Putin Bluffs Badly

Russian President Vladimir Putin claims that he is not bluffing and that he is considering attacking NATO with nuclear weapons. Once more he is trying to use his former image in the West as an ostensible “madman”. What does he come out proving? Yes, he is desperate and he is running out of options andContinue reading “Putin Bluffs Badly”

The Khomeinists are Drunk on Mahdism

International Iran experts are consistently behind the curve in missing how Iran’s current rulers are influenced by Mahdism. What is behind the most recent threats by Hassan Nasrallah against Israel concerning the gas rigs in Israel’s exclusive economic zone? Nasrallah, like other leading Khomeinists, genuinely and strongly believe that the Hezbollah-led Iranian axis has theContinue reading “The Khomeinists are Drunk on Mahdism”

The Success of Russian Psychological Warfare

Russia is currently suffering tactical military defeat on the battlefield in Ukraine and is exhausting its military assets. Yet the outcome is still a stalemate and a military deadlock on the battlefield. However, the Russians are prevailing on the strategic level because they are succeeding in their psychological warfare against NATO and the United States.Continue reading “The Success of Russian Psychological Warfare”

The US Must Learn From Ukraine War How to Prevent War in the Middle East

Why are Finland and Sweden suddenly applying for membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization? They understand the simple truth that the Russian invasion of Ukraine would never have occurred had Ukraine already been a member of NATO. NATO is not primarily an organization for waging war but above all an organization for preventing warContinue reading “The US Must Learn From Ukraine War How to Prevent War in the Middle East”

US-Saudi Defense Pact Will Enable US to Disengage from the Middle East

The US must make more demands from its allies around the world. They must invest far more in defense and engage more in collective security. In the case of the European Union they must build their own unified military capability to wean themselves off dependence on America. While the US needs to commit to defendContinue reading “US-Saudi Defense Pact Will Enable US to Disengage from the Middle East”

The West Needs to Shift Paradigm on Ukraine Military Funding

The outcome of the current level of Western militarily deliveries to Kyiv is to effectively keep democratic Ukraine on life support and produce a deadlock between Russia and Ukraine. The Armed Forces of Ukraine (ZSU) are highly capable, professional, motivated and able to defeat Russia and kick out every last occupying Russian soldier from sovereignContinue reading “The West Needs to Shift Paradigm on Ukraine Military Funding”

The West Should Stop Dragging its Feet on Arming Ukraine

Ukraine says that it has only received about 10% of the weapons deliveries it has requested from the West. What could conceivably explain this scandalous situation? Either Western governments are greedy, incompetent and bureaucratic (something which seems unlikely) to the detriment of Ukraine or else is there a deliberate policy in place of not providingContinue reading “The West Should Stop Dragging its Feet on Arming Ukraine”

Appeasement is Dangerous

There are more and more diplomatically influential Westerners who behind the political curtains make the case that Ukraine will need to make territorial concessions to Russia in order to attain peace. This completely misunderstands the conflict which is a zero-sum game where both parties to the conflict want the entire Ukraine and are completely unwillingContinue reading “Appeasement is Dangerous”

Putin Must be Humiliated to Change Course

There are voices coming out of Europe claiming that Russian president Vladimir Putin must be saved from “humiliation” in order to protect the potential for a negotiated solution. Nothing could be more wrong, in contrast what is required is a comprehensive military defeat for Moscow in Ukraine whereby the last Russian soldier is kicked outContinue reading “Putin Must be Humiliated to Change Course”

There is Nothing to Negotiate

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has long made it known that the conflict will ostensibly end at the negotiating table. It is a common tactic for parties to armed conflicts to give an impression of being open to “negotiations” and “compromise” in order to garner international sympathy. However, in this case is it ill-advised because itContinue reading “There is Nothing to Negotiate”

Russia’s Successful Nuclear Deterrence

Under what conditions would Russia be willing to use tactical nuclear weapons? It is important to understand that nuclear weapons are mainly psychological weapons. They are meant for psychological deterrence, mainly not to be used, as using strategic nuclear weapons is out of question in Europe. This surely opens the question under what circumstances andContinue reading “Russia’s Successful Nuclear Deterrence”

Derin Devlet Should Rein in Erdogan on NATO Accession

The SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) has never ever attacked Turkish territory and has never ever engaged in terrorist attacks against anyone whomsoever. While it is true that the PYD (Democratic Union Party), the governing party in AANES (Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria), is a member of of the feminist KCK (Kurdistan Communities Union)Continue reading “Derin Devlet Should Rein in Erdogan on NATO Accession”

Every Inch of Ukrainian Territory

The US government has since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine famously rhetorically committed to the defense of “every inch of NATO territory”. The US policy in defense of Ukraine has been more ambiguous and which aims at “slowing down the Russian advance”. However at one point the Ukrainians decided to go on theContinue reading “Every Inch of Ukrainian Territory”

Does Russia Fear WWIII?

