The SAA Stands No Chance

Israel has no choice but together with the allied Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) crush Hezbollah and its sponsors in Syria and Lebanon after Hezbollah launches its massive missile barrages against Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities in response to the Israeli destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program. This is a war of no choice or otherwise will Hezbollah’s missile program grow into an existential threat against the city of Tel Aviv, Israel’s economic capital. There will be new borders, a Christian Aramean successor state to Lebanon, Israel would annex Median Jewish (Druze and Alawite) regions of Syria and Lebanon while the new Syria would annex the remainder of Lebanon.

The bottom line is that the SAA (Syrian Arab Army) stands no chance against the combined forces of the high tech IDF (Israel Defense Forces) and the exceptionally motivated SDF of the AANES (Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria). And Bashar al-Assad knows this perfectly well. So why does he not make a partition agreement with Israel for the peaceful partition of Syria? Of course this is highly unlikely to happen and entirely for reasons of Middle Eastern political culture. Yet there should certainly be sustained and intensive international diplomatic efforts as well as diplomatic outreach personally to President Bashar al-Assad to persuade him of the of the significant economic, cultural and political merits of the Alawite and Druze regions of Syria becoming part of Israel and himself becoming an Israeli citizen and potentially an elected Israeli politician.

There are however no prospects whatsoever for a peaceful resolution for Lebanon due to the nefarious presence of Hezbollah. Syria is a different matter though which has a Jewish government although officially Anti-Semitic. There is a remote possibility for a peaceful settlement in Syria and a peaceful partition between Israel and AANES while containing the war to Lebanon. This would be a major diplomatic achievement indeed. It would be deeply tragic if a diplomatic agreement could not be found for a peaceful partition of Syria, however remote such a possibility may seem. The international community of nations should mobilize diplomatically to engage with Damascus to agree to peaceful partition as an alternative to total defeat which would otherwise be the only other outcome.

Published by Daniella Bartfeld

Daniella Bartfeld is the founding director of the Aliyah Organization.

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