of Kyiv. In fact, Ukrainian military forces are concentrated in Donbas and have throughout the war been well-prepared for a major Russian offensive there. There is every indication that peace in Ukraine will not be achieved until every inch of Russian-occupied sovereign Ukrainian territory has been militarily liberated. We must internalize that neo-imperialism – whether Chinese, Iranian or Russian – must be fully defeated worldwide.

Collective Conversions are Necessary

Israel’s diverse government has lost its majority in the Knesset with the defection of coalition whip Idit Silman, apparently over the issue of conversion reform. There can be little doubt that Member of Knesset Silman found herself under heavy rabbinical pressure and that she ultimately relented. There is also the issue that mainstream Modern Orthodoxy in the United States promised to not recognize the decentralized Israeli conversions due to pressure from Israel’s Haredi Chief Rabbis. While it is quite possible that Bennett and Lapid may return to power after there are new elections in Israel, there is need for a new conversion proposal for which there will be much broader agreement among Religious Zionist rabbis in Israel and Modern Orthodox rabbis abroad. What is needed therefore are collective conversions. Collective conversions have been performed multiple times before in Jewish history. While it is true that the regular conversion system in Israel needs to be reformed this should be done within the Religious Zionist consensus. There must be a single mass conversion of most of the 450 000 Israelis who lack formal religious affiliation. There needs to be significant consensus building among Religious Zionist and Modern Orthodox rabbis for such a singular historical event.

Building the Regional Security Architecture Cannot Wait

The triangular relationship between the State of Israel, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United States of America is essential for the emerging regional security architecture in the Middle East and Islamdom at large. Much is at stake, will Iran come to dominate the Middle East and Islamdom or will it not? All this is held hostage by the intense personal animosity between the crown prince of Saudi Arabia and the president of the United States. Saudi and American diplomats probably dare not even discuss the question of the personal dispute between the two leaders due to the immense sensitivity at hand. Building a new regional security architecture and including as many regional nations as possible is quite an urgent task. Considering the sensitivity and urgency of the issue, there is certainly a need for a traditional sulha (reconciliation) process between MBS and Biden. 

The Saudis are profoundly suspicious of American intentions and understandably so. The Saudis of course understand that US Iran envoy Rob Malley wants to sell them out but do not know whether his personal Iran agenda is also the agenda of the Biden administration as a whole. The Saudis are furthermore perplexed by the undiplomatic and profoundly culturally insensitive behavior of the Biden administration towards the Saudi ruler.

Yet the fact is that MBS was ready in 2021 to normalize relations with Israel and thus join the emerging new regional security architecture and the United States for unknown reasons turned down his offer. To the Saudis this of course seems like suspicious behavior and would indicate that the Biden administration is beholden to Malley’s personal Iran agenda of realigning America with Iran.

From the Saudi perspective, American-Saudi relations are deepfrozen due to Saudi lack of trust in the Biden administration. However, Riyadh needs to take a realist, non-emotive perspective on the issue. There is no chance that Malley’s agenda of reconciling, much less aligning Iran and America will succeed. Even the Vienna talks are two months beyond their deadline and Tehran is merely playing for time while pretending to negotiate and using the time to legitimize their advanced uranium enrichment.

I certainly agree with the Saudi position that the United States needs to provide security guarantees and sell advanced weaponry as part of KSA normalizing relations with Israel. This is a most reasonable demand since Riyadh joining the new emerging regional security architecture should involve a significant upgrade to the Saudi-Israeli-American triangular relationship. It is of course also immensely frustrating to Riyadh that American Jewish organizations apparently currently are ineffective in their advocacy for Riyadh in Washington. 

Saudi Arabia needs to consider a different approach whereby things will not occur in the exact order currently expected and desired by Riyadh. By beginning with normalization with Jerusalem will Riyadh also pave the way for normalization with Washington. The Biden administration for some reason does not believe it needs to provide incentives to Muslim nations interested in normalization with Israel. Why this is so is unclear. The Biden administration probably mistakenly perceives normalization as a bilateral issue between Jerusalem and Riyadh rather than a trilateral issue between America, Israel and KSA. The results are in any case apparent since no Muslim nation has normalized relations with Israel since team Biden took over the White House and team Biden unfortunately do not appear overly concerned.

The reality is that China and Russia offer no attractive alternatives to KSA as they are already aligned with Iran. Of course it is reasonable for KSA to keep its options open with regard to Beijing and Moscow should Washington go so far as abandoning Saudi Arabia. However, the reality is that KSA presently has no other realistic option than alignment with Israel and integration into the new emerging regional security architecture. There is no sense in further deferring this as Saudi Arabia is quite indispensable to the new regional security architecture which in turn is indispensable to KSA. I make no excuses for the inexplicable refusal of the United States to provide security guarantees and sell further advanced weaponry to Saudi Arabia, however Riyadh must act resolutely to safeguard its own vital national security interests and it needs to do so without any further undue delay.

The US Needs to Provide Incentives to Saudi Arabia

In 2021 Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman al-Saud made a generous offer to US National Security Advisory Jake Sullivan. MBS offered to normalize relations with Israel in return for a list of demands for so-called “incentives” (i.e. security guarantees and weapons sales). The Americans not only inexplicably turned down the generous offer but apparently rudely refused to negotiate the proposal and even severely embarrassed MBS by leaking the story to the media. Even I, who am specialized at understanding how governments reason and calculate, find myself perplexed at the American behavior and I am sure the Saudis are so as well.

Let’s break this down. 

