Why Hezbollah Will Attack Israel

There are multiple reasons why Hezbollah and its allies in the Iranian axis in the Middle East will engage in a frontal assault on Israel after Israel and the US destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program once so-called “negotiations” have become completely exhausted. 1. The Iranian regime systematically states that this will happen if theContinue reading “Why Hezbollah Will Attack Israel”

America, Israel and Iran – A Reality Check

The reality that most do not want to acknowledge is that the Khomeinist leadership in Iran for their own reasons simply do not want to return to the JCPOA and they are not interested in any alternative agreement either. Any viable agreement would have to have bipartisan support and be acceptable to Israel and itsContinue reading “America, Israel and Iran – A Reality Check”

The Approaching Khomeinist Apocalypse

“I am decisely announcing to the whole world that if the world-devourers [the infidel powers] wish to stand against our religion, we will stand against the whole world and will not cease until the annihilation of all of them. Either we all become free, or we will go to the greater freedom, which is martyrdom.Continue reading “The Approaching Khomeinist Apocalypse”

The United States Needs Saudi Arabia

The early assessment by the Biden administration that a return to the JCPOA could be taken for granted and that the US did not really need Saudi Arabia as an ally has been disproven by subsequent events. Iran is more aggressive than ever and Ali Khamenei is apparently grooming the arch-extremist president Ebrahim Raisi asContinue reading “The United States Needs Saudi Arabia”

The Danger of Preemptive Apocalypse

Tehran is currently moderately convinced that America and Israel will not dare to destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program. This is one of the reasons for its rejectionism in Vienna. Nevertheless, on Quds Day, Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah threatened that Iran might attack Israel directly if Israeli sabotage operations against the Iranian nuclear weapons programContinue reading “The Danger of Preemptive Apocalypse”

What is Wrong with the Iran Experts?

For over a year Iran experts and intelligence analysts around the world predicted that Iran would return to the JCPOA. Only now are Israeli officials coming to the realization that there won’t be an agreement. Even so they claim that chances of an agreement are “slim to none”. This reveals a complete misreading of theContinue reading “What is Wrong with the Iran Experts?”

Inside the Khomeinist Mind

The Iranian regime openly states that its overarching geostrategic goal is to prompt the reappearance of the Hidden Imam. Yet academic experts and intelligence analysts do tend to not pay attention to the religious dimension of Iranian decision making. Khomeinism is unique in the sense as being the only form of Islamism that is apocalypticContinue reading “Inside the Khomeinist Mind”

The Case for a Tripartite Democratic World Order

The rise of the three neo-imperialist powers of China, Iran and Russia and the inevitability that China will eventually grow more powerful than America due to China’s greater demographic size once Beijing begins to economically catch up with Washington requires a new world order. Rather than one democratic superpower should we envision a world orderContinue reading “The Case for a Tripartite Democratic World Order”

Washington Needs to Mend Ties with Riyadh

In his last and successful presidential campaign candidate Biden promised to treat Saudi Arabia like a “pariah”. It is unclear whether there was a geopolitical calculus of unrealistically realigning with Iran or if there was simply no geopolitical calculus at all behind the “pariah” statement. The latter seems likely since Saudi Arabia has certainly notContinue reading “Washington Needs to Mend Ties with Riyadh”

It’s Anti-Semitism Stupid!

What is the problem with Iran? Is it Islam? No, there are dozens of sovereign Muslim nations that are responsible members of the international community. Is it totalitarianism? Well, totalitarianism does not in of itself necessarily make a country externally aggressive. Is it imperialism? No, imperialism is seldom as malign as the Iranian version. TheContinue reading “It’s Anti-Semitism Stupid!”

How the West Misunderstands Russia and Iran

Western specialists tend to underemphasize the importance of state ideology in the foreign policy of Iran. In contrast, Western specialists tend to overemphasize the importance of state ideology in the foreign policy of Russia. There is the tendency to label the Russian leadership as irrational and dangerous while the Iranian leadership is not similarly labeledContinue reading “How the West Misunderstands Russia and Iran”

The Price of Aggression

Let there be no doubt that if Hezbollah and the rest of the Iranian axis launch a frontal assault on Israel in response to Israel and America destroying the Iranian nuclear weapons program there will surely be a hefty price to pay. There will be consequences, there will be a major war in the northernContinue reading “The Price of Aggression”

Khomeinism and Iranian Foreign Policy

Ayatollah Khomeini introduced a governing principle according to which Iranian national interests take precedence over sharia. This may seem surprising for an Islamist theocratic regime but can be observed in Iranian foreign policy for various parts of the world. Iran is completely silent on China’s Han colonization of Xinjiang and totalitarian policies of coerced assimilationContinue reading “Khomeinism and Iranian Foreign Policy”

