Why Hezbollah Will Attack Israel

There are multiple reasons why Hezbollah and its allies in the Iranian axis in the Middle East will engage in a frontal assault on Israel after Israel and the US destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program once so-called “negotiations” have become completely exhausted. 1. The Iranian regime systematically states that this will happen if theContinue reading “Why Hezbollah Will Attack Israel”

How Jerusalem Could be Key to NATO’s Enlargement

There are three centers of political power in the Republic of Turkey. These are a) the ruling AK party headed by president Erdogan, b) the Sabbatean-controlled Derin Devlet deep state domestic intelligence apparatus and c) the Turkish military, the TAF (Turkish Armed Forces) itself. While the Derin Devlet is primarily concerned with preserving the secularistContinue reading “How Jerusalem Could be Key to NATO’s Enlargement”

America, Israel and Iran – A Reality Check

The reality that most do not want to acknowledge is that the Khomeinist leadership in Iran for their own reasons simply do not want to return to the JCPOA and they are not interested in any alternative agreement either. Any viable agreement would have to have bipartisan support and be acceptable to Israel and itsContinue reading “America, Israel and Iran – A Reality Check”

Russia’s Successful Nuclear Deterrence

Under what conditions would Russia be willing to use tactical nuclear weapons? It is important to understand that nuclear weapons are mainly psychological weapons. They are meant for psychological deterrence, mainly not to be used, as using strategic nuclear weapons is out of question in Europe. This surely opens the question under what circumstances andContinue reading “Russia’s Successful Nuclear Deterrence”

The Approaching Khomeinist Apocalypse

“I am decisely announcing to the whole world that if the world-devourers [the infidel powers] wish to stand against our religion, we will stand against the whole world and will not cease until the annihilation of all of them. Either we all become free, or we will go to the greater freedom, which is martyrdom.Continue reading “The Approaching Khomeinist Apocalypse”

A Leopard doesn’t Change its Spots

The new decree by the Taliban regime i Kabul that women must once more wear the burqa was expected and illustrates the profoundly reactionary nature of Islamist movements generally and the futility in hoping for so-called “moderates”, “reformists” etc. among Islamists although they can surely be politically pragmatic and engage in political lying. There areContinue reading “A Leopard doesn’t Change its Spots”

The United States Needs Saudi Arabia

The early assessment by the Biden administration that a return to the JCPOA could be taken for granted and that the US did not really need Saudi Arabia as an ally has been disproven by subsequent events. Iran is more aggressive than ever and Ali Khamenei is apparently grooming the arch-extremist president Ebrahim Raisi asContinue reading “The United States Needs Saudi Arabia”

The Danger of Preemptive Apocalypse

Tehran is currently moderately convinced that America and Israel will not dare to destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program. This is one of the reasons for its rejectionism in Vienna. Nevertheless, on Quds Day, Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah threatened that Iran might attack Israel directly if Israeli sabotage operations against the Iranian nuclear weapons programContinue reading “The Danger of Preemptive Apocalypse”

What is Wrong with the Iran Experts?

For over a year Iran experts and intelligence analysts around the world predicted that Iran would return to the JCPOA. Only now are Israeli officials coming to the realization that there won’t be an agreement. Even so they claim that chances of an agreement are “slim to none”. This reveals a complete misreading of theContinue reading “What is Wrong with the Iran Experts?”

Inside the Khomeinist Mind

The Iranian regime openly states that its overarching geostrategic goal is to prompt the reappearance of the Hidden Imam. Yet academic experts and intelligence analysts do tend to not pay attention to the religious dimension of Iranian decision making. Khomeinism is unique in the sense as being the only form of Islamism that is apocalypticContinue reading “Inside the Khomeinist Mind”

Every Inch of Ukrainian Territory

The US government has since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine famously rhetorically committed to the defense of “every inch of NATO territory”. The US policy in defense of Ukraine has been more ambiguous and which aims at “slowing down the Russian advance”. However at one point the Ukrainians decided to go on theContinue reading “Every Inch of Ukrainian Territory”

The Case for a Tripartite Democratic World Order

The rise of the three neo-imperialist powers of China, Iran and Russia and the inevitability that China will eventually grow more powerful than America due to China’s greater demographic size once Beijing begins to economically catch up with Washington requires a new world order. Rather than one democratic superpower should we envision a world orderContinue reading “The Case for a Tripartite Democratic World Order”

The West Should Deter Russia and Not Vice Versa

Russia has finally launched its Donbas offensive with much of the Russian army in place in eastern Ukraine. The United States and its NATO allies have had ample time to fully arm Ukraine since the February 24 invasion but have not done even remotely enough for fear of angering Moscow. Russia has been quite successfulContinue reading “The West Should Deter Russia and Not Vice Versa”