What are the intentions of the Biden administration in the Middle East? It is no secret that Biden’s Iran envoy Rob Malley wants not only to reconcile America and Iran but even wants to align America with Iran. The fact that this is wholly unrealistic does not strictly matter in regional politics because it nevertheless strikes existential fears in regional capitals, including in Riyadh. It is also no secret that Barack Obama shared Rob Malley’s ambitions vis-a-vis Iran but Joe Biden is no Obama and there are so far no indications that Biden shares Obama’s pro-Islamist inclinations. MBS however apparently interpreted the Americans inexplicably turning down his offer for normalization as revealing that Biden shared Obama’s and Malley’s ambition for realignment with Iran.

The Biden administration long resisted a new Israel-led regional security architecture as planned by the Trump administration. The idea was to disengage from the region to some degree and let Israel defend America’s interests in Islamdom while America would defend Israel’s interests outside Islamdom. Then Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatened the semi-hostile Obama administration that Israel might realign with China. This caused the Biden administration to be skeptical at devolving powers to Israel in Islamdom. Eventually diplomacy succeeded to convince the Americans that Israel is firmly in the pro-American camp and that Israel is merely keeping its options open with regard to Beijing and Moscow should a hostile American administration against all wisdom and contrary to the American national interest choose to abandon Israel.

Of course, the likelihood of American-Iranian reconciliation while the current regime is in power is astronomically low, yet for Arab governments even the suspicion that their American ally is planning to sell them out is unnerving as that would mean that the Biden administration is not trustworthy and is devoid of honor. This explains why MBZ and MBS refused to take the call of President Biden after the American president ended his year-long telephone embargo against the Saudi crown prince. Of course, the Saudi threat to realign with China is a bluff – MBS is waiting for his buddies (Trump and Kushner) to return to the White House in January 2025 – but we also need to understand this problem from the perspective of the Biden administration.

US intelligence had made a pseudo-psychiatric diagnosis of MBS as an ostensible psychopath. Such “diagnoses” on a distance are however inherently unreliable and problematic. MBS has also been accused of beating his wife. Evidence suggests to the contrary that MBS is a committed feminist and a liberal who is an extremely talented and shrewd navigator in domestic politics. Anyone even vaguely familiar with the ultra-traditional nature of Saudi society and its thoroughly Islamist sympathies must understand that liberalizing the country and enfranchising its women can only be done with an iron fist or else the KSA would end up like the Shah’s Iran. Biden hoped to persuade King Salman to replace MBS with another prince as crown prince. This bet proved severely mistaken as MBS is more powerful than ever and now there is a vendetta and an abyss of mistrust between Biden and MBS.

First Saudi and American diplomats must understand that this mistrust is mutual. Second, there is also the issue that both leaders have proven quite inept in foreign policy as they are both specialized in domestic politics. Third, the Biden administration does not trust MBS and is uncertain of his value as an ally now that America does not import much oil. Fourth, MBS has repeated Netanyahu’s mistake of threatening to align with China. Fifth, there is a misperception in Washington that MBS is somehow akin to Saddam Hussein, i.e. a ruthless and capricious Arab ally with a problematic personality who could easily turn into an adversary. Sixth, MBS made a mistake in not taking Biden’s phone call as this was an opportunity for reconciliation and confidence building with the American president.

It is essential to understand that Saudi normalization with Israel will take place in the context of the Saudi-Israeli-American triangular relationship and is certainly not merely a bilateral Saudi-Israeli matter. Saudi normalization with Israel is a vital American national interest and it is perfectly reasonable to expect the US government to invest in the Saudi-Israeli relationship by exporting advanced weaponry and providing security guarantees to Saudi Arabia. The new Israel-led security architecture in the region cannot be built without America’s active participation and the same is true for normalization between Israel and Muslim nations. 

It is however also important to understand MBS’ perspective as MBS is someone who is somewhat desperate and is running out of options. From MBS’ perspective, alignment with Israel is of limited value without the American blessing. However, it is important to be cognizant that the new regional security architecture is just as much about protecting American interests as it is about promoting the interests of Israel and its Arab allies. MBS is keenly aware of how easily President Obama abandoned President Mubarak and MBS can therefore no doubt quite easily imagine the vociferously Anti-Saudi Biden abandoning the entire Saudi Arabia for empty Iranian promises. Therefore for MBS the threat to realign with China is not merely an empty threat, this is what MBS is preparing to do if Biden realigns with Khamenei. Of course there is zero likelihood of that happening considering official Iranian Anti-American, Anti-Semitic, Islamist political theology based on the notion that the American superpower is a Jewish conspiracy to destroy Islam. However, the Saudi perception is nevertheless that Biden is unreliable and cannot be trusted because he has dishonorable intentions. For decades there was the perception among pro-Western Arab leaders that Israelis were dishonorable and Americans honorable and now the perception has shifted to the exact reverse.

The Biden administration perceives normalization as a bilateral issue between Israel and concerned Muslim nations. This is distinctly not how those Muslim nations see things. America and Israel are intertwined in exercising influence over each other. They are not only connected by common interests and common values but are also highly interdependent. The situation is complex, America is the sole superpower in decline while Israel is a regional great power on the ascent. America is overstretched and cannot globally compete in the long term with China unless it significantly empowers its democratic allies, including Israel, Japan, India and the European Union. In addition to democratic allies are there non-democratic allies such as Arab nations that depend no less on America for their very existence. Therefore regional alliances must be built between America’s democratic and non-democratic allies.

