After Israel’s clinical operation in Jenin with minimal collateral damage did the PA as so many times before announce that it would end security cooperation with Israel. This put the State Department in a frenzy in “working the phones”. This begs the question: Is the Department of State unaware that while security cooperation is convenient for Israel, it is a matter of survival for the Palestinian Authority itself. The Palestinian Authority would not survive without security cooperation with Israel as Hamas would take control over Area A. Therefore any statement to the effect that the PA is “ending” security cooperation cannot be taken seriously. Sometimes American naivety regarding the Middle East seems boundless. I mean no disrespect, but how is it possible for professionals who are supposedly specialized in Middle Eastern affairs to be so ignorant?
The Sabbatean-controlled Derin Devlet deep state domestic intelligence apparatus is highly secretive and most likely does not maintain many diplomatic relationships with the outside world, if any indeed. The question still lingers however, does the Derin Devlet maintain a diplomatic relationship with Israel through Tevel, the Political Action and Liaison Department of the Mossad? This is a serious question considering the importance of regional coordination between Derin Devlet and Tevel. There should furthermore be much room for intelligence cooperation if this indeed does not already exist of course. In case the Derin Devlet does not already have a diplomatic relationship with Tevel, they would be particularly well-advised to establish one.
Israel’s counter-terrorism operations in Samaria have been described by UN officials as a perceived need for stopping an ostensible “cycle of violence”. US officials on their side make the case for what is described as “de-escalation”. The problem rather is the existence of Palestinian terrorism which must be preempted by Israel. If there are no preparations for terrorist attacks, then Israel will not have to preempt, it is as simple as that. Rather, the root cause is Palestinian Jihadist incitement to terrorism which permeates Palestinian society. It is the obligation of the Palestinian Authority to maintain order in Area A and disband armed groups and if they don’t perform so will Israel, make no mistake about it. Platitudes about an ostensible “cycle of violence” and of the need for purported “de-escalation” are completely irrelevant to the reality on the ground. The problem is the Palestinian Authority which cultivates a “culture of martyrdom” as a societal ideal for young people and furthermore does not maintain order. This illustrates that what Israel should do in case of a Republican president being elected in 2024, is to apply Israeli sovereignty to much of Judea and Samaria and wall in the remaining contiguous territorial island as Israel can only redeem and enfranchise the rest of Judea and Samaria once at least 10 million Median Jews have immigrated to Israel and that is still a long way off.
What are the reasons for Israel refraining from selling lethal weapons to Ukraine despite it clearly being in the interest of Israel that Russia is defeated and thus WWIII is avoided and China is contained? Because that much is at stake in the Ukraine war.
- Vladimir Putin is almost historically unique as a Russian leader who is not an Anti-Semite and Israel does not want Russia to perceive Israel as an enemy state.
- Israel knows that it is possible that an Anti-Semite can be elected president of the United States in the future and who would abandon Israel, it is therefore critical for Israel to cultivate China and Russia as potential allies and alternative patrons in the UN Security Council.
- Israel is not really concerned about the preservation of the aerial coordination with Russia over the skies of Syria as is often claimed since maintaining this is in the interests of both Jerusalem and Moscow. What is very much a concern however is that Russia will actively militarily participate on Syria’s side when Israel invades Syria in order to destroy Hezbollah and install the PYD in Damascus.
- Israel is concerned that Moscow might stop Jewish immigration to Israel from Russia as a punitive measure, although this is extremely unlikely under almost any circumstances.
In contrast to this fear-based policy in which Israeli weapons deliveries to Ukraine are given an exaggerated influence on cold, unemotional Russian geostrategic calculations, Israel should consider a different approach. After all, Russia has already abandoned Jerusalem as Israel is designated as part of the MENA region to be conquered by Iran under the new Russo-Iranian Molotov-Ribbentrop pact in which Russia in parallel conquers Europe. Surely, they must laugh in the Kremlin at the fears of Russian emotional reaction by the court Jew policy makers in Jerusalem who fear that the coldhearted Russian policymakers will be so primitive as to be vengeful! Instead, the Israelis should simply ask the Russians why it is legitimate for Russia to provide Iran with a modern air force while it is illegitimate for Israel to provide high tech weapons to Ukraine? Jerusalem should simply ask for reciprocity. If you halt weapons export to Iran, we promise not to export weapons to Ukraine.
Of course, it could be argued that weapons exports to Ukraine are simply an unnecessary risk for Israel which has little to gain. However, this is mistaken, Israeli military high tech could be instrumental in defeating Russia and thus avoiding WWIII, breaking up the new Russo-Iranian Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, bringing a defeated Russia into the American orbit (Russia needs to defend Siberia from Chinese expansionism) and and thus making sure that China is territorially contained from all directions so that it cannot conquer other nations, including Israel which is also on the Chinese list of nations to be conquered, in this case so as to reach the eastern Mediterranean. If and when Ukraine wins this war and the last Russian soldier is kicked out from the last inch of occupied territory, the big winner will be the United States which will have contained China and prevented both WWIII in Europe and the MENA region and a Chinese WWIV of aggressive global conquest. If this is not an Israeli interest, then I don’t know what is? This will preserve relations with Moscow and Beijing and maintain them as reserve allies rather than turning them into enemies while maintaining American global supremacy.
Kuwait, Oman and Qatar maintain policies of neutrality while benefiting from covert defense cooperation with Israel. However, they should have no illusions regarding Iran’s intention to conquer them as well. In fact, it will be pivotal for those three nations to join a MENA defense alliance. Staying neutral would be delusional.
Algeria is currently bent on not joining the normalization bandwagon. However, the apparent existence of a Russo-Iranian new Molotov-Ribbentrop pact whereby Moscow gets the entire Europe and Tehran gets the entire Arab world should make Algiers rethink its entire approach. Iran is absolutely intent on conquering all Arab countries, including Algeria; and Israel as the regional great power is pivotal for defending the MENA region from any Iranian onslaught. Algeria must prioritize its own defense and thus deprioritize the Palestinian and West Saharan issues and reconcile and realign with Morocco and Israel. Every sensible government surely must prioritize national survival. A MENA defense alliance is absolutely necessary and for Algeria to not join would be tantamount to seeking national suicide.
Arab governments are for the most part profoundly suspicious of each other yet nowadays quite trusting of Israel in many respects. This is the crux of forming a Middle Eastern defense alliance. Arab governments don’t mind secretly aligning with Israel but balk at aligning with each other. The problem in military terms is that Iran is betting on an Arab domino effect whereby Iran can pick off one major Arab country after the other from east to west. What is necessary rather is that all Arab members of a Middle East defense alliance dispatch much of their military forces to Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states once it is clear that war will break out or once war has unexpectedly broken out. Picking off one major Arab country one by one is very convenient for the Iranians and their goal is clear: to reach the Atlantic Ocean. It is crucial that Iran is stopped already in Saudi Arabia and this requires major Arab redeployment there once war is looming or has already broken out by surprise. There is a need for very close strategic and tactical coordination within a predominantly Arab Middle Eastern defense alliance in which Israel, the US and possibly Turkey and Azerbaijan would also be members. There is furthermore the possibility that Iran will bypass the Gulf states and instead invade Jordan through Iraq. Of course Israel is highly strategic as it is the bottleneck to North Africa, yet it is crucial for all threatened MENA states that an Iranian invasion is halted in its tracks. Yes, America needs to commit to membership in a Middle Eastern defense alliance alongside Israel, yet this must be conditional on Arab states genuinely committing to stopping an Iranian invasion at the earliest possible temporal and spatial stage.
The Swedish government’s fawning for President Erdogan obviously isn’t appreciated in Ankara and the Swedes appear clueless as to why. The reality is that Turkey is part of the Middle East and in the Middle East showing weakness and obsequiousness simply is not appreciated, only strength is. If Sweden had wanted to impress Ankara they should have offered to export some advanced weapons systems to Turkey in return for NATO accession. Last year on this blog I suggested a quid pro quo whereby Israel intervenes with the Sabbatean-controlled Derin Devlet to facilitate Swedish and Finnish NATO accession and Sweden and Finland in return recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and move their embassies there from Tel Aviv. Because the Derin Devlet is the only player in Turkey able to break the deadlock and eventually override the military deep state’s veto on NATO accession. This is simply not in Erdogan’s power and so flattering him won’t help. He is just not as powerful as he wants to appear. Most of the time he is a mere puppet and mouthpiece for his three masters: 1) MBI (Muslim Brotherhood Intelligence), 2) the military deep state and 3) the Sabbatean-controlled Derin Devlet. It’s really a political art to know for whom he is speaking at what particular moment. In essence, he is a mere actor and a highly skilled one at that.
