The Karish Maritime Negotiations Will Fail

Much hope has been pinned on the indirect Israeli-Lebanese negotiations about the demarcation of the maritime border line between the two nations as mediated by US diplomat Amos Hochstein. However, what is often conveniently forgotten is that the Lebanese state is now effectively Hezbollahstan, an Iranian protectorate which takes indirect orders from Tehran through the mouth of Iranian proxy Hassan Nasrallah. It was recently claimed by a Lebanese official that the talks were close to conclusion, however, the same thing has been claimed innumerable times about the supposed return to the JCPOA. What we will most likely see is that the Israeli-Lebanese indirect talks will be dragged out indefinitely, very likely punctuated by a war since Israel does not want one and Nasrallah is confident that President Biden through the UN Security Council will enforce a ceasefire after a week or so without Israel causing too much damage in Lebanon. It is in Iran’s interest to always have more than one casus belli at hand so that Hezbollah will be able to provoke war without violating the Jafari prohibition on offensive warfare. Of course, Amos Hochstein like Rob Malley is wasting his time, Iran is not interested in an agreement in either case and Iran is the one calling the shots in Lebanon nowadays.

The Two-State Solution is Dead on Arrival

Why is the Palestinian Authority trying to promote UN membership for the non-existent “State of Palestine” despite an assured US veto in the UN Security Council? The apparent purpose is to pressure liberal democracies into recognizing Palestinian statehood with the goal of torpedoeing peace. 

The PA is quite comfortable with the status quo and its hope is to eventually become yet another Iranian forward base and hence its utter passivity with regard to Jihadism in Samaria. Of course, Israeli intelligence has always known that the PLO never had any genuine interest in a permanent two-state solution and both Ramallah and Jerusalem have long regarded the two-state discourse as a tactical means to very different strategic ends. For the Palestinians is the Palestinian Authority essential to the phased plan which they now hope will be implemented by Iran. For the Israelis was the very purpose of the Oslo Accords to establish semi-permanent Palestinian autonomy in parts of Judea and Samaria. Neither side had any intention to resolve the conflict and permanently establish a Palestinian state next to the Jewish state.

The “Palestinian state” next to Israel was always dead on arrival simply because the Palestinian side never wanted it. However, the PA/PLO wants to establish an illusion of “Palestinian sovereignty” in Judea and Samaria that could serve to sabotage international recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the entire Judea and Samaria once at least 10 million Median Jews have immigrated to Israel.

While Israel for decades has prepared for the establishment of defensible borders by building indigenous strategic communities that would fashion the borders with a future Palestinian state, the Palestinian side has educated for Jihadism, Anti-Semitism and genocide. Each has its strategic vision and they are not mutually compatible.

Will Erdogan lose power to the CHP in the 2023 Turkish elections? Yes, it is very likely. In any case, the Sabbatean-controlled Derin Devlet undoubtedly sees the future of the Sabbatean Bektashis in Israel and is determined to facilitate Median Jewish Aliyah (immigration) to Israel from Turkey one way or another. Furthermore, the Derin Devlet generally has the last word in Turkish politics although it is quite reluctant to intervene. Therefore, we can be assured that Median Jewish mass Aliyah from Turkey is only a matter of time.

The PA has no interest whatsoever in a two-state solution and an end-of-claims final status agreement because their only agenda is to destroy Israel and exterminate the Jews. Israel in the past was interested in keeping open the option of a Palestinian state that would not include strategic indigenous communities of Judea and Samaria yet now that solution is utterly redundant. The only solution is Median Jewish mass Aliyah in the tens of millions with Israel redeeming and enfranchising the entire Judea and Samaria and Jordan subsequently annexing Gaza. That is the only road to peace and it is understandable that the genocidal Ramallah regime wants to do everything possible to prevent that.

Putin Bluffs Badly

Russian President Vladimir Putin claims that he is not bluffing and that he is considering attacking NATO with nuclear weapons. Once more he is trying to use his former image in the West as an ostensible “madman”. What does he come out proving? Yes, he is desperate and he is running out of options and he has no nuclear option because tactical nuclear weapons are not effective on their own without an effective conventional military option which he clearly lacks vis-a-vis NATO. As for using tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine; President Putin considers Ukraine part and parcel of Mother Russia and what leader would use nuclear weapons against his own homeland? The reality is that Russia is suffering strategic defeat in Ukraine and no Russian mobilization will prevent Kyiv from kicking out every last occupying soldier from sovereign Ukrainian soil. The Ukrainian military is surprisingly capable and has proven its ability to thoroughly defeat Russia. It is now essential for NATO leaders to keep a steady hand on the situation in continually supplying Ukraine with more weaponry and not allow themselves to be distracted by Russian psychological warfare.

What Will Happen After the Destruction of the Iranian Nuclear Weapons Program?

A weekend interview in the Israeli daily Israel Hayom provided an insight into the perspectives of Israeli decision-makers. The interview was with one colonel T; the head of the IDF General Staff Strategy and Third-Circle Directorate. Ostensibly was the interview a sales pitch in order to persuade Israeli elected politicians to engage more in Iran-related defense spending. This is highly peculiar since members of the IDF are not allowed to get involved in domestic Israeli politics. Colonel T. claimed that Iran is patient and is not interested in destroying Israel in the coming 25 to 50 years, something which appears reassuring and begs the question why massive defense spending is so urgent? 

Rather, the Israeli objective was different and quite transparent, namely to send the message to Hassan Nasrallah that Israel does not believe in his threats. Unfortunately, contrary to what colonel T. tried to mislead the Israeli public into believing may the Iranian Axis want war with Israel in the near term. Either the Israeli defense establishment suffers from a severe conceptzia (disastrous strategic misjudgement) or colonel T. is simply engaging in disinformation. The reality is that there will be no Iranian return to the JCPOA because of the rapid development since 2015 of electric vehicles and this affects Iran’s timetable for nuclear breakout and regional expansion in the oil-rich Mahdist apocalyptic region (Arabia and the Fertile Crescent). In 25 to 50 years from now Iran will no longer be a regional great power because oil will be phased out for good worldwide. And so to claim that Iran would wait with destroying Israel until it is no longer a great power is hardly a credible thing to say. Colonel T. knows this and deliberately lied to the Israeli public about the acute and severe threat that the Iranian Axis poses to Israel, including with chemical weapons in the hands of Hezbollah.

It would be extremely inconvenient to wage war in Syria and Lebanon before the June 2023 Turkish elections. Why is that? President Erdogan would under no circumstances allow Alevis and other Turkish Median Jews to immigrate to Israel and would rather instigate civil war than let that happen because he does not want to end the Palestinian issue, which Alevi mass immigration to Israel effectively would terminate as Israel would be demographically able to redeem and enfranchise the entire Judea and Samaria with Jordan subsequently annexing Gaza. Therefore, Israeli leaders would not want to publicly announce the existence of Median Jewry and acknowledge their legal right to immigrate to Israel as long as Erdogan remains in power. It is simply politically highly inconvenient. Hence, Israel does not want war with Hezbollah prior to the ousting of Erdogan which is expected in June 2023 because war would involve annexing Median Jewish (Alawite and Druze) regions of Syria and Lebanon and thus officially recognizing Median Jews as fully Jewish without need for conversion.

Iran has identified this Israeli unwillingness for war and is therefore expecting a much more limited conflict similar to the one in 2006 but with a much more devastating impact on Israel. Why does Israel not want war? Because at this point Israel has nothing to gain from war. Hassan Nasrallah has threatened that Hezbollah will attack the Karish gas field should Israel begin pumping gas to the Israeli mainland as Israel has promised to do. Israel obviously cannot under any circumstances give in to the threats of a terrorist organization and so it appears that war is imminent.

The real question of course is what will happen after Israel and the US destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Is Iran bluffing about planning a massive retaliation? It might seem somewhat peculiar that Hezbollah threatens war against Israel already now rather than preserving all military options for a retaliation against an American-Israeli destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program. The question of course is whether Hezbollah is bluffing now? The answer appears to be that unfortunately Hezbollah and Iran are not bluffing.

Islam and the Totalitarian Virus

We have since the 1979 Iranian Islamist revolution seen a process where the world religion of Islam has increasingly been poisoned by the modern virus of totalitarianism. This has reached a point where some 50% of Muslims in many countries if given the opportunity would vote for Islamist political parties. Of course, it needs reminding that this did not begin in 1979 and that Islamism is the oldest of all the modern totalitarian political ideologies. Nevertheless, this is not true for Muslims everywhere as some Muslim peoples such as Iranians, Albanians, Kosovars, Bosniaks and many African Muslim peoples are overwhelmingly non-Islamist. The problem however for Europe is that the increasing takeover of Islam by Islamists poses an existential threat to the democratic future of the subcontinent. In one of my two countries, Sweden, did the nation on September 11, 2022 elect a rightwing majority, in part out of recognition of this reality. The Islamist Nuance Party (Swedish: Partiet Nyans) won between 20 and 30 percent of the vote in many predominantly Muslim immigrant suburbs in Sweden and this was its first election where it had still not managed to mobilize its full electoral potential. In the next election four years from now there is a serious risk that the Islamists will be elected to parliament and will hold the balance of power between the rightwing and center-left blocs in parliament. This may happen in other European nations as well. The Nuance party which pretends to be non-Islamist is of course organized by the deceptive and frequently disguised Muslim Brotherhood. The Islamist influence over Muslims in Europe is such that European nations must as Denmark has already done halt immigration in order to put a stop to Islamization. It is no longer possible to turn a blind eye to processes of Islamization in Muslim ghettos throughout Europe and so irrespondibly aiding and abetting their further demographic growth through immigration is profoundly irresponsible to the democratic future of the subcontinent. This used to be an argument between multiculturalists and xenophobes. It does not really matter anymore that xenophobia is undesirable and that multiculturalism is desirable, this issue has evolved into something entirely different in an emerging dystopian reality of tragically failed multiculturalism, namely a matter of democratic self-preservation.

On the Likelihood of Returning to the JCPOA

In the international community there is endless chatter about the presumed “relative likelihood” for the resumption of the JCPOA, according to many officials this “likelihood” varies by the month and the week. But is this really true? The fact is that the US government strongly wants an agreement, albeit not at any price. If Tehran wants an agreement, then it is 100% certain there will also be an agreement. If on the other hand Tehran does not not want an agreement then there is zero chance that there will be an agreement. The reality is that Elon Musk and Tesla irreversibly changed the Mahdist timeline for nuclear breakout and regional conquest and thus Tehran is no longer interested in a nuclear agreement. The question of whether there will be a nuclear agreement is thus not a question of calculating likelihood, it is absolutely black and white, either you mistakenly believe that Iran wants a nuclear agreement and that there will be one or you correctly assess that Iran is not interested in a nuclear agreement and that there won’t be any. Calculating “relative likelihood” for the return to the JCPOA is therefore absolute nonsense.

Fool me Once, Twice, Thrice

The international community, including Israel, refuses to learn from being serially deceived by Iran. It was in the interest of Khomeinist Iran to sign a nuclear agreement in 2015 with the P5+1 but what has changed since then are Elon Musk and Tesla with the rapid development of electric vehicles and with that the definitive horizon of supplanting oil with electricity. This has radically altered the Mahdist neo-imperialist timeline of nuclear breakout and regional conquest while the ruling mullahs continue to play the diplomatic game to appease Moscow and Beijing, play for time and buy critical time for Iran’s nuclear weapons program. The problem therefore lies with the Iran experts and the intelligence analysts who continue to misconstrue Iran’s intentions. The ruling mullahs must be having a good laugh at the naive infidels who no matter how many times they have been deceived and manipulated continue to believe in Iran’s intention to return to the JCPOA.

