Misreading Iran

The P5+1 are still stuck in the paradigm of yesteryear on Iran in still insisting on Iran returning to the JCPOA. Iran does not believe it will benefit economically from complying with the JCPOA. Both Tehran and the international business world knows full well that the next Republican administran will cancel the JCPOA once more if Tehran decides now to return to compliance with the JCPOA and therefore will Iran not reap any economic benefits from returning to the JCPOA. There will be neither international investments nor international trade since it will all be stopped anyway by the next Republican administration when American sanctions are reimposed. 

The die is cast. The Iranian regime has made its strategic decision to instead accelerate its nuclear weapons program. There is nothing in the world that can incentivize the Iranian regime to change direction and return to compliance with the JCPOA. Tehran has made a strategic decision to ditch the JCPOA. Within the bounds of its irrational official apocalyptic ideology is Tehran a very highly rational strategic decision maker, indeed the leading strategist in the international community. To assume that Iran would now return to the JCPOA is a fundamental misreading of Iranian strategic decision-making processes which are wholly rational, again, within the confines of a fundamentally irrational, apocalyptic official ideology. The Iranian regime intends to use nuclear weapons to cause an apocalypse which they believe will lead to the dual return of the hidden imam (Mahdi) and Isa ibn Maryam (Jesus) leading to worldwide institution of Twelver Shia sharia law under the global theocratic rule of Tehran.  

Tehran believed in 2015 that they would benefit through trade and investments from the JCPOA. Tehran no longer believes so. There has been a strategic shift and Iran sees no reason anymore to put any delays on its nuclear weapons program. The JCPOA did not cancel the Iranian nuclear weapons program, only delayed it until 2030 and thus was the JCPOA not in conflict with Iran’s overall apocalyptic nuclear aims. From the perspective of the Iranian regime is there no reason to delay the defeat of the forces of evil and the expected redemption of all of surviving humanity following the calamitous nuclear apocalypse. 

Why are the P5+1 misreading Iran? They are all secular non-Muslim powers with leaderships not schooled in Islamic civilization. Ultimately however is this an intelligence failure only comparable to that preceding the 1938 Munich agreement with Nazi Germany. This time however, will there be no agreement with a totalitarian power as the totalitarian power in question does not permit itself to be appeased.

Published by Daniella Bartfeld

Daniella Bartfeld is the founding director of the Aliyah Organization

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