There is a common misconception that Israel’s alliance with the US is based upon Jewish political influence in United States domestic politics. While it is true that organized American Jewry for half a century has played a critical role in articulating American interests in the Middle East, nothing could be further from the truth. Organized American Jewry has never had anywhere near the political clout to impose policy that goes against American interests. Its influence lies solely in its power to articulate the American interest as any patriotic Americans.
America’s alliance with Israel is based on strong common interests but also on solidarity between democracies. While China would be very pleased if Israel were to realign from the US to China, this will not happen except in the unlikely event that an Anti-Zionist or an Anti-Semitic US president were to be elected who is determined to destroy or at least to abandon Israel. Israel’s alliance with America is ironclad, this however is not to say that Israel lacks an alternative since China is very eager to align with Israel in the stead of the US.
Even if a president who is very critical of Israel were to be elected, his/her/their intelligence chiefs would surely advise him of the very negative consequences for US national security were he/she/they to disrupt the US-Israel special relationship as the US is very dependent upon Israel’s intelligence and technological capabilities. In fact, it would be something of a strategic disaster for the US if Israel were to realign with China.
In sum, the US-Israel special relationship will survive despite the advanced assimilation of the younger generation of American Jewry. Most of American Jewry is about to exit history in the coming decades and it is true that Muslim Americans and Arab Americans will become electorally more important than American Jews for the Democratic party, yet the US-Israel special relationship will remain enduring because it is not primarily based upon electoral considerations but rather on shared interests and common values between two great nations and so it shall remain.