Washington Needs to Mend Ties with Riyadh

In his last and successful presidential campaign candidate Biden promised to treat Saudi Arabia like a “pariah”. It is unclear whether there was a geopolitical calculus of unrealistically realigning with Iran or if there was simply no geopolitical calculus at all behind the “pariah” statement. The latter seems likely since Saudi Arabia has certainly notContinue reading “Washington Needs to Mend Ties with Riyadh”

Why the Russians are Lying on Ukraine

Moscow is infamous for its worldwide disinformation campaigns. Not only was it Czarist Russian intelligence which devised the infamous forgery of “The Protocols of the Elders of Zion” and Soviet intelligence (or even Josef Stalin himself) which coined the neologism “dezinformatsiya”. The KGB through Operation SIG is also also the origin of most contemporary Anti-Semitism,Continue reading “Why the Russians are Lying on Ukraine”

Biden Should put his Money Where his Mouth Is

US president Joe Biden has accused Russia of committing genocide in Ukraine with the caveat that legal experts will have to ultimately determine whether the situation actually legally constitutes genocide. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed Biden’s statement but pointed out that Ukraine urgently needs delivery of heavy weapons. One may surely wonder why NATO nationsContinue reading “Biden Should put his Money Where his Mouth Is”

How the West Misunderstands Russia and Iran

Western specialists tend to underemphasize the importance of state ideology in the foreign policy of Iran. In contrast, Western specialists tend to overemphasize the importance of state ideology in the foreign policy of Russia. There is the tendency to label the Russian leadership as irrational and dangerous while the Iranian leadership is not similarly labeledContinue reading “How the West Misunderstands Russia and Iran”

Khomeinism and Iranian Foreign Policy

Ayatollah Khomeini introduced a governing principle according to which Iranian national interests take precedence over sharia. This may seem surprising for an Islamist theocratic regime but can be observed in Iranian foreign policy for various parts of the world. Iran is completely silent on China’s Han colonization of Xinjiang and totalitarian policies of coerced assimilationContinue reading “Khomeinism and Iranian Foreign Policy”

Collective Conversions are Necessary

Israel’s diverse government has lost its majority in the Knesset with the defection of coalition whip Idit Silman, apparently over the issue of conversion reform. There can be little doubt that Member of Knesset Silman found herself under heavy rabbinical pressure and that she ultimately relented. There is also the issue that mainstream Modern OrthodoxyContinue reading “Collective Conversions are Necessary”

Building the Regional Security Architecture Cannot Wait

The triangular relationship between the State of Israel, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United States of America is essential for the emerging regional security architecture in the Middle East and Islamdom at large. Much is at stake, will Iran come to dominate the Middle East and Islamdom or will it not? All thisContinue reading “Building the Regional Security Architecture Cannot Wait”

The US Needs to Provide Incentives to Saudi Arabia

In 2021 Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman al-Saud made a generous offer to US National Security Advisory Jake Sullivan. MBS offered to normalize relations with Israel in return for a list of demands for so-called “incentives” (i.e. security guarantees and weapons sales). The Americans not only inexplicably turned down the generous offer but apparently rudelyContinue reading “The US Needs to Provide Incentives to Saudi Arabia”

Saudi Arabia is Indispensable to the New Regional Security Architecture

Iran is engaged in a concerted military expansion of its military assets in the Middle East, including missiles and drones. The State of Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia are the two most important pillars in the emerging new regional security architecture in the Middle East in particular and in Islamdom at large. Yet,Continue reading “Saudi Arabia is Indispensable to the New Regional Security Architecture”

Who is Right on Iran?

What are Iran’s intentions in Vienna? Non-Iranian intelligence agencies do not appear to know. Many weeks ago there was a flood of Israeli predictions of an imminent deal in Vienna but those fears have certainly not materialized and now even the Americans appear skeptical at the feasibility of a return to the JCPOA. I haveContinue reading “Who is Right on Iran?”

Why Russia does not Want to Change Course

Two decades ago, Vladimir Putin asked the West to allow Russia to become a member of NATO. This informal request was promptly rebuffed. What view does Russia take of the option of a US-led Asian defense alliance encircling China? For Russia this is primarily a question of lack of trust or to put it differently,Continue reading “Why Russia does not Want to Change Course”

How Important is Russian Imperialism?

Russia remains stuck in the Ukrainian quagmire and now the Ukrainians are going on the offensive to retake Russian-occupied territories. Moscow however remains defiant in refusing to acknowledge defeat. It is abundantly clear that Russia’s astounding military failure is as much because of the incompetence, corruption and low morale of the Russian occupation forces asContinue reading “How Important is Russian Imperialism?”