Liberal democracy is not possible in a country where at best a very narrow majority wants it and where the rest vote with Islamist parties. That is the current reality in Turkey which has had free and fair elections since the 1950s, yet has never elected a pro-democratic majority. Considering that Aliyah from Turkey will be slow and most likely will take place during the course of up to thirty years before the country is emptied of Median Jews who make up approximately 25% of the population, the reality is that the pro-democratic proportion of the population will be ever-shrinking. What kind of political system is needed in Turkey during the next thirty years? One distinct possibility would be to return to a CHP one-party state with Kemal Kilicdaroglu as dictator but with Kurdish rights. One thing is certain and that is that the Sabbatean-controlled Derin Devlet needs to take firm control over the government and it would therefore be wise to retain the presidential system. As long as there are millions of Median Jews left in Turkey it is not enough for the Derin Devlet to influence the government, it must control it and the dictator ought to be a Median Jew himself/herself/themself. How should Turkey’s shrinking demographics be addressed then? Very simple, Turkey should accept refugees fleeing from other nations to demographically compensate for the 20 million Median Jews who will leave for Israel.
Last year in a post on this blog did I endorse Kemal Kilicdaroglu as the opposition candidate for president of Turkey in the 2023 presidential elections. Let me now provide a more nuanced position. I support the candidate that is best for Aliyah, that is my position. Before writing that blog post I was unaware that many Muslims would refrain from voting for Kilicdaroglu merely because he is an Alevi. After reading that, I bit my tongue. I still thought it would be ideal to have an Alevi president in Turkey but removing Erdogan from power is paramount and does not Ekrem Imamoglu have a better chance of beating Erdogan in the second round? And is Mansur Yavas really a reliable person considering his background in the MHP? Then of course there is the question of the military deep state (not to be confused with the Sabbatean-controlled Derin Devlet deep state domestic intelligence apparatus) which may not look favorably at the prospect of 25% of Turkey’s population emigrating to Israel? So perhaps it is safer and yes even necessary to have an Alevi president to ensure that Bektashi Sabbateans and other Median Jews can emigrate to Israel?
According to Iran’s regime ideology is America, Tehran’s main enemy. The reason this is so as for all Islamist ideologists is that the American superpower is considered identical with the purported global Jewish conspiracy to destroy Islam. The Obama and Biden administrations have pursued a strategy of appeasing Iran and hoping to eventually align with the mullah regime. This was never going to work due to the regime’s foundational Anti-Semitic, Anti-American ideology. One might think from the regime’s rhetoric that Israel is Iran’s main enemy but that is not the case as Israel is regarded as a mere tentacle on the perceived American-Jewish octopus. Iranian leaders openly say that “death to America will happen” which they believe will lead to the reappearance of the Hidden Imam. Tehran has the means of delivery (Iranian submarines+American leisure boats+networks of sleeper agents) of biological weapons in major American cities and there is little the FBI can do to prevent it. If Iran had nuclear weapons then America could not even strike back. The illegal influence machine of Muslim Brotherhood Intelligence (MBI) in Washington has for years spread the patently false idea that it is possible for the United States to reconcile with the mullah regime and even align with the mullahs. This was never possible and only meant to harm KSA-USA relations due to the Muslim Brotherhood having been listed as a terrorist organization in Saudi Arabia. The notion that diplomacy could persuade a profoundly ideological theocratic regime to abandon its own regime ideology is naive at best, borders on the delusional and one must surely raise the question if Rob Malley is an MBI agent of influence? Apparently the only thing missing for there to be a Saudi-Israeli peace treaty is for the Biden administration to abandon this counterproductive strategy. Quite understandably, the Saudis are extremely uncomfortable living under an American threat to abandon them in favor of the mullahs, after all who would be comfortable with that? The KSA-USA alliance clearly needs to be reconfirmed and the dead-on-arrival mullahphilia strategy abandoned.
Iran regards the sole threat to its territory as coming from the Persian Gulf; i.e. from a US-led naval invasion of Iran and is actively training to counter this perceived threat. However, on the face of it, this seems utterly implausible in the extreme. Why would the United States want to get entangled in yet another land war in the Middle East, this time in a far larger and far more populous country with a difficult and mountainous topography? The obvious answer is that the US government does not want that under almost any circumstances since it is a nightmare scenario and the mission is so difficult that it would take at least a year to conquer Iran.
Why then is this “nightmare scenario” so realistic to the Iranian regime? Because they and no one else are able to provoke it by means of using biological weapons against major American cities. The first response of the US would be to implement a no-fly zone over the entire Iran, bomb police and IRGC facilities and provide air support to insurgents. This is extremely likely to bring out most of the adult population into the streets for major revolution and will in all likelihood result in the downfall of the regime although the regime does not believe so. However, if this contrary to all expectations does not materialize and the regime does not fall then the US will have no choice but to liberate Iran as beginning with a naval invasion.
You may wonder why Iran would attack major American cities with biological weapons if this is certain to lead to the downfall of the Iranian regime? The answer is that Iran’s clerical leaders wish to provoke the Hidden Imam to reappear while Iran is still a regional great power and it will only be one as long as Iranian oil is exported to other nations.
The reality is that the ruling mullahs are living with the sword against the neck and the name of that sword is Tesla and the sword is held by Elon Musk. The mullahs know that oil will be phased at some point in the foreseeable future and then Iran will become destitute and powerless. They understand that control over Arabian oil is key to global hegemony for as long as oil is exported. Therefore, Iran cannot indefinitely defer its planned apocalyptic war crucially meant to bring about the reappearance of the Hidden Imam. Yet, Iranian theo-strategists understand that this may even so fail and the Hidden Imam might not reappear after all despite the engineered global apocalypse and so Iran must hence prepare to defend itself against a US-led naval invasion. Of course, the mullahs do not regard this as the end of their regime as they plan to fight a guerrilla war taliban-style until they have retaken power in all of Iran. However, it must never be ignored that engineering the reappearance of the Hidden Imam is the very raison d’être of the Khomeinist regime. Their Plan A is developing a nuclear arsenal and to thus gain impunity and immunity from any attack and invasion and then launch their global apocalyptic terror war with weapons of mass destruction. They have a Plan B global WMD apocalypse however for the scenario of their nuclear program becoming neutralized by Israel and the USA. This is why they are training to prepare to counter a US-led invasion.
When Russia invaded Ukraine eleven months ago did no one outside of Ukraine expect that the Ukrainians would be able to withstand the onslaught. However, they did and bravely so. Once the West realized that the Ukrainians were capable of defending themselves was the Western presumption that the West should help Ukraine with defensive capabilities but not with offensive ones. All along, the erroneous assumption was that this would eventually lead to a stalemate, a ceasefire and peace negotiations. It is clear that neither of the two sides is interested in a ceasefire; Ukrainian offensives are successful, Russian ones are certainly not. The West has already shifted paradigm once on Ukraine, now it is time to shift paradigm a second time and arm Ukraine offensively. This should include commence training Ukrainian pilots for F-16 fighter aircrafts. True, it will take two years before they are ready for the cockpit, but let’s be realistic, at this pace this war will probably go on for up to five years more. What the West can do however to alleviate civilian suffering is to substantially shorten this war by arming Ukraine with offensive capabilities. This war will end when the last Russian soldier has been kicked out from the last inch of occupied Ukrainian territory. Furthermore, this will force Moscow to abandon its strategy of becoming a superpower by conquering Europe and instead align with the United States and its Asian allies against China which covets Siberia and the rest of Russia as part of its long term plan for territorial expansion and Han colonization.
Russia’s offensive in Ukraine shows no signs of progress and now we once more hear those tired threats of nuclear war. There is also the official Russian rhetoric according to which losing the war in Ukraine would pose an existential threat against Russia. What’s behind all that? The only existential threat against Russia, indeed the only threat against Russia comes from China which in the long term plans to conquer Siberia and the rest of Russia. In 20 years time will China be many times militarily stronger than Russia unless Moscow becomes a superpower once more by conquering Europe. Tactical nuclear weapons will not help Russia win a war with NATO unless it also has the conventional military capacity to conquer Europe which it currently does not. Western decision makers would therefore be particularly well-advised to completely disregard the Russian rhetoric about nuclear warfare as indeed baseless psychological warfare. The truth is rather that Moscow once expelled from Ukraine will face the choice of a change of strategy away from conquest of Europe to realignment with the West and its Asian allies against China. The sooner Russia is expelled from Ukraine, the faster will Moscow face this choice and Moscow will enter into alignment with the United States.
Russia plans to deliver a new air force to Iran and Iran is delivering kamikaze drones to Russia. That is what is known about the extent of the military relationship between Iran and Russia which has obviously reached a strategic level. Both nations are militarily adventurous and plan big conquests which they however at this point are unable to carry out. Nevertheless, they plan for the future and hence the new Molotov-Ribbentrop pact which at this point involves mutually helping improve each other’s militaries and only later involves simultaneous invasions westward; Russian conquest of Europe and Iranian conquest of the Arab world. However, the cooperation and sharing of technology and knowhow between Tehran and Moscow is undoubtedly far more extensive than what is presently known. Russia and Iran are planning WWIII and it will most likely happen within the next ten years or so. This shows the urgency for a US-Israeli-Arab defense alliance. It is time to wake up and arm and train the Arab world.