There is no Alternative to Total Victory

Although there are ongoing so-called “negotiations” between Ukraine and Russia while Russia is pulverizing Ukrainian cities, it is clear that there is no alternative to the total liberation of Ukraine. Furthermore, there is in practice no alternative to full Ukrainian membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union. The ephemeral talk ofContinue reading “There is no Alternative to Total Victory”

Building the Regional Security Architecture Cannot Wait

The triangular relationship between the State of Israel, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United States of America is essential for the emerging regional security architecture in the Middle East and Islamdom at large. Much is at stake, will Iran come to dominate the Middle East and Islamdom or will it not? All thisContinue reading “Building the Regional Security Architecture Cannot Wait”

The US Needs to Provide Incentives to Saudi Arabia

In 2021 Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman al-Saud made a generous offer to US National Security Advisory Jake Sullivan. MBS offered to normalize relations with Israel in return for a list of demands for so-called “incentives” (i.e. security guarantees and weapons sales). The Americans not only inexplicably turned down the generous offer but apparently rudelyContinue reading “The US Needs to Provide Incentives to Saudi Arabia”

Saudi Arabia is Indispensable to the New Regional Security Architecture

Iran is engaged in a concerted military expansion of its military assets in the Middle East, including missiles and drones. The State of Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia are the two most important pillars in the emerging new regional security architecture in the Middle East in particular and in Islamdom at large. Yet,Continue reading “Saudi Arabia is Indispensable to the New Regional Security Architecture”

Who is Right on Iran?

What are Iran’s intentions in Vienna? Non-Iranian intelligence agencies do not appear to know. Many weeks ago there was a flood of Israeli predictions of an imminent deal in Vienna but those fears have certainly not materialized and now even the Americans appear skeptical at the feasibility of a return to the JCPOA. I haveContinue reading “Who is Right on Iran?”

Why Russia does not Want to Change Course

Two decades ago, Vladimir Putin asked the West to allow Russia to become a member of NATO. This informal request was promptly rebuffed. What view does Russia take of the option of a US-led Asian defense alliance encircling China? For Russia this is primarily a question of lack of trust or to put it differently,Continue reading “Why Russia does not Want to Change Course”

MBS is Awaiting the Return of Trump

American-Saudi relations are in a state of deep freeze. Riyadh refuses to heed Washington’s appeals for increased oil production and MBS refuses to speak with Biden after the president recently ended his yearlong boycott against the crown prince. MBS has apparently concluded that Biden is an enemy of Saudi Arabia in all but name andContinue reading “MBS is Awaiting the Return of Trump”

Despite Bravado Iran Fears Israel

In February 2022 Israel deployed six Israeli drones to successfully destroy hundreds of Iranian drones. It was not until now that Iran retaliated, by striking a Mossad training facility in Erbil, the capital of the KRI (Kurdistan Region of Iraq) with missiles launched from Iranian territory. This obviously represents a drastic escalation but it isContinue reading “Despite Bravado Iran Fears Israel”

A Unique Diplomatic Opportunity for Peace

Beijing’s nightmare is an Asian defense alliance encircling China from all directions and since China is surrounded by rivals, does Beijing make sure to keep close to Russia. Both Beijing and Moscow are keenly aware that a major confrontation between China and Russia over the ownership of Siberia looms on the horizon. Yet, both nationsContinue reading “A Unique Diplomatic Opportunity for Peace”

Why was the Palestinian Authority Established?

Neither Israel nor the PLO signed the Oslo Accords in good faith. The PLO was founded to destroy Israel and has never abandoned its Anti-Zionist zeal to destroy the Jewish state. Israel of course was keenly aware of this fact but sought to unburden itself of military administration of millions of Palestinians. Palestinian autonomy wasContinue reading “Why was the Palestinian Authority Established?”

It’s not About Ukraine – It’s About Europe

Russian propaganda has been successful in spreading the misconception that the current conflict is about Ukraine. Baltic governments have been consistently warning that the invasion of Ukraine is merely the opening salvo of WWIII. This is a classical war of imperial conquest. Russian propaganda claims that Europe is interested in conquering Russian wealth but thisContinue reading “It’s not About Ukraine – It’s About Europe”

What is the US Stratagem on Islamdom?

The Biden administration is convinced that it will succeed in concluding a nuclear agreement with Iran (I am skeptical, I don’t think the Iranians are interested other than playing for time) but what are the plans of the Biden administration for the period after a conclusion of an agreement? America’s allies in Islamdom worry thatContinue reading “What is the US Stratagem on Islamdom?”

Normalization in Limbo

In the waning days of the Trump presidency was the world presented with a long list of Muslim countries waiting to normalize relations with Israel. However, once Trump had exited the White House, the process came to an abrupt end and no more Muslim countries have so far normalized relations with Israel during the BidenContinue reading “Normalization in Limbo”

Is MBS the Ataturk of Arabia?