The West Should Hasten Ukraine’s Victory

The ZSU (Armed Forces of Ukraine) have exposed the Russian military as incompetent, corrupt and unmotivated. It is important to further demoralize the Russian side by hastening its defeat in Ukraine. While it is true that Russia has incrementally made tactical territorial gains, primarily in southern Ukraine, the ZSU has been winning strategically all alongContinue reading “The West Should Hasten Ukraine’s Victory”

China’s Planned Conquests

China is not only expansionist in an economic sense. Densely populated China is bordered by thinly populated vast territories rich in natural resources to its west and north which are completely irresistible to Han China. China is a highly sophisticated state which has learned the lesson of historical empires and Beijing knows the dangers ofContinue reading “China’s Planned Conquests”

The Absence of US-Russian Diplomacy is Extremely Dangerous

The absence of diplomatic dialogue between the United States of America and the Russian Federation at a time when Europe is seriously threatened by WWIII and Russia plans to use tactical nuclear weapons to kick out the Americans from Europe in order to conquer Europe is profoundly dangerous. For President Biden to ratchet up theContinue reading “The Absence of US-Russian Diplomacy is Extremely Dangerous”

Is Russia Acting Rationally or Irrationally?

The prevailing consensus among Russia experts and apparently among scientists in the Western intelligence community is that President Vladimir Putin has become irrational. There are various explanations that are put forward such as autism, megalomania, personality disorders (psychopathy or narcissism), two years of Covid isolation and the alleged and/or actual influence of various historical andContinue reading “Is Russia Acting Rationally or Irrationally?”

MBS is Awaiting the Return of Trump

American-Saudi relations are in a state of deep freeze. Riyadh refuses to heed Washington’s appeals for increased oil production and MBS refuses to speak with Biden after the president recently ended his yearlong boycott against the crown prince. MBS has apparently concluded that Biden is an enemy of Saudi Arabia in all but name andContinue reading “MBS is Awaiting the Return of Trump”

First Things First

American diplomacy and American leadership is imperative in ending the war in Ukraine which undoubtedly is intended by Russia to constitute the very beginning of WWIII. Relations between Moscow and Washington are at their lowest point in decades but it is nevertheless essential for the United States to reach out diplomatically to the Russian Federation.Continue reading “First Things First”

Despite Bravado Iran Fears Israel

In February 2022 Israel deployed six Israeli drones to successfully destroy hundreds of Iranian drones. It was not until now that Iran retaliated, by striking a Mossad training facility in Erbil, the capital of the KRI (Kurdistan Region of Iraq) with missiles launched from Iranian territory. This obviously represents a drastic escalation but it isContinue reading “Despite Bravado Iran Fears Israel”

A Unique Diplomatic Opportunity for Peace

Beijing’s nightmare is an Asian defense alliance encircling China from all directions and since China is surrounded by rivals, does Beijing make sure to keep close to Russia. Both Beijing and Moscow are keenly aware that a major confrontation between China and Russia over the ownership of Siberia looms on the horizon. Yet, both nationsContinue reading “A Unique Diplomatic Opportunity for Peace”

Zelensky’s Israel Campaign

Ukraine has waged a well-oiled international campaign to gain international support against the illegal Russian invasion. However, the Zelensky administration has specifically targeted Israel, in many times complaining about Israel maintaining its good relations with Russia. Why is the Zelensky administration putting so much effort into courting Israel which is merely a small country inContinue reading “Zelensky’s Israel Campaign”

Will the Russians Sober Up?

The emerging reality in Ukraine is becoming increasingly clear. Russia is winning tactically in some locations in Ukraine but is overall suffering strategic defeat. The Ukrainian military is not only highly motivated but has turned out extremely competent and skilled. The Russian conscripts in contrast lack motivation for a war that they neither support norContinue reading “Will the Russians Sober Up?”

The US Cannot Guarantee that an Anti-Semite Won’t be Elected President

The US is pressuring Israel to join the ill-advised sanctions regime against Russia which does not help Ukraine one iota and makes a diplomatic resolution more difficult. Israel is not a banana republic and has its own independent national interests. If this was an interest of secondary or tertiary importance then Israel would surely relentContinue reading “The US Cannot Guarantee that an Anti-Semite Won’t be Elected President”

Sanctions Against Russia are Counterproductive

The recently imposed sanctions regime against Russia is much ill-advised since it stands no chance of influencing the course of war and will only much complicate diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict.  Two decades ago, Vladimir Putin approached the West and asked for Russia to join NATO. This was rebuffed for obvious reasons since NATOContinue reading “Sanctions Against Russia are Counterproductive”