Successive Israeli governments have since 1967 presumed that it is not in Israel’s interest to restore Jewish rights on the Temple Mount. The issue has consistently been regarded as one of religion, nostalgia, sentimentalism and even messianism. The view consistently taken has been that the Israeli national interest requires maintaining the status quo. However, the problem is that every Arab government believes that this is mere posturing giving cover to a hidden agenda amounting to a Jewish conspiracy to build a Third Temple. Almost every person in the Arab world believes in this canard. The more Israeli governments insist on protecting the status quo, the more Israel is suspected by the Arabs. The reason is simple. Israel’s behavior appears incomprehensible, if the Arabs were in the Jews’ place they would surely not hesitate to build a Third Temple. This is why Israel’s behavior appears profoundly suspicious.
What I am suggesting is not building a Third Temple but certainly performing comprehensive archaeological excavations on the mount and subsequently building synagogues there. No Muslim state is interested in religious war with Israel and the Palestinians although always keen to foment religious war have consistently failed to provoke one. Would archaeological excavations on the Temple Mount lead to a Third Intifada? Not unless the Palestinian Authority wants one and they certainly don’t as they are set to gain precisely nothing.
Rather, Israel should excavate the Mount, build several synagogues there and legislate the new situation on the Temple Mount in a Basic Law. This would constitutionally protect both Muslim and Jewish rights on the Temple Mount. The Basic law would furthermore state that the Third Temple would not be built until the arrival of the Mashiach (messiah). There should be one Sephardi-Mizrahi Orthodox synagogue, one Ashkenazi Orthodox synagogue, one Yemeni Orthodox synagogue and one egalitarian non-denominational synagogue. All this should be anchored in the Basic law. Furthermore should the inviolable status of al-Aqsa mosque and the Dome of the Rock until the arrival of the Mashiach be anchored in the Basic law.
While this is bound to lead to intense diplomatic condemnations, this will also clear up the atmosphere between Israel and the Arab world since this will clarify Israel’s intentions. Contrary to what Israeli policy makers tend to assume, will Arab governments in the end not be unhappy since Muslim rights will be constitutionally protected and there will be no Third Temple with animal sacrifice since no supernatural messiah will ever arrive.
It has become clear that behind the mutual arming between Iran and Russia is a new Molotov-Ribbentrop pact. Russia gets the entire Europe and Iran gets the entire Arab world, including Israel. Putin’s decision of course is not motivated by hostility against Israel, it is simply realpolitik. It makes sense to tie up American forces on a second southern front so as to weaken the northern front in Europe. This is simply a military strategy, plain and simple. The very same logic makes sense for Khomeinist Iran but in reverse. This does not mean of course that Israel will fight Russia in Europe or that Russia will fight Israel in the Middle East, but as battle lines are drawn there are no more reasons left for Israel not to arm Ukraine. After all, if Moscow arms Tehran, then why should Jerusalem not arm Kyiv? As we gear up for WWIII we know exactly who is in which camp. There is no more room for ambiguity. On the contrary, it is absolutely in Israel’s interest to prevent WWIII by making sure that Ukraine prevails against Russia.
Japan played a vital role in spreading economic development to Asia. Economic development spread from Japan to the so-called Asian Tigers (South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore) and later to the rest of Asia. The Israeli economy is so dynamic that we could see a comparable although not identical pattern of dynamically spreading economic development in the MENA region. Furthermore, many Israeli Jews have family origins in other MENA countries and those are important soft power assets for those other nations to capitalize on in bringing Israeli business and later European business as well. There is thus tremendous economic potential in normalization for MENA nations and especially for a country like Tunisia.
The new Israeli government is committed – under the right conditions – to incorporate parts of Judea and Samaria into Israel proper. This most likely means that the Netanyahu government will wait and see if a Republican president is elected in the United States in November 2024 before deciding on applying Israeli sovereignty to parts of Judea and Samaria. There are many advantages with incorporation of parts of Judea and Samaria into sovereign Israel.
- It will be exposed to the entire world that the Israeli indigenous communities of Judea and Samaria were not randomly put in place but are rather part of an elaborate plan and map. This will make it significantly easier to publicly defend the immense security value of the Israeli indigenous communities of Judea and Samaria.
- The new borders are not final since Israel will redeem and enfranchise the rest of Judea and Samaria once at least 10 million Median Jews have immigrated to Israel. Applying sovereignty to parts of Judea and Samaria does not mean that Israel will relinquish its claims to the rest of Judea and Samaria.
- Incorporation will legally permit the Israeli government to expropriate large tracts of privately owned land with financial compensation provided in areas where Israel has applied sovereignty.
- Israel will build a security fence on its new borders.
- Palestinian residents in incorporated areas will be afforded full citizen rights as part of extended Israel.
- There will be much less Israeli involvement in the non-incorporated areas of Judea and Samaria in the transitional years until a sufficient number of Median Jews have immigrated to Israel.
- Palestinians in the rest of Judea and Samaria will be envious of those Palestinians who live in areas where Israel has applied sovereignty, thus paving the way for the eventual incorporation of the rest of Judea and Samaria.
What is the story of the Palestinians? At the end of the 19th century the Holy Land was thinly populated with a population of no more than 600 000. The Palestinian nationalist movement together with their Arab allies in the region effectively forced the British to all but shut the gates to Jewish immigration to British Palestine in 1939 and thus sealed the fate of European Jewry and since no escape route was left for the Jews, Hitler decided in favor of extermination. Zionist leaders obviously did neither forget nor forgive the Palestinian movement for this stab in the back at the most critical hour for the Jewish people. There could have been a one-state solution in a bilingual state with a Jewish majority and no Holocaust in Europe. Subsequently the Palestinian and other Arab leaders opted in 1947 for a war of extermination and so the Jewish forces had no choice but to make sure that Palestinian villages fighting on the side of the genocidal enemy left the country, otherwise the Jews would have been subjected to a Second Holocaust. Ever since the Palestinians have been fighting to dispossess and exterminate the Jews under the nominal hypocritical yet never adhered to banners of “justice” and “human rights”. According to Palestinian nationalism, the Palestinians are the victims despite not exactly hiding their own malign agenda and refusing to learn from their historical mistakes, including the genocidal war of 1947.
Why the diplomatic uproar about Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s visit to the Temple Mount? From the Arab perspective, Ben-Gvir’s visit is just the first step towards building the Third Temple and so the Arab nations are desperately trying to stop his visits. However, they do believe that the building of the Third Temple is almost inevitable as they believe that the Israelis are determined to build the Third Temple. Arab governments are doing what they can to diplomatically deter the Israeli government from implementing what they universally believe is the Israeli conspiracy to build the Third Temple. At the same time is there tremendous interest in normalization with Netanyahu’s Israel among Muslim nations despite these fatalistic conspiratorial beliefs. In other words, each nation puts their own interests first and in reality Arab nations are rather resigned to what they believe is the almost inevitable building of the Third Temple.
The notion that events on the Temple Mount, specifically, unexpected body movements by Jews there and more broadly hypothetical Israeli reassertion of Jewish rights on the Mount would trigger a religious war is completely baseless. This old scarecrow is complete and utter nonsense. Could anyone please describe a real and detailed realistic scenario? No one can, of course. No Muslim government wants this with the possible exception of the Hamas regime in Gaza but even that is doubtful since Hamas has matured and become “normal” in the sense of now being primarily concerned about the perpetuation of its own regime. So no government would wage a religious war, but perhaps the peoples would without the consent of their governments? Really, who is afraid of demonstrations and stone-throwing? The same old as always and the PA firmly controls the popular Intifada-machine in Judea and Samaria. Would popular Islamist sentiments bring down Muslim governments such as the Jordanian monarchy? Why? These governments are sensitive to the point of hysteria and publicly so to any Jewish body movement on the Temple Mount. It is time for this old scarecrow to get a proper burial. Yes, Palestinian terrorists instigate disturbances from time to time in response to their own Anti-Jewish conspiracy theories but this must surely not be blamed on the Jews.
Are Muslims really wild animals who go on killing sprees murdering “infidels” for no reason at all? That seems to be the view of the so-called “international community” which believes that the apocalypse will commence if an Israeli cabinet minister visits the Temple Mount, the holiest place in Judaism. They should be reminded that the Second Intifada was pre-planned by Palestinian leaders and Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s visit to the Temple Mount in the year 2000 served as a mere convenient excuse for unleashing the havoc. As expected absolutely nothing happened subsequent to National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s surprise visit. It would however have been dangerous to delay and reschedule the visit, THAT would have incentivized violence just as the American-advised rerouting of the Jerusalem Flag march a few years ago constituted dangerous appeasement which led to war between Israel and Gaza. Please stop insinuating that Muslims are dangerous, primitive barbarians. That is simply not accurate.
