What is Wrong with the Iran Experts?

For over a year Iran experts and intelligence analysts around the world predicted that Iran would return to the JCPOA. Only now are Israeli officials coming to the realization that there won’t be an agreement. Even so they claim that chances of an agreement are “slim to none”. This reveals a complete misreading of theContinue reading “What is Wrong with the Iran Experts?”

Does Russia Fear WWIII?

How does Russia relate to the potential of World War III in Europe? On the one hand has Russia actively for a long time been planning to conquer the entire Europe and this of course is why a country such as Portugal is a member of NATO. Russia plans to become a superpower once moreContinue reading “Does Russia Fear WWIII?”

Russia Must be Defeated at all Cost

British prime minister Boris Johnson remarked the other day that there was a “realistic possibility” that Russia would win the war against Ukraine. We must make sure that this does not happen under any circumstances and the effective policy of underarming Ukraine must cease. President Zelensky should not have to complain about having insufficient weaponryContinue reading “Russia Must be Defeated at all Cost”

The Case for a Tripartite Democratic World Order

The rise of the three neo-imperialist powers of China, Iran and Russia and the inevitability that China will eventually grow more powerful than America due to China’s greater demographic size once Beijing begins to economically catch up with Washington requires a new world order. Rather than one democratic superpower should we envision a world orderContinue reading “The Case for a Tripartite Democratic World Order”

The West Should Deter Russia and Not Vice Versa

Russia has finally launched its Donbas offensive with much of the Russian army in place in eastern Ukraine. The United States and its NATO allies have had ample time to fully arm Ukraine since the February 24 invasion but have not done even remotely enough for fear of angering Moscow. Russia has been quite successfulContinue reading “The West Should Deter Russia and Not Vice Versa”

Russia Will not Use WMD in Ukraine

There have been warnings that Russia could use weapons of mass destruction in Ukraine. However, a simple cost-benefit analysis reveals that Russia has nothing to gain from using WMD in Ukraine. There would be no “Japanese effect” as the Ukrainians would not capitulate, rather would this if anything have the opposite effect in further galvanizingContinue reading “Russia Will not Use WMD in Ukraine”

Washington Needs to Mend Ties with Riyadh

In his last and successful presidential campaign candidate Biden promised to treat Saudi Arabia like a “pariah”. It is unclear whether there was a geopolitical calculus of unrealistically realigning with Iran or if there was simply no geopolitical calculus at all behind the “pariah” statement. The latter seems likely since Saudi Arabia has certainly notContinue reading “Washington Needs to Mend Ties with Riyadh”

Why the Russians are Lying on Ukraine

Moscow is infamous for its worldwide disinformation campaigns. Not only was it Czarist Russian intelligence which devised the infamous forgery of “The Protocols of the Elders of Zion” and Soviet intelligence (or even Josef Stalin himself) which coined the neologism “dezinformatsiya”. The KGB through Operation SIG is also also the origin of most contemporary Anti-Semitism,Continue reading “Why the Russians are Lying on Ukraine”

How the West Misunderstands Russia and Iran

Western specialists tend to underemphasize the importance of state ideology in the foreign policy of Iran. In contrast, Western specialists tend to overemphasize the importance of state ideology in the foreign policy of Russia. There is the tendency to label the Russian leadership as irrational and dangerous while the Iranian leadership is not similarly labeledContinue reading “How the West Misunderstands Russia and Iran”

Khomeinism and Iranian Foreign Policy

Ayatollah Khomeini introduced a governing principle according to which Iranian national interests take precedence over sharia. This may seem surprising for an Islamist theocratic regime but can be observed in Iranian foreign policy for various parts of the world. Iran is completely silent on China’s Han colonization of Xinjiang and totalitarian policies of coerced assimilationContinue reading “Khomeinism and Iranian Foreign Policy”

There is no Alternative to Total Victory

Although there are ongoing so-called “negotiations” between Ukraine and Russia while Russia is pulverizing Ukrainian cities, it is clear that there is no alternative to the total liberation of Ukraine. Furthermore, there is in practice no alternative to full Ukrainian membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union. The ephemeral talk ofContinue reading “There is no Alternative to Total Victory”

Building the Regional Security Architecture Cannot Wait

The triangular relationship between the State of Israel, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United States of America is essential for the emerging regional security architecture in the Middle East and Islamdom at large. Much is at stake, will Iran come to dominate the Middle East and Islamdom or will it not? All thisContinue reading “Building the Regional Security Architecture Cannot Wait”

