Israel’s Ukrainian Conundrum

What are the reasons for Israel refraining from selling lethal weapons to Ukraine despite it clearly being in the interest of Israel that Russia is defeated and thus WWIII is avoided and China is contained? Because that much is at stake in the Ukraine war.  In contrast to this fear-based policy in which Israeli weaponsContinue reading “Israel’s Ukrainian Conundrum”

The Neutrality Illusion

Kuwait, Oman and Qatar maintain policies of neutrality while benefiting from covert defense cooperation with Israel. However, they should have no illusions regarding Iran’s intention to conquer them as well. In fact, it will be pivotal for those three nations to join a MENA defense alliance. Staying neutral would be delusional.

Algeria Must Prioritize its own National Interests

Algeria is currently bent on not joining the normalization bandwagon. However, the apparent existence of a Russo-Iranian new Molotov-Ribbentrop pact whereby Moscow gets the entire Europe and Tehran gets the entire Arab world should make Algiers rethink its entire approach. Iran is absolutely intent on conquering all Arab countries, including Algeria; and Israel as theContinue reading “Algeria Must Prioritize its own National Interests”

Iran is Betting on an Arab Domino Effect

Arab governments are for the most part profoundly suspicious of each other yet nowadays quite trusting of Israel in many respects. This is the crux of forming a Middle Eastern defense alliance. Arab governments don’t mind secretly aligning with Israel but balk at aligning with each other. The problem in military terms is that IranContinue reading “Iran is Betting on an Arab Domino Effect”

Iran is Determined to Destroy America

According to Iran’s regime ideology is America, Tehran’s main enemy. The reason this is so as for all Islamist ideologists is that the American superpower is considered identical with the purported global Jewish conspiracy to destroy Islam. The Obama and Biden administrations have pursued a strategy of appeasing Iran and hoping to eventually align withContinue reading “Iran is Determined to Destroy America”

Why is Tehran Training for a US-led Naval Invasion of Iran?

Iran regards the sole threat to its territory as coming from the Persian Gulf; i.e. from a US-led naval invasion of Iran and is actively training to counter this perceived threat. However, on the face of it, this seems utterly implausible in the extreme. Why would the United States want to get entangled in yetContinue reading “Why is Tehran Training for a US-led Naval Invasion of Iran?”

More Than Meets the Eye

Russia plans to deliver a new air force to Iran and Iran is delivering kamikaze drones to Russia. That is what is known about the extent of the military relationship between Iran and Russia which has obviously reached a strategic level. Both nations are militarily adventurous and plan big conquests which they however at thisContinue reading “More Than Meets the Eye”

The Battle Lines Have Been Drawn

It has become clear that behind the mutual arming between Iran and Russia is a new Molotov-Ribbentrop pact. Russia gets the entire Europe and Iran gets the entire Arab world, including Israel. Putin’s decision of course is not motivated by hostility against Israel, it is simply realpolitik. It makes sense to tie up American forcesContinue reading “The Battle Lines Have Been Drawn”

Not for Sentimental or Religious Reasons

Israeli state strategists have treated the issue of the Temple Mount as a mere sentimental and religious one. This has also been the line promoted by national-religious advocates of reappropriation of Jewish heritage and Jewish rights on the Mount. For Palestinian strategists in contrast is this a matter of immense strategic importance. For Palestinian strategistsContinue reading “Not for Sentimental or Religious Reasons”

A Nucleus of a Middle Eastern Defense Alliance

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has made three demands from the US for making peace with Israel. Those are 1) a KSA-USA defense treaty, 2) NATO-level deliveries of weaponry and 3) what appears to be a demand to purchase the new small highly cost-effective nuclear power plants that are currently being developed inContinue reading “A Nucleus of a Middle Eastern Defense Alliance”

The New Israeli Government Represents an Opportunity for Peace

The Biden administration often repeats its commitment to resolving the Palestinian issue through an infamously failed formula which was always dead on arrival due to being founded on outright false premises constituting on the American side simply wishful thinking and refusal to learn from recent Israeli history. What is peculiar is that the Biden administrationContinue reading “The New Israeli Government Represents an Opportunity for Peace”

Free Kurdistan Should Prepare for Independence

The recent visit by PUK leader Bafel Talabani to AANES is certainly a most welcome and encouraging development. There should have been intra-Kurdish reconciliation between the different political parties of Kurdistan a long time ago but better late than never. The ongoing historical revolutionary processes in Iran means that there is quite realistically potentially anContinue reading “Free Kurdistan Should Prepare for Independence”

An Opportunity to Renew Confidence with Gulf Allies

After OPEC decided to decrease oil production quotas, the Biden administration determined to conduct a formal reassessment of the US relationship with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. America in effect has no choice but to defend Gulf oil fields against Iran irrespective of what MBS does domestically and internationally and MBS knows it because theContinue reading “An Opportunity to Renew Confidence with Gulf Allies”