Turkey occupies parts of northern Syria including what was the predominantly Kurdish Afrin (Kurdish: Efrin) region. The Kurdish population was largely expelled and much of their olive trees have been cut down. Turkey as the aggressor and occupying power operates a settlement program funded by Gulf states to Arabize the region and settle it with ethnically Arab Syrian refugees originating elsewhere in Syria. Interestingly enough, no one appears to have any problem with organized settlement activity in territories considered occupied there or elsewhere (i.e. Northern Cyprus and West Sahara although I personally recognize West Sahara as part of Morocco.) It is when the Jews return to their indigenous Judea that there is an international uproar. If an Israeli Jew lives in Hebron (the second most sacred city in Judaism with the oldest Jewish community in the world) he is branded a “settler” but if an Israeli of another religion (Muslim, Christian or Druze) resides in Hebron he is not considered a settler by anyone. There is no question that the term settler in a contemporary context has become a synonym and slur for Jew. We should all be grateful that nearly half a million Jews live in Judea and Samaria or else it would be the Jews in internationally recognized Israel who would be universally stereotyped as “settlers”, an indigenous people that have the chutzpah to return to their own indigenous homeland.
Germany during the Nazi period was once a genocidal nation and what is known as the Palestinian people (which is a historically recent colonial construction) have developed into something far worse. I am not arguing that the Palestinians are committing a Second Holocaust but rather that they intensely desire and intend to perpetrate one. Never in Nazi Germany did Anti-Semitic incitement go as far as publicly calling for the killing of Jews. In the Palestinian Authority they have a law on their books that states that any Palestinian who kills a Jew is entitled to a lifelong salary. Anti-Semitism and incitement to kill Jews permeate Palestinian media and education. Jihadism and the cult of prospective martyrdom has been mainstreamed in Palestinian society. Nearly all the ingredients for genocide are already in place and the only component missing is the actual ability to carry out genocide once more against the Jewish people. Israeli information strategies need to far more emphasize that the might of the IDF and the existence of the so-called “settlements” are the only things that prevent this severely sick society (and yes German society was also severely sick during the Nazi period) from realizing its deranged ambitions.
What is the proper way to respond to the international hysteria following upon National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s peaceful visit to the Temple Mount? Minister Ben-Gvir would be particularly well-advised to visit the Mount with increased frequency until the international community internalizes that nothing and nobody will prevent Jews from ascending to the holiest site in Judaism. Just like this time should each visit be a surprise so that the terrorists are not given the opportunity to prepare riots on the Mount and throw stones down onto Jews praying below at the Western Wall. Eventually will the hysterical international community get used to Ben-Gvir’s long since established habit of regularly visiting the Temple Mount.
Israeli state strategists have treated the issue of the Temple Mount as a mere sentimental and religious one. This has also been the line promoted by national-religious advocates of reappropriation of Jewish heritage and Jewish rights on the Mount. For Palestinian strategists in contrast is this a matter of immense strategic importance. For Palestinian strategists this is a battle for the heart of the entire land. Why the differing conceptions? Israeli geostrategists have been content with exercising sovereignty over the Temple Mount as part of unified Jerusalem and have consistently dismissed those Jews who for religious and sentimental reasons wish to reassert Jewish rights on the Mount. They need to think again. Israel is not located in Scandinavia and its neighbors are imbued with honor culture. In order to impress them and gain their trust you have to play by their cultural rules. It is not merely sufficient to respect their honor, it is even more important to respect your own honor and the Israelis are not doing that on the Temple Mount and have not been doing so since 1967.
The Israelis are clueless. After all, Israel respects the Ottoman status quo and has not asserted Jewish rights on the Mount. So why are the Palestinians (completely unsuccessfully so shall I add) instigating religious war from the Mount? And why do Arab governments believe in Palestinian propaganda that Israel plans to reassert Jewish rights on the Temple Mount? Because it is a matter of honor and the Arab governments make the mistake of assuming that Israeli strategists think like them, i.e. in their mind if they were Israeli Jews they would definitely reassert Jewish rights on the Mount and they simply cannot comprehend why Israel is not doing that and thus they suspect hidden intentions, a conspiracy and “dark plans”.
It is of course true that Zionism and the State of Israel have prevailed due to behaving in a coolheaded and rational fashion. Israel did not establish the indigenous Israeli communities of Judea and Samaria for religious or sentimental reasons but this was part of redrawing the demographic map so as to allow incorporation of part or the entire Judea and Samaria depending on the eventual demographic situation. In either case would all indigenous Israeli communities become part of Israel as illustrated by the Kushner map. The Oslo Accords was not a foolish leftwing dive into the unknown but a carefully calculated Israeli strategic operation to establish a Palestinian autonomy for decades to come, albeit not permanently so. Similarly is Israeli policy on the Mount driven by no doubt predominantly secular, male Ashkenazi state strategists who believe it is in Israel’s interest to maintain the status quo.
They are of course right not to act out of nostalgia, sentimentality or religion in asserting a purely interest-based approach. However, the conclusion of the strategic calculus is fundamentally wrong. What would happen if Israel performed archaeological excavations and built synagogues on the Mount? There would be international protestations of course and some local stone-throwing but aside from that nothing, just the normal routine of the conflict. I challenge Israeli state strategists to mention one sovereign state that would wage religious war on Israel in response. Not even Iran would. Perhaps Gaza would but Hezbollah certainly would not without an OK from Tehran so that won’t happen. Muslim nations that maintain diplomatic ties with Israel do so out of their own interests and only for this reason. In any case, they maintain diplomatic relations with Israel despite believing that Israel will reassert Jewish rights on the Temple Mount. So they believe that this is only a matter of time anyway so they have already accepted this as a future reality although they are doing everything in their power – in their mind – “to prevent it”.
Israel is not part of Scandinavia but rather part and parcel of the Middle East and Islamdom and so while initially reasserting Jewish rights on the Mount would no doubt cause anger, this is bound to lead to respect for Jews and Israelis. Anyway, everyone is convinced that this will happen and Muslim countries are even so lining up to normalize relations with Netanyahu’s Israel. You may wonder why Muslim countries are more keen to normalize relations with the Netanyahu government than with the previous Bennett-Lapid government? The three extremist Religious-Zionist parties in the coalition government are surprisingly not seen in a negative light by Arab governments, rather they seem normal and honest in terms of regional honor culture. There is also the personal issue of Benjamin Netanyahu who is widely trusted and appreciated as a man of honor by Arab leaders. Furthermore, the previous government was not trusted because it included the Muslim Brotherhood as one of eight parties.
Am I accusing Arabs of fantasizing about Israel? Yes, but the West and pretty much everyone else is fantasizing about Israel. Everyone projects their own culture onto others in expecting others to act like themselves. This is universal.
Restoration of Jewish rights on the Temple Mount while respecting Muslim rights means performing archaeological excavations and building synagogues but certainly not building a Third Temple with animal sacrifice in the place of the magnificent Dome of the Rock. Nothing bad will happen despite the horror stories and fairy tales about religious war. If the Palestinians were capable of launching a religious war between Israel and Islamdom they would of course already have done so and it is not for lack of trying. The Jordanian monarchy has no interest in war with Israel (Jordan would promptly lose such a war). The Palestinian Authority is primarily interested in perpetuation of its own regime and therefore does not want an Intifada which would only bring disaster to the Palestinians themselves, just like the previous intifadas.
Restoration of Jewish rights on the Temple Mount while respecting Muslim rights is a strategic imperative and will help bring victory in the conflict with the Palestinians. It is true that building a Third Temple would be even better from a strategic perspective but removing the Dome of the Rock would be unconscionable since this is a precious part of world heritage. It is also true that deporting the Palestinians from Judea and Samaria would be strategically preferable but that too is unconscionable unless it becomes necessary in order to prevent genocide against the Jews.
Israeli state strategists are no doubt mostly male, Ashkenazi and secular. For them the Temple Mount is mere real estate like any other real estate in Jerusalem. They have overlooked the strategic-symbolic value of a permanent Jewish presence on the Temple Mount in terms of persuading the Islamic world that Israel is here to stay.
The question must really be asked, what is the most outrageous from the perspective of the international community, building indigenous Israeli communities in Judea and Samaria or excavating the ground and building synagogues on the Temple Mount? Of course it is the former. The latter would certainly in no way harm al-Aqsa mosque and the Dome of the Rock.
Would archaeological digs on the Temple Mount and the construction of synagogues on parts of the Temple Mount plaza harm normalization with Muslim nations? No, because genuine normalization is based on mutual respect, including recognizing Jewish history and Jewish heritage on the mount. Muslim nations establish official relations with Israel not because they have suddenly become Zionists but to promote their own interests and this will not stop.
Israel maintains the status quo simply because Israeli strategists mistakenly believe that this best serves Israel’s interests. If Israeli strategists recognized the value in establishing a permanent Jewish presence on the mount, then one would surely be established without any undue delay.
No Israeli government ever had any intention to change the status quo on the Temple Mount. But since no one but Israel cares about the status quo and everyone else is promoting exclusivist Muslim rights is there no reason why Israel should care about the status quo either.