When the State Department is Picking on Israel

The Arabists at the State Department have a long history of trying to extract concessions from Jerusalem against Israel’s best interests with the intention of extracting ever more concessions in order to harm and undermine the Jewish state. This goes back all the way to when the US tried to force Israel to withdraw from areas conquered in excess of the 1947 UN Partition Plan, later the plan to force Israel to cede the Negev to Egypt and of course in 1956 when the US forced Israel to withdraw from the Sinai without obtaining a peace treaty. This long history of picking on Israel and trying to extract concessions that harm Israel has a long and sad pedigree at the State Department. Do I need to point out that harming Israeli security is certainly not conducive to American interests and rather leads to war and instability in the region? The Arabists at the State Department who are driving this anachronistic push for extracting reckless concessions from the Lapid government are instead harming and undermining American interests.

The US is Pressuring Lapid Because he is Liberal

The State Department has recently embarked on a ruthless campaign of pressure on Israel in seeking Israeli concessions and the only reason obviously is the perception that Prime Minister Yair Lapid as a centrist is “weak” and therefore amenable to diplomatic extortion. Interestingly, the State Department largely refrained from pressuring former prime minister Naftali Bennett due to the correct perception that pressing him for concessions was extremely unlikely to be successful. This illustrates that the international community only respects Israeli strength as any sign of perceived “weakness” on the part of Israeli leaders leads to instant foreign pressure. Hence, making concessions is dangerous because it only leads to demands for even more reckless concessions that harm vital Israeli interests.

Why the World Lost Interest in the Palestinian Issue

When will Median Jews immigrate to Israel in the tens of millions? This is only a matter of time. What is at stake is whether President Erdogan and the AKP will lose power in Turkey in the June 2023 elections and approximately 20 million Turkish Median Jews will be allowed to leave for Israel. For 3 million Iranian Median Jews is their leaving for Israel dependent on regime change, something which can be easily achieved by the United States through the imposition of a no-fly zone over Iran with provision of air support to insurgents. 1 million Iraqi Median Jews could emigrate to Israel through a neighboring third country with relations with Israel. For the 4 million Median Jews of Syria and Lebanon, the solution is rather different, namely Israeli annexation of Median Jewish (Alawite and Druze) regions through a trilateral peace treaty after a major defensive war that would lead to regime change in both Beirut and Damascus.

The real demographic game changer with respect to the resolution of the Palestinian issue is however immigration to Israel of the 16 million Alevi Median Jews of Turkey. It is now up to the Palestinian Authority to show its willingness to reconcile and compromise with Israel to achieve a two-state solution. Unless they do, the entire Judea and Samaria will eventually be redeemed and enfranchised by Israel, with Gaza subsequently being annexed by Jordan. The countdown is on. Yet, the Palestinian Authority shows no interest, eagerness or urgency in achieving a two-state solution and the international community understands this. This is why the PA is on its own diplomatically nowadays. After all, if the PA is not interested in a two-state solution, why should anyone else pay attention?

The US Needs a Regime Change Policy on Iran

The US government lives in an illusion fed by the Iranian regime, namely that Iran somehow has an interest in a nuclear agreement with the P5+1. Contrary to US assessments and due to increasing progress in the development of electric vehicles, something which radically shrinks the window of opportunity for oil-based Mahdist neo-imperialism, Iran has absolutely no interest in any nuclear agreement whatsoever, yet has every interest in playing for time so as to appease Moscow and Beijing and buy international legitimacy for its nuclear weapons program. The problem of course is that the US is playing into the hands of the Iranian regime and  is effectively enhancing its legitimacy by participating in indirect negotiations with Tehran. Of course, it could be argued from an American perspective that Biden’s America is perceived as weak and feckless and is therefore highly vulnerable to a series of Iranian biological weapons terrorist attacks on major American cities and that it would therefore be better to defer the war with Iran to the next administration which will in all probability be Republican because Tehran would probably not dare attack an America led by a Republican president. This argument ignores that Iran poses the most potent threat against the American homeland ever and that it is imperative to remove this threat expeditiously. In fact, pre-nuclear Iran poses a far more severe threat against America than against Israel because Iran would only use chemical weapons against Israelis so as to not annihilate the Palestinians.

The US needs to recognize that the Iranian regime is highly dangerous and apocalyptic and the US therefore needs to implement a regime change policy with respect to Iran. The American interest dictates this. America has the tools to implement this by imposing a no-fly zone over Iran that would include provision of critical air support to insurgents. This would most likely bring down the Khomeinist regime and would vastly facilitate an operation to destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program. America cannot let this regime remain in place as this threat to America is intolerable. It is certainly not too late for the Biden administration to change policy from useless and counterproductive appeasement to one of robust deterrence and effective regime change. America needs to wake up and realize that the United States (and not Israel) is the primary enemy of Iran according to Khomeinist doctrine. Iran is the worst threat against US national security that America has ever faced and so it is imperative to deter and defeat this menace as soon as possible.

A Colossal Intelligence Failure

The Western intelligence community operates on the assumption that Iran is interested in returning to the JCPOA. Yet, no matter how many times this false belief has been discredited by persistent Iranian rejectionism, the Western intelligence community has clung to this patently false belief. If Iran was motivated primarily by economic imperatives then surely not only would it return to the JCPOA, but it would dismantle its nuclear weapons program and normalize relations with the United States. From an economic perspective does it not make sense to drag out negotiations indefinitely but from a nuclear perspective it certainly does.

The basic problem or in Hebrew “conceptzia” (monumental strategic error) is the assumption that the Iranians are strategically rational. This belief is virtually universally shared by Iran experts around the world. A more correct reading would be to assess that Iran is tactically highly rational but strategically partly insane. Why is this so? Because Iran’s strategy is premised on the Khomeinist official Iranian ideology of Mahdism for which Iranian statecraft is only a tool to prepare for the return of the Hidden Imam.

I have been warning for the past year that Iran has no interest whatsoever in returning to the JCPOA as refusing to do so makes perfect sense if you recognize that the Islamic Republic of Iran is merely a tool for bringing about the reappearance of the Hidden Imam.

Iran’s strategic calculus is part rational geostrategy and part apocalyptic eschatology and Anti-Semitic reasoning. It is essential to recognize and internalize that it was not Donald Trump, but rather Elon Musk who changed the Iranian calculus on the JCPOA. Khomeinist Iran is focused like a laser beam on taking over the Mahdist apocalyptic region (Arabia and the Fertile Crescent) where the cities of Damascus, Jerusalem and Mecca are located, wherein Jesus, the Dajjal (the Deceitful Messiah) and the Mahdi (the Hidden Imam) are slated to appear. The rapid development of electric vehicles means that the strategic window of opportunity for Iran has considerably narrowed. This is because Iran relies on the economic power of conquered Arabian oil to take subjugate Islamdom and extort the rest of the world. This is part of Iran’s rational considerations.

It is highly peculiar indeed that both Israel and the United States insist on waiting until the very last moment to launch a strategic attack against the Iranian nuclear weapons program thus increasing the risks. This reasoning is based on strategic confusion whereby the United States will negotiate until the very last moment and Israel assumes that waiting until the very last moment will maximize international diplomatic support. The US should use the precious diplomatic time to ostracize the Khomeinist regime from the international community, build an international coalition against Iran and restore trust with its Arab allies. Tehran is skillfully manipulating Washington, Jerusalem and the rest of the international community. Washington needs to recognize and internalize that Iran has no interest in any nuclear agreement whatsoever for reasons which make perfect sense from a neo-imperialist Mahdist perspective.

What are Tehran’s Interests Regarding the Karish Maritime Border Dispute?

Israel withdrew from Lebanon in the year 2000 but Tehran was not satisfied and so Iran/Hezbollah instructed the Lebanese government to manufacture the Sheba farm (Har Dov) fictitious border claims on lands in the northern Golan heights. Iran/Hezbollah did it again in 2022 when it instructed the Lebanese government to expand Lebanon’s claims for territorial waters and the exclusive economic zone at the expense of Israeli waters. Why did Iran do this? Because they want to perpetuate the conflict with Israel and because they want a permanent casus belli according to Jafari Jurisprudence (which prohibits offensive war) to initiate war against Israel whenever they want to do so. Thus it can be assumed with strong confidence that the US-mediated indirect negotiations between Lebanon and Israel will lead absolutely nowhere. What is however somewhat peculiar and indeed perplexing are Hassan Nasrallah’s recent threats to attack Israel. Iran wrongly believes that the Hezbollah-led Iranian axis is able to destroy Israel with chemical weapons, rockets, missiles and drones, yet Tehran is reluctant to pull the trigger and apparently so for fear of Israeli nuclear retribution. What then can explain the recent brouhaha about the supposed “return” to the JCPOA as combined with Nasrallah’s threats of war against Israel? This is simply psychological warfare to confuse and undermine the enemy and it is quite successful. This is very effective as the Israelis and the Americans react as expected to every Iranian manipulation. What Jerusalem and Washington apparently do not understand is that Tehran is interested in keeping conflicts alive and pretending to negotiate in order to undermine an adversary’s will to power is a useful tactic in that context.

What is the Iranian Game?

Usually, the Iranians and their proxies are playing their cards very carefully but more recently have the Iranians been using some unusual cards. The indirect negotiations with the United States have been brought to the brink with the intention likely being to eventually blame Washington for their ultimate failure. Simultaneously, Tehran’s Lebanese proxy Hezbollah threatened war with Israel unless the dispute over the exclusive economic zone is resolved at the latest by September 2022.

What to make of this strategy? Superficially would it appear to be an attempt by Tehran to draw a wedge between Jerusalem and Washington. But this is unlikely considering that Khomeinists like all Islamist ideologues believe that the American superpower constitutes a global Jewish conspiracy with Israel merely being considered one of its many “tentacles”. 

What then is behind this Iranian international noise? Israeli intelligence apparently does not understand that there may be an integrated regional strategy here, including possibly against the Gulf states. Of course I could be wrong, a return to the JCPOA could be imminent and Nasrallah could be just bluffing in order to reinforce Lebanon’s negotiating position but I am more suspicious of Iranian intentions than that. My sense is that the Iranians are hiding something far more devious. Not that I could be wrong of course but my warning lights are flashing.

Does Israel Want War with the Iranian Axis?

The view from Jerusalem regarding Iran’s nuclear intentions is rather befuddled. One day we hear that there is little risk that there will be a return to the JCPOA and the next day we hear that such return is imminent and these “assessments” are unwittingly cyclically repeated and so the master manipulators in Tehran must be smiling at being so successful at unnerving their Israeli adversaries. Apparently, Israeli officials don’t even bother to disguise their utter confusion and the failure of Israeli intelligence to appropriately assess Iranian intentions with regard to the nuclear talks. I have however argued all along that the Iranians are merely playing for time in order to legitimize their rapidly advancing nuclear weapons program and that this is rational behavior from their perspective. 