How does Russia relate to the potential of World War III in Europe? On the one hand has Russia actively for a long time been planning to conquer the entire Europe and this of course is why a country such as Portugal is a member of NATO. Russia plans to become a superpower once moreContinue reading “Does Russia Fear WWIII?”

The West Should Deter Russia and Not Vice Versa

Russia has finally launched its Donbas offensive with much of the Russian army in place in eastern Ukraine. The United States and its NATO allies have had ample time to fully arm Ukraine since the February 24 invasion but have not done even remotely enough for fear of angering Moscow. Russia has been quite successfulContinue reading “The West Should Deter Russia and Not Vice Versa”

Washington Needs to Mend Ties with Riyadh

In his last and successful presidential campaign candidate Biden promised to treat Saudi Arabia like a “pariah”. It is unclear whether there was a geopolitical calculus of unrealistically realigning with Iran or if there was simply no geopolitical calculus at all behind the “pariah” statement. The latter seems likely since Saudi Arabia has certainly notContinue reading “Washington Needs to Mend Ties with Riyadh”

Biden Should put his Money Where his Mouth Is

US president Joe Biden has accused Russia of committing genocide in Ukraine with the caveat that legal experts will have to ultimately determine whether the situation actually legally constitutes genocide. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed Biden’s statement but pointed out that Ukraine urgently needs delivery of heavy weapons. One may surely wonder why NATO nationsContinue reading “Biden Should put his Money Where his Mouth Is”

How the West Misunderstands Russia and Iran

Western specialists tend to underemphasize the importance of state ideology in the foreign policy of Iran. In contrast, Western specialists tend to overemphasize the importance of state ideology in the foreign policy of Russia. There is the tendency to label the Russian leadership as irrational and dangerous while the Iranian leadership is not similarly labeledContinue reading “How the West Misunderstands Russia and Iran”

Western Foot-Dragging on Ukraine is Unforgivable

Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022 and the West has procrastinated until now in providing Ukraine with a wider range of weaponry, aside from anti-aircraft missiles and anti-tank missiles. There is constantly the Western idea of only providing Ukraine with defensive weapons and only now at the last minute when Ukraine is threatened withContinue reading “Western Foot-Dragging on Ukraine is Unforgivable”

There is no Alternative to Total Victory

Although there are ongoing so-called “negotiations” between Ukraine and Russia while Russia is pulverizing Ukrainian cities, it is clear that there is no alternative to the total liberation of Ukraine. Furthermore, there is in practice no alternative to full Ukrainian membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union. The ephemeral talk ofContinue reading “There is no Alternative to Total Victory”

The Foot-Dragging Must End

Unfortunately, the West does not want Ukraine to fully defeat Russia. Before the invasion was the universal assumption in the West that Ukraine was doomed and would only be able to survive through guerilla warfare. The heroic ZSU (Armed Forces of Ukraine) stunned an entire world in being able to hold back against the RussianContinue reading “The Foot-Dragging Must End”

Why Russia does not Want to Change Course

Two decades ago, Vladimir Putin asked the West to allow Russia to become a member of NATO. This informal request was promptly rebuffed. What view does Russia take of the option of a US-led Asian defense alliance encircling China? For Russia this is primarily a question of lack of trust or to put it differently,Continue reading “Why Russia does not Want to Change Course”

The West Should Hasten Ukraine’s Victory

The ZSU (Armed Forces of Ukraine) have exposed the Russian military as incompetent, corrupt and unmotivated. It is important to further demoralize the Russian side by hastening its defeat in Ukraine. While it is true that Russia has incrementally made tactical territorial gains, primarily in southern Ukraine, the ZSU has been winning strategically all alongContinue reading “The West Should Hasten Ukraine’s Victory”

The Absence of US-Russian Diplomacy is Extremely Dangerous

The absence of diplomatic dialogue between the United States of America and the Russian Federation at a time when Europe is seriously threatened by WWIII and Russia plans to use tactical nuclear weapons to kick out the Americans from Europe in order to conquer Europe is profoundly dangerous. For President Biden to ratchet up theContinue reading “The Absence of US-Russian Diplomacy is Extremely Dangerous”

Ukraine’s Offensive Capabilities Need be Strengthened

Russia’s plan to quickly overrun Ukraine was thwarted by the heroic ZSU (Armed Forces of Ukraine). Yet Russia has still been making incremental territorial gains and that is certainly deeply worrying. The arms provided by NATO nations to Ukraine have been defensive in nature in allowing the Ukrainians to destroy attacking Russian tanks and attackingContinue reading “Ukraine’s Offensive Capabilities Need be Strengthened”