The US Needs to Provide Incentives to Saudi Arabia

In 2021 Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman al-Saud made a generous offer to US National Security Advisory Jake Sullivan. MBS offered to normalize relations with Israel in return for a list of demands for so-called “incentives” (i.e. security guarantees and weapons sales). The Americans not only inexplicably turned down the generous offer but apparently rudelyContinue reading “The US Needs to Provide Incentives to Saudi Arabia”

Saudi Arabia is Indispensable to the New Regional Security Architecture

Iran is engaged in a concerted military expansion of its military assets in the Middle East, including missiles and drones. The State of Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia are the two most important pillars in the emerging new regional security architecture in the Middle East in particular and in Islamdom at large. Yet,Continue reading “Saudi Arabia is Indispensable to the New Regional Security Architecture”

The Foot-Dragging Must End

Unfortunately, the West does not want Ukraine to fully defeat Russia. Before the invasion was the universal assumption in the West that Ukraine was doomed and would only be able to survive through guerilla warfare. The heroic ZSU (Armed Forces of Ukraine) stunned an entire world in being able to hold back against the RussianContinue reading “The Foot-Dragging Must End”

Who is Right on Iran?

What are Iran’s intentions in Vienna? Non-Iranian intelligence agencies do not appear to know. Many weeks ago there was a flood of Israeli predictions of an imminent deal in Vienna but those fears have certainly not materialized and now even the Americans appear skeptical at the feasibility of a return to the JCPOA. I haveContinue reading “Who is Right on Iran?”

Why Russia does not Want to Change Course

Two decades ago, Vladimir Putin asked the West to allow Russia to become a member of NATO. This informal request was promptly rebuffed. What view does Russia take of the option of a US-led Asian defense alliance encircling China? For Russia this is primarily a question of lack of trust or to put it differently,Continue reading “Why Russia does not Want to Change Course”

How Important is Russian Imperialism?

Russia remains stuck in the Ukrainian quagmire and now the Ukrainians are going on the offensive to retake Russian-occupied territories. Moscow however remains defiant in refusing to acknowledge defeat. It is abundantly clear that Russia’s astounding military failure is as much because of the incompetence, corruption and low morale of the Russian occupation forces asContinue reading “How Important is Russian Imperialism?”

The West Should Hasten Ukraine’s Victory

The ZSU (Armed Forces of Ukraine) have exposed the Russian military as incompetent, corrupt and unmotivated. It is important to further demoralize the Russian side by hastening its defeat in Ukraine. While it is true that Russia has incrementally made tactical territorial gains, primarily in southern Ukraine, the ZSU has been winning strategically all alongContinue reading “The West Should Hasten Ukraine’s Victory”

China’s Planned Conquests

China is not only expansionist in an economic sense. Densely populated China is bordered by thinly populated vast territories rich in natural resources to its west and north which are completely irresistible to Han China. China is a highly sophisticated state which has learned the lesson of historical empires and Beijing knows the dangers ofContinue reading “China’s Planned Conquests”

The Absence of US-Russian Diplomacy is Extremely Dangerous

The absence of diplomatic dialogue between the United States of America and the Russian Federation at a time when Europe is seriously threatened by WWIII and Russia plans to use tactical nuclear weapons to kick out the Americans from Europe in order to conquer Europe is profoundly dangerous. For President Biden to ratchet up theContinue reading “The Absence of US-Russian Diplomacy is Extremely Dangerous”

Is Russia Acting Rationally or Irrationally?

The prevailing consensus among Russia experts and apparently among scientists in the Western intelligence community is that President Vladimir Putin has become irrational. There are various explanations that are put forward such as autism, megalomania, personality disorders (psychopathy or narcissism), two years of Covid isolation and the alleged and/or actual influence of various historical andContinue reading “Is Russia Acting Rationally or Irrationally?”

First Things First

American diplomacy and American leadership is imperative in ending the war in Ukraine which undoubtedly is intended by Russia to constitute the very beginning of WWIII. Relations between Moscow and Washington are at their lowest point in decades but it is nevertheless essential for the United States to reach out diplomatically to the Russian Federation.Continue reading “First Things First”

A Unique Diplomatic Opportunity for Peace

Beijing’s nightmare is an Asian defense alliance encircling China from all directions and since China is surrounded by rivals, does Beijing make sure to keep close to Russia. Both Beijing and Moscow are keenly aware that a major confrontation between China and Russia over the ownership of Siberia looms on the horizon. Yet, both nationsContinue reading “A Unique Diplomatic Opportunity for Peace”

Zelensky’s Israel Campaign

Ukraine has waged a well-oiled international campaign to gain international support against the illegal Russian invasion. However, the Zelensky administration has specifically targeted Israel, in many times complaining about Israel maintaining its good relations with Russia. Why is the Zelensky administration putting so much effort into courting Israel which is merely a small country inContinue reading “Zelensky’s Israel Campaign”

Will the Russians Sober Up?