What is the incitement about “al-Aqsa is in danger” about? It is simply about deterrence. Arab governments sincerely believe that the Israeli state plans to realize Jewish rights on the Temple Mount plaza because they would if they were in the Jews’ place and they do believe that the only way to prevent that is to continue to frighten the Jews. The Arab theory is thus that the Jews refrain from realizing Jewish rights on the Mount out of fear of massive Arab violence. The Arabs are of course bluffing since resorting to massive violence would undermine their own regimes.
The Arabs cannot fathom that Jews respect Muslim rights more than Jewish rights on the Mount. Furthermore, it was traditionally the dominant halakhic position even among Modern Orthodox Jews that it is religiously forbidden for Jews to ascend to the Mount. Only in recent decades has this position shifted among Modern Orthodox Jews and Religious Zionists to allowing Jews to visit the Temple Mount under certain precautions.
However, in order to gain peace with the Arab world it is essential to show that Israel respects Jewish honor, particularly on the Temple Mount. The reason the Arabs don’t respect the Jews on the Mount is that the Jews don’t show self-respect with regard to Israel’s policies on the Mount in what to Arabs appear to be Jews acting out of fear in bowing to Arab deterrence of incitement and occasional minor violence on the mount. Therefore realizing Jewish rights on the mount, including excavating the area and building synagogues on the mount while respecting Muslim rights which means respecting the Dome of the Rock and not building a temple in its place. Doing so will not lead to violence but ultimately to respect for the Jews as the past is unearthed and Jews start acting with self-respect and honor in their holiest place.
All Israeli governments so far did not understand this and made the mistake of not realizing Jewish rights on the Mount. The good news is that the fearmongering is unfounded and no Arab regime will self-destabilize or cut ties with Israel (which they maintain solely in their own interest) in response to archaeological excavations and construction of synagogues on the Temple Mount. It’s not mere incitement, it’s a bluff stupid!
Honor is extremely important in the cultures of the broader Middle East. What is honor? It is about self-respect and so genuine peacemaking in the region therefore takes place between mutually honorable parties. The honorable is strong and self-respecting. This is the basis of the Abraham Accords. This was never the case with the cold peace with Egypt and Jordan which was convenient yet deemed “dishonorable”.
It is vitally important for peacemaking and Israel’s standing and integration in the region that Israel insists on the Jews’ honor. This is nowhere more true than on the Temple Mount. The international rhetoric about “maintaining the historical status quo” is mere hypocrisy since the international community generally is not supportive of Jewish visits to the Temple Mount which has been part of the status quo since time immemorial.
Since Arab nations (or for that matter the rest of the international community) are not committed to the historical status quo, this surely begs the question why Israel should? What would happen if Israel built a synagogue on the Temple Mount? Absolutely nothing. There would be the usual condemnations. Arab countries that maintain diplomatic relations with Israel do so because it is in their interest and for no other reason. No synagogue on the Temple Mount will change that. Besides, the Jordanian Waqf has illegally built additional mosques on the mount without permission, something which completely violated the status quo, so why not build a synagogue? Will there be a war with Hamas? Only if Hamas deems it to be in their strategic interest and they most certainly currently do not believe so. Would archaeological excavations cause a disaster of some kind? No, they would not because the PA does not want a Third Intifada and therefore will not instigate one.
The Arabs are bewildered why the Jews act completely without self-respect concerning our own heritage and therefore they do not respect us on the Temple Mount. The truth about the status quo is that it has been fluid and ever-changing since 1967 with the Muslims grabbing more and more rights at the Jews expense. If we want real peace at Mount Moriah then we as Jews need to start acting with self-respect and yes honor. Of course, no Third Temple can be built since the Dome of the Rock stands in its place. However, a Third Temple replica could be built elsewhere in Jerusalem as a museum of animal abuse. However, there is much open space on the Temple Mount plaza and so extensive archaeological excavations should be carried out and a master plan should be devised for building multiple synagogues on the mount for all denominations of Judaism.
Israel is frequently admonished by Arab governments to maintain the historical status quo at the Temple Mount which for centuries has included visits by non-Muslims, including Jews. Yet now visits by Jews are completely falsely described as “desecration”, “provocation”, “Jewish filthy feet” and “storming of the al-Aqsa mosque”. Which way do they want it? Do they want to maintain the historical status quo or not? It appears not. The rhetoric about maintaining the historical status quo on the Temple Mount is mere hypocrisy. By the way, the “concerns” that the visit by Minister Ben-Gvir to the Temple Mount would “lead to” loss of lives proved completely unfounded. This was utter nonsense.
There is no reason whatsoever why new Israeli police minister Itamar Ben-Gvir should not visit the Temple Mount. Will such a visit cause bloodshed? Palestinian terrorists do not need an excuse to cause bloodshed and so no peaceful act of visiting the most sacred site in Judaism can be the cause of bloodshed. It is true that the Second Intifada followed upon then Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s visit to the Temple Mount, yet it is also true that the Second Intifada had been planned in advance by Palestinian leaders and so Sharon’s visit merely served as a convenient excuse for unleashing the Second Intifada. Peaceful visits by non-Muslims (including Jews) have been part of the status quo on the Temple Mount for centuries. However, no Israeli cabinet minister has ascended to the mount since Sharon’s visit in 2000 in effectively appeasing the terrorists. There is simply no reason whatsoever why Israeli cabinet ministers should not be able to visit the most sacred place in Judaism. Yes, it is true that Itamar Ben-Gvir is an extremist but that should certainly not be construed as infringing on his religious right as a Jew to visit the most sacred site in Judaism. Or will we start blacklisting Jews on the basis of political opinions and who are therefore not allowed to visit the Temple Mount? Will Hamas start a war over a visit? The general assessment is that Hamas is not interested in war now and so war is extremely unlikely at his point. We witnessed the same story with the Jerusalem flag march which supposedly would “lead to violence” if it was not canceled or rerouted. Interestingly, the only year the planned flag march led to war was when the Flag march was rerouted and ultimately canceled. Now we hear the same eerily similar horror stories all over again with the implicit message “don’t anger the terrorists, appease them”. There won’t be a Third Intifada for the simple reason that Mahmoud Abbas does not want one, the Second Intifada not coincidentally dissipated when Abu Mazen became president of the Palestinian Authority. It is generally important not to act out of fear. The truth is the opposite, when you appease terrorists you embolden them to commit more terror and engage in more violence when rather the goal should be to make them despair of their terrorist tactics. When you exhibit weakness in Middle Eastern political culture you certainly invite armed attacks from your foes.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has made three demands from the US for making peace with Israel. Those are 1) a KSA-USA defense treaty, 2) NATO-level deliveries of weaponry and 3) what appears to be a demand to purchase the new small highly cost-effective nuclear power plants that are currently being developed in the United States.
The solution to this is a Middle Eastern defense alliance where the founding members would be the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Egypt, Bahrain, the UAE and Jordan. This won’t work without US membership just as NATO would not work without US membership. Of course this is not possible either without the KSA being a founding member. It is important to think small initially and let Arab nations join as they make peace with Israel since Israel will be the motor in the alliance so to speak in sharing exclusive military high tech with fellow alliance members in the Arab world and thus helping build a regional security architecture. The US should furthermore commit to export the new small nuclear power plants to the KSA. There would also have to be agreement on US weapon deliveries to alliance members similar to that which is provided to European NATO members.
What are the consequences of the new Molotov-Ribbentrop pact between Moscow and Tehran where the two are mutually arming each other? Is it possible that a Russian invasion of European NATO nations and an Iranian invasion of Saudi Arabia (and by extension Israel and the rest of the Arab world) will be synchronized? Yes, there is a strong likelihood of that happening in the future although it is surely not imminent.
Once Saudi Arabia joins the Negev Forum nations should there be no obstacle to a defense alliance that would crucially also include the United States. It is important to think ahead and first think small in order to later think big, i.e. offer accession to further Arab nations and possibly also to Turkey and Azerbaijan.
The Biden administration often repeats its commitment to resolving the Palestinian issue through an infamously failed formula which was always dead on arrival due to being founded on outright false premises constituting on the American side simply wishful thinking and refusal to learn from recent Israeli history.
What is peculiar is that the Biden administration is apparently much less eager to facilitate Israeli-Saudi peace and is unwilling to agree to MBS’ demands for 1) a defense treaty, 2) NATO-level weapons-deliveries and 3) the KSA buying the new small, much more cost-effective nuclear reactors that are currently being developed in the United States.
Let’s reframe these demands. The US and Israel should be members of a Middle Eastern defense alliance directed against Iran that would also include the GCC nations, Jordan, Egypt, Morocco, Sudan, Tunisia and Libya. Iran intends to purchase an air force from Russia and plans to roll their tanks through Israel across the Nile all the way to the Atlantic Ocean and hence Iran’s subversive activities in Moroccan West Sahara.
