The Khomeinist regime frequently threatens to demolish Tel Aviv and they should be taken on their word. Their strategic tool for doing so is Hezbollah’s planned massive missile barrage following the Israeli strategic degradation of the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Hezbollah has a stockpile of 150 000 missiles and hence has the capacity to cause very significant damage to Tel Aviv and to other Israeli cities. Tel Aviv is especially vulnerable due to its many skyscrapers.
The degree of the damage wreaked on Metropolitan Tel Aviv (Hebrew: Gush Dan) and other Israeli urban areas will depend on 1) the efficacy of the multilayered Israeli missile defense systems, 2) the number of Hezbollah missiles fired per minute, per hour and per day and 3) the pace of Israel’s and the SDF’s invasion of Lebanon and Ba’ath-controlled Syria.
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have proven a formidable and highly motivated fighting force with American air support against ISIL and will turn out to be so again with Israeli air support against the SAA (Syrian Arab Army) as well. The Sunni Jihadist factor in Syria has almost been eliminated by the SDF and SAA and the latter will now face defeat and disintegration as well. This is crucial as as the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) does not face Jihadist adversaries in the northern theater except Twelver Shia Islamist Hezbollah.
The success in saving the Israeli homefront from civilian damage/carnage will thus largely depend upon the rapidity of the IDF/SDF Blitzkrieg in the northern theater of operations. It is clear that Iran through Hezbollah will be able to inflict significant damage on the Israeli homefront, including against the city of Tel Aviv. As Iran approaches nuclear threshold status is war certainly approaching. Israel is determined to survive and prevent the Khomeinist regime from developing nuclear weapons and Tehran is equally determined to respond by endeavoring to inflict significant damage to civilian targets in cities throughout Israel and in particular in Tel Aviv and its environs.
The IRGC-commanded Hezbollah is very highly unlikely to heed any international calls for ceasefire as Iran has no incentive to stop Hezbollah from shooting missiles against Israeli cities which will be done with the goal of causing maximum damage and maximum carnage with the purpose in mind of strategically deterring Israel from ever again contemplating strategically degrading the Iranian nuclear weapons program. The IDF would be particularly ill-advised to heed any international calls for ceasefire since any halt in the invasion would provide Hezbollah with more time and opportunity to cause massive damage and massive carnage in cities throughout Israel with intense missile barrage day and night. Furthermore, Israel would be extremely strategically ill-advised to cease the war prematurely and thus doom itself to yet another round of war with Hezbollah the next time Israel strategically degrades Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Israel must defend its homefront and bring comprehensive victory in the northern theater as well as crucially and strategically bring perpetual peace of new lasting treaty boundaries between Jerusalem, Damascus and Beirut.