Both the Saudis and the Americans need to understand that this issue is deeply personal for both leaders and so sensitive diplomatic engagement is essential to allay mutual suspicions. Both nations remain absolutely indispensable for each other and so it is essential to find a path towards personal reconciliation. Building a new regional security architecture in the Middle East is a vital American national security interest. America is overstretched and must empower its democratic allies to align with and strengthen America’s non-democratic allies. As Russia is preparing to arm apocalyptic Iran with fighter aircraft, it is essential that the new security architecture is quickly put in place to prepare for any kind of military scenario. America is the third party to any future Muslim normalization with Israel and so any Muslim nation considering normalizing relations with Israel expects American concessions. 

Yet, Saudi Arabia is not just any nation in the Middle East and Islamdom. Saudi Arabia is absolutely strategically indispensable to the emerging new regional security architecture. The Biden administration may reason that the Saudis do not need American incentives to normalize relations with Israel. However, this is a mistake as the Saudis want to be part of the Israeli-American relationship and therefore want assurances that they will not be sold out by Malley. While Malley is actually detached from reality on Iran as was Obama in seriously endeavoring to realign with Iran, it must be understood that intentions are intrinsic to honor and these are things that still very much matter in the Middle East.

MBS’ calculation is simple. Either will Biden abandon Saudi Arabia and MBS will realign with China or else will MBS outlast Biden, and Trump will provide incentives to Saudi Arabia for Riyadh normalizing relations with Jerusalem. However, this is three years too late for joining the new regional security architecture and it is strongly an American, Saudi, and Israeli interest that KSA join as soon as possible. Surely, vital American and Saudi national interests cannot be held hostage for three years due to mutual distrust between the two leaders.

Europe: Tolerance Ends Where Islamization Begins

Western Europe is to Americans a progressive utopia, it has advanced welfare states, LGBT protections and advanced gender equality. Yet Western Europe suffers from crime-ridden Muslim urban enclaves infested with Islamization and honor culture where European tolerance ends. Jews and LGBTI people cannot live there and Islamization and honor culture is enforced on women and girls. This is the face of Islamism in Europe, the face of contemporary European Islamization. Most Jews have fled Sweden’s third city of Malmö due to Islamist persecution. Yet, European governments remain completely helpless in the face of those trends since they feel that they have to respect freedom of religion. 

There is another option though and that is protecting open society from its enemies. Europe should ban most immigration from outside the continent until it has successfully integrated its segregated Muslim minorities. Furthermore, European nations should institute a ban on totalitarian organizations and totalitarian propaganda, including Communists, Islamists and Nazis.

Freedom of religion includes freedom from religion and must include protecting the religious choices of all residents and citizens, including importantly of ex-Muslims. The reality is that European governments have effectively abandoned the people of their Muslim enclaves to criminals and Islamists. The situation is literally untenable and is only exacerbated with immigration since Muslim immigrants typically elect to settle in Muslim enclaves due to lack of affordable housing options elsewhere.

Islamization is not just some innocent process where people become more religious but is actually enforced through cruel social control at the expense of LGBTI people, women, girls, ex-Muslims and other non-Muslims. Europe must wake up and understand that Europeans (including particularly Muslim Europeans) are under threat from this malignant totalitarian cancer in our midst. It is surely time to put an end to this hapless policy paralysis and take effective measures to counter totalitarianism in contemporary Europe.

Saudi Arabia is Indispensable to the New Regional Security Architecture

Iran is engaged in a concerted military expansion of its military assets in the Middle East, including missiles and drones. The State of Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia are the two most important pillars in the emerging new regional security architecture in the Middle East in particular and in Islamdom at large. Yet, Saudi Arabia is deferring its normalization with Israel because of concessions it expects to get from the next Trump administration in return for normalizing with Israel, and which the Biden administration inexplicably refuses to provide. While this Saudi consideration is profoundly understandable as the American-Saudi relationship is critical to Saudi national security, it does not make sense in terms of countering the Iranian regional threat.

Contrary to what most observers seem to expect is an agreement in Vienna with Tehran highly unlikely for the simple reason that Iran is pretending to negotiate and is playing for time while racing towards the bomb. It is however possible that faux negotiations will continue even after the formal demise of the JCPOA as indeed envisioned by US Iran envoy Rob Malley whose not so secret goal since the Obama era is full alignment between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran. The JCPOA succeeded in breaking up the great power consensus on Iran and ending UN economic sanctions against Tehran. These Iranian achievements will no doubt remain in place. Rob Malley’s ambitions are however disconnected from the harsh realities of how the Khomeinist regime views the world at large and America in particular.

Saudi Arabia would be particularly well-advised to change its wait-and-see approach and opt for early normalization with Israel irrespective of American policy. The American political system has become so unstable that the United States can no longer be completely relied on by its Arab allies. This is an unfortunate reality, yet Arab nations have no alternative to aligning with Israel since China and Russia are already aligned with Iran. The Saudi game is based on an empty threat, realignment with China which no one believes will happen. The Saudi-Israeli-American triangular relationship is thus the best hope for reinvigorating the alliance between Riyadh and Washington.

It is quite urgent to build a new regional security architecture in the Middle East in particular and in Islamdom at large and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is an indispensable part of that. Regional powers are most likely miscalculating when assuming that there will be an agreement in Vienna. What we may see is rather an early military confrontation between Iran and its foes in the Middle East. It would be extremely unfortunate if the anti-Khomeinist side would not be properly prepared and integrated because of simple miscalcalculations since this would give Iran and its satellites a distinct advantage in such a conflict.