Why then does the coming Israeli government represent an opportunity that the outgoing government did not? Because Benjamin Netanyahu is perceived as a man of honor by most Arab leaders. Because honor matters profoundly in the Middle East and President Biden is alas, in contrast perceived as dishonorable by Arab leaders. This may seem somewhat peculiar since Netanyahu’s reputation in domestic Israeli politics is precisely as being very much dishonest.
However, a regional defense alliance with Israeli and American membership will not work without also Saudi Arabia being a member. Countries such as Oman and Tunisia (both nations are interested in normalization with Israel) need not necessarily be founding members of the alliance and so could join later. Just like America is an essential member of NATO, so will America be an essential part of the Middle Eastern defense alliance. Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan could also become members of the new alliance which would be directed specifically against Iran and its proxies and no other threat.
The primary purpose of such a new defense alliance is of course as with NATO not to fight war but rather to prevent war by deterring Iranian aggression. The US needs to make a decision to commit itself to membership or it will eventually see the region go up in flames with calamitous consequences.
Let’s face the reality. Iran and Russia have agreed on a latter-day Molotov-Ribbentrop pact where the two nations agree to arm each other for the purpose of westward territorial expansion. The deal is simple, Russia gets the entire Europe and Iran gets the entire Arab world. Westward invasions are certainly not imminent, yet they are long since planned and intended for implementation when the time is ready.
The US government needs to make MBS a counteroffer.
This of course is a time when many in the international community are worried about the long overdue legalization of unauthorized outposts constructed on public lands in Area C of Judea and Samaria. These outposts lie between authorized indigenous Israeli communities. These are areas which were always intended to become part of sovereign Israel. Of course with mass Aliyah of tens of millions of Median Jews from the Middle East and beyond will Israel apply sovereignty to the entire Judea and Samaria, including Area B and Area A and grant Israeli citizenship to the Palestinian population living there. However, the notion that Israel would uproot indigenous Israeli communities built on public lands in order to create a terrorist state is a fantasy that never had any foundation in reality. This was never a possibility as Israeli intelligence knew Barak’s and Olmert’s offers or for that matter any other final status offer from the Israeli government would be rejected out of hand by the PLO Negotiation Department since the PA is simply not interested in a final status agreement and never was. The creation of the Palestinian autonomy was always intended by Israel as a long term intermediate stage as a form of conflict management before Judea and Samaria either would be permanently partitioned or incorporated as a whole into Israel depending on the future demographic situation. However, uprooting indigenous Israeli communities built on public lands was never really seriously considered. The legalization of unauthorized indigenous communities built on public lands is long overdue and there is no reason for the geographically illiterate international community to get hysterical over something that does nothing to impede peace but would rather reinforces an hypothetical partition of Judea and Samaria as illustrated by the map of the Kushner peace plan.
The recent visit by PUK leader Bafel Talabani to AANES is certainly a most welcome and encouraging development. There should have been intra-Kurdish reconciliation between the different political parties of Kurdistan a long time ago but better late than never. The ongoing historical revolutionary processes in Iran means that there is quite realistically potentially an opportunity for Kurdish independence in the Syrian, Iraqi and Iranian sections of Kurdistan, albeit this is certainly not possible in the Turkish section due to the pervasive power of the military deep state in Turkey. The Sabbatean-controlled Derin Devlet deep state domestic intelligence apparatus has however proven that it is capable of repeatedly preventing TAF invasions of neighboring countries as it prevented Turkey from invading NES in November 2021, in May 2022 and now in the fall of 2022. This means that the Derin Devlet is a reliable ally of Israel and therefore an historically unexpected protector of Free Kurdistan.
- First, the various political parties of Rojava, Bashur and Rojhelat need to reconcile around a common project of a liberal democratic independent state in half of Kurdistan.
- Second, the various Kurdish political parties should convene a secret conference to draft a constitution for a new unified independent state.
- Third, an agreed map should be drawn at the conference for cantons as federal subjects.
- Fourth, a strategic plan should be drafted to establish a unified de facto state without formally declaring independence.
- Fifth, a domestic defense industry should be immediately established.
- Sixth, official independence should only be declared when a) the nation is able to defend itself and b) there is international willingness to recognize the new state.
- Seventh, a de facto independent state should develop all attributes of independence (including its own national currency) long prior to officially declaring independence.
- Eight, the de facto state should be a cross-border, cross-national democratic confederation.
- Ninth, the Kurdish movement should only strive to establish autonomies for Kurdistan and Zazaistan within the internationally recognized borders of Turkey.
After OPEC decided to decrease oil production quotas, the Biden administration determined to conduct a formal reassessment of the US relationship with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. America in effect has no choice but to defend Gulf oil fields against Iran irrespective of what MBS does domestically and internationally and MBS knows it because the US government cannot risk the Arabian oil fields falling into the hands of the Iranian regime. It is as simple as that. What Biden has repeatedly done – and before him to a lesser extent Obama and Trump – is to undermine the confidence Gulf leaders hold in the United States. This has never been properly repaired because of the Obama-Biden strategy of hoping to align with Iran and ditching the KSA. The ongoing formal reassessment should not be construed as a means to further undermine the confidence Saudi leaders hold in the United States but rather as a means to rebuild confidence and this can only be done if the strategy of hoping to eventually align with the mullahs is fully thrown out. The question is if the disastrously failed strategy is still in place? This remains somewhat unclear. The Biden administration says that it does not want to renew negotiations with Iran over the resumption of the JCPOA for as long as Iran is killing its own citizens and providing Russia with drones. Placing what are in effect impossible conditions in the path of negotiations suggests that the Biden administration has had enough of being fooled by devious, murderous clerics. However, the US government is leaving some unclarity as to what is its real intentions which certainly makes Team Biden seem dishonorable in the eyes of Gulf interlocutors, i.e. in Middle Eastern cultural terms devoid of honor. The Biden administration would be particularly well-advised to stop discounting the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia which as the leading nation in OPEC is an influential power in the international community and an important ally of the United States. The Biden administration needs to make a clear and credible, clean break with the unfortunate strategy of aligning with the Mullahs and ditching MBS and the KSA. The American interest demands so or else the US will continue to lose influence in GCC nations to Russia and China.
President Barack Obama’s Middle Eastern strategy of handing over the Muslim world to the Islamists as a means to defuse US-Muslim tensions and ostensibly facilitate so-called “Islamic democracy” which of course the peoples of Iran do enjoy so much (!) has fortunately not been maintained by the Biden administration despite largely being staffed by Team Obama. However, some remnants of the Obama paradigm has been maintained with respect to the Middle East and in particular so the strategy of supplanting Saudi Arabia with Iran as a US ally. Of course, it certainly makes geopolitical sense for America to have Iran as an ally against Russia and China, that is in America’s interest.
However, the reality is that the Khomeinist state is not even remotely interested in becoming yet another piece in the American jigsaw puzzle global system of alliances. While it is certainly strongly in the national interest of the peoples of Iran to align with the United States, this is simply not how the ruling mullahs see it. If you hold a Muslim conspiratorial Anti-Semitic worldview as do generally Islamist thinkers, then you view the American superpower as a global Jewish conspiracy to destroy Islam. While it is true that former Iranian president Rafsanjani for some reason at some point urged better relations with Washington, it is important to emphasize that this never materialized as one should generally not pay too much attention to the chatter of the so-called “reformists” because Khomeini was not a “reformist” and neither is Khamenei and it is the supreme leader who has the final say in Iran.
The Biden administration refuses to formalize the USA-KSA defense alliance against Iran because of the underlying US agenda of selling out Riyadh and instead implausibly aligning with Tehran. Of course, this strategy is unsuccessful to say the least and will never materialize because it is based upon patently false premises. Yet, the problem is that it harms American interests in the Gulf and enhances Russian and Chinese influence at America’s expense. Another vital American interest that is harmed is Israeli-Saudi normalization which is artificially held up and unnecessarily delayed.
America is right to want to align with Iran but this can only happen after the present regime (which regards America as Satanic) is removed from power. It is furthermore in the hands of the United States to remove the regime; all the US government has to do is to impose a no-fly zone over Iran, bomb police stations and IRGC facilities and provide air support to insurgents. There is furthermore absolutely no need to ditch the KSA as a strategic ally of the USA, in fact that strategy is not only counterproductive and based upon false premises but directly and indirectly harmful to American interests in the region and the world.
AANES (Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria) and the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) are not at war with Turkey. They have however for years been regularly attacked by the TAF (Turkish Armed Forces) on Erdogan’s instructions without any provocation whatsoever. It is true that the PYD (Democratic Union Party) which rules the AANES is an Apoist sister organization of the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party) and a fellow member of the KCK (Kurdistan Communities Union) which is committed to realizing the regional vision of democratic confederalism of Abdullah Öcalan. However, to claim as Turkey does that the PYD is a branch of the PKK is simply not accurate. PYD and PKK share the same ideology but they are separate political parties and exist in different countries, one in Syria and one in Turkey.