The emerging reality in Ukraine is becoming increasingly clear. Russia is winning tactically in some locations in Ukraine but is overall suffering strategic defeat. The Ukrainian military is not only highly motivated but has turned out extremely competent and skilled. The Russian conscripts in contrast lack motivation for a war that they neither support norContinue reading “Will the Russians Sober Up?”

The US Cannot Guarantee that an Anti-Semite Won’t be Elected President

The US is pressuring Israel to join the ill-advised sanctions regime against Russia which does not help Ukraine one iota and makes a diplomatic resolution more difficult. Israel is not a banana republic and has its own independent national interests. If this was an interest of secondary or tertiary importance then Israel would surely relentContinue reading “The US Cannot Guarantee that an Anti-Semite Won’t be Elected President”

Why was the Palestinian Authority Established?

Neither Israel nor the PLO signed the Oslo Accords in good faith. The PLO was founded to destroy Israel and has never abandoned its Anti-Zionist zeal to destroy the Jewish state. Israel of course was keenly aware of this fact but sought to unburden itself of military administration of millions of Palestinians. Palestinian autonomy wasContinue reading “Why was the Palestinian Authority Established?”

Sanctions Against Russia are Counterproductive

The recently imposed sanctions regime against Russia is much ill-advised since it stands no chance of influencing the course of war and will only much complicate diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict.  Two decades ago, Vladimir Putin approached the West and asked for Russia to join NATO. This was rebuffed for obvious reasons since NATOContinue reading “Sanctions Against Russia are Counterproductive”

Open Letter to President Vladimir Putin

Dear President Putin, The military goals that you set out Mr. President, for your campaign, have not been met. The reality is that your forces have been defeated by the Ukrainians and the Russian military has suffered heavy losses. Russian conscripts lack motivation for this war and your military machine is ineffective. This is theContinue reading “Open Letter to President Vladimir Putin”

Israel Too Wants to Survive

Last year an Anti-Semite was elected president of Chile. The same thing could happen in the United States. Gone are the days when it was assured that it would always be a moderate who would be elected president of the United States. Support for Israel is declining dangerously among young Americans, including among young RepublicansContinue reading “Israel Too Wants to Survive”

MiGs Should be Delivered Discreetly

The question of how to deliver NATO MiGs to Ukraine has been dealt with insensitively. Like over weapons deliveries, the MiGs should be provided discreetly such as being dismantled into pieces and delivered by truck to Ukraine. There is no reason why this should be done with official fanfare. The Ukrainians are not served byContinue reading “MiGs Should be Delivered Discreetly”

It’s not About Ukraine – It’s About Europe

Russian propaganda has been successful in spreading the misconception that the current conflict is about Ukraine. Baltic governments have been consistently warning that the invasion of Ukraine is merely the opening salvo of WWIII. This is a classical war of imperial conquest. Russian propaganda claims that Europe is interested in conquering Russian wealth but thisContinue reading “It’s not About Ukraine – It’s About Europe”

What is the US Stratagem on Islamdom?

The Biden administration is convinced that it will succeed in concluding a nuclear agreement with Iran (I am skeptical, I don’t think the Iranians are interested other than playing for time) but what are the plans of the Biden administration for the period after a conclusion of an agreement? America’s allies in Islamdom worry thatContinue reading “What is the US Stratagem on Islamdom?”

Inside the Mind of Vladimir Putin

There has been a wide range of attempts to pathologize Russian president Vladimir Putin to explain the Ukraine war. It is surprising that otherwise rational and highly educated observers assume that the Russian system suddenly operates without an elaborate strategy. Putin’s Russia has always been similar in its geostrategic behavior to the former Soviet Union,Continue reading “Inside the Mind of Vladimir Putin”

Normalization in Limbo

In the waning days of the Trump presidency was the world presented with a long list of Muslim countries waiting to normalize relations with Israel. However, once Trump had exited the White House, the process came to an abrupt end and no more Muslim countries have so far normalized relations with Israel during the BidenContinue reading “Normalization in Limbo”

Is MBS the Ataturk of Arabia?

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud (MBS) did not initiate the process of liberalization and secularization in Saudi Arabia but he has certainly spearheaded it. MBS has proceeded methodically in promoting a feminist agenda of enfranchising women in Saudi Arabia. He has been much maligned and has been accused of being a psychopath and abusingContinue reading “Is MBS the Ataturk of Arabia?”