Iran plans a regional and global apocalyptic terror war in order to prompt the Hidden Imam to reappear and there is no doubt that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is on the Iranian list of target nations. Rather than myopically waiting to pocket American concessions while Iran prepares for war, the KSA needs to act as an independent nation and fully attach itself to the emerging Israel-led axis in the wider region. This is the best strategy for rehabilitating the image of the KSA in Congress and in Washington at large. It is sad and very strange that as the KSA has increasingly disassociated itself from Islamism has the American-Saudi relationship been increasingly undermined. One should of course have expected the reverse. By fully joining the Israel-led axis will it become possible for major American Jewish organizations to credibly engage in a concerted effort to restore the American-Saudi relationship, including explaining the liberalizing agenda of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Most Westerners just do not understand that liberalization in Saudi Arabia (including the ongoing enfranchisement of women) can only be done with an iron fist considering the overwhelmingly Islamist sentiment of its citizens. Once Saudi Arabia is firmly in the pro-Israel camp will it however be quite easy to rebrand KSA and MBS in Washington. 

Now that MBS is powerful enough to make the decision, he would be particularly well advised to prioritize Saudi national security. To send the signal that Riyadh keeps its Chinese option open is a mistake. Obviously like Israel, KSA needs to keep its Russian and Chinese strategic options open were it to be abandoned by Washington. However, to wield this threat in the face of American decision makers is a severe tactical mistake which makes the KSA look unreliable as an ally in American eyes. Rather, by aligning with the Israel-led axis, Riyadh is buying itself political insurance from being abandoned by Washington. 

No one knows how much time remains of the negotiations in Vienna despite them having been supposed to have ended in early February. Rob Malley is on the record as planning another process of negotiations beyond the JCPOA and it remains unclear whether Iran will agree to participate. Irrespective, MBS must not allow his kingdom to be held hostage to the whims of Rob Malley. To defer normalization with Israel for three years until Donald Trump and Jared Kushner return to the White House would be the height of irresponsibility considering the severity of the immediate threat posed by the Iranian axis to Saudi national security. Furthermore, Iranian threats to Saudi national security can no longer reasonably be separated from Iranian threats to others in the region. No one knows when the war between Iran and Israel will happen but if there is no agreement in Vienna, a war may break out as early as in the fall of 2022 after Israel and America destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program. What is clear however is that many nations are on Iran’s target list as perceived “enemies of Islam” (i.e. enemies of Khomeinism) and the KSA is no doubt one of them. 

What conclusions can be drawn so far from MBS’ years in power? He has proven to be a highly adept political operator in domestic politics in navigating his nation towards ever greater liberalization. MBS’ foreign and defense policy however, with all due respect (and I am writing this as a friend of the kingdom and an admirer of MBS) has not been particularly successful to put things mildly. While MBS undoubtedly is highly skilled at domestic politics, he remains a political novice in foreign and defense policy and needs to bring in a broader range of advisors. Furthermore, he would be particularly well-advised to consult with and coordinate with his friends in Jerusalem who no doubt will be happy to help out. MBS will quickly discover that Jews – contrary to Anti-Semitic defamation – are the most loyal people in the world. Jews in having experience from living in Diaspora for thousands of years have developed the pattern of being simultaneously loyal to their own nation and to other nations that are friendly towards the Jewish nation. This clear pattern remains in Israeli foreign policy and in the policies of major American Jewish Organizations such as the American Jewish Committee (AJC), the “State Department” of the American Jewish community. Israel is clearly more loyal to its friends among the nations than those nations are loyal to Israel and one reason for this is that Israel is so loyal to its friends among the nations that Israel is virtually taken for granted. 

There is tremendous potential to explore in the Saudi-Israeli-American triangular relationship. Once Saudi Arabia has followed in the path of Bahrain, UAE and Morocco will it be substantially easier for major American Jewish organizations to rehabilitate and rebrand the KSA in Washington. It is not that the willingness to do so does not exist already now, but rather that the task practically speaking will become extremely easier once MBS has made the strategic decision to no longer defer normalization with Israel and thus fully align KSA with the Israel-led axis in the broader Middle East.

The Foot-Dragging Must End

Unfortunately, the West does not want Ukraine to fully defeat Russia. Before the invasion was the universal assumption in the West that Ukraine was doomed and would only be able to survive through guerilla warfare. The heroic ZSU (Armed Forces of Ukraine) stunned an entire world in being able to hold back against the Russian invaders. Before the war did Germany even refuse to supply weapons to Ukraine but this quickly changed when the Germans saw how successful the Ukrainians were militarily. The West’s attitude is strongly influenced by postmodern military doctrine which assumes that the concept of victory is outdated as well as by conflict resolution literature with its bias for armed conflicts to have negotiated outcomes. This is similar to the international attitude against Israel which similarly does not believe in Israeli victory and is looking for a negotiated outcome which however neither side is sincerely interested in, each for their own realist reasons. The international community typically tries to end Israel’s wars before Israel attains victory and the same attitude is on display in Ukraine.

If Russia was interested in a negotiated outcome would it not have tried to conquer the entire Ukraine in the first place. While it is certainly true that recent Russian conquests in Ukraine have strengthened Moscow’s hand in negotiations with Kyiv, this is surely not the reason Russia launched this war in the first place. If that was the objective, then Russia could endorse an immediate ceasefire which they obviously will not despite the stalemate between the sides. The Kremlin launched this war on advice from the GRU because Russia needs to become a superpower in order to become able to defend Siberia against a future Chinese invasion and the only way to achieve that is to conquer Europe from Poland to Ireland. 