There are three centers of political power in Turkey: 1) the elected AKP government controlled by the Turkish branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, 2) the Sabbatean-controlled Derin Devlet deep state domestic intelligence apparatus and 3) the military deep state which controls the military, a second deep state not to be confused with the Erdogan-appointed contemporary pro-Islamist top brass in the TAF. Who in Turkey is behind the constant aerial campaigns against NES (North and East Syria)? The military deep state is Kemalist and therefore opposes territorial expansionism abroad since this contradicts Kemalist principles. The Sabbatean-controlled Derin Devlet has no Anti-Kurdish agenda and has repeatedly prevented Erdogan from invading NES. It is therefore clear that the TAF is terrorizing North and East Syria solely at the behest of President Erdogan and his Muslim Brotherhood geopolitical agenda of taking over Syria.
The Sabbatean-controlled Derin Devlet would be particularly well-advised to permanently put an end to Turkey’s attacks against Syrian territory. Human beings are dying in vain and the region is destabilized only on behalf of the Muslim Brotherhood. These senseless killings which do not serve the interests of any nation in the region cannot in any way be justified.
President Erdogan has never given up hopes for a Muslim Brotherhood takeover of Syria. However, this is distinctly not in the interest of Turkey. It is furthermore in the interest of the Sabbatean community and thus also the Sabbatean-controlled Derin Devlet deep state domestic intelligence apparatus to ensure Israeli regional interests considering that the Sabbateans being Bektashis will emigrate en masse to Israel together with tens of millions of other Median Jews once the gates are opened for Median Jewish Aliyah (immigration) to Israel. The future of the Sabbatean community is clearly in Israel. Safeguarding the safety and survival of the AANES (Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria) is a vital Israeli national security interest considering that the PYD will form the next government in Syria after Israel’s planned Northern War with new borders instituted in the northern Levant. It is essential that the Derin Devlet prevents Erdogan’s Jihadist plan of conquest.
The juggernaut of the current feminist revolution is unstoppable yet currently unable to bring down the detested Khomeinist regime. It appears however quite inevitable that the revolution at some point will descend into civil war. The demonstrators have at this point virtually limitless patience and the regime is effectively unable to crack down on the demonstrators due the extremely decentralized nature of the protests throughout the country. Furthermore, the regime is painfully cognizant that trying to seriously quell the protests would risk igniting either demonstrations in the millions in the streets of major cities or civil war as most people in Iran as is common in the Middle East have an assault rifle with ammunition in their home. The regime has so far been extremely patient and we have thus seen no attempt at major nationwide crackdown. The regime accuses foreign intelligence agencies of fomenting civil war in Iran, yet the truth is that they are unable to do so even if they wanted to, civil war will nevertheless very likely happen at some point and there are already signs that it is coming. The people’s wrath is boiling over.
President Erdogan’s attempt to ban his popular rival, Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu was certainly to be expected. However, it is the traditional role and indeed duty of the Sabbatean-controlled Derin Devlet deep state domestic intelligence apparatus to ensure free and fair elections in Turkey. The notion of banning a mainstream Kemalist figure such as Imamoglu is surely outrageous. This means crossing a red line and is therefore completely unacceptable. The Derin Devlet would be particularly well-advised to take resolute and timely action to prevent Erdogan from any further antidemocratic tampering with the June 2023 elections, including making sure that Mr. Imamoglu can potentially run in the presidential election as the opposition may want to choose him as their consensus candidate.
The ruling mullahs in Iran are gravely concerned and rightly so. Why is this the case you may ask? They are afraid of the soft power of protesting feminists and particularly of Kurdish women and so are making great efforts to present women protesters as pawns of Iran’s enemies. Iran has active plans to attack the KSA and the KRI (Kurdistan Region of Iraq) but will these be put into motion now that those plans have been publicly exposed? The mullahs understand perfectly well that massacring large numbers of women protesters would in fact lead to an even greater revolution, and even possibly an armed revolt. The regime’s absurd efforts to discredit the feminist protests have abjectly failed and the revolution will only continue to grow until the regime falls. This time it is most probably for real. Another factor that works in favor of the current feminist revolution is the common democratic feminist ideology. An attempted revolution with a shared ideology has much greater chance of successs than one without.
Anti-Israeli propagandists claim that Israelis have appropriated Palestinian cuisine in claiming it as its own. Is there any truth to those claims? The reality is that there is no uniquely Palestinian cuisine as Palestinians eat the same food as other Middle Easterners including e.g. Iraqi Jews. Israeli culture is mostly a blend of Ashkenazi Jewish and Mizrahi Jewish culture and this is also true of the Israeli cuisine. What is popularly internationally known as “Israeli food” such as hummus, falafel and tahini is simply the general Middle Eastern food traditionally eaten by Middle Eastern Jews who immigrated to Israel. The truth is rather that the Israeli food scene is by far the most varied and multicultural in the Middle East with influences brought by Jewish immigrants from around the world.
Why is Tehran threatening Riyadh while planning to attack, possibly even invade Saudi Arabia? Well, the main reason is that the mullahs believe that the Americans would not defend the KSA. The situation has been exacerbated by recent American threats against Saudi Arabia which in turn are rooted in a dysfunctional US policy towards Iran which led Riyadh to decrease OPEC oil production quotas. The reality is that US policy is destabilizing the region and pushing Riyadh and Tehran towards the brink of war and thus endangering American interests. President Biden would be particularly well-advised to reassess his policies towards Persian Gulf nations with a particular emphasis on distinguishing between the basically friendly Arab Gulf monarchies and the fundamentally hostile Iran. President Biden failed to prevent war in Europe, will he fail to prevent war in the Middle East as well?
There is a profound strategic problem with respect to how Washington and Jerusalem deal with Tehran. Iran is no less motivated by Mahdism in its neo-imperialist strategy than the Soviet Union was motivated by Marxism-Leninism in its own imperialist strategy. Yet Washington and Jerusalem in their respective public rhetoric do not give any hint of having a counter-strategy to Iranian Mahdism. Iran is generally treated as a purely rational entity and no one appears to be formulating an ideological counter-strategy. For Malley and Biden is it all just one great bilateral misunderstanding between America and Iran and a series of diplomatic solutions are required leading ultimately to an envisioned alliance between Washington and Tehran. For Israel the problem is military in nature and the assessment in Jerusalem is that this problem will never be resolved before there is regime change in Iran.
What is distinctly needed is an integrated strategy to dismantle the Khomeinist empire. The question is the following: Will the United States allow itself to be deterred by Iranian weapons of mass destruction or will it take preventive action to defend its vital national security interests? The Iranian problem is only getting worse over time and so resolving it becomes increasingly complicated as the years pass.
Intelligence agencies may legally engage in political action in foreign countries as long as they do not break the law. The Israel lobby in the United States is meticulous in not technically acting as foreign agents and thus does not break the law despite acting as the long arm of Tevel, the Political Action and Liaison Department of the Mossad in arguing for joint American-Israeli interests. This is certainly not true of Muslim Brotherhood Intelligence (MBI) in the United States and other countries and the Foreign Agents Registration Act in the United States remain largely unenforced. MBI in the United States reached its peak of political influence during the Obama administration as President Obama despite not being a Muslim clearly sympathizes with the Muslim Brotherhood. MBI runs thousands of agents of influence in think tanks in Washington. The idea began to build to reconcile and align with Iran and ditch Saudi Arabia. This MBI concept gained a foothold during the Obama administration and has become a fixation during the Biden administration. It would seem somewhat peculiar that the KSA would become the whipping boy in Washington when the country is liberalizing, after all, the United States maintains convenient relationships with most dictatorships. However, this is not strange at all. The formation of the Anti-Saudi lobby in Washington roughly coincides with the Muslim Brotherhood falling out of favor and becoming outlawed in Riyadh.
Why are MBI agents of influence pushing this strategic dead end despite Tehran certainly not in any way being on board? The reason should be clear. First to bring Jihadists to power in Riyadh and second to otherwise harm the national interests of the United States. Washington is being stonewalled by Tehran and Riyadh could raise oil prices even further if it wants to show its displeasure over Biden’s unwillingness to bring down the mullahs through the imposition of a no-fly zone with air support to insurgents.
The relationship between Iran and MBI is complex, first, they are aligned everywhere but in Syria, second they are independent regional and global actors, but they are certainly aligned in their enmity towards the KSA and the USA. President Biden and Democratic members of Congress should consider who is behind the Anti-Saudi lobby and that those very forces are not at all well disposed towards American interests, in fact, quite the opposite. It is not in the interest of the United States of America for the US government to be manipulated by the MBI and it is absolutely essential to expose the nefarious machinations of Muslim Brotherhood Intelligence in Washington.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has had enough, he does not trust the United States in general and President Biden in particular and for good reasons. Three US presidents (Obama, Trump and Biden) have pursued American disengagement from the Middle East. Trump refrained from defending Saudi Arabia when it was attacked by Iran and MBS does not trust Biden’s claim that disengaging from the Middle East was a mistake.