US Persian Gulf Strategy Harms American Interests

President Barack Obama’s Middle Eastern strategy of handing over the Muslim world to the Islamists as a means to defuse US-Muslim tensions and ostensibly facilitate so-called “Islamic democracy” which of course the peoples of Iran do enjoy so much (!) has fortunately not been maintained by the Biden administration despite largely being staffed by TeamContinue reading “US Persian Gulf Strategy Harms American Interests”

Civil War Appears Inevitable in Iran

The juggernaut of the current feminist revolution is unstoppable yet currently unable to bring down the detested Khomeinist regime. It appears however quite inevitable that the revolution at some point will descend into civil war. The demonstrators have at this point virtually limitless patience and the regime is effectively unable to crack down on theContinue reading “Civil War Appears Inevitable in Iran”

The Mullahs Fear the Women’s Revolution

The ruling mullahs in Iran are gravely concerned and rightly so. Why is this the case you may ask? They are afraid of the soft power of protesting feminists and particularly of Kurdish women and so are making great efforts to present women protesters as pawns of Iran’s enemies. Iran has active plans to attackContinue reading “The Mullahs Fear the Women’s Revolution”

US Threats Against Riyadh Incentivize Tehran to Attack the KSA

Why is Tehran threatening Riyadh while planning to attack, possibly even invade Saudi Arabia? Well, the main reason is that the mullahs believe that the Americans would not defend the KSA. The situation has been exacerbated by recent American threats against Saudi Arabia which in turn are rooted in a dysfunctional US policy towards IranContinue reading “US Threats Against Riyadh Incentivize Tehran to Attack the KSA”

On the Need for a Counter-Strategy to Iranian Mahdism

There is a profound strategic problem with respect to how Washington and Jerusalem deal with Tehran. Iran is no less motivated by Mahdism in its neo-imperialist strategy than the Soviet Union was motivated by Marxism-Leninism in its own imperialist strategy. Yet Washington and Jerusalem in their respective public rhetoric do not give any hint ofContinue reading “On the Need for a Counter-Strategy to Iranian Mahdism”

Who is Behind the Anti-Saudi Lobby?

Intelligence agencies may legally engage in political action in foreign countries as long as they do not break the law. The Israel lobby in the United States is meticulous in not technically acting as foreign agents and thus does not break the law despite acting as the long arm of Tevel, the Political Action andContinue reading “Who is Behind the Anti-Saudi Lobby?”

Biden has to Choose Between Iran and Saudi Arabia

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has had enough, he does not trust the United States in general and President Biden in particular and for good reasons. Three US presidents (Obama, Trump and Biden) have pursued American disengagement from the Middle East. Trump refrained from defending Saudi Arabia when it was attacked by Iran and MBSContinue reading “Biden has to Choose Between Iran and Saudi Arabia”

The Mullahs Fear an Armed Revolt

Why are the ruling mullahs specifically cracking down so hard on Iranian Kurdistan and attacking and threatening to invade Iraqi Kurdistan? Because most Iranians like so many other Middle Easterners maintain assault rifles in their homes and hence the current peaceful feminist revolution in Iran could seamlessly evolve into an armed revolt and where isContinue reading “The Mullahs Fear an Armed Revolt”

The US is to Blame for Failed Mideast Policy

Islamdom is America’s weak spot. George W. Bush tried to democratize Islamdom only to find out that the majority of the electorate in many Muslim nations votes Islamist, meaning that there are no prospects for democratization in many Muslim nations because the majority of the people wants totalitarianism. Yet, Bush’s democratization campaign resulted in theContinue reading “The US is to Blame for Failed Mideast Policy”

Enough Scapegoating MBS for US Policy Failure

It is rather well-known that there is no love lost between President Joe Biden and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. So let’s just try to analyze what led to the latest fallout in this utterly undiplomatic saga. MBS is leading the feminist revolution in Saudi Arabia and now there is another one playing out inContinue reading “Enough Scapegoating MBS for US Policy Failure”

Hezbollah’s Diplomatic Lobby

As the Middle East finds itself on the brink of war the usual suspects in the so-called international community undoubtedly once more line up to pressure the Jewish state. However, Hezbollah has been instructed by Tehran to start a war with Israel for reasons unrelated to Lebanon and so it does not really matter whetherContinue reading “Hezbollah’s Diplomatic Lobby”

Israel Borders Iran

What we are witnessing is truly surreal. It is becoming ever more clear that Lebanon has ceased to exist as an independent nation and is now merely an Iranian protectorate. Iran is currently carrying out two faux negotiation processes with its two archenemies, Israel and the United States, through proxies. The negotiation process with IsraelContinue reading “Israel Borders Iran”