The Iranian Plan A is to develop nuclear weapons and then take control over Arabia and the Fertile Crescent and subsequently the entire Islamdom and later the whole world. Iran knows that Israel and America can repeatedly prevent Iran from going nuclear and so Iran can force them and their allies to pay an unbearable price for destroying Iran’s nuclear weapons program. This is Iran’s Plan B. Iran plans to destroy Israel with rockets, missiles, drones and chemical weapons and subsequently gain control over Israel’s nuclear arsenal. Iran plans to invade and take control over the GCC nations with their oil fields and the holy cities of Mecca and Medina. Iran plans to attack major American cities with biological weapons and thus deter America from any further involvement in Islamdom. Iran possibly plans to attack major European cities with chemical weapons. This is the terrorist version of a world war; all geared towards prompting the reappearance of the Hidden Imam through a carefully engineered apocalypse. Furthermore, there would be a major war in the northern Levant with Israel liberating Syria and Lebanon after Hezbollah engaged in a frontal assault against Israel. Israel would annex Median Jewish (Alawite and Druze) regions of Syria and Lebanon, establish an indigenous Aramean state in parts of Lebanon and hand over power in Damascus to the PYD (Democratic Union Party). The US has the means for unseating the Iranian regime as a no-fly zone with air support to insurgents is quite certain to bring down the regime. In the worst case scenario will America have to liberate Iran through land war.  

This war may lead to tens of thousands of civilian casualties in Israel and so the question of course is whether Israel wants this war in Syria and Lebanon? The first answer is no, the second answer is that Jerusalem recognizes that this war is inevitable and therefore must be won with all war aims attained, the third answer is that the Israelis are certainly looking forward to winning this war despite the horrendous price to be paid for all sides. Why is it inevitable? Both sides (Israel and the Iranian axis in the Levant) are convinced that they will utterly vanquish the other side in this conflict and establish a new regional order. It is not an understatement to say that Israel has mixed feelings about this, similar indeed to feelings held by Zionist military commanders in 1947 and Israeli military commanders in 1967. Even if there would be a return to the JCPOA, a conflict would still be inevitable in the future. Iran is for now sticking to its Plan A but is ready to implement its Plan B after Plan A is thwarted. 

Some in Israel argue that deferring the conflict through a return to the JCPOA is in Israel’s interest but the fact is that the balance of power in the region is over time shifting in Iran’s favor as the Iranian axis is entrenched across the region. The problem from Iran’s perspective however is that time is no longer on Iran’s side as the technological clock is ticking on phasing out vehicles driven by gasoline and diesel and replacing them by electrically powered vehicles and so the end of Khomeinist Iran’s great power period in Islamdom is inevitable unless Iran uses the time wisely to conquer the GCC with its oil fields and establishes Iran as an oil superpower in order to conquer the rest of Islamdom. The time factor therefore requires Iran to break out as a nuclear power as soon as possible because it takes years to build a nuclear arsenal. Besides, what benefit is there really for Iran in returning to the JCPOA when a Republican president will rescind any agreement shortly after coming to power in early 2025? Who will invest in Iran or form serious trade links with Iran under such circumstances? Yes, Iran would gain huge oil revenues for two years but it would lose two years for its nuclear weapons program. President Biden no doubt believes that he can buy Iran off with oil revenues but Ayatollah Khamenei appears to disagree.

Jerusalem and Tehran are Different Conceptual Universes

Israel and Iran are both looking forward to establishing a new regional order and neither side fears regional war. Nevertheless, the respective visions of the new regional order look completely different. Both sides envision establishing regional hegemony and removing each other from power. What is the reason for these radically different strategic conceptions? At the present time, both sides are biding their time. Tehran for its part is playing for time in pretending to negotiate in order to buy time for its nuclear weapons program. Iran is convinced that Israel will not survive a regional war and will therefore not attack Iran’s nuclear weapons program and will effectively tolerate Iran joining the nuclear club. Jerusalem for its part has a vision of establishing peace throughout the Middle East through strength and undoing all its adversaries. While the Biden administration apparently has no intention to respond with nuclear weapons to Iranian biological weapons attacks against the American homeland, Israel has an offensive nuclear weapons doctrine of responding to Iranian chemical weapons attacks against Israeli cities with Israeli nuclear strikes against Iranian targets, including most likely against the Iranian clerical capital city of Qom. America can impose a no-fly zone on Iran and provide air support to insurgents in response to Iranian biological weapons attacks against the American homeland after Israel and America destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program. In the worst case scenario will America have to invade and liberate the entire Iran. Israel realistically envisions Median Jewry returning to affluent Israel after 27 centuries in exile while Mahdist Iran envisions Israel destroyed, the House of Saud unseated and the Khomeinist eschatological region (the Fertile Crescent and the Arabian Peninsula) under Iranian control and with that the reappearance of the Hidden Imam.

Hezbollah Suffers From Hubris

Hassan Nasrallah miscalculated in 2006 and he is miscalculating again and threatening war over the Karish gas field. Nasrallah and his Iranian sponsors are projecting their own misconceptions upon Israel and therefore assume that Israel is afraid of war with the Hezbollah-led Iranian axis. It is true that the Axis will be able to inflict far more damage on Israel than the Yom Kippur War and with the use of chemical weapons may the Israeli casualty rate number in the tens of thousands. Iran and Hezbollah of course are absolutely convinced that they will be able to destroy Israel. However, while this is a patently false belief, it is certainly true that Israel has much to fear from war with the Axis. Yet, this ignores that Israel has much to win from a war, including annexing Median Jewish (Alawite and Druze) regions of Lebanon and Syria and establishing an indigenous Aramean state in parts of Lebanon while affecting regime change in Syria with the PYD (Democratic Union Party) becoming the new government in Damascus. This means peace in the north with both Syria and Aram. In fact, Israel is extremely eager for this war since this will establish perpetual peace, remove a growing threat against the Jewish state while liberating 4 million Median Jews and bring them under Israeli sovereignty. What is clear is that Nasrallah as usual is delusional and drunk on Mahdism.

The US Needs a Deterrence Strategy Against Iran

There is no question that in the long term China poses the greatest strategic challenge to US interests worldwide, but in the short term, Iran is the greatest threat to the American homeland. The threat of Iran attacking America with biological weapons brought to America’s coastlines with Iranian submarines and deployed after America and Israel destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program will potentially lead to the death of millions of innocent American civilians, a greater calamity than the American Civil War. Yet, the US government is still engaged in policies of desperate appeasement without even having articulated a credible policy of deterrence. 

Deterring Tehran is however easier said than done. Generally speaking, is it relatively easy to tactically deter Iran, yet it is very difficult to strategically deter Tehran. Israel knows this and is very successful at tactically deterring Iran but is yet to succeed at strategically deterring Tehran. With regard to nuclear weapons, the clerical city of Qom is an obvious target for a strategic nuclear weapons strike. Yet of course, the ruling Khomeinist elite will obviously argue that the theologians and religious students of Qom will go straight to heaven where they will each every day receive 72 virgins. This illustrates the immense difficulty in deterring Iran on the strategic level.

A no-fly zone over Iran with air support to insurgents will very likely prove highly effective in bringing down the regime. Yet, the regime does not agree with this prognosis and does not fear this scenario at all or it would not continue on its current path of seeking nuclear weapons at any price.

What about a US invasion of Iran? The Khomeinist elite does not really fear this either. They understand that it will be very difficult for the US to liberate the entire Iran and afterwards the IRGC will engage in guerrilla warfare for years to come. The Khomeinists believe that they will win in the end just like the Taliban did in Afghanistan and so the Khomeinists do not fear this scenario either.

Nevertheless, the US government must publicly declare its readiness to deploy all three options. Merely because deterring death-desiring Jihadist members of a murderous apocalyptic cult is exceedingly difficult, does not mean that the United States government should be desisting from attempting to deter Iran as is effectively the case now. Iran was deterred by the George W. Bush administration into freezing its nuclear weapons program after the US invaded Afghanistan and Iraq and so it is certainly possible to deter Iran. The US must gather its best and brightest to come up with a comprehensive strategy for deterring Iran from attacking major American cities with biological weapons.

Iran Poses a Greater Threat to the US than to Israel

America’s adversaries, including Iran, fear Republican administrations but certainly not Democratic administrations. Why is this so? Democratic administrations are more concerned about human rights while Republican administrations are more concerned about realpolitik. The real question is therefore whether the Iranian nuclear weapons program will be destroyed under the current Democratic administration or under the next administration which will very likely be Republican. The US knows that it will be subjected to Iranian retaliation irrespective of whether it takes part in the destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program and so there is no point in opting out.

Iran’s foreign minister the other day pointed out that it is not only the US that has a Plan B, but that Iran also has a Plan B. What is this Iranian Plan B? The Iranian leadership views an American-Israeli attack on their nuclear weapons program as a divine sign that it is time for the Khomeinist apocalypse. Iran will attack the American homeland with biological weapons, invade GCC nations, attack Israel with chemical weapons in order to destroy the the Jewish state and quite possibly use chemical weapons against European nations deemed “Islamophobic”, all with the purpose of prompting the reappearance of the Hidden Imam in an Iranian-controlled Mecca.

The reality however is that America is much safer under Republican administrations due to Republican presidents being ready to respond with nuclear weapons against Iran for attacking America with biological weapons. How many will die in America from biological weapons? Possibly millions. This is the worst threat against American national security since the Civil War.

The Biden administration has declared that America has lost nothing by insisting on negotiating with Iran. Of course, it is very understandable that Washington seeks an agreement with Tehran considering the scope of the threat from Tehran. However, Tehran has no interest in an agreement for the simple reason that electric vehicles inevitably in the future will replace those powered by gasoline and diesel, thus depriving Iran of its great power status. Iran must thus act timely to break out as a nuclear power and then conquer the GCC and destroy Israel so as to become a superpower with global reach able to extort America’s allies through the power of oil and conquer the rest of Islamdom. Thus, primarily because of Elon Musk and Tesla, Iran is no longer interested in the JCPOA. It is understandable that the US wants to explore every possible diplomatic avenue but this will lead nowhere. On the contrary, negotiations are dangerous because this sends the message that America is weak, afraid, desperate for an agreement at any price and will not retaliate with nuclear weapons.

The Lapid government has changed Israel’s nuclear doctrine which used to be that Israel would not introduce nuclear weapons into the Middle East. The new Israeli nuclear doctrine is that Israel will not only use nuclear nuclear weapons defensively (i.e. in response to a nuclear attack) but also offensively. What does this curious wording refer to? It means that Israel will use nuclear weapons against Iran if the Iranian axis attacks Israeli cities with chemical weapons.

The United States needs to adopt a similar deterrence posture against Iran. President Biden would be particularly well-advised to immediately fire his appeaser-in-chief Rob Malley as keeping him in place undermines confidence in America among Arab allies, end the fruitless so-called “negotiations” with Iran and officially declare that America will nuke a number of Iranian cities if Iran attacks the American homeland with biological weapons. It is surely about time to put American interests first! Israel is able to defend itself but who is looking out for American interests? At present it appears, no one. Rather, the obviously well-intentioned, yet inept Biden administration has severely undermined American national security and completely undone American deterrence vis-a-vis Iran. America is under threat like never before and official American policy is making the situation worse. This is certainly not a partisan critique of the Biden administration as I am not an American but is made out of genuine concern for the national security of Israel’s best friend.