First of all let’s begin with the question of whether the policy of disengaging from the Middle East was a mistake? America must make sure that Arabian oil does not fall into the hands of Iran and so it would be in the interest of the United States to enter into a defense alliance with the GCC directed against Iran. This would serve as a mighty deterrence, not only in deterring Iran from attacking GCC nations but also in deterring Iran from attacking major American cities with biological weapons. Why is this so? The purpose of the manmade Khomeinist apocalypse is to bring the Mahdi, identified with the Hidden Imam and he is slated to reappear in Mecca and so Iran must control Mecca when the Hidden Imam reappears in Mecca. A reinforced American commitment to defend Mecca would therefore plausibly deter the Iranians from attacking America as well. The primary US interest in the region is to prevent war between Iran and Saudi Arabia. A policy of 1) disengagement from the Middle East), 2) a defense pact with the GCC and 3) a policy of outsourcing regional superpower duties to Israel would drastically strengthen regional stability and security and give America a more low profile yet no less influential role with crucially strengthened soft power in the region since Israel would do America’s bidding. Israel will always remain wholly dependent on America and the US outsourcing its regional superpower duties to Israel would drastically strengthen the Israeli-American special relationship.
The reality is that America is overextended worldwide and will find it increasingly difficult in the decades to come to compete with a China that inevitably will catch up with and overcome the United States economically and is already competing with the United States technologically and militarily. America must outsource power to its democratic partners and allies worldwide and help empower them. America must lead a global democratic commonwealth of liberal democracies and will only thus be able to prevail over China.
MBS is certainly a colorful leader and it is true that he is giving Biden the choice between a non-existent JCPOA with no chance of resuscitation and Saudi Arabia. It is imperative that President Biden once more overcomes his old antagonism towards MBS and deals with Saudi Arabia with some empathy. How about Biden putting himself into MBS’ shoes and understanding how it feels to fear being abandoned by the sole superpower? And apparently MBS’ fears are clearly not unwarranted as Biden rushes to threaten to abandon the KSA the moment OPEC production quotas are decreased. One must surely wonder whether Rob Malley’s stated private agenda of aligning the United States of America with the Islamic Republic of Iran is also President Biden’s unstated geopolitical intention as it was clearly President Obama’s? Not that there is any chance of aligning Iran with “the Great Satan” but if Malley and Obama think there is then so may indeed Biden. Malley has officially stated that returning to the JCPOA would only be the first step and that the second step would be an agreement that would address regional issues and this appears to profoundly worry MBS.
What is peculiar is that Biden thinks that it is reasonable to abandon Saudi Arabia even prior to the attainment of the imagined reconciliation with Iran. This obsession in certain Democratic circles in Washington with abandoning Riyadh is also rather strange. What makes them think that Iran would make a better ally? MBS is keenly aware that the Biden administration is the third Obama administration which has retained the long-term Iran strategy of the first and second Obama administrations.
Now with the growing feminist revolution in Iran there is a unique window of opportunity to force regime change in Tehran with extremely high certainty of success. America’s allies in the Middle East are all too keenly aware that Biden has the powers to impose a no-fly zone now with air support to insurgents and bring down the terrorist mullahs but Biden refuses to do so. MBS apparently believes that Biden plans to befriend the mullahs at his expense and it seems that MBS may be right. Would Biden align with Iran and ditch KSA if given the opportunity? Who really can doubt that? It is still Team Obama in power and it is the same Iran strategy.
Why are the ruling mullahs specifically cracking down so hard on Iranian Kurdistan and attacking and threatening to invade Iraqi Kurdistan? Because most Iranians like so many other Middle Easterners maintain assault rifles in their homes and hence the current peaceful feminist revolution in Iran could seamlessly evolve into an armed revolt and where is that transition most likely to first happen? Yes, you guessed it right, in Iranian Kurdistan. There have been multiple attempted revolutions in Islamist Iran, yet none has been as serious as this one and the mullahs know it. It is also a fact that Zhina (“Mahsa”) Amini was Kurdish. The revolution’s feminist slogan “Woman, Life, Freedom” is derived from the Kurdish movement. In fact, the whole idea of a feminist revolution is imported from Kurdistan and so it is no wonder that the Iranian authorities are afraid of the Kurds. In fact, the regime could be right and this could develop into a nationwide armed uprising and yes it would probably start in Kurdistan.
The right thing to do in such a situation would be for the US to impose a no-fly zone on the entire Iran and bomb police stations and IRGC facilities and provide air support to insurgents. The problem of course is that the current US administration is vehemently opposed to such a course of action despite this strongly being in the national interest of the United States of America. As the Iranian regime anticipates the feminist revolution transforming into an armed revolt, the US government needs to be ready for this scenario as well and must thus be ready to reasses its opposition to assisted regime change once the revolution transforms into a revolt. Why? Because the US national interest dictates ideological flexibility on this point.
Islamdom is America’s weak spot. George W. Bush tried to democratize Islamdom only to find out that the majority of the electorate in many Muslim nations votes Islamist, meaning that there are no prospects for democratization in many Muslim nations because the majority of the people wants totalitarianism. Yet, Bush’s democratization campaign resulted in the Arab spring, something which was certainly not intended and ultimately turned out a huge failure and tragically resulted in enormous loss of life. Barack H. Obama tried to reconcile with Islamdom and align America with the Islamists, only to find out that America became even more unpopular. Donald J. Trump completely ditched democratization, tried realpolitik and cozying up to dictators and so ended up enormously respected by governments in Islamdom and also feared due to his famously capricious personality. Joseph R. Biden in contrast does not appear to have any particular philosophy with respect to Islamdom. Biden has gained a reputation as a weakling and that is apparently the view that MBS holds of Biden. The most fundamental lesson in Middle Eastern regional politics is the utmost danger of acting in a way that one is perceived as weak because no one in the Middle East respects the weak. Obama, Trump and Biden all pursued a policy of incremental disengagement from the Middle East which Biden only in July this year claimed was a mistake.
The Trump administration knew all too well that its policy of maximum pressure might lead to the US having to act to destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program. The Biden administration has a faint hope that its own endless negotiations will avoid that outcome. However, those endless negotiations have completely discredited Biden among most Gulf leaders, particularly considering that his Iran appeaser-in-chief Rob Malley is on the record of having advocated aligning America with Khomeinist Iran. However, the penchant for Saudi-bashing in certain Democratic congressional circles is difficult to square with American interests. There is no way that MBS could maintain selective freedom for pro-democrats and Islamists as the Islamists, including the usually deceptive Muslim Brotherhood, would immediately disguise themselves as ostensible pro-democracy activists in order to introduce totatitarianism through the ballot box. Repression has to be uniform and tough during the era of reforms in Saudi Arabia while a new Americanized digital generation is raised in the country that hopefully might be inoculated against the lure of Islamism.
What recommendations could be made for US policy for Islamdom? Supporting democratization and liberalization in Muslim nations where public support for Islamism is weak is certainly noble, worthwhile and in concord the American interest. Success might lead to increased support for democracy in those Muslim nations where currently the majority supports totalitarianism and in those nations should liberalization without democratization be promoted. The policy of developing close personal relationships with Muslim dictators was a very successful way of keeping Islamdom in check. There is not much redeeming that can be said about the Mideast policies of the Obama administration. One particularly unwise man in the Oval Office wanted Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood to take over Islamdom and luckily his hopes came to naught.
It could be argued that wise advice to MBS would be not to annoy his nemesis in the White House and let him continue to negotiate ad absurdum because nothing will come out of it as Tehran is negotiating in bad faith. However, then comes the Iranian feminist revolution and Biden of course contraray to what allied Mideast leaders would like refuses to impose a no-fly zone over Iran that would provide air support to insurgents despite this being precisely the right time to do this in drastically increasing the chances of success for a no-fly zone. And so MBS articulates his displeasure in a way designed to significantly hurt his adversaries in the Democratic party in the November 8, 2022, midterm elections in the United States. Of course, MBS has hardly forgotten how the Democratic administration of Joe Biden intervened with his father King Salman to have MBS unseated as crown prince and now it is payback time. This of course is a lesson to all future US presidents for the next decades that developing close and trusting personal relationships with MBS is absolutely pivotal for safeguarding the American interest.
However, there is no question that Trump had an elaborate plan for containing Iran and defending the Arabian oil fields. Six more Muslims nations were lined up to normalize with Israel in the last months of the Trump presidency only to have second thoughts after power was handed over to Biden in January 2021. Let’s face the facts. If Iran’s gains control over Arabian oil then Iran will have gained superpower status to rival the United States. However, it is in the interest of the United States that GCC nations integrate militarily with Israel so as to boost their ability to defend themselves against Iran. At the same is there a need for a signed US defense guarantee to the GCC, something that Biden and MBS have either failed to agree on or else Biden has refused to provide altogether. Why has normalization stopped under Biden even though this is so crucial to American interests in the region? It is difficult not to blame the Biden administration.