Why then does Moscow participate in peace talks with Kyiv? Russian intelligence is highly sophisticated and understands that the West seeks to contain the conflict. By disingenuously participating in peace talks with the Ukrainians are the Russians giving the West false hope that a negotiated outcome is possible and the successful Russian strategy is to dissuade the West from arming the Ukrainians other than with defensive weapons that have helped produce the current stalemate. The West on its part thinks its strategy is successful in helping hold back Russia while “negotiations” between Kyiv and Moscow are ongoing.

Contrary to the current perception by Western governments, this strategy is both dangerous and unsuccessful. A ZSU liberation of every inch of sovereign Ukrainian territory will not lead to WWIII, rather it will successfully avoid WWIII by persuading Russia that it cannot militarily defeat NATO. Victory in Ukraine is absolutely imperative for dissuading Russia from attacking NATO.

The ZSU will anyway in the end liberate all Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories, but refraining from arming Ukraine other than with anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, will cost Ukrainian civilians dearly in leading to a drawn-out conflict and immense and completely avoidable civilian suffering in Ukraine. Russia has no interest in a negotiated outcome as it started this war in order to conquer the entire Ukraine as the first step in its planned conquest of the entire Europe. By arming the Ukrainians with a wide range of sophisticated weaponry could the war be quickly decided and all Russian-occupied territories be far more rapidly liberated.

The foot-dragging on account of bizarre academic theories without connection to the current conflict must end and there must be a comprehensive arming of Ukraine. If the West is serious about preventing mass civilian suffering and ending this war, they must understand that this war will only end by the full liberation of all Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine.

Who is Right on Iran?

What are Iran’s intentions in Vienna? Non-Iranian intelligence agencies do not appear to know. Many weeks ago there was a flood of Israeli predictions of an imminent deal in Vienna but those fears have certainly not materialized and now even the Americans appear skeptical at the feasibility of a return to the JCPOA. I have argued all along that the Iranians are merely playing for time in order to advance their nuclear weapons program while appeasing Beijing and Moscow through pro forma participation in “negotiations”. While it is true that Ayatollah Khomeini instituted a state principle that Iranian national interests have precedence over sharia, this is a religiously motivated apocalyptic regime with fundamentally irrational motivations. The game theory notion that this totalitarian regime can be bought off through oil revenues for 3 years until Donald Trump returns to the White House and rescinds the agreement fundamentally misunderstands the Iranians. The Iranians are not fools and do understand that the Americans are trying to purchase time by buying them off for three years and the Iranians are not falling into this “trap”. The Iranians believe that they were deceived by the Americans when the Trump administration rescinded the JCPOA and have simply no interest in repeating this scenario. The Iranians are not of the view that their national honor is up for sale. The mullahs do understand that Joe Biden will not be reelected and so for them giving up their enriched uranium in return for three years of substantially increased oil revenues simply does not make sense. It may be a rude awakening for some but not everyone can be bought off with money. 

Of course rationally speaking, it makes perfect economic sense for Iran to return to the JCPOA but it would also make perfect economic sense for Iran to normalize economic and diplomatic relations with the United States and that is not about to happen either. Tehran clearly prioritizes accelerating its nuclear weapons program over temporarily increased oil revenues. As for trade and investments, Tehran is all too aware that the international private sector will not be interested in investing in or trading with Iran considering that American economic sanctions would be reinstated in only three years time. Then there is the apocalyptic imperative. The Khomeinist regime is longing for the apocalypse which they intend to bring about using weapons of mass destruction around the world. They believe that this man-made apocalypse will prompt the reappearance of the Hidden Imam and so the octogenarian Ayatollah Khamenei has every personal incentive to bring about this messianic event in his own lifetime. 

Put yourself in the shoes of the ruling mullahs. You believe that you have the power to bring about the coming of your long expected Messiah, why would you defer that event in return for money? It is important to understand that the Iranian nuclear weapons program has significantly advanced in the seven years that passed since the signing of the JCPOA. The Iranians believe that nuclear weapons are within reach and that no one will prevent them from developing a nuclear arsenal. The Iranians argue that if contrary to their expectations their nuclear weapons program is destroyed, then they will recognize this as a divine sign that it is time for the apocalypse and so they will lash out around the world with chemical and biological weapons against those nations Tehran deem to be central to the ostensible global Jewish-American conspiracy to destroy Islam.

Every week in the past months we have heard that the coming week will prove determinative in Vienna but it always comes to nought. I have argued that Israeli intelligence (particularly Aman) misjudges the intentions of Tehran in Vienna although I could of course still be proven wrong. There is a whole intelligence analysis culture in Aman of misjudging both Hezbollah and the Iranians and this is a big conceptzia (Hebrew for strategic error with devastating military consequences). Israel has long avoided confronting Hezbollah and will pay a particularly heavy price in vast numbers of killed Israeli civilians. Of course, the heaviest price will be paid by the American people whose current leaders recklessly undermined and single-handedly destroyed America’s deterrence vis-a-vis Iran through the futile Vienna negotiations which were always stillborn due to Iranian strategic rejectionism. Iran plans to perpetrate genocide with biological weapons against major American cities after Israel and/or the United States destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program. The Iranians are absolutely convinced that Allah is on their side and that the apocalypse is increasingly imminent, after all they determine the timing.

What takes place is highly convenient for the Iranians. Under the cover of “negotiations” can they advance their nuclear weapons program unhindered. Rather than militarily attacking the Iranian nuclear weapons program, the American government focuses on appeasing the Khomeinist regime. “Negotiations” effectively offer legitimacy for advancing the Iranian nuclear weapons program given that no American military action will be undertaken against the Iranian nuclear weapons program for as long as there is even a semblance of a horizon of “negotiations”.