First Things First

American diplomacy and American leadership is imperative in ending the war in Ukraine which undoubtedly is intended by Russia to constitute the very beginning of WWIII. Relations between Moscow and Washington are at their lowest point in decades but it is nevertheless essential for the United States to reach out diplomatically to the Russian Federation.Continue reading “First Things First”

Sanctions Against Russia are Counterproductive

The recently imposed sanctions regime against Russia is much ill-advised since it stands no chance of influencing the course of war and will only much complicate diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict.  Two decades ago, Vladimir Putin approached the West and asked for Russia to join NATO. This was rebuffed for obvious reasons since NATOContinue reading “Sanctions Against Russia are Counterproductive”

Open Letter to President Vladimir Putin

Dear President Putin, The military goals that you set out Mr. President, for your campaign, have not been met. The reality is that your forces have been defeated by the Ukrainians and the Russian military has suffered heavy losses. Russian conscripts lack motivation for this war and your military machine is ineffective. This is theContinue reading “Open Letter to President Vladimir Putin”

MiGs Should be Delivered Discreetly

The question of how to deliver NATO MiGs to Ukraine has been dealt with insensitively. Like over weapons deliveries, the MiGs should be provided discreetly such as being dismantled into pieces and delivered by truck to Ukraine. There is no reason why this should be done with official fanfare. The Ukrainians are not served byContinue reading “MiGs Should be Delivered Discreetly”

It’s not About Ukraine – It’s About Europe

Russian propaganda has been successful in spreading the misconception that the current conflict is about Ukraine. Baltic governments have been consistently warning that the invasion of Ukraine is merely the opening salvo of WWIII. This is a classical war of imperial conquest. Russian propaganda claims that Europe is interested in conquering Russian wealth but thisContinue reading “It’s not About Ukraine – It’s About Europe”

Inside the Mind of Vladimir Putin

There has been a wide range of attempts to pathologize Russian president Vladimir Putin to explain the Ukraine war. It is surprising that otherwise rational and highly educated observers assume that the Russian system suddenly operates without an elaborate strategy. Putin’s Russia has always been similar in its geostrategic behavior to the former Soviet Union,Continue reading “Inside the Mind of Vladimir Putin”

Feeding the Russian Crocodile

There is a significant likelihood and risk indeed that not militarily defending democratic Ukraine will incentivize Putin’s Russia into military aggression against NATO nations. Admitting Ukraine into NATO would have averted the Russian invasion and now it is too late, a democracy of 41 million citizens is about to fall to imperialist aggression. Putin’s impressionContinue reading “Feeding the Russian Crocodile”

A President Who Fears WWIII Will Get Exactly That

President Joe Biden is on the record of admitting that he is afraid of WWIII with Russia. This is just one more example in a long line of statements by the Biden administration (usually not by President Biden himself) that reinforce the international impression of the Biden administration as “weak”. For an American president toContinue reading “A President Who Fears WWIII Will Get Exactly That”

Finland and Sweden Should Join NATO While They Still Can

The case of Ukraine clearly shows that staying out of NATO is not a safe option for European nations. Finland and Sweden have always opted to stay out of NATO for reasons of military strategy. An invasion of Finland and Sweden would essentially offer a detour and diversion for the Russian forces and would lengthenContinue reading “Finland and Sweden Should Join NATO While They Still Can”

A Grand Bargain for Peace

Contrary to what Moscow claims, Russia’s military buildup against Ukraine has nothing to do with a perceived threat from NATO and in contrast has everything to do with China. This obviously requires some explanation. Russia is infamous for its propaganda and disinformation and has long disingenuously claimed that NATO (a purely defensive organization) has offensiveContinue reading “A Grand Bargain for Peace”

Biden Would Deploy US Troops to Ukraine if he Were a Wilsonian

The case of Ukraine is a test case for the dying liberal world order. If President Joe Biden were a Wilsonian as he purports to be then surely he would intervene militarily on the side of Ukraine, instead he openly admits that he won’t do so for fear of triggering World War III. Ukraine isContinue reading “Biden Would Deploy US Troops to Ukraine if he Were a Wilsonian”

Biden’s Ukraine Policy Harms US Interests

Why is it that the US government has a Ukraine policy that it does not believe will be effective? On the one hand does the US threaten Russia with severe economic sanctions and on other hand does the US predict that there is a high likelihood of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. At the sameContinue reading “Biden’s Ukraine Policy Harms US Interests”

Russia Deters America in Ukraine

Why is America not admitting Ukraine to NATO and putting an end to the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine? The US should militarily deter Russia from invading Ukraine yet it is the US that has ended up deterred by Russia. The Biden administration wields the threat of economic sanctions against Russia despite PresidentContinue reading “Russia Deters America in Ukraine”

