The pace of the Israeli invasion of Lebanon and Syria will crucially determine for how long the Hezbollah missile barrage against Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities will last. The Hezbollah missile barrage will strategically end when the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reaches the northern end of Lebanon’s predominantly Twelver Shia Beqaa valley.
Israel will need to occupy the entire Grand Liban for several months while rooting out Hezbollah’s 150 000 strong stockpile of missiles as dispersed in tunnels throughout the country. In the meantime will the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) advance from northeast Syria, first across the Euphrates and then towards Aleppo, Hama, Homs and Damascus. This SDF strategic advance with vast Israeli air support will take several months, the exact same period during which Israel roots out the Hezbollah missile stockpile in Grand Liban. By the time the SDF has liberated Damascus will the SDF be ready to take over much of Grand Liban as then vacated by the IDF. The Median Jewish (Alawite and Druze) areas of Syria will be liberated by the IDF once Israel has terminated the Hezbollah missile barrage.
Is this war too risky for Israel? The risks of inaction or stupidly waging a Gaza-style silly aerial “war of deterrence” are certainly far greater as the missile threat will grow graver and graver until the point where the price for degrading Iran’s nuclear weapons program becomes too steep in Israeli civilian lives and damage to Israeli urban civilian structures. This is a slippery slope with the Khomeinist regime eventually turning out the strategic winner. Israel has a strategic window of opportunity to wage war for the strategic attainment of comprehensive peace and would be particularly well-advised to take this opportunity to once and for all eliminate both Jihadist Hezbollah and the totalitarian Ba’ath regime. Israeli redemption of the entire Judea and Samaria and Jordanian annexation of Gaza furthermore means that Iran will lose almost all means currently at its disposal for causing harm to Israel and the war in the northern theater will shrink the current extent of the Khomeinist empire by removing Syria and Lebanon from the sphere of current indirect Iranian control.