What then you may ask is different now than in 2015 when the JCPOA was concluded? The JCPOA was successful from Iran’s perspective in breaking up international unity against Iran amongst the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and pivotally removing international sanctions against Iran. Notably, these achievements will remain in place even without a return to the JCPOA. Nevertheless, Iran felt it was cheated by the ostensible American-Jewish conspiracy when President Trump abrogated the JCPOA in 2018 and now when they believe that nuclear weapons are within reach, the mullahs are in no mood for deferring their nuclear weapons program.

In late 2021 US government officials repeatedly stated that negotiations would end by early February 2022 were there not to be an agreement for a return to the JCPOA before that. Now it is soon early April and American officials publicly acknowledge that a return to the JCPOA is neither certain nor imminent. The first question is of course for how long the Vienna charade will go on and the second question obviously is when the Iranians will enrich uranium up to weapons grade purity? There are no apparent answers to either question but what is obvious is that the Iranians are operating according to their own game plan and their own time schedule and the Americans are behaving exactly as the Iranians want them to at the same time as Tehran continues to masterfully manipulate Moscow and Beijing in appeasing both great powers in a carefully calibrated manner through pro forma participation in “negotiations”. The Iranians believe that President Biden is a useless fool who poses no danger to Iran and whose administration has issued empty threats that simply cannot be taken seriously. Irrational totalitarians are as many times before in modern history successfully manipulating international politics.

Why Russia does not Want to Change Course

Two decades ago, Vladimir Putin asked the West to allow Russia to become a member of NATO. This informal request was promptly rebuffed. What view does Russia take of the option of a US-led Asian defense alliance encircling China? For Russia this is primarily a question of lack of trust or to put it differently, Russia specifically does not believe in trust but in raw power. A defense alliance requires mutual trust and Russia apparently is far from convinced that the United States, India, Japan, Australia, Indonesia and others would actually fight China were Beijing to invade Siberia. Moscow understandably does not believe in putting its fate into the hands of others and so Russia seeks to once more become a superpower by conquering Europe from Poland to Ireland in order to become able to deter China from invading Siberia in the future. Yet, the thinking was apparently different two decades ago when Putin wanted Russia to join NATO.

What is the current thinking in the Kremlin, in Russian intelligence and in the Russian military leadership? There is a keen understanding that Russia has considerable time to realize its neo-imperialist project in Europe as China is in no haste to invade Siberia and an invasion is probably at least 20 years away. Of course Vladimir Putin is understandably extremely frustrated that his 2022 invasion of Ukraine did not go nearly as smoothly as previous irredentist “military operations”. The problem obviously for the Russian government is that they know that they are fighting for the survival of Mother Russia by preying on others and of course this is impossible to explain to the average man and so Russian conscripts literally have no idea what they are fighting for.

It is essential to understand that Russian decision makers live in an intellectual universe of extreme Realpolitik that is completely detached from any moral values. Yet it must certainly not be forgotten that there was a time when Russia was interested in aligning with the West. Of course Vladimir Putin is older and more experienced now but it would be a mistake to reduce this to the psychology of one person. The goal must be to coax Russia into a direction where it opts away from its imperialist plan of expansion in Europe and in order to do that must far more weapons of many different kinds be supplied to the Ukrainians and the European Union must make a strategic decision to build a unified European military. The sanctions regime against Russia unfortunately does nothing to influence the course of war in Ukraine, however the sanctions are now in place and must be used as leverage to coax Russia into a US-led Asian defense alliance encircling China.

Unfortunately, the Western sanctions regime against Russia has only reinforced Russian suspicions against the outside world, but as an Israeli citizen (I am a dual citizen of Sweden and Israel) I can certainly understand why Russia wants to be self-sufficient in defense and rely on no one for its defense.

All three neo-imperialist powers (Beijing, Moscow and Tehran) pose severe threats against international peace and security. All three must be dealt with. However different strategies are required. China must be contained and the Khomeinist empire must be imploded, yet Russia is a different case. On the one hand must Russia be militarily deterred from preying on Europe but on the other hand must every effort be made to coax Russia back into the international community and convince it to abandon its neo-imperialist ambitions in favor of accepting an Asian defense alliance that encircles China from all directions. Of course, it is absolutely essential for European deterrence to make sure that the ZSU (Armed Forces of Ukraine) successfully kicks out the Russian occupying army from Ukraine. This requires a far larger investment and commitment to arming Ukraine than is the case at present. The ZSU is certainly not the Afghan army and the ZSU is highly capable and able to effectively use weapons provided to it. The very future of Europe is at stake.

How Important is Russian Imperialism?

Russia remains stuck in the Ukrainian quagmire and now the Ukrainians are going on the offensive to retake Russian-occupied territories. Moscow however remains defiant in refusing to acknowledge defeat. It is abundantly clear that Russia’s astounding military failure is as much because of the incompetence, corruption and low morale of the Russian occupation forces as due to the motivation and skills of the Ukrainian defenders. Still, apparently President Putin is yet to internalize that the inept Russian forces are inherently incapable of realizing the Russian imperialist dream of conquering Europe from Poland to Ireland and whose strategic rationale is Russia’s very national survival in the face of Chinese designs for resource-rich, thinly populated parts of Russia. Only by once more becoming a superpower will Russia become militarily powerful enough to on its own resist Chinese designs for Siberia and other thinly populated parts of Russia. 