One Trillion USD in R&D on Sustainable Technologies Would Resolve the Climate Crisis Within Ten Years

Many Western governments are investing massively in subsidies and investments for the introduction of sustainable technologies as seen in the recent package that was narrowly passed by the US Congress. This is severely misguided. A much better use of that money is to invest those huge resources on R&D in sustainable technologies. It is time to think big and realize that societal transitions nowadays are led by technological change in the private sector. If one trillion US dollars were invested in R&D on sustainable technologies, that would undoubtedly resolve all outstanding climate-related issues within ten years. But no, our politicians are wasting valuable resources by spending money; both on useless subsidies and on “investments” that should be done by the private sector. To imagine that politicians will be able to resolve the climate crisis is pure hubris and has been proven over and over again to be misguided and impossible. It is not yet possible technologically, it is not politically possible domestically and certainly not internationally possible due to lack of international political unity. What is rather needed is gargantuan public investment in research and development of sustainable technologies such as cellular agriculture and making the strategic decision to eventually outlaw all technologies and industries that are harmful to the climate. Furthermore, if the United States government were to invest one trillion US dollars on R&D on sustainable technologies, that would put the United States economy in a tremendous leadership position and give it a significant lead over China.

What is Behind the Gaza Blood Libels?

During and after Operation Breaking Dawn in Gaza, the usual blood libels proliferated. Jews are once more accused of murdering (i.e. intentionally killing) children and Israel is accused against all evidence of targeting civilians. Some governments are simply as usual echoing the standard Anti-Semitic propaganda of the Palestinian Authority while others are making independent Anti-Semitic judgements. It is admittedly difficult to argue with Anti-Semites, but most world leaders who sanction such official Anti-Semitic rhetoric don’t regard themselves as Anti-Semites and the vast majority of governments that peddled blood libels during and after the Gaza operation certainly do not regard themselves as Anti-Semitic. So why are Erdogan who is killing without reason in Syria and Putin who is killing without reason in Ukraine sanctioning blood libels against Israel which is merely defending itself against genocidal Gaza Jihadists? Both demand that Israel engage in warfare without causing any human collateral damage whatsoever (something which simply is not possible in warfare in an urban context) despite Turkey and Russia causing extensive human collateral damage in Syria/Iraq and Ukraine respectively. What could possibly explain this curious double standard other than creating a unique Anti-Jewish standard effectively making it impossible and therefore illegitimate for the Jewish state to defend itself? (Jews were legally prohibited from defending themselves in both Islamdom and Christendom in medieval times and so this sentiment still lingers.) While those governments that simply spout the official Ramallah talking points are difficult to argue with, other governments that engage in Anti-Israel blood libels do sincerely wish to influence Israeli policy. However, how can they imagine influencing the Israeli government through bigotry? This is senseless! No one would imagine influencing Muslim governments by articulating Islamophobia and so why do some governments ignorantly delude themselves that Anti-Semitic attacks on Israel are effective means for influencing Israeli policy? The explanation is that there is an astounding ignorance about Anti-Semitism in the international community and this is why it is tolerated and even espoused even by many of those who nominally oppose Anti-Semitism.

The PA Will Learn Neither From the Past nor From the Future

There was once upon a time when the fate of ten Assyrian-deported tribes of the northern Kingdom of Israel was unknown, but no longer so, the entire international community is keenly aware of the whereabouts of the tens of millions of their endogamous descendants although this is not yet known to the general public.

What happened to the two-state solution? This is still the preferred outcome for the international community, but there is now another option on the horizon should the two-state solution not materialize which of course it will not since neither side is interested in that panacea.

Obviously, if the Palestinian side was seriously interested in a two-state solution (which of course they are not!) now prior to Israeli elections would be the time to woo the Israeli public before Median Jewish mass immigration in the many millions commences and the Israeli public realizes that redeeming and enfranchising the entire Judea and Samaria is the preferable option. But no, we should expect no such change of heart. Rather, we should expect more delegitimization, defamation, discrimination and double standards against the indigenous Jewish nation state.  

Nothing will in fact persuade the PA to change strategy despite Ramallah knowing full well that it will eventually be dismantled once at least 10 million Median Jews have immigrated to Israel.

What can explain this behavior? Palestinian rejectionism is of course deeply ingrained since the very inception of Zionism and Ramallah refuses to learn from historical Palestinian mistakes and it would appear that it refuses to learn from the future as well.

However, one possible explanation is that the PA is not actually terribly dissatisfied with Israel incorporating the entire Judea and Samaria and Jordan annexing Gaza. Why is this so? Because this outcome is actually good for the Palestinians living in those regions and the PLO plans to continue to campaign until the end of times for the purported “right-of-return” for viciously Anti-Zionist descendants of ex-refugees.

Of course it is true that the campaign for the ostensible “right-of-return” will never end and the PLO will of course vigorously contest what will be increasing international recognition of Israeli sovereignty in Judea and Samaria and Jordanian sovereignty in Gaza. Nevertheless, the conflict will be over for all practical purposes and the international community knows it. In fact, the international community is diplomatically in a post-conflict mode as it has already recognized that there is a definitive political solution should the two-state solution not materialize, which of course it will not. 

One might think that the PA would prioritize its own survival as a polity but not so. Few in the international community have put much thought into considering whether a two-state solution really holds any attraction to the Palestinian leadership and it really does not. The PLO only officially adopted the two-state solution as a tactical ploy. The PA will not change its strategy despite this leading to the PA itself becoming dismantled.

The Khomeinists are Drunk on Mahdism

International Iran experts are consistently behind the curve in missing how Iran’s current rulers are influenced by Mahdism. What is behind the most recent threats by Hassan Nasrallah against Israel concerning the gas rigs in Israel’s exclusive economic zone? Nasrallah, like other leading Khomeinists, genuinely and strongly believe that the Hezbollah-led Iranian axis has the capability to destroy Israel. He therefore believes that he can frighten Israel into conceding parts of its gas fields by threatening Israel with war. Nasrallah is the barking small dog that believes that he is a big dog. Yet Iran also recognizes that most governments in the Middle East increasingly rely on Israel for their security and is determined to sweep away all those governments. The Khomeinists understand that control over those countries would transform Iran into a superpower through the extortionist power of oil and by giving other countries only conditional access to the Suez Canal. According to Islam are the Jews followers of the Dajjal (the Deceitful Messiah) who will be killed by Jesus and the Jews too will become totally defeated. In fact, Khomeinists believe that the destruction of Israel is a precondition for the reappearance of the Hidden Imam. The Khomeinists believe that with Israel destroyed will the other countries in the Middle East fall like dominoes. 

Governments in the Middle East unlike the international Iran experts understand how the Khomeinists think and do understand perfectly well that their only 100% reliable ally is Israel. They do not at this point want to publicly confront or risk humiliating Iran’s rulers and therefore keep their defense relations with Israel below the public radar. Yet, the reality is that a Middle Eastern NATO is by any standard very rapidly being put in place as the new regional security architecture in the Middle East is being quickly constructed. Yes, this is not an arrangement between Arab states but an arrangement between Israel and individual Arab states and so is different from the multilateral NATO as the Arabs trust neither America nor each other but they do trust Israel because they understand and appreciate Israel’s existential interests vis-a-vis Iran.

Iran has a Timeline

Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah has given a television interview in giving us some insight into how the Khomeinist elite currently conceive of messianic time. Khomeinism of course is unique in that it is the only form of Islamism that is apocalyptic. Nasrallah referred to some news reports from the US and Israeli media as indications that the downfall of Israel is imminent in the years to come. However, this was not particularly convincing to say the least as it was obvious that other factors that he did not mention accounted for his prediction.The Khomeinist elite rightly recognize the Iranian nuclear weapons program as a gamechanger. Nasrallah stated that he envisioned Israeli Jews fleeing from Israel.

The destruction of Israel is central for Khomeinist ideologues because they regard it as a precondition for the reappearance of the Hidden Imam. Of course the Iranian regime generally believe that they need to be in control of the Khomeinist eschatological region as a whole and in particular the cities of Mecca (where the Hidden Imam will appear), Jerusalem (where the Dajjal, the deceitful messiah will appear) and Damascus (where Jesus will appear) where Iran already of course is in indirect control through the dependent pseudo-Shiite Assad regime.  

For Khomeinist ideologists will their trajectory to regional hegemony become inevitable once they have acquired nuclear weapons capability. The Khomeinist theo-strategists assume that no one will prevent them from developing nuclear weapons because they believe that the price for doing so will be too high. Khomeinist thinkers believe that they are forcing time and propelling the Hidden Imam to reappear by accelerating their nuclear weapons program. They understand all too well that time is short due to Elon Musk and Tesla and that Iran must act to conquer the Khomeinist eschatological region long before gasoline and diesel are phased out in favor of electric motors as once that happens will Iran become dirt poor and there will be little remaining geostrategic benefit in conquering the Khomeinist eschatological region as Iran won’t be able to extort the world with the power of Gulf oil and so Israel will be left as the remaining regional hegemon.

There is no question that Iran is acting according to its own timeline, they know that they have limited time at their disposal to prompt the Hidden Imam to reappear whom they plan to install as the global ruler and they must use the time well and so returning to the JCPOA certainly is not in the cards since that would endanger the Iranian plan. There is simply no time for once more deferring the Iranian nuclear weapons program considering the accelerated development of electric vehicles.

The Success of Russian Psychological Warfare

Russia is currently suffering tactical military defeat on the battlefield in Ukraine and is exhausting its military assets. Yet the outcome is still a stalemate and a military deadlock on the battlefield. However, the Russians are prevailing on the strategic level because they are succeeding in their psychological warfare against NATO and the United States. How is this so? The West led by the United States is deliberately providing Ukraine with far too little weaponry so as to not shift the balance of power on the battlefield and thus cause Kyiv to prevail strategically and kick out every last Russian occupying soldier from Ukrainian sovereign soil. Yet, Russian psychological warfare has convinced the West that sufficiently arming Kyiv would lead to escalation between Russia and NATO, including the use of tactical nuclear weapons against NATO nations. This reading of Russia’s intentions is of course taken directly from Russian propaganda and nothing could be further from the truth. 

The reality is that Moscow has failed in Ukraine and what is needed is Ukrainian strategic victory in order to change the Russian calculus and force Russia to realign itself with the West against China. Russian propaganda tells us that NATO is an offensive alliance with designs for Russian territory. If so, why did not NATO act against Russia when the country was weak after the dissolution of the Soviet Union? Of course this is not even paranoia, this is sheer propaganda and complete nonsense. Obviously this is not something that the shrewd and coldly calculating leaders in the Kremlin themselves believe in.

While Moscow and Beijing each for their own reasons are playing it nice to each for now is the reality that Han civilization has expanded through colonization for thousands of years and it is still happening in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and Tibet. China covets the vast thinly populated spaces of Asia that neighbor China to its west and north, including Siberia and both Moscow and Beijing are well aware that military confrontation between the two is inevitable in due time. For Russia prior to the invasion of Ukraine was the plan to conquer the entire Europe so that Moscow would once more become a superpower thus able to resist Beijing. However, considering Russia’s inability to conquer Ukraine, how could they conceivably conquer the European Union? Using tactical nuclear weapons would not help them substantially advance on the ground because they fundamentally do not have the conventional military ability to conquer Europe.

There is no Russian military threat against Europe because of Russian military incompetence, corruption and low morale. What is needed now is to push out Russia from Ukraine in order to end its Ukraine adventure and force Moscow to realign with Washington against Beijing. The democratic interest of defending Ukraine’s sovereignty aligns perfectly with the realpolitik of surrounding China from all directions and so kicking out Russia from Ukraine will achieve precisely that end.