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud (MBS) did not initiate the process of liberalization and secularization in Saudi Arabia but he has certainly spearheaded it. MBS has proceeded methodically in promoting a feminist agenda of enfranchising women in Saudi Arabia. He has been much maligned and has been accused of being a psychopath and abusingContinue reading “Is MBS the Ataturk of Arabia?”

The Russian Military Incompetence

All militaries are incompetent to varying degrees due to regular militaries being huge apparatuses based on planned centralized command economy. This of course is breeding ground for incompetence and bureaucratic failure. Asymmetric warfare is precisely so effective because it is non-bureaucratic with a decentralized command structure. The IDF (Israel Defense Forces) is unique in theContinue reading “The Russian Military Incompetence”

The World from the Perspective of Beijing

Beijing is in the phase of building itself up as a superpower economically, politically, militarily and technologically. How does Beijing relate to Washington? China is not really hostile towards America but is determined to overtake the United States as the only superpower. China has not yet reached the phase of territorial expansion and has noContinue reading “The World from the Perspective of Beijing”

Feeding the Russian Crocodile

There is a significant likelihood and risk indeed that not militarily defending democratic Ukraine will incentivize Putin’s Russia into military aggression against NATO nations. Admitting Ukraine into NATO would have averted the Russian invasion and now it is too late, a democracy of 41 million citizens is about to fall to imperialist aggression. Putin’s impressionContinue reading “Feeding the Russian Crocodile”

It’s not About the Money

Israeli officials are somewhat hysterical in anticipation of a nuclear agreement materializing in Vienna. This of course is profoundly understandable since the JCPOA and an even worse hypothetical follow-up agreement are disastrous for Israeli security and are completely worthless as an insurance for Israeli survival. The question is however whether there will be an agreementContinue reading “It’s not About the Money”

The Strategy of Mansour Abbas

The Islamist Muslim Brotherhood was founded in 1928 by Egyptian school teacher Hassan al-Banna to establish a worldwide caliphate run under an Islamist version of sharia law. The global Muslim Brotherhood has three pillars. 1) The original underground fraternal organization as organized into national branches. 2) The front organizations including NGOs, mosques and political partiesContinue reading “The Strategy of Mansour Abbas”

Who Will Invade Whom?

Israel and Iran have completely different assessments as to the outcome of the future conflict between Israel and the so-called “Axis of Resistance” in the Levant. Iran assumes that massive barrages of rockets and missiles, many of them with chemical warheads, will inflict such heavy damage on the Israeli home front and cause such disorientationContinue reading “Who Will Invade Whom?”

The Aman Conceptzia

There is a dispute within Aman (Israeli military intelligence) regarding the intentions of Hezbollah. Is Hezbollah an Iranian proxy or is it a Lebanese patriotic organization? Is Hezbollah primarily interested in taking over Israel or taking over Lebanon? Of course, Hezbollah is run by one man, Hassan Nasrallah who makes all important decisions and althoughContinue reading “The Aman Conceptzia”

The New Agenda of the Derin Devlet

The upcoming visit by Israeli president Isaac Herzog to Ankara is a clear sign that the Sabbatean-controlled Derin Devlet deep state domestic intelligence apparatus  has gained the upper hand in the power struggle with Muslim Brotherhood intelligence within the MIT (National Intelligence Organization) and other state organs. Turkish foreign policy has for long been underContinue reading “The New Agenda of the Derin Devlet”

The Biden Administration is Detached From Reality

An Israeli government source cited in an Israeli newspaper recently noted that the American government acts according to its own worldview and political philosophy, yet implied that the impending Russian invasion of Ukraine was a result of America’s yearlong fruitless appeasement of the totalitarian regime in Tehran. The Biden administration is apparently not aware ofContinue reading “The Biden Administration is Detached From Reality”

A Grand Bargain for Peace

Contrary to what Moscow claims, Russia’s military buildup against Ukraine has nothing to do with a perceived threat from NATO and in contrast has everything to do with China. This obviously requires some explanation. Russia is infamous for its propaganda and disinformation and has long disingenuously claimed that NATO (a purely defensive organization) has offensiveContinue reading “A Grand Bargain for Peace”

Master Tacticians, Strategic Lunatics

Iran is tactically brilliant in always seeing opportunities to expand its influence but it must be kept in mind that it is strategically lunatic in seeking world rule for the Hidden Imam as its ultimate strategic goal. Hezbollah’s intentions have been much debated within the Israeli intelligence community. What is Hezbollah? Hezbollah is a franchiseContinue reading “Master Tacticians, Strategic Lunatics”