However, it must not be ignored that President Putin and Russian strategic planners are not solely motivated by national survival, but that imperialist expansion is an independent imperative in Russian strategic thinking. If and when President Putin realizes and internalizes that his forces are presently inherently incapable of conquering Europe, he is quite unlikely to back down on his imperial project in favor of a US-led Asian defense alliance encircling China. Rather, he will entrench his war economy, continue the war in Ukraine at any price and presumably defer European conquest until he has implemented comprehensive reform in the Russian military. From Putin’s perspective, the die is already cast and he will not back down now or in the future. Therefore, the Russians are only pretending to negotiate in the peace talks with Ukraine. Kyiv of course has an interest in participating for the sake of impressing the international community in maintaining the high level of international support for Ukraine and Jerusalem and Ankara have vested interests in mediating so as to legitimize their respective neutrality.

It is vital that European strategic planners draw the appropriate strategic lessons. The European Union member states must build a unified confederal military in merging the current national militaries or else we will sooner or later see WWIII in Europe. Those who want to avoid war must prepare for war. France has wisely for decades pushed for a confederal European military and the war in Ukraine and its Siberian motivations clearly show that the time has come for a unified European military. The EU has a population of 447 million and could potentially become a military superpower in dwarfing Russia with only 145 million. While European governments have always been reluctant to cede powers to Brussels and have historically only done so incrementally, the Russian imperialist threat requires a drastic decision on the part of European governments.

This is the time to decide in favor of a unified European military and engage in comprehensive rearmament in turning Europe into a military superpower capable of independently deterring Russia from launching WWIII. The current paralysis of European decision-makers surely must end. European governments would be particularly well-advised to wake up and expeditiously form a unified European military.

The West Should Hasten Ukraine’s Victory

The ZSU (Armed Forces of Ukraine) have exposed the Russian military as incompetent, corrupt and unmotivated. It is important to further demoralize the Russian side by hastening its defeat in Ukraine. While it is true that Russia has incrementally made tactical territorial gains, primarily in southern Ukraine, the ZSU has been winning strategically all along by increasingly strategically defeating the Russian war machine. 

Convincing Moscow that it cannot win in Ukraine is imperative because it will create an understanding in the Kremlin that Russia is unable to defeat Europe because of the miserable state of the Russian military forces. The war in Ukraine is merely the opening shot in an intended much larger military campaign to conquer Europe from Poland to Ireland. The purpose is to build up Russia as a superpower so that Moscow will be able to defend Mother Russia against the looming Chinese threat against Siberia. This threat of course is not imminent (it is most likely at least some 20 years away) and Moscow and Beijing are playing the friends game for now, each for their own reasons. However, by defeating Russia in Ukraine can Moscow be convinced that it must turn east and help form an Asian defense alliance with the United States that would encircle China and deter future Chinese territorial expansionism. 

Of course there is the clear and present danger that Russia will use a significant number of its tactical nuclear weapons to target military bases of NATO nations in Europe but even that cannot compensate for the ineptitude of the Russian conventional forces. The West needs to tell its defense industry to prepare for massive production funded by NATO governments. While the US government may not want to officially admit it, what we see in Ukraine is effectively a NATO proxy war with Russia as Ukrainian defenses are highly dependent on NATO nations delivering weapons that allow the ZSU to destroy large numbers of Russian tanks and aircraft.

The West needs to internalize that investing vast resources in arming the ZSU with sophisticated weaponry is a very effective policy in preventing WWIII in Europe. To proclaim that Ukraine’s cause is ours is not merely a nice thing to say but a concrete expression of national self-interest of Western nations. Ukraine’s survival as an independent nation and its ability to prevail in the war against Russia is directly connected to the determination of the question as to whether there will be a WWIII in Europe. If the Russian military leadership and President Putin can be convinced that its endeavor to conquer Europe will inevitably fail then we can surely avoid WWIII after all.

It is not enough to merely deliver weapons from existing military stockpiles of NATO nations, the Western defense industry needs to be prepared to mass produce weapons (including offensive ones) for the ZSU to be paid for by Western governments. Heavily arming the ZSU is an investment in Western national security, in the prevention of war and in the maintenance of peace. The sooner this is done the better. It is in the West’s interest that the war in Ukraine becomes as short as possible and the way to achieve that is by rapidly, heavily arming the ZSU with sophisticated weaponry of many different kinds. There is literally no time to waste unless we want to prolong this war with its immense human suffering.

China’s Planned Conquests

China is not only expansionist in an economic sense. Densely populated China is bordered by thinly populated vast territories rich in natural resources to its west and north which are completely irresistible to Han China. China is a highly sophisticated state which has learned the lesson of historical empires and Beijing knows the dangers of imperial overreach and premature expansion. The Han nationality encompasses the speakers of the various distinctive Sinitic languages who are artificially unified by the Chinese literary language. Han civilization has expanded for thousands of years through colonization of lands of neighboring peoples who were subsequently increasingly assimilated into Han civilization. This process never stopped. The current Chinese regime is involved in intense Han colonization of Inner Mongolia, Tibet and Xinjiang. There is no question that China has its eyes on thinly populated parts of Russia, Central Asia, parts of the Middle East reaching the Indian Ocean and the eastern shores of the Mediterranean sea as well as Australia and possibly even Canada and Greenland. 

However, China is very patient and in its current phase is focused on building its economic and military power. Only at a much later stage, when due to China’s economic power, it will become completely unthinkable to impose economic sanctions against China, will Beijing move to expand territorially. At that point will the size of the Chinese military be so gargantuan that the Chinese military will become completely invincible. Only then will China move to expand territorially. 

China is of course well aware of Russia’s desperate plan to to once more become a superpower by conquering Europe whereby Moscow hopes to become able to defend Siberia and Central Asia against Chinese territorial expansionism. Beijing obviously finds that amusing since China will itself choose the timing of its Siberian conquest and will only expand when it will be certain to defeat Russia.