How Iran is Instigating War

Why would Iran want a war in the Levant now? This is an excellent question that requires some elaboration. Iran is moderately convinced that Israel and America are deterred by Iranian weapons of mass destruction and will not dare to destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program. However, Tehran is less certain when it comes toContinue reading “How Iran is Instigating War”

Biden Needs to Reassess US Mideast Policy

President Biden is continuing his policy of indefinite nuclear talks with Tehran, refusing to activate Plan B until the very last moment, refusing to impose a no-fly zone in support of the emerging Iranian rebellion while failing or refusing to conclude a defense pact with Saudi Arabia. While visiting Jeddah did Biden claim that itContinue reading “Biden Needs to Reassess US Mideast Policy”

Washington Shouldn’t be Surprised

Washington is unpleasantly surprised over OPEC’s production cut and accuses the organization of aligning with Russia. However, President Biden has no reason to be surprised considering his own reckless policy of selling out GCC interests in the Iran nuclear talks. America is not behaving with self-respect let alone with respect for the interests of itsContinue reading “Washington Shouldn’t be Surprised”

The Mediterranean Mirage

Hassan Nasrallah made a televised speech expressing cautious praise for the US proposal for a new border line between the exclusive economic zones of Israel and Lebanon in the Mediterranean sea. However, he notably did not explicitly accept the proposal. It is important to be cognizant that Lebanon or rather “Hezbollahstan” is an Iranian protectorateContinue reading “The Mediterranean Mirage”

Time for Coup de Grâce

There are women-led protests in cities throughout Iran with the people demanding the downfall of the mullahcracy. The regime is rotten to the core with little domestic support and now would be an opportune time to press for regime change. Unfortunately, that is not the policy of the Biden administration despite this being supremely inContinue reading “Time for Coup de Grâce”

The US and Israel are both Wrong on Iran Diplomacy

Washington still clings to the illusion that Tehran is interested in returning to the JCPOA and would ultimately do so. Jerusalem clings to a similar illusion in believing that it is possible to deter Iran in claiming that if Tehran was presented with a credible military deterrence that would threaten its survival (i.e. a no-flyContinue reading “The US and Israel are both Wrong on Iran Diplomacy”

Iran Plans Major Conventional War

What is the purpose of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons? There is more than one purpose: 1) Iran gains immunity from any future US invasion under any circumstances no matter how maliciously and atrociously Iran acts. 2) Iran can perpetrate acts of biological and chemical terrorism with complete impunity. 3) Iran would have the option ofContinue reading “Iran Plans Major Conventional War”

The Karish Maritime Negotiations Will Fail

Much hope has been pinned on the indirect Israeli-Lebanese negotiations about the demarcation of the maritime border line between the two nations as mediated by US diplomat Amos Hochstein. However, what is often conveniently forgotten is that the Lebanese state is now effectively Hezbollahstan, an Iranian protectorate which takes indirect orders from Tehran through theContinue reading “The Karish Maritime Negotiations Will Fail”

What Will Happen After the Destruction of the Iranian Nuclear Weapons Program?

A weekend interview in the Israeli daily Israel Hayom provided an insight into the perspectives of Israeli decision-makers. The interview was with one colonel T; the head of the IDF General Staff Strategy and Third-Circle Directorate. Ostensibly was the interview a sales pitch in order to persuade Israeli elected politicians to engage more in Iran-relatedContinue reading “What Will Happen After the Destruction of the Iranian Nuclear Weapons Program?”

Islam and the Totalitarian Virus

We have since the 1979 Iranian Islamist revolution seen a process where the world religion of Islam has increasingly been poisoned by the modern virus of totalitarianism. This has reached a point where some 50% of Muslims in many countries if given the opportunity would vote for Islamist political parties. Of course, it needs remindingContinue reading “Islam and the Totalitarian Virus”

On the Likelihood of Returning to the JCPOA

In the international community there is endless chatter about the presumed “relative likelihood” for the resumption of the JCPOA, according to many officials this “likelihood” varies by the month and the week. But is this really true? The fact is that the US government strongly wants an agreement, albeit not at any price. If TehranContinue reading “On the Likelihood of Returning to the JCPOA”

Fool me Once, Twice, Thrice

The international community, including Israel, refuses to learn from being serially deceived by Iran. It was in the interest of Khomeinist Iran to sign a nuclear agreement in 2015 with the P5+1 but what has changed since then are Elon Musk and Tesla with the rapid development of electric vehicles and with that the definitiveContinue reading “Fool me Once, Twice, Thrice”

Why the World Lost Interest in the Palestinian Issue

When will Median Jews immigrate to Israel in the tens of millions? This is only a matter of time. What is at stake is whether President Erdogan and the AKP will lose power in Turkey in the June 2023 elections and approximately 20 million Turkish Median Jews will be allowed to leave for Israel. ForContinue reading “Why the World Lost Interest in the Palestinian Issue”