Strategic victory is within reach in Ukraine, all that is needed is a strategic reassessment in Washington in favor of strategic victory in Ukraine that would lead to vastly increased supply of weaponry to Kyiv. World War in Europe has already been avoided due to Russian ineptness. What is required now is a strategic decision that will successfully end the war in Ukraine and prevent World War further down the line in Asia by realigning Moscow with Washington.

What options will Moscow have after it is driven out of Ukraine? Attacking NATO? Obviously not. That would be disastrous for the Russian side which would gain absolutely nothing from such a misadventure. President Putin is no fool and remains coldly calculating and his only success so far in this conflict is in deluding Western intelligence services.

Genocide Begins with Words

Genocides are discursive phenomena in the sense that they begin with words and end in bloodshed. The war on Israel has always been about exterminating the Jews although that goal is usually not explicitly spelled out. How is that so? There is a consensus in Palestinian society that the Jews will have to be completely removed from the land of Israel. However, Palestinian leaders always recognized that there was nowhere to deport Israeli Jewry and hence there was always in there mind no alternative to genocide.

The current war on Israel is primarily waged in American universities and it is very successful since supporters of Israel have so far offered little discursive resistance in academia. The long term goal is apparently to break up the Israeli-American alliance, something which would cause Israel to realign with China. So it would not destroy Israel and it would not cause genocide, in fact nothing would change but it would cause major damage to American interests.

The urgency of creating a Jewish subfield in critical theory, a Jewish critical theory no less, requires the State of Israel to prioritize and invest major resources into developing this subfield in recognizing that this is indeed of far greater strategic importance than the Iron Dome. Yes, this is about protecting the American-Israeli special relationship for the long term, something which serves both nations well.

Yet this is also about investing in Jewish soft power in academia. 45 years have passed since Edward Said published “Orientalism” in 1977 and that notoriously Anti-Semitic book has caused an academic revolution which is still ongoing in terms of how scholars view and increasingly demonize Israel. Yes, other scholars have published numerous books to rebut “Postcolonialism”, “Postmodernism”, “Intersectionality” and “Critical Race Theory”, all paradigms which are used to demean, stigmatize and demonize the Jews, the Jewish state and the Zionist movement. This however is ineffective, Jewish critical theory must argue from the point of Jewish indigeneity in the land of Israel as Jews and Samaritans are the two indigenous peoples of the land. For its epistemological credibility, Jewish critical theory needs to be authentically Jewish in deploying the discursive tactics/strategies of the rabbis of the Talmud (both the Babylonian Talmud and the Jerusalem Talmud) and other rabbinical literature in the scientific context of critical studies.

What is critical theory? It is the academic field of the oppressed and it was originally founded by a group of Jewish scholars fleeing Nazi Germany for America in the 1930s. From a Jewish perspective, the problem is not only that the field has been hijacked by Anti-Semites but that Jews and Zionists have allowed this to happen without resistance. The real underlying problem is that Jews and Zionists have failed to articulate issues such as the Holocaust, Jewish indigeneity, terrorism/Jihadism, Anti-Jewish persecution, Anti-Semitism, (including e.g. the history of Jews being oppressed in Palestinian society and Islamdom) in terms of critical theory. We have failed to explain that when we expelled Palestinians in 1947-49 was the alternative a Second Holocaust against the Jewish people and that we are still battling an indigenous revolution against a malicious global Anti-Semitic onslaught with genocidal intent. The subtext of the so-called “right of return” is indeed completing the failed genocide of 1947. This battle needs to be fought in academia as it must be emphasized that oppression is always discursive and so is the oppression against the Jews and hence we must discredit the false claims that Palestinians are an oppressed group and reclaim the lost status of the Jews as a bona fide oppressed group. Much work must be done and this must be done within critical theory itself. The future of the American-Israeli special relationship is at stake.

Israel has Leverage

Russia is now demanding the closure of the Jewish Agency in Russia, apparently as retaliation for Israel’s neutrality on the Ukraine conflict. However, there is something that Ukraine long has obviously been seeking help with from Israel and that is American Jewish organizations lobbying the US government on behalf of Kyiv. While there is no lack of sympathy among Jews for the Ukrainian cause the Jewish people has for various reasons chosen to stay neutral in the conflict. Although President Putin has no record of Anti-Semitism, this decision of his is however unprecented in the post-Soviet era. The Israeli government should tell the Russian government that unless Moscow rescinds the closure of the Jewish Agency in Russia will Israel respond in kind by requesting that major American Jewish organizations begin lobbying the US government to seriously arm Ukraine in order to achieve strategic military victory and kick out every last Russian occupying soldier from sovereign Ukrainian soil. Will this lead to diplomatic escalation between Russia and Israel? Yes, but this would give Jerusalem diplomatic leverage over Moscow and there would be room for diplomatic de-escalation and rescinding the order to close down the Jewish Agency in Russia.

It’s in Washington’s Interest to Arm Riyadh

Saudi Arabia is the largest destination for US weapons exports with some 25% of all US defense exports going to the KSA. The Biden administration has however limited weapons exports to Riyadh, leaving the Saudis little choice but to purchase Chinese or Russian arms. This is an illogical policy which harms American jobs but furthermore harms American interests in the Middle East. It is a US interest to promote optimal militarization in Saudi Arabia by strengthening the KSA militarily. Why is this so? Militarization in Saudi Arabia will deter Tehran and will thus lessen the risk of an Iranian invasion of Arabia and hence prevent US entanglement in a major Middle East war. Regarding the war in Yemen should Washington pursue a strategic dialogue with Riyadh as to how the Saudis plan to attain victory or otherwise bring that conflict to an end. The war in Yemen is tragic but Washington must prioritize US strategic interests which is preventing the United States from becoming entangled in a Saudi-Iranian war which it inevitably would be were Iran to invade Saudi Arabia.

Israel is the Core of the New Regional Alignment

As expected, there was no official statement by the participating statesmen in Jeddah. Some observers claimed that this proved that Biden’s visit was a failure but Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid pointed out that many things had been achieved with Biden’s visit that it will take years until it will become possible to talk publicly about it. What is certainly true however is that a regional security alignment would not be possible without Israel which is the epicenter of the emerging alliance. The Arab nations of the region are not so much aligned with each other but each aligned nation is separately aligned with Israel and each aligned nation will benefit tremendously from transfers of advanced Israeli military technologies. Furthermore, each aligned Arab nation is not merely aligned with Israel but is engaged in a triangular relationship with Jerusalem and Washington. Whether an aligned Arab nation has official diplomatic relations with Israel has become completely and utterly irrelevant as the regional security architecture is rapidly being erected throughout the region.

KSA is Ready for Liberalization but not Democratization

Democratization is highly problematic in the Muslim world due to the popularity of Islamist movements. What is the point of democratizing and holding elections if this leads to Islamist totalitarians coming to power? Yet, democracy has proven possible to varying degrees in some Muslim nations. Saudi Arabia is the most conservative country in the Muslim world and which is now undergoing a carefully calibrated liberal revolution. However, if MBS were to also democratize would the result be the opposite of liberalization, namely Islamization. The US should as part of a bargain for a USA-KSA defense pact strongly demand that Saudi domestic intelligence ceases torturing detainees, however to make sweeping demands for human rights beyond that is a mistake and harms American interests. MBS knows his country and knows precisely what he is doing. To democratize Saudi Arabia is incompatible with liberalization and would be a severe strategic mistake. President Biden must face the reality that there can either be liberalization in Saudi Arabia or Islamization which is the inevitable result of democratization. President Joe Biden and Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman apparently had a difficult conversation in Jeddah. Democratization could come further down the road in perhaps some 25 years but now it is unrealistic and profoundly dangerous. President Biden should certainly press for democratization in Muslim nations where public opinion support liberal democracy but would be particularly well-advised to refrain from doing so in nations such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt where the majority still support Islamist totalitarianism.

Nothing Except Military Action Will Stop Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program

There was a disagreement during the meeting in Israel between President Biden and Prime Minister Lapid on the question of Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Prime Minister Lapid insisted that only deterrence would persuade Iran to sign a nuclear agreement while President Biden insisted that diplomacy was still the best way forward. Both are wrong since they both assume that Iran is interested in a nuclear agreement as opposed to playing for time in order to appease Moscow and Beijing and provide de facto international legitimacy for Iran’s nuclear weapons program. While it is true that at present Iran is convinced that the US and Israel are bluffing and have no intention of destroying the Iranian nuclear weapons program, if this perception were to change, nothing would change in Iran’s nuclear policy. In fact, Iran is taking no chances and has long been preparing itself for an attack by moving its nuclear program deep underground with the idea being that the nuclear weapons program will be able to withstand a strategic attack. 

Why doesn’t Iran want an agreement? Gasoline and diesel vehicles will be phased out in the coming decades, perhaps as soon as the mid 2030s. This affects Iran’s schedule for taking over the GCC states and becoming a superpower. This is the main reason for not rejoining the JCPOA but there are other reasons as well. Iran knows that Donald Trump will return to the White House in January 2025 and so any agreement to return to the JCPOA will thus be promptly abbrograted in 2025. The international business community knows this and thus there will be neither long term international trade relations with Iran nor international investments in Iran during Biden’s remaining two years in power. While game theory suggests that Iran could be bought off for this two-year period, this is not how the ruling mullahs think, they are not interested in losing precious uranium enrichment time in return for a massive infusion of oil revenues. Iranian leaders work according to their own strategic game plan and have simply no interest in being manipulated in this respect or any other by the United States.

Rather the United States government should think about its own national security. How can the US government safeguard the American homeland so that Iranian terrorist cells do not attack major American cities with biological weapons after America and Israel destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program? The one thing that would do the most to safeguard American national security would be a USA-KSA defense pact. This is so as the theo-strategists in Tehran and Qom assume that Iran must be in control over Saudi Arabia when the Hidden Imam appears in Mecca. Furthermore, one million US troops stationed in Saudi Arabia prior to the attack on the Iranian nuclear weapons program could very effectively deter Iran from launching its apocalyptic Plan B. The present Iranian WMD threat against the American homeland is very serious indeed, far more than the Iranian WMD threat against Israel. This is so because Iran would use biological weapons against the US but would merely use chemical weapons against Israel in order to not harm the Palestinians.

This is the time to shatter illusions and instead commence building an international coalition against Iran. The Iranian threat is most severe indeed and must be preempted so entertaining illusions is not very helpful to put things mildly.

Undermining the KSA is not a US Interest

Are there currently negotiations underway for a KSA-USA defense pact? There are strong indications that this is indeed the case as this is very strongly in the interest of both nations, not to mention other regional nations. However, negotiations appear to be delayed by US human rights demands. The US needs to be cognizant that the process of liberalization in Saudi Arabia is a highly sensitive one that is being carefully calibrated by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. MBS knows perfectly well the fate of the last Shah of Iran who had a similar agenda to that of MBS. Therefore rushing the process is very dangerous and could unleash forces inimical to liberalization and could furthermore undermine the Kingdom and its stability. That said, the US has legitimate human rights concerns, however MBS like the former Shah is pursuing liberalization with an iron first in a country with overwhelmingly Islamist public opinion. While it is true that there is a new Americanized young generation with liberal values in Saudi Arabia, this is not true for the older generations. The US government should certainly demand that all torture ends in the KSA but beyond that should it be careful about rushing its human rights agenda in the Desert Kingdom. President Biden should keep in mind that political stability in Saudi Arabia is an overriding US national interest as it is essential to ensure that liberalization in the KSA does not end up the way it ended up in Iran in 1979.