The Janus-faced China pretends to be friends with Russia and Moscow plays along in taking advantage of the so-called “friendship”. It is peculiar that the two cynical great powers which incidentally do not believe in friendship in international relations have curiously declared “unlimited friendship” in between themselves. However, pretending to be “friends” is mutually advantageous for Beijing and Moscow, and China’s invasion of Siberia is anyhow decades away, probably at least 20 years. 

It is important to understand that Chinese expansionism operates as per an elaborate master plan which does not allow itself to be interrupted by day to day politics. Chinese strategic planning is extremely long-term and there is no question that China has learned from the failure of Nazi Germany in avoiding both imperial overreach and premature expansionism. So many empires have appeared and disappeared throughout history, yet China certainly intends to become the last empire in history and is bent on permanently dominating the entire world.

The US government would be particularly well-advised to craft a bi-partisan master plan for the coming fifty years. China will eventually catch up economically with the West and it is likely to happen sooner rather than later. This means that China will inevitably eclipse America as the hegemonic superpower unless America crafts an elaborate long-term counter-strategy. What is thus necessary is to create a democratic commonwealth of the entire free world. The entire democratic world needs to become one vast free-trade area in order to make it attractive for non-democracies to democratize to access this global free-trade zone. This democratic commonwealth will be demographically larger in size than China and America should become the spearhead of this commonwealth. Only this way will America be able to maintain its global hegemony. Furthermore, all members of the commonwealth must be ready to defend each other. What will be necessary is to build a nexus of militarily strong democratic powers, including a European Union with its own unified military. Only by remaining at the helm of such a powerful democratic commonwealth can America retain its hegemonic superpower status.

The Absence of US-Russian Diplomacy is Extremely Dangerous

The absence of diplomatic dialogue between the United States of America and the Russian Federation at a time when Europe is seriously threatened by WWIII and Russia plans to use tactical nuclear weapons to kick out the Americans from Europe in order to conquer Europe is profoundly dangerous. For President Biden to ratchet up the rhetoric and refer to President Putin as a “thug” effectively closes the door to diplomacy and is profoundly irresponsible and recklessly endangers the lives of American servicepersons in Europe and the lives of servicepersons of America’s NATO allies.

The Biden administration prides itself on prioritizing diplomacy but this does not appear to be the case vis-a-vis Russia where instead the American president engages in careless rhetoric which only guarantees that we tragically will not be able to avoid WWIII in Europe. President Biden is on the record of being afraid of WWIII with Russia and so it is highly peculiar that he is closing the very diplomatic avenues that could serve to prevent WWIII in Europe and the tragic loss of the lives of innumerable American servicepersons. Indeed, this is the time for diplomacy. There is a precious window of opportunity before Putin attacks Poland with tactical nuclear weapons and then invades the country leading to the subsequent Russian invasions of Germany, France and the United Kingdom. Yet, the leader of the free world appears asleep at the wheel in refusing to recognize that Russia’s motivations for invading Ukraine are not the slightest “thuggish” or otherwise irrational but are in fact completely rational as Russia must conquer Europe in order to become a superpower once more so as to become able to defend Siberia (and Central Asia) against a future Chinese military that will be several times larger than at present as conquering the resource-rich and thinly populated Siberia and Central Asia is completely irresistible for the perpetually colonizing Han China. No other rational explanation for the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been put forward and so it is essential to recognize that Russia remains a highly rational actor and not relying on misplaced pseudo-psychiatric demonizations of President Putin which are done by those who simply do not understand why the invasion was undertaken.

Rather, diplomacy is now absolutely imperative. Nevertheless, trying to resolve the Ukrainian question without simultaneously tackling the future Chinese threat against Siberia, by means of building an Asian defense alliance that would encircle China, will certainly not be successful and is absolutely futile. Russia’s new threat to cancel the diplomatic relations with the United States should be taken seriously as this is no doubt part of the preparation for war against NATO. Russia has only deployed a small part of its military in Ukraine in preparation for the larger battle against the United States and the rest of NATO. The Russian notification that they intend to break off diplomatic relations with the United States is deeply worrying as this strongly suggests that Russia does not intend to wait with invading Poland until they have conquered Ukraine. Conquering Ukraine first was most likely the original war plan but it turns out that in order to win in Ukraine, Russia will need to defeat NATO first. This is so as Russia realizes that NATO intends to fight a proxy war in Ukraine and Russia has no intention to play that game. Russia’s notification that it intends to sever its diplomatic relations with the United States thus suggests that the Russian invasion of Poland will not take place from Western Ukraine as originally intended by Moscow but rather from Belarus.

There is not much time left for American diplomacy to build an Asian defense alliance encircling China as Beijing is the real threat that threatens Siberia and Mother Russia at large in the long term. President Biden would be particularly well-advised to control his tongue in public and use all remaining diplomatic time to make every effort to avoid WWIII in Europe and WWIV in Asia.

Ukraine’s Offensive Capabilities Need be Strengthened

Russia’s plan to quickly overrun Ukraine was thwarted by the heroic ZSU (Armed Forces of Ukraine). Yet Russia has still been making incremental territorial gains and that is certainly deeply worrying. The arms provided by NATO nations to Ukraine have been defensive in nature in allowing the Ukrainians to destroy attacking Russian tanks and attacking Russian fighter aircraft. However, NATO nations must already now prepare for the final phase of the war, namely the liberation of all Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine, thus ending the conflict. NATO nations need to seriously look at how they can strengthen Ukrainian offensive capabilities and they urgently need to start planning for this now.