The Peripheral Concentric Approach

The approach of the Mossad which regularly tries to spur unrest in Iran and which the Mossad hopes will lead to an Iranian secularist revolution has for many years been focused on Persian-speaking major cities in Iran. Such unrest occurs every few years or so with so far no strategic breakthrough as the Khomeinist regime still remains in power. The reason for this so far failed Israeli policy is the probably correct assumption that demonstrations in ethnic minority regions are unlikely to lead to a revolution in Tehran. 

However, there is great potential in the periphery for anti-regime armed revolts against the center and such armed revolts could in turn propel a revolution in the major Persian-speaking cities as well. In fact, the potential for armed revolts is much greater in the periphery than in the center of the country. 

The key to encouraging armed revolts in the periphery and subsequently a revolution in the center is a no-fly zone over Iranian air space. Even tearing minority regions apart from Iran and creating self-governing minority regions would be a success in and of itself on the road to implode the Khomeinist empire and would effectively partially dissolve it. This would weaken the regime and reduce its empire in the region. Only some 45% of Iranians are ethnic Persians and removing the minority regions from Iranian control would effectively degrade Iran from its current great power status in the Middle East. 

Israel and its allies should encourage revolts in the periphery with a two-pronged approach. 1) Plan A: Encourage armed revolts in the periphery with the intent of spurring a non-violent revolution in the Persian-speaking center of the country. 2) Plan B: Encourage armed revolts with the goal of setting up self-governing regional governments and contain Persian-speaking Iran until there can be a non-violent revolution there or armed revolt as well. Either way would a no-fly zone be a strategic success. While Plan A would bring down the Iranian regime, would Plan B significantly cut the Khomeinist regime down to size.

The minorities have double grievances. Like the ethnic Persians are they severely oppressed by the theocratic totalitarian regime but they are also oppressed as members of ethnic minorities (or rather regional majorities) and their children are forced to study in Persian only in school. The Persianization policy is deeply unpopular among the country’s non-Persian regional majorities.

What is required for all this to happen is the formation of an overt defense alliance of the countries in the wider region against Iran and whose core members would be Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Of course, for this to take place would Saudi Arabia need to normalize relations with Israel, something that in any case is very highly likely to happen when MBS becomes king, so logically speaking why wait? The other way would be if the US on its own were to impose a no-fly zone over Iran but this seems unlikely under the current non-interventionist US administration.

Under Plan A would Iran be transformed into a confederation of European-style language-based states and under Plan B would there be multiple regional governments KRG-style that would be de facto independent from Tehran. There would notably be two Kurdish self-governing regions (one in Kurdistan and one in Khorasan) and two Arab self-governing regions (one in Khuzestan and one west of the Strait of Hormuz).

The Iranian regime intends to commit genocide and is a threat to the entire region as well as to the outside world. Just as it was the right thing to dismantle the totalitarian Soviet empire, so is it the very right thing to dismantle the totalitarian Khomeinist empire as well. This is truly an empire of evil. 

Published by Daniella Bartfeld

Daniella Bartfeld is the founding director of the Aliyah Organization

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