A Bipartisan Strategy for Great Power Competition for the Next 50 Years

There is not much disagreement between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party on Russia and China and there won’t be on Iran once the negotiation track is definitely declared dead. What is needed is a threepronged bipartisan global strategy for the next 50 years. Russia, China and Iran each require a unique strategy of containment leading to victory and the three strategies must complement each other.

It is essential that the two parties in Congress agree on an integrated global meta-strategy so that such a bipartisan consensus would be effectively binding on all presidents whether Republican or Democrat. It is vital that leaders of Congress reach across the aisle to form such a bipartisan covenant that would guide in the coming great power competition for the next 50 years. Continuity in US foreign policy strategy is absolutely essential considering how longterm Russia, China and Iran are in their respective international strategies. 

However, it is not my purpose here to draw up comprehensive strategies but let me just highlight some key points:

Russia

Moscow must be comprehensively defeated in Ukraine and forced to withdraw all its forces from every inch of sovereign Ukrainian territory and this can be attained by providing Ukraine with sufficient weapons. Russia is motivated in its quest to conquer Ukraine and ultimately the rest of Europe by its fear of China and Beijing’s designs for Siberia. By defeating Russia can Moscow subsequently be co-opted into an international alliance that would surround, encircle and contain China in order to prevent Chinese territorial expansionism. Furthermore, in order to deter and co-opt Moscow, Washington must strongly pressure EU member governments to form a unified European military. 

Iran

Any Iran strategy must be based on the dictum “know thy enemy”, meaning understanding Iran’s theo-strategy must be at the core of any US strategy. Iran wants the Fertile Crescent and Arabia because the three Messianic figures (the Hidden Imam in Mecca, Jesus in Damascus and the Dajjal in Jerusalem) are slated to appear there with subsequent eschatological, apocalyptic and messianic events. US national security is under severe threat as Iran plans a global WMD apocalypse including using biological weapons against major US cities. The strategy must be based on convincing Iran’s leaders by various means that the end times are far from imminent and that they will not prevail.

China

The competition with China requires a comprehensive strategy for global democratization, including the creation of a global free-trade zone for liberal democracies only, a universal court of that can overrule laws and government decisions which contradict a new universal charter of liberal democracy and there needs to be a new international defense alliance for liberal democracies. The US alone cannot in the long term compete against China considering the much larger demographic size of China and that China will almost inevitably catch up economically with the United States. Hence the need for a global democratic commonwealth that can compete as a US-led collective against China. There would be particularly strong economic incentives for non-democracies to democratize, liberalize and join such a commonwealth considering that international investors would be highly likely to prefer commonwealth members as destinations for foreign investment. This is so as the democratic commonwealth would offer investors long term economic safety both in terms of national security and political stability.

Can Iran’s Apocalyptic Scheme be Thwarted?

If Iran did not believe that Iranian territorial control over the Twelver eschatological region was essential for the success of the planned Khomeinist man-made apocalypse as intended to prompt the reappearance of the Hidden Imam in Mecca, then surely Iran would not be so geostrategically obsessed with taking control over this region where the three Islamic Messianic figures of the Mahdi (identified by Twelvers with the Hidden Imam), the Dajjal (the Deceitful Messiah) and Jesus are expected to appear in Mecca, Jerusalem and Damascus respectively. Surely this is not just about the Gulf oil although undoubtedly strategically crucial to the Iranian calculus. Tehran’s theologians believe that messianic eschatological events will play out in the area and that it therefore is essential that Iran controls the entire Twelver eschatological region. Currently the militarily vulnerable GCC lies open for Iranian conquest with the ruling mullahs assuming that President Biden will not come to the defense of Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Gulf states. This apparent Iranian calculation is very dangerous and indeed highly destabilizing and is based upon the dangerous perception among international adversaries of the United States that the Biden administration is “weak”.  The regime furthermore believes that the (inevitable) American-Israeli destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program is a divine sign that it is time to commence the Khomeinist WMD global apocalypse.

Iran believes that the Iranian Axis will be able to paralyze and destroy Israel with rockets, missiles, drones and chemical weapons and then get hold of its nuclear weapons arsenals once it is defeated. This Iranian perception is severely misguided and mistaken but it is evidenced by countless statements by Iranian officials in recent years expressing confidence in the Iranian Axis’ ability to destroy Israel. There is no doubt that Israel will take a severe beating when Iran and its proxies within the course of a week unleashes their entire arsenal in a frontal assault intended to destroy Israel and the Israeli government is not yet preparing the Israeli public for what will be far worse than the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Yet Israel is strong and will prevail provided that it is not prevented by Washington from destroying Hezbollah, liberating Lebanon and Syria and establishing peace with an Aramean state and a PYD-led government in Damascus with Median Jewish (Alawite and Druze) regions of Syria and Lebanon annexed to Israel through a trilateral peace agreement between Jerusalem, Beirut and Damascus.

Saudi Arabia and the other GCC nations are a different matter though as the Iranian military is vastly larger than the Saudi one despite Saudi Arabia having a modern air force and Iran not yet having one. Tehran’s perception is that both Israel and Saudi Arabia are ripe fruits ready to be picked and Iran is thus ready for escalation and hence also prepared to instigate the global WMD apocalypse which particularly includes mass biological terrorist attacks against major US cities with the goal of impressing upon the American public the need for leaving Islamdom entirely and abandoning Israel. 

A Middle Eastern NATO to the inclusion of both Israel and the United States would be ideal but a more realistic goal initially would be a defense pact between the USA and the KSA. Such a defense alliance would prevent escalation in the region by holding back Iran from invading Saudi Arabia and thus also the other Gulf states. Most importantly would it protect the American homeland from Iranian biological weapons terrorist attacks since Tehran would not trigger the global WMD apocalypse without also simultaneously taking control over Mecca where the Hidden Imam is slated to reappear. President Biden should not be expected to sign a defense pact with the KSA out of affection for MBS but rather out of concern for protecting the lives of millions of Americans and defending American interests as an Iran in control over the GCC countries would be able to extort US allies through the oil weapon and effectively supplant the US as the global hegemon. Make no mistake, no international agreement than the prospective USA-KSA defense pact was ever more crucial to American national security and America’s stature in the world.

Iran’s Window of Opportunity

Iranian senior officials openly and publicly state that their overarching strategy is to prompt the reappearance of the Hidden Imam in Mecca leading to global Khomeinist theocratic rule. One crucial factor which is closing the window on Iranian eschatological imperialism is however the advent of electric vehicles. The electric vehicle industry has changed much since 2015 when Iran signed the JCPOA and from Iran’s perspective it does not make sense to waste valuable time since Iran within its current borders will cease to be a great power once gasoline and diesel vehicles are universally phased out. Iran’s only chance is to break out, conquer the GCC and create a great empire in Islamdom while oil is still used on a grand scale. Despite their great hopes in the coming of the Hidden Imam, Iranian leaders understand perfectly well the necessity of brute force and conquest. Phasing out oil was not yet on the horizon in 2015 but now it is thanks to Elon Musk and Tesla and that means that Iran must speed up its imperialist-eschatological project simply due to lack of time. This is the most important reason (albeit not the only one) why Iran is not interested in returning to the JCPOA, Iran must simply hurry to develop nuclear weapons in order to obtain nuclear impunity for regional conquest and global apocalyptic WMD terror war.

Once Iran Conquers the Gulf States

Iran is bent on taking control over the Twelver eschatological region which includes the cities of Mecca, Jerusalem and Damascus where the Islamic messianic figures of the Mahdi (identified by Twelvers with the Hidden Imam), the Dajjal (the Deceitful Messiah) and Jesus are slated to appear at the conclusion of Islamic history. Control over this region with its immense oil resources will transform Iran into a superpower and so it would be completely unwise from Iran’s imperialist perspective to defer its conquest of Saudi Arabia and the other GCC states until the end of the oil era considering that Iran will be able to use the oil resources for purposes of world conquest.

What would be the practical consequences of Iranian conquest of the GCC countries? First, Iran would be able to determine the global price of oil which would therefore become very high. Second, Iran would practice switch on and off for its new combined oil export as a form of economic terrorism. Third, Iran would institute oil embargoes against US allies around the world. Most nations would be forced to toe Iran’s line in world affairs, including China. Iran would become the new undisputed superpower replacing the United States. Iran would use its new oil wealth to fight new wars of conquest to take over the rest of Islamdom. No one would dare to stop them for fear that Tehran would use the oil weapon.

Plan A: Iran plans to conquer the GCC nations after Tehran has joined the nuclear club and then it assumes that no one will dare to oppose them.

Plan B: Iran plans to engineer a global WMD terrorist apocalypse to prompt the reappearance of the Hidden Imam if the Iranian nuclear weapons program is destroyed, these plans also include conquering the GCC nations.

Plan C: If the US successfully deters Iran from implementing the apocalypse subsequent to the destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program by means of deploying 1 million US troops in Saudi Arabia, then Iran will defer its invasion of GCC nations. The conquest will nevertheless happen as part of IRGC-engineered Shia (Twelver and Zaydi) uprisings in Saudi Arabia and Iran will “defensively” invade Saudi Arabia in support of those rebellions.

The phasing out of diesel and gasoline will happen sometime in the distant future (the European Parliament claims that it will happen in 2035) but it is nevertheless far from imminent. The United States simply cannot live with Iranian control over GCC oil fields and will therefore have to intervene militarily to reverse the Iranian conquest. This is a given. Why then is a US-Saudi defense pact necessary if the US will anyway come to the defense of Saudi Arabia? It is absolutely necessary in order to deter Iran from attacking the KSA and the other Gulf states. It is a vital US national security interest not to become entangled in war between the KSA and Iran and the way to prevent that is to deter Tehran by entering into a defense pact with Riyadh.

The Saudis are No Suckers

The US-Saudi relationship was always based on oil in return for security. There were those Americans who lately mistakenly presumed that the United States no longer needed Saudi Arabia. This is wrong. The US will need the KSA as a staging ground for any military action against Iran after Tehran lashes out against the outside world with WMD terrorist attacks subsequent to the joint American-Israeli destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Is America ready to live with permanently exorbitant gasoline/diesel prices? I think not. Iran undoubtedly plans to conquer the Gulf states and America would be particularly well advised to deter Tehran from doing that by concluding a defense pact with Riyadh. Make no mistake, the future is at stake for the KSA. While it is true that MBS is far from as adept at diplomacy as he is at domestic politics he surely has a point. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia finds itself under an existential threat from the Islamic Republic of Iran and furthermore finds itself stuck with an unsympathetic American administration that is not well disposed towards Saudi Arabia’s existential security concerns despite those overlapping entirely with American strategic interests. The Biden administration has refused to agree to a US-Saudi defense pact despite the industrialized world being at least a decade away from phasing out gasoline and diesel. 

If I were MBS I would first have fully normalized relations with Israel and then mobilized major American Jewish organizations on behalf of the cause of concluding a US-Saudi defense pact. This would have been a smart political plan. The current exorbitant oil prices does not make such a treaty an easy sell to Congress and it would be difficult to justify without full prior normalization. MBS also needs to internalize that torture must end in the Kingdom, this is intolerable and makes the KSA look very bad and rightly so. MBS does not really have a foreign policy strategy, only various tactics. In 2021 he offered the US a grand bargain, full Saudi normalization with Israel in return for a US-Saudi defense pact. The Biden administration declined the offer and MBS tried instead making America jealous by entering “extramarital relationships” with Moscow and Beijing as well as by pressuring America through exorbitant oil prices that may eventually lead the world economy into a recession. America is like all nations primarily concerned with promoting its own interests and MBS apparently failed to appropriately articulate the common American-Saudi strategic interest. Although extraordinarily brilliant, MBS is clearly a highly unconventional person and so are his strange attempts at pressuring the American superpower into entering into a defense pact with the Desert Kingdom.