The Russian Military Incompetence

All militaries are incompetent to varying degrees due to regular militaries being huge apparatuses based on planned centralized command economy. This of course is breeding ground for incompetence and bureaucratic failure. Asymmetric warfare is precisely so effective because it is non-bureaucratic with a decentralized command structure. The IDF (Israel Defense Forces) is unique in theContinue reading “The Russian Military Incompetence”

The World from the Perspective of Beijing

Beijing is in the phase of building itself up as a superpower economically, politically, militarily and technologically. How does Beijing relate to Washington? China is not really hostile towards America but is determined to overtake the United States as the only superpower. China has not yet reached the phase of territorial expansion and has noContinue reading “The World from the Perspective of Beijing”

Feeding the Russian Crocodile

There is a significant likelihood and risk indeed that not militarily defending democratic Ukraine will incentivize Putin’s Russia into military aggression against NATO nations. Admitting Ukraine into NATO would have averted the Russian invasion and now it is too late, a democracy of 41 million citizens is about to fall to imperialist aggression. Putin’s impressionContinue reading “Feeding the Russian Crocodile”

It’s not About the Money

Israeli officials are somewhat hysterical in anticipation of a nuclear agreement materializing in Vienna. This of course is profoundly understandable since the JCPOA and an even worse hypothetical follow-up agreement are disastrous for Israeli security and are completely worthless as an insurance for Israeli survival. The question is however whether there will be an agreementContinue reading “It’s not About the Money”

A Grand Bargain for Peace

Contrary to what Moscow claims, Russia’s military buildup against Ukraine has nothing to do with a perceived threat from NATO and in contrast has everything to do with China. This obviously requires some explanation. Russia is infamous for its propaganda and disinformation and has long disingenuously claimed that NATO (a purely defensive organization) has offensiveContinue reading “A Grand Bargain for Peace”

The Death of the Liberal World Order

The US project of imposing a liberal world order has a long pedigree going back to US president Woodrow Wilson a century ago. The pro-democracy efforts by US President George W. Bush resulted in the Arab spring years later but failed to establish liberal democracy other than in Tunisia where it did not last. WithContinue reading “The Death of the Liberal World Order”

Iran does not Want to Defer the Apocalypse

Due to crushing UN economic sanctions did Iran agree to the JCPOA in 2015. Iran’s economic situation was such that Iran’s leaders agreed to defer the timeline of the Khomeinist apocalypse. Today in contrast there is no such incentive as Iran is able to export oil to China, and Tehran rightly sees no economic benefitContinue reading “Iran does not Want to Defer the Apocalypse”

Regionwide War and Global Terror

Iran does not fear America which it considers bruised by war and defeated by international Jihadism. In the Khomeinist Weltanschauung is Israel merely one of the tentacles of the “worldwide” American-Jewish “octopus” and so Tehran believes that Jerusalem cannot independently decide on destroying Iran’s nuclear weapons program without a green light from Washington. Therefore willContinue reading “Regionwide War and Global Terror”

China or Russia cannot Substitute America’s Role in Islamdom

Why did the Biden administration discontinue the Trump administration policy of intending to devolve most of America’s superpower duties in Islamdom to Israel? There is only one answer: Suspicion that Israel will realign with China. The US nightmare scenario is that Washington would hand over most of its superpower duties in Islamdom to Jerusalem andContinue reading “China or Russia cannot Substitute America’s Role in Islamdom”

Muslim Nations are Hedging Their Bets

The Trump administration was exceptionally successful in generating normalization between Israel and Muslim nations due to the Trump policy of intending to devolve much of America’s superpower duties in Islamdom to Israel. This idea is immensely popular among governments of Islamdom for two reasons. 1) The Mossad is extremely trusted as a partner in theContinue reading “Muslim Nations are Hedging Their Bets”

Conflict with Iran is Inevitable

There is no chance of reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran for the simple reason that Tehran is not interested in temporary sanctions relief as the next Republican administration would promptly reimpose sanctions. However, even if hypothetically a nuclear agreement was reached between Tehran and Washington, this would only defer the conflict. Iran is hell-bentContinue reading “Conflict with Iran is Inevitable”

Imperialist Plans of Expansionism

Iran, China and Russia are all neo-imperialist powers and they intend to geographically expand in accordance with their respective geostrategic master plans. America in contrast which is no empire and has no imperialist designs has no master plan across presidencies for its foreign policy since every new president in the 21st century has devised hisContinue reading “Imperialist Plans of Expansionism”

How to Make the US-Israel Relationship Last Forever

How can the US-Israel relationship be so reinforced that it becomes unbreakable as both America and Israel fear being abandoned by the other in the long-term? There is a consensus among Middle Eastern governments that the United States intends to disengage from Islamdom and the US implausibly denies this despite the stated ambition to focusContinue reading “How to Make the US-Israel Relationship Last Forever”