The US Perception, Credibility and Deterrence Problem

The US has a problem with credibility and thus also with deterrence. This is largely a perception problem based on the erroneous view that the current US administration is afraid of war. However, the Biden administration does not seem to understand that the position of the US as regards one region affects US credibility inContinue reading “The US Perception, Credibility and Deterrence Problem”

NATO Must Stand with Ukraine

Russia continues its buildup of forces alongside the border with Ukraine. This is the test of the success of US deterrence. If US economic deterrence were successful would Russia surely discontinue its military buildup near Ukraine. US intelligence has provided proof that Russia plans false flag operations in the rebel regions of eastern Ukraine asContinue reading “NATO Must Stand with Ukraine”

Why Iran does not Fear Invasion

Iran is convinced that General Frank McKenzie was bluffing when recently threatening a US invasion of Iran should Iran attack America. Tehran knows that the American people are tired of Middle Eastern wars and have no appetite for an invasion of Iran. Furthermore, Iran is convinced that the Biden administration despite repeatedly denying so isContinue reading “Why Iran does not Fear Invasion”

The Islamist Nexus

Is there an emerging transdenominational Islamist nexus in the Middle East? There are significant tactical differences between different Islamist movements and Sunni Islamists and Shia Islamists disagree as to whether Sunnis of Shias should rule the worldwide Islamist theocracy that they believe is inevitable due to ostensibly being divinely decreed. Iran and Turkey have closeContinue reading “The Islamist Nexus”

Why did Saddam Hussein not Turn Over his WMD to the UN?

Saddam Hussein is known to have had weapons of mass destruction and he used chemical weapons against his own Kurdish citizens and against the Iranian military. The pacifist myth according to which Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction was an American propaganda fabrication therefore does not hold water. There was a United Nations inspections regimeContinue reading “Why did Saddam Hussein not Turn Over his WMD to the UN?”

Derin Devlet should Facilitate NATO Participation in Iran Coalition

Will NATO officially participate in the emerging international coalition to destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons program and impose a no-fly zone over Iran that will provide air support to armed rebellions throughout the country? There is a severe threat of chemical weapons mass terrorist attacks against NATO member states subsequent to the joint American-Israeli destruction ofContinue reading “Derin Devlet should Facilitate NATO Participation in Iran Coalition”

Ukrainian NATO Accession is a Vital American National Security Interest

The Ukraine crisis is testing the Biden administration. The Russian buildup of military forces east of Ukraine illustrates the peril of not expanding NATO. Yet, the United States is effectively only threatening financial sanctions against Russia, or at least that is the general perception. The crisis illustrates that further NATO expansion eastwards should be anContinue reading “Ukrainian NATO Accession is a Vital American National Security Interest”

How Imminent is War?

If Israel alone had dictated the timing of the destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program had it been determined either by the pace of progress in the Iran’s nuclear weapons program or the date would be after the June 2023 Turkish presidential and parliamentary elections but obviously not earlier than the Israeli project toContinue reading “How Imminent is War?”

Erdogan and the Derin Devlet

The Sabbatean-controlled Derin Devlet deep state domestic intelligence apparatus in Turkey has roots in the Young Turks regime, some of whose members were Sabbateans. The Young Turks originated in the then Ottoman city of Thessaloniki (now in Greece) which was also the center of the Sabbatean subdenomination of the Bektashi order, one of nine denominationsContinue reading “Erdogan and the Derin Devlet”

The Shifting American Interest in the Middle East and Islamdom

The perception of the American interest in the Middle East is shifting. Once was the American interest in the Gulf in supporting Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states based almost entirely on the provision of oil to America by the Gulf states. America is no longer dependent on Gulf oil since America is now energyContinue reading “The Shifting American Interest in the Middle East and Islamdom”

Erdogan Seeks to Sabotage Turkey’s Alliance with the West

Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan continues his policy of sabotaging Turkey’s relations with NATO and the West in defiance of the Sabbatean-controlled Derin Devlet, Turkey’s Deep State domestic intelligence apparatus which is keen on Turkey’s alliance with the West. The latest move is to order the expulsion of the ambassadors of Canada, Denmark, France, Germany,Continue reading “Erdogan Seeks to Sabotage Turkey’s Alliance with the West”

Erdogan is Trying to get Turkey Expelled from NATO

Turkish politics has since 2003 been based on an uneasy power-sharing and indeed heated rivalry been the Muslim Brotherhood controlled AKP regime and the Sabbatean (“Dönmeh”) controlled so-called Derin Devlet (Turkish for ‘Deep State’).  NATO membership is sacred for the Derin Devlet which will not allow the AKP to lead Turkey out of NATO. RussiaContinue reading “Erdogan is Trying to get Turkey Expelled from NATO”