The Death of the Liberal World Order

The US project of imposing a liberal world order has a long pedigree going back to US president Woodrow Wilson a century ago. The pro-democracy efforts by US President George W. Bush resulted in the Arab spring years later but failed to establish liberal democracy other than in Tunisia where it did not last. WithContinue reading “The Death of the Liberal World Order”

Iran does not Want to Defer the Apocalypse

Due to crushing UN economic sanctions did Iran agree to the JCPOA in 2015. Iran’s economic situation was such that Iran’s leaders agreed to defer the timeline of the Khomeinist apocalypse. Today in contrast there is no such incentive as Iran is able to export oil to China, and Tehran rightly sees no economic benefitContinue reading “Iran does not Want to Defer the Apocalypse”

It’s Theology Stupid

The dominant paradigm in Middle Eastern studies is so-called “Postcolonialism”, a particular worldview which ironically privileges the perspectives of Islamist imperialists and Arabist colonialist over their indigenous victims. Postcolonialism is a form of Post-Marxism rooted in the doctrine of historical materialism which consistently plays down the influence of religion on politics. Yet the major civilizationsContinue reading “It’s Theology Stupid”

The Approaching Apocalypse

Khomeinism is different from all other forms of Islamism in that it constitutes an apocalyptic death cult. No other sect of Islamism believes that the end of days is close in time. However, Khomeinism has no fixed date for the apocalypse which is somewhat flexible in time. The general understanding is that eschatological time wasContinue reading “The Approaching Apocalypse”

Regionwide War and Global Terror

Iran does not fear America which it considers bruised by war and defeated by international Jihadism. In the Khomeinist Weltanschauung is Israel merely one of the tentacles of the “worldwide” American-Jewish “octopus” and so Tehran believes that Jerusalem cannot independently decide on destroying Iran’s nuclear weapons program without a green light from Washington. Therefore willContinue reading “Regionwide War and Global Terror”

Malley will not Change the Khomeinist Weltanschauung

The current academic paradigm in Middle Eastern studies assumes that dialogue and cooperation with Islamists is feasible, practical, realistic and desirable, in other words is appeasement of totalitarians the predominant theory of action. The ruling mullahs in Tehran understand well the mindset of useful infidels like Rob Malley and how to diplomatically exploit it. TheContinue reading “Malley will not Change the Khomeinist Weltanschauung”

The Biden Administration has a Communication Problem

Why is the Biden administration so widely perceived as “weak”? It began with Donald Trump labeling Joe Biden as “Sleepy Joe” in 2020. Republicans subsequently came to widely characterize Joe Biden as “weak”. Then came the disastrous collapse in Afghanistan and the chaotic American pullout which left hundreds of thousands behind who urgently needed toContinue reading “The Biden Administration has a Communication Problem”

The American Desperation

The JCPOA is inching towards collapse as the definite burial of the JCPOA is only days away. The US sanctions on the Iranian civilian nuclear program were lifted as a desperate goodwill gesture to the Khomeinist regime to show them that the American government is acting in good faith. America faces a dark future asContinue reading “The American Desperation”

Will Qatar’s Foreign Policy Shift After Regime Change in Iran?

Qatar’s foreign policy is based on both being aligned with the United States and the Islamist nexus (including Iran) despite the Qatari ruling class themselves not being Islamists and hence the Qatari policy of funding Islamists, Jihadists and terrorists everywhere. Similarly has Qatar maintained a peculiar policy of both being aligned with Hamas and maintainingContinue reading “Will Qatar’s Foreign Policy Shift After Regime Change in Iran?”

China or Russia cannot Substitute America’s Role in Islamdom

Why did the Biden administration discontinue the Trump administration policy of intending to devolve most of America’s superpower duties in Islamdom to Israel? There is only one answer: Suspicion that Israel will realign with China. The US nightmare scenario is that Washington would hand over most of its superpower duties in Islamdom to Jerusalem andContinue reading “China or Russia cannot Substitute America’s Role in Islamdom”

Conflict with Iran is Inevitable

There is no chance of reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran for the simple reason that Tehran is not interested in temporary sanctions relief as the next Republican administration would promptly reimpose sanctions. However, even if hypothetically a nuclear agreement was reached between Tehran and Washington, this would only defer the conflict. Iran is hell-bentContinue reading “Conflict with Iran is Inevitable”

How Iran Interprets America’s Eagerness to Return to the JCPOA

“Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” Albert Einstein How does Tehran perceive American eagerness to return to the JCPOA and Rob Malley’s desperate appeasement negotiations tactics in Vienna? The Iranian impression is that the White House greatly fears Iran and that Iranian biological weapons terrorist deterrence vis-a-visContinue reading “How Iran Interprets America’s Eagerness to Return to the JCPOA”