Understanding MBS

There has been much speculation regarding Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman’s pivot away from Israel. Does he still favor normalization with Israel or does he not? The most important thing to understand about MBS at present is his domestic weakness. This is why the volume of Jew hatred has been turned up rather than toned down in the KSA. We have seen exactly the same scenario in Jordan in recent years. King Abdullah II is weak and vulnerable domestically and therefore has the Jew hatred been turned up. This is not because MBS and Abdallah are negatively disposed towards Israel, in fact they both depend on Israel very much, rather the overt hostility towards Jews and Israel is a consequence of domestic weakness of the ruler. What is the role of the Gaza War in all this? The October 7 massacre in Israel, not the Gaza War, caused a Juggernaut of global hatred towards Jews and Israel and this strengthens the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamists and weakens current rulers. MBS is simply afraid of being unseated in a palace coup and this is why he dares no longer oppose the Islamists and promote normalization with Israel. If MBS is weak, then that makes KSA weak. Anyway, Saudi-Israeli normalization is off the table for the moment but this may change in the future depending on the circumstances. At this point, the KSA projects weakness which is also a reflection of the larger uncertainty in the region as to what will happen with Iran. If the Khomeinist regime falls then that is bad news also for Sunni Islamists in the region and Qatar will likely stop financing the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamists. The Qatari regime is neither a theocracy nor Islamist in ideology. Their financial support for Sunni Islamism is an effect of their geographical proximity to the Islamic Republic of Iran which they immensely fear. What is rather likely is an increasing hostility between Israel and Turkey which will replace Qatar as the main funder of the Muslim Brotherhood. This will give Ankara the tools to undermine MBS’ regime and this is one of the reasons why MBS no longer dares to stand against the Islamists.