Open Letter to President Vladimir Putin

Dear President Putin, The military goals that you set out Mr. President, for your campaign, have not been met. The reality is that your forces have been defeated by the Ukrainians and the Russian military has suffered heavy losses. Russian conscripts lack motivation for this war and your military machine is ineffective. This is theContinue reading “Open Letter to President Vladimir Putin”

Israel Too Wants to Survive

Last year an Anti-Semite was elected president of Chile. The same thing could happen in the United States. Gone are the days when it was assured that it would always be a moderate who would be elected president of the United States. Support for Israel is declining dangerously among young Americans, including among young RepublicansContinue reading “Israel Too Wants to Survive”

MiGs Should be Delivered Discreetly

The question of how to deliver NATO MiGs to Ukraine has been dealt with insensitively. Like over weapons deliveries, the MiGs should be provided discreetly such as being dismantled into pieces and delivered by truck to Ukraine. There is no reason why this should be done with official fanfare. The Ukrainians are not served byContinue reading “MiGs Should be Delivered Discreetly”

It’s not About Ukraine – It’s About Europe

Russian propaganda has been successful in spreading the misconception that the current conflict is about Ukraine. Baltic governments have been consistently warning that the invasion of Ukraine is merely the opening salvo of WWIII. This is a classical war of imperial conquest. Russian propaganda claims that Europe is interested in conquering Russian wealth but thisContinue reading “It’s not About Ukraine – It’s About Europe”

What is the US Stratagem on Islamdom?

The Biden administration is convinced that it will succeed in concluding a nuclear agreement with Iran (I am skeptical, I don’t think the Iranians are interested other than playing for time) but what are the plans of the Biden administration for the period after a conclusion of an agreement? America’s allies in Islamdom worry thatContinue reading “What is the US Stratagem on Islamdom?”

Inside the Mind of Vladimir Putin

There has been a wide range of attempts to pathologize Russian president Vladimir Putin to explain the Ukraine war. It is surprising that otherwise rational and highly educated observers assume that the Russian system suddenly operates without an elaborate strategy. Putin’s Russia has always been similar in its geostrategic behavior to the former Soviet Union,Continue reading “Inside the Mind of Vladimir Putin”

Normalization in Limbo

In the waning days of the Trump presidency was the world presented with a long list of Muslim countries waiting to normalize relations with Israel. However, once Trump had exited the White House, the process came to an abrupt end and no more Muslim countries have so far normalized relations with Israel during the BidenContinue reading “Normalization in Limbo”

Is MBS the Ataturk of Arabia?

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud (MBS) did not initiate the process of liberalization and secularization in Saudi Arabia but he has certainly spearheaded it. MBS has proceeded methodically in promoting a feminist agenda of enfranchising women in Saudi Arabia. He has been much maligned and has been accused of being a psychopath and abusingContinue reading “Is MBS the Ataturk of Arabia?”

The Russian Military Incompetence

All militaries are incompetent to varying degrees due to regular militaries being huge apparatuses based on planned centralized command economy. This of course is breeding ground for incompetence and bureaucratic failure. Asymmetric warfare is precisely so effective because it is non-bureaucratic with a decentralized command structure. The IDF (Israel Defense Forces) is unique in theContinue reading “The Russian Military Incompetence”

The World from the Perspective of Beijing

Beijing is in the phase of building itself up as a superpower economically, politically, militarily and technologically. How does Beijing relate to Washington? China is not really hostile towards America but is determined to overtake the United States as the only superpower. China has not yet reached the phase of territorial expansion and has noContinue reading “The World from the Perspective of Beijing”

Feeding the Russian Crocodile

There is a significant likelihood and risk indeed that not militarily defending democratic Ukraine will incentivize Putin’s Russia into military aggression against NATO nations. Admitting Ukraine into NATO would have averted the Russian invasion and now it is too late, a democracy of 41 million citizens is about to fall to imperialist aggression. Putin’s impressionContinue reading “Feeding the Russian Crocodile”

It’s not About the Money

Israeli officials are somewhat hysterical in anticipation of a nuclear agreement materializing in Vienna. This of course is profoundly understandable since the JCPOA and an even worse hypothetical follow-up agreement are disastrous for Israeli security and are completely worthless as an insurance for Israeli survival. The question is however whether there will be an agreementContinue reading “It’s not About the Money”

The Strategy of Mansour Abbas

The Islamist Muslim Brotherhood was founded in 1928 by Egyptian school teacher Hassan al-Banna to establish a worldwide caliphate run under an Islamist version of sharia law. The global Muslim Brotherhood has three pillars. 1) The original underground fraternal organization as organized into national branches. 2) The front organizations including NGOs, mosques and political partiesContinue reading “The Strategy of Mansour Abbas”