The US Needs a Regime Change Policy on Iran

The US government lives in an illusion fed by the Iranian regime, namely that Iran somehow has an interest in a nuclear agreement with the P5+1. Contrary to US assessments and due to increasing progress in the development of electric vehicles, something which radically shrinks the window of opportunity for oil-based Mahdist neo-imperialism, Iran hasContinue reading “The US Needs a Regime Change Policy on Iran”

A Colossal Intelligence Failure

The Western intelligence community operates on the assumption that Iran is interested in returning to the JCPOA. Yet, no matter how many times this false belief has been discredited by persistent Iranian rejectionism, the Western intelligence community has clung to this patently false belief. If Iran was motivated primarily by economic imperatives then surely notContinue reading “A Colossal Intelligence Failure”

What are Tehran’s Interests Regarding the Karish Maritime Border Dispute?

Israel withdrew from Lebanon in the year 2000 but Tehran was not satisfied and so Iran/Hezbollah instructed the Lebanese government to manufacture the Sheba farm (Har Dov) fictitious border claims on lands in the northern Golan heights. Iran/Hezbollah did it again in 2022 when it instructed the Lebanese government to expand Lebanon’s claims for territorialContinue reading “What are Tehran’s Interests Regarding the Karish Maritime Border Dispute?”

What is the Iranian Game?

Usually, the Iranians and their proxies are playing their cards very carefully but more recently have the Iranians been using some unusual cards. The indirect negotiations with the United States have been brought to the brink with the intention likely being to eventually blame Washington for their ultimate failure. Simultaneously, Tehran’s Lebanese proxy Hezbollah threatenedContinue reading “What is the Iranian Game?”

Does Israel Want War with the Iranian Axis?

The view from Jerusalem regarding Iran’s nuclear intentions is rather befuddled. One day we hear that there is little risk that there will be a return to the JCPOA and the next day we hear that such return is imminent and these “assessments” are unwittingly cyclically repeated and so the master manipulators in Tehran mustContinue reading “Does Israel Want War with the Iranian Axis?”

Jerusalem and Tehran are Different Conceptual Universes

Israel and Iran are both looking forward to establishing a new regional order and neither side fears regional war. Nevertheless, the respective visions of the new regional order look completely different. Both sides envision establishing regional hegemony and removing each other from power. What is the reason for these radically different strategic conceptions? At theContinue reading “Jerusalem and Tehran are Different Conceptual Universes”

Hezbollah Suffers From Hubris

Hassan Nasrallah miscalculated in 2006 and he is miscalculating again and threatening war over the Karish gas field. Nasrallah and his Iranian sponsors are projecting their own misconceptions upon Israel and therefore assume that Israel is afraid of war with the Hezbollah-led Iranian axis. It is true that the Axis will be able to inflictContinue reading “Hezbollah Suffers From Hubris”

The US Needs a Deterrence Strategy Against Iran

There is no question that in the long term China poses the greatest strategic challenge to US interests worldwide, but in the short term, Iran is the greatest threat to the American homeland. The threat of Iran attacking America with biological weapons brought to America’s coastlines with Iranian submarines and deployed after America and IsraelContinue reading “The US Needs a Deterrence Strategy Against Iran”

Iran Poses a Greater Threat to the US than to Israel

America’s adversaries, including Iran, fear Republican administrations but certainly not Democratic administrations. Why is this so? Democratic administrations are more concerned about human rights while Republican administrations are more concerned about realpolitik. The real question is therefore whether the Iranian nuclear weapons program will be destroyed under the current Democratic administration or under the nextContinue reading “Iran Poses a Greater Threat to the US than to Israel”

The Khomeinists are Drunk on Mahdism

International Iran experts are consistently behind the curve in missing how Iran’s current rulers are influenced by Mahdism. What is behind the most recent threats by Hassan Nasrallah against Israel concerning the gas rigs in Israel’s exclusive economic zone? Nasrallah, like other leading Khomeinists, genuinely and strongly believe that the Hezbollah-led Iranian axis has theContinue reading “The Khomeinists are Drunk on Mahdism”

Iran has a Timeline

Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah has given a television interview in giving us some insight into how the Khomeinist elite currently conceive of messianic time. Khomeinism of course is unique in that it is the only form of Islamism that is apocalyptic. Nasrallah referred to some news reports from the US and Israeli media as indicationsContinue reading “Iran has a Timeline”

It’s in Washington’s Interest to Arm Riyadh

Saudi Arabia is the largest destination for US weapons exports with some 25% of all US defense exports going to the KSA. The Biden administration has however limited weapons exports to Riyadh, leaving the Saudis little choice but to purchase Chinese or Russian arms. This is an illogical policy which harms American jobs but furthermoreContinue reading “It’s in Washington’s Interest to Arm Riyadh”