The Iranians Know What They Want

After the failed talks in Doha about returning to the JCPOA are American diplomats bitterly complaining that the Iranians are seemingly unable to decide whether to resume or bury the JCPOA. This is a complete and utter misunderstanding of the Iranian position which is to have their cake and eat it too. Iran wants continued international legitimacy for advancing its nuclear weapons program and that it gets through participation in pro forma “negotiations”. For this reason are the Iranians interested in “negotiating” for as long as possible for a resumption of a JCPOA that they are evidently and manifestly not interested in and for good reasons from their perspective. Would they be interested in a new faux negotiation process ostensibly but not actually leading towards an entirely new agreement beyond the JCPOA? The Iranians say no because they want to extend the shelf-life of the JCPOA talks for as long as conceivably possible, yet it is not out question that this position will change when and if the United States decides to finally bury the JCPOA. However, the Iranian assumption is that America and Israel will not dare to destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program for fear of the devastating consequences and that Washington will allow Tehran to play for time by extending the JCPOA talks up until the point when Iran is ostensibly allowed to join the nuclear club. The Iranians assume that the American and Israeli threats are empty postures that will never be put into action. For Tehran is the continuation of the faux JCPOA “negotiations” highly effective as a play for time which divides and confuses the Americans among themselves. For how long will the Americans allow themselves to be taken advantage of for the purpose legitimizing the acceleration of the Iranian nuclear weapons program? It is of course true that the Americans and the Israelis are using the time well by preparing the military options. However, there is no reason to legitimize the Iranian nuclear weapons program which is what the Americans are effectively doing by participating in faux negotiations with Tehran. Rather, the US should end negotiations with Iran altogether because Iran has no interest in any kind of agreement with Washington and the US should instead build an international coalition against Iran, including crucially concluding a defense pact with Saudi Arabia. The Iranians know precisely what they want and that is nuclear weapons.

The Case for a Grand Strategic Bargain Between the KSA and the USA

Everyone wants something in diplomacy and the way to get it is usually through rapprochement and emphasis on common interests. MBS is an unconventional leader with a special mind; as an autistic person I can appreciate that he thinks differently than most other players in the international community and is clearly resented and perhaps even feared for that. Is MBS autistic? I don’t know and I would not speculate on that matter but his mind clearly sets him off from most other people in suggesting that he is not neurotypical. What does MBS want? A US-Saudi defense pact. What does the US want? A renewed Saudi commitment to stable oil prices. MBS is clearly playing diplomatic hardball with the international oil price in an astounding way that many people would consider reckless, yet those people need to recognize that the future of his nation is at stake and MBS is literally desperate considering the military threat from Iran. What is Israel’s view on this? Years ago Israel would have been resolutely opposed to a US-Saudi defense pact but Jerusalem would surely agree provided that complete Saudi normalization with Israel would be included in the diplomatic package. Indeed, this was the diplomatic bargain that MBS offered the US on one of Jake Sullivan’s visits to Saudi Arabia in 2021. What is clear is that direct Israeli mediation is absolutely pivotal to resolving this through strategic dialogue between Riyadh and Washington. Indeed, a US-Saudi defense pact is an Israeli interest as the KSA constitutes strategic depth between Israel and Iran and protecting that strategic depth is pivotal to Israeli national security. Clearly everything possible needs to be done to enhance, deepen and strengthen the American-Saudi-Israeli triangular relationship.

The Madrid Memorandum of Understanding

The foreign ministers of Finland, Sweden and Turkey signed a memorandum of understanding which seemingly allayed Turkey’s “concerns” regarding the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO. However, after reading the agreement four times I have come to the conclusion that it will have no practical import whatsoever. This is so because the agreement does not override Swedish and Finnish law and the only practical change – ending Sweden’s arms embargo – has no practical effect since Sweden anyway is not in the business of exporting arms to Turkey. Since there are no residents of Sweden and Finland involved in plotting terrorist attacks against Turkey will no one be extradited on terrorism charges. The HPG (People’s Defense Forces), the military arm of the PKK is involved in armed warfare – not terrorism – and which are planned from its headquarters in the Qandil Mountains, Iraqi Kurdistan and certainly not in Sweden and Finland. What is the conclusion then? Either is the Turkish government completely incompetent in having reached a utterly meaningless agreement, something which is entirely unlikely or else was Erdogan instructed by the Sabbatean-controlled Derin Devlet deep state domestic intelligence apparatus to climb down the tree which the Turkish military with its Anti-Kurdish reflexes had instructed Erdogan to climb. While the Turkish military remains extremely politically powerful in Turkish politics it is also true that the Derin Devlet also has the last word when it wants to.

A US-Saudi Defense Pact is a No-Brainer

Imagine if Iran were to invade Saudi Arabia which is not a farfetched scenario at all, in fact this is precisely what Tehran plans to do, what would the United States do? Iranian control over GCC oil wells would overnight transform Tehran into a superpower with the ability to extort US allies around the world through oil embargoes. The US would literally have no choice but to deploy a vast force to liberate the Arabian peninsula from its Iranian occupiers. Considering that the size of the Saudi military is so incomparably smaller than the Iranian military is it questionable how long the Saudis would be able to hold out without American intervention. The other Gulf states simply cannot defend themselves. Therefore a US-Saudi defense pact is simply a no-brainer. However, it is in the interest of the United States to prevent war rather than engage in war and a US-Saudi defense pact is simply the single most effective way to prevent war between Iran and the KSA and thus prevent US entanglement in the Middle East.

The US Must Learn From Ukraine War How to Prevent War in the Middle East

Why are Finland and Sweden suddenly applying for membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization? They understand the simple truth that the Russian invasion of Ukraine would never have occurred had Ukraine already been a member of NATO. NATO is not primarily an organization for waging war but above all an organization for preventing war and has successfully kept the peace in Europe ever since its inception in 1949.

For Iran, conquering Israel and Saudi Arabia is strategically absolutely pivotal. This is not only because conquering the oil resources of GCC nations will transform Iran into a superpower but because the three Islamic messianic figures, the Mahdi (identified by Twelvers with the Hidden Imam), Jesus and the Dajjal are expected to appear in Mecca, Damascus and Jerusalem respectively; hence Iran is focusing like a laser beam on taking control over the Twelver eschatological region in the Middle East. However in order to make the Hidden Imam appear in Mecca do the theo-strategists in Tehran believe that they must organize a veritable apocalypse replete with mass biological and chemical weapons terrorists attacks against major cities in nations deemed central to the ostensible American Jewish global conspiracy to destroy Islam.

Imagine if US defense planners had long before foreseen the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the US had preempted the war by inviting Kyiv to join NATO? The war could clearly have been prevented and now the US government has the opportunity to prevent another major war, this time a conflict which severely threatens the American homeland.

It is important to emphasize that the purpose of a US-Saudi defense pact is certainly not for American soldiers to fight on behalf of the KSA but rather to prevent war in the Middle East and most important to protect the American homeland from major calamity. A US-Saudi defense pact would protect regional stability and prevent international mass terrorism. It is absolutely vital to contain Iran and a US-Saudi defense pact would do precisely that.

Oil will be phased out in the coming decades as gasoline and diesel vehicles are replaced by electric vehicles. However this is far from imminent and Iran will move to conquer Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Gulf states long before oil is phased out as conquering GCC nations will transform Iran into a superpower with the ability to extort US allies through oil embargoes. What are Iran’s plans?

Plan A: Iran plans to develop nuclear weapons capability and believes that no one will prevent Tehran from doing so. Iran assumes that the United States will not wage conventional war against Iran once Iran has joined the nuclear club and that the US will therefore not intervene against an Iranian conquest of GCC nations once Tehran has nuclear weapons capability. Furthermore, Iran understands that it will be able to use biological and chemical weapons with impunity once it has nuclear deterrence capability. Biological and chemical terrorism, including against the United States, is central for Iran engineering an apocalypse that will prompt the reappearance of the Hidden Imam in an Iranian-controlled Mecca.

Plan B: If the nuclear option is denied Iran will Iran opt for apocalypse now. The goals will be 1) to compel the US to withdraw from Islamdom by killing hundreds of thousands of American civilians with biological weapons, 2) destroying Israel by means of chemical weapons and taking control over Israel’s nuclear capability and 3) conquering GCC nations; all designed to prompt the Hidden Imam to reappear.

Plan C: If Plan B is prevented by massive US troop deployment in Saudi Arabia prior to an American-Israeli destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program will Iran later resort to Plan C which means engineering Shia (Twelver and Zaydi) uprisings in Saudi Arabia and an Iranian invasion of KSA in “defensive” support of those uprisings. If there is a US-Saudi defense pact in place however, can Plan C be preempted.

A US-Saudi defensive pact is not designed to get the US mired in further Middle Eastern wars. On the contrary, it is intended to avoid precisely that by deterring Iran from attacking US allies and protecting American interests.

US-Saudi Defense Pact Will Enable US to Disengage from the Middle East

The US must make more demands from its allies around the world. They must invest far more in defense and engage more in collective security. In the case of the European Union they must build their own unified military capability to wean themselves off dependence on America. While the US needs to commit to defend Saudi Arabia in order to defend vital US geostrategic interests – namely preventing Iran from becoming a superpower that can extort US allies with the power of controlling GCC oil wells – the US needs to demand that the KSA conscripts its youth and builds a substantially larger military than at present. The purpose of a US-Saudi defense pact is precisely to prevent war in the Gulf and deter Iran from attacking major American cities with biological weapons in order to prompt the reappearance of the Hidden Imam in an Iranian-conquered Mecca. The primary purpose of NATO was never to fight WWIII, it was always to prevent WWIII. The same is true of a US-Saudi defense pact, the purpose is not war but peace. The purpose is not foreign entanglement but rather to protect the American homeland and enhance the American interest. On the other hand, opening negotiations with MBS for a US-Saudi defense pact will give Washington significant leverage over Riyadh. The US however should be very careful not to make demands that undermine the Kingdom, nevertheless Washington should certainly require that Riyadh ends all torture. The primary US demands should however be optimal Saudi military militarization, maximum regional military integration and full normalization with Israel.

Islamism is Homogenous

Apologists of Islamism seek to emphasize the differences between different Islamists and claim that some Islamists are so-called “moderates” (among Sunnis) or “reformists” (among Shias). Usually is it claimed that you can deal with some Islamist groups and regimes and cooperate and dialogue with them. The track record of this however is terrible. The “reformists” in Iran enacted zero reforms when they were in power, the reality is rather that the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism hosts the Salafist al-Qaeda. Why is this so? Islamists movements are extremely similar in political ideology and although there are sometimes conflicts (e.g. between ISIL and Iran and between ISIL and the Taliban), relations between Islamist movements are usually harmoneous simply because the ideological differences are minimal. However, many Islamists, particularly the Muslim Brotherhood are politically pragmatic and do not hesitate to lie in order to attain incremental political progress towards their ultimate political goals. While Islamists differ as to who should rule the ideal Islamist state they do not substantially disagree on the political vision of the ideal society itself.

