The US needs a different Russia strategy as the current one simply does not work. Appeasing Russia did not work, rather the effect is that of whetting Russia’s appetite for territorial conquest of the European Union; i.e. WWIII, something which the US must strive to avoid at any and all cost. Rather, the abject US diplomatic mishandling (which almost seems deliberate) has dismantled any and all hopes for peace in Ukraine by insanely raising Russian diplomatic expectations.
What is the US interest here? Ukraine is an economic midget so the US may not have much that interest in the country per se. However, Ukraine is a mere appetizer for the EU buffet. The US is literally desperate for dissuading Russia from launching WWIII in Europe as Russia knowns, watching with educated amusement as the US cringes in near helplessness; the latest being the idea of the US recognizing the primarily ethnically Russian Ukrainian Crimea as sovereign Russian territory.
NATO is a paper tiger which unfortunately does not strike fear in the hearts of Russian military and civilian leaders. How can WWIII in Europe be avoided? As long as the war in Ukraine goes on, Russia is extremely unlikely to invade EU countries. A ceasefire in Ukraine is not in NATO’s interest since this would provide an opening for a Russian invasion of Poland and the Baltic states.
Why is Russia so interested in conquering Europe? Because China in another 20 or 30 years plans to conquer Siberia and the rest of Russia as well as other thinly populated areas around the world as part of its planned WWIV: including Alaska, Canada and thinly populated US states and subject them all to Han colonization. This is what China has been doing to ethnic minorities for thousands of years in then border areas and is as of writing doing in Tibet, Xinjiang Uyghur and Inner Mongolia. Occupied Europe’s wealth and demography would be translated into Russian military muscles, the ability to withstand a future militarily superior China.
The Trump administration’s diplomatic shock & awe and tricks & shticks have not produced the desired results. Here are some truths: 1) WWIII cannot be avoided without supplanting national militaries of European NATO powers with a unified European Military. 2) Russia is a buffer against Chinese conquest of North America and hence defending Russia from China is a US national strategic interest of the highest order which so it would seem trumps US interests in Ukraine. 3) Russia can only be dissuaded from launching WWIII by losing the war in Ukraine. 5) Russia does not trust the United States or any other state for that matter and that is not about to change, certainly not by US diplomatic fireworks. 6) Moscow will not be persuaded to align with the Washington against Beijing until it is thoroughly defeated and kicked out of the last inch of Russian-occupied sovereign Ukrainian territory. 7) Russia prefers a Russian-controlled Europe at any day to easily broken diplomatic agreements with the United States. 8) The adversarial US treatment of many US allies, including especially Ukraine, is ample evidence that Russia cannot trust the United States and so Moscow has not changed its strategy of conquering Europe which is likely to be highly successful unless the EU members get their act together and form a unified European military instead of the current ineffective national militaries.
However, in order to prevent WWIV, Russia is quite indispensable as a future US ally in encircling China. Indeed, WWIV will break out with a Chinese invasion of Russian Outer Manchuria. The era of a rule-based world order is over or at least will be over unless Russia is defeated in Ukraine and China effectively encircled by bringing a defeated Russia into the American alliance system. In fact, Russia was ready to join NATO after it was defeated in the Cold War.
How then will Russia be defeated in Ukraine? NATO will have to deploy hundreds of thousands of combat soldiers in Ukraine and simply intervene. Contrary to commonly held assumptions will this not lead to WWIII but rather effectively avoid it. Offense is the best defense. This truth is hard to swallow for the current US administration with its belief in magic diplomacy. Yes the Biden administration failed abjectly in preventing the Ukraine war. Yes the Trump administration finally persuaded its European allies to invest substantially in their own defense. However, the Western perspective according to which NATO is able to defend Europe against Russia is not shared by Moscow which is right, the Western perspective is misconceived and vastly overrates the capacity of NATO armies to repel Russian blitzwar.
Russia cannot invade the EU while it is still entangled in Ukraine and so Russia must be defeated before it invades the European Union, not after when it will be too late. NATO forces will be formidable in Ukraine while it remains true that they are incredibly weak on their own home turf due to their lack of unity.
Aliyah Organization 