A US-Saudi Defense Pact Would Checkmate Iran

Iranian geostrategy is focused like a laser beam on taking over the Twelver eschatological region with its immense oil resources, control over which would instantly transform Iran into a superpower able to extort America’s allies around the world. Islam has three messianic figures. These are 1) the Mahdi (identified by Twelvers with the Hidden Imam) who is expected to appear in Mecca, 2) Jesus who is expected to appear in Damascus and 3) the Dajjal (the Deceitful messiah) who is expected to appear in Jerusalem. Iran already is in indirect control of Damascus and so Mecca and Jerusalem remain for Iran to be subdued. Iran is confident that the Hezbollah-led Iranian Axis will be able to paralyze and destroy Israel with rockets, missiles, drones and chemical warheads. Although Iran still lacks a modern air force, the Iranian military forces are several times larger than the Saudi ones. While Iran is overestimating the threat the Hezbollah-led Iranian Axis poses against Israel there is no question that Iran poses a most severe direct threat against the KSA. A US-Saudi defense pact would effectively checkmate Iran’s plans for taking over the Twelver eschatological region and will force Iran to reassess its apocalyptic-imperialistic plans altogether. This is crucial considering the severe threat in terms of biological weapons terrorism that Iran poses against the American homeland. The purpose of a US-Saudi defense pact to be sure would not be for the US to fight a war for Saudi Arabia against Iran but to prevent war between Iran and Saudi Arabia altogether. It must be understood that Saudi Arabia and the GCC nations generally constitute a weak point in terms of defense which Iran undoubtedly intends to exploit at the right moment. A US-Saudi defense pact would very effectively sabotage Iran’s imperialistic plans and would eminently serve the national interests of the United States, ensure its national security and safeguard its global hegemony.

Rethinking the American-Saudi-Israeli Triangular Relationship

In a 2021 visit to Saudi Arabia by US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud offered to fully normalize relations with Israel in return for advanced American weapons sales and a US-Saudi defense pact whereby the US would promise to defend the KSA in the event Saudi Arabia was invaded by Iran. Biden turned down the offer and now we instead have an incremental model for advancement in the American-Saudi-Israeli triangular relationship. The problem remains that Biden and MBS mutually consider each other unreliable and untrustworthy and so the Israelis who arranged Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia apparently figured that an incremental model was of essence. Nevertheless, it is a fact that MBS is ready for instant total normalization with Israel at the price of a defense pact with the US. A defense pact is a worthy goal and a vital interest for the US, the KSA and Israel despite many in Washington not yet understanding the immense strategic importance Saudi Arabia holds in the Israeli-Iranian rivalry and the utmost importance for American interests of ensuring that KSA never falls into Iranian hands. It may however be more realistic to get there in quick steps. Saudi Arabia offers strategic depth for Israel and were Iran to conquer KSA and Mecca would Iran pose an immediate existential conventional military threat against the State of Israel which may even lead Israel to resort to the use of tactical nuclear weapons against Iranian forces in the Arabian desert. Major American Jewish organizations should commence lobbying the White House and Congress for rapid American-Saudi-Israeli defense integration leading towards the goal of an American-Saudi defense pact. However, Washington should also demand that Saudi security services completely cease torturing suspects. This is certainly not an unreasonable demand to make from a nation seeking a defense pact with the United States. MBS is a man of dramatic gestures, yet he would be particularly well-advised to internalize that the highway to a defense pact runs through ever closer military integration between Washington, Riyadh and Jerusalem.

Time for American-Saudi-Israeli Strategic Dialogue

Washington is fully coordinated with Jerusalem in its preparations of military options against Tehran. However, peculiar enough Riyadh has been kept outside the loop. This is very concerning considering that coordinating with the KSA is vital in preparation for air strikes against the Iranian nuclear weapons program, imposing a no-fly zone over Iran and preparing for the possibility of a US-led invasion of Iran. What is needed is a new strategic framework for preparing the military options against Iran, namely an American-Saudi-Israeli strategic forum of trilateral coordination. While American-Saudi relations have unfortunately been deep-frozen under the Biden administration and have only recently started to melt, it is now essential and urgent to advance trilateral strategic and military coordination between Washington, Riyadh and Jerusalem. Irrespective of the dispute within the Biden administration as to Tehran’s nuclear intentions, Washington must resolutely move ahead with its strategic preparations so as to be fully ready for implementation of its Plan B in complete and utter coordination with Riyadh and Jerusalem. It is vital that America stands strategically prepared with its allies and creating a trilateral forum for strategic dialogue would advance regional defense integration in the Middle East and reinforce US regional influence. There is absolutely no valid reason why the Saudis should be kept outside the loop, rather creating a trilateral forum would be an important way to upgrade the American-Saudi-Israeli triangular relationship. The Biden administration has long mismanaged its relations with Riyadh to the detriment of American interests and has only in recent months reassessed much of those policies. Keeping the Saudis out of the loop appears to be a remnant of those very counterproductive policies. This must change as America needs to already now make preparations for a US-led international coalition against Iran. Needless to say, the KSA will be one of the most important members of such an international coalition and so keeping Riyadh in the dark even at this stage simply does not make sense.

The New Heartland

Islamists all strive for world hegemony through political control over Islamdom. While it is true that Islamists hold significant power in Pakistan and Turkey, they are not in full control over those nations, neither of which is a theocracy. Iran is a different matter though as Tehran is a great power under full Islamist control with very serious neo-imperialist ambitions. It is important for Western decision makers to understand how the ruling mullahs think and reason, including in their geostrategy. For Iranian geostrategists is the world akin to Russian dolls but in reverse order from small to large. Iran is confident that each stage of neo-imperialist empowerment will facilitate the next almost like a domino effect:

Assumption #1 If Iran attains nuclear weapons capability will the US not dare to engage in armed conflict with Iran.

Assumption #2 Iran conquering the Gulf states will overnight turn Iran into a superpower due to the immense oil wealth in those nations and if Iran already has nuclear weapons will the US not dare to do anything about the Iranian conquest.

Assumption #3 Once Tehran has become a military and economic superpower, Iran will have the military and economic muscles for taking over the rest of Islamdom.

Assumption #4 Control over Islamdom will grant the Iranian superpower global hegemony.

Assumption #5 Global hegemony is a springboard for Khomeinist theocratic world rule.

In order to thwart Iran’s ambitious hegemonic plans, it is essential for America and Israel to jointly destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons program. America will prior to such an operation need to station one million US troops in GCC nations in order to stop Iran’s apocalyptic Plan B of conquering Israel and GCC nations and attacking the West, Israel and GCC nations with weapons of mass destruction in terrorist attacks against major cities, all designed to prompt the reappearance of the Hidden Imam in Mecca which the Iranians believe needs to be under Iranian control when that occurs. Considering the central place and eschatological and geostrategic importance of Saudi Arabia in Iran’s neo-imperialist schemes, the United States needs to take a far greater role in Gulf security. Even if both Plan A and Plan B were thwarted will Iran not give up its imperialist-eschatological ambitions and taking over Saudi Arabia is a key step in that process of Khomeinist global cleansing.

While it is understandable considering President Biden’s commendable commitment to phasing out fossil fuels that his administration would attach less importance to Saudi Arabia, this in fact a mistake. The sale of new gasoline cars is not about to be outlawed anytime soon, which is something far away in the future, possibly as early as in the mid 2030s. Iran however is strongly incentivized to conquer Saudi Arabia long before that in accordance with Assumption #2. We should strongly assume that should both Plan A and Plan B be successfully thwarted, does Iran have a ready Plan C. What could that involve? Undoubtedly a seemingly unprovoked Iranian war to conquer the GCC nations and Israel. Of course, the mullahs would have to find a theological justification for this considering that Twelver jurisprudence prohibits offensive war but theology is malleable and can be adjusted to practical needs and circumstances. E.g. such an invasion could be in support of an IRGC-organized Shia uprising in Saudi Arabia.

Given the central importance of the KSA in Iranian strategic plans does the US need to commit itself to defend Saudi Arabia. However, the US should make demands from Saudi Arabia as well. Not only must the KSA fully normalize relations with Israel but it must also build a far larger military. In fact the KSA needs an army with 1 million soldiers in order to be able to effectively defend itself against the Iranian threat, as the current 250 000 is wholly insufficient. The US must demand that the nations of the region develop the ability to collectively defend themselves as part of the emerging security architecture that Israel is erecting in the region.

If Iran were to conquer the GCC states then Tehran would be the one to control the global price of oil and would no doubt implement oil embargoes against US allies to make them toe the Iranian line, thus breaking up US global hegemony. The US should make it a strategic priority to prevent Iranian control over GCC states and Washington therefore needs to commit to defend Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Gulf states against the Khomeinist menace.

Israel’s Indigenous Restoration Project is Rational

The Palestinian problem will be resolved when at least 10 million Median Jews have immigrated to Israel and the Jewish state redeems and enfranchises the entire Judea and Samaria with Jordan subsequently annexing Gaza and any plans for partition are thus redundant. It is nevertheless interesting to know the outline of how Israel kept the option of partition open whether for a Palestinian state or for Jordanian annexation. There would be five Palestinian regions, three in Judea and Samaria; namely Hebron, Ramallah and Samaria and two in present Israel; namely the Northern Negev and the Central Galilee. The five Palestinian regions would all be contiguous internally and with each other whether they would be part of Jordan or constitute a separate Palestinian state. Jewish communities both in Israel and Judea and Samaria were planned and located specifically to facilitate partition and defensible borders. Of course this is very different from the internationally popular notion of anachronistically returning to something close to the 1949 Jordanian-Israeli armistice lines. All Jewish, Samaritan, Druze and it was later decided Christian communities would be part of Israel whether in Israel or Judea and Samaria. Israeli military intelligence sent out agents to found indigenous communities in Judea and Samaria in a manner which seemed spontaneous but which was actually premeditated and carefully calibrated since all strategic indigenous communities were established on public lands and in strategic locations in a manner so as to facilitate partition and certainly not so as to prevent it. Nevertheless these reserve plans for partition of the land of Israel are now completely and utterly redundant since Israel will be able to keep the land united thanks to major Median Jewish Aliyah.

The West Needs to Shift Paradigm on Ukraine Military Funding

The outcome of the current level of Western militarily deliveries to Kyiv is to effectively keep democratic Ukraine on life support and produce a deadlock between Russia and Ukraine. The Armed Forces of Ukraine (ZSU) are highly capable, professional, motivated and able to defeat Russia and kick out every last occupying Russian soldier from sovereign Ukrainian soil. However, attaining this and hence conclusively preventing war between Russia and NATO in scuttling Russia’s ambitions to become a superpower by conquering Europe in order to defend Siberia from China is contingent on Western weapons deliveries which are currently completely insufficient. At present, the ZSU is losing about 100 soldiers a day due to not having been provided with nearly sufficient heavy weaponry. This is tragic and absolutely heartbreaking. EU nations must internalize that they will be next if Russia conquers Ukraine and the US must face the reality that young Americans will then once more die in large numbers in the trenches of Europe. It is a vital national security interest of all NATO nations that Russia is strategically defeated in Ukraine and so NATO nations must be ready to invest vast sums in the weapons deliveries required for defeating Russia and liberating all occupied Ukrainian sovereign territory and hence restore peace in Europe and prevent further war on the subcontinent. NATO nations would be particularly well-advised to change course and fully embrace the cause of the valiant, bleeding democratic nation of Ukraine.