Why Hezbollah Will Attack Israel

There are multiple reasons why Hezbollah and its allies in the Iranian axis in the Middle East will engage in a frontal assault on Israel after Israel and the US destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program once so-called “negotiations” have become completely exhausted. 1. The Iranian regime systematically states that this will happen if theContinue reading “Why Hezbollah Will Attack Israel”

America, Israel and Iran – A Reality Check

The reality that most do not want to acknowledge is that the Khomeinist leadership in Iran for their own reasons simply do not want to return to the JCPOA and they are not interested in any alternative agreement either. Any viable agreement would have to have bipartisan support and be acceptable to Israel and itsContinue reading “America, Israel and Iran – A Reality Check”

The Approaching Khomeinist Apocalypse

“I am decisely announcing to the whole world that if the world-devourers [the infidel powers] wish to stand against our religion, we will stand against the whole world and will not cease until the annihilation of all of them. Either we all become free, or we will go to the greater freedom, which is martyrdom.Continue reading “The Approaching Khomeinist Apocalypse”

The Danger of Preemptive Apocalypse

Tehran is currently moderately convinced that America and Israel will not dare to destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program. This is one of the reasons for its rejectionism in Vienna. Nevertheless, on Quds Day, Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah threatened that Iran might attack Israel directly if Israeli sabotage operations against the Iranian nuclear weapons programContinue reading “The Danger of Preemptive Apocalypse”

What is Wrong with the Iran Experts?

For over a year Iran experts and intelligence analysts around the world predicted that Iran would return to the JCPOA. Only now are Israeli officials coming to the realization that there won’t be an agreement. Even so they claim that chances of an agreement are “slim to none”. This reveals a complete misreading of theContinue reading “What is Wrong with the Iran Experts?”

Inside the Khomeinist Mind

The Iranian regime openly states that its overarching geostrategic goal is to prompt the reappearance of the Hidden Imam. Yet academic experts and intelligence analysts do tend to not pay attention to the religious dimension of Iranian decision making. Khomeinism is unique in the sense as being the only form of Islamism that is apocalypticContinue reading “Inside the Khomeinist Mind”

Washington Needs to Mend Ties with Riyadh

In his last and successful presidential campaign candidate Biden promised to treat Saudi Arabia like a “pariah”. It is unclear whether there was a geopolitical calculus of unrealistically realigning with Iran or if there was simply no geopolitical calculus at all behind the “pariah” statement. The latter seems likely since Saudi Arabia has certainly notContinue reading “Washington Needs to Mend Ties with Riyadh”

Khomeinism and Iranian Foreign Policy

Ayatollah Khomeini introduced a governing principle according to which Iranian national interests take precedence over sharia. This may seem surprising for an Islamist theocratic regime but can be observed in Iranian foreign policy for various parts of the world. Iran is completely silent on China’s Han colonization of Xinjiang and totalitarian policies of coerced assimilationContinue reading “Khomeinism and Iranian Foreign Policy”

Saudi Arabia is Indispensable to the New Regional Security Architecture

Iran is engaged in a concerted military expansion of its military assets in the Middle East, including missiles and drones. The State of Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia are the two most important pillars in the emerging new regional security architecture in the Middle East in particular and in Islamdom at large. Yet,Continue reading “Saudi Arabia is Indispensable to the New Regional Security Architecture”

Who is Right on Iran?

What are Iran’s intentions in Vienna? Non-Iranian intelligence agencies do not appear to know. Many weeks ago there was a flood of Israeli predictions of an imminent deal in Vienna but those fears have certainly not materialized and now even the Americans appear skeptical at the feasibility of a return to the JCPOA. I haveContinue reading “Who is Right on Iran?”

Why Russia does not Want to Change Course

Two decades ago, Vladimir Putin asked the West to allow Russia to become a member of NATO. This informal request was promptly rebuffed. What view does Russia take of the option of a US-led Asian defense alliance encircling China? For Russia this is primarily a question of lack of trust or to put it differently,Continue reading “Why Russia does not Want to Change Course”

Despite Bravado Iran Fears Israel

In February 2022 Israel deployed six Israeli drones to successfully destroy hundreds of Iranian drones. It was not until now that Iran retaliated, by striking a Mossad training facility in Erbil, the capital of the KRI (Kurdistan Region of Iraq) with missiles launched from Iranian territory. This obviously represents a drastic escalation but it isContinue reading “Despite Bravado Iran Fears Israel”

What is the US Stratagem on Islamdom?

The Biden administration is convinced that it will succeed in concluding a nuclear agreement with Iran (I am skeptical, I don’t think the Iranians are interested other than playing for time) but what are the plans of the Biden administration for the period after a conclusion of an agreement? America’s allies in Islamdom worry thatContinue reading “What is the US Stratagem on Islamdom?”

Normalization in Limbo

In the waning days of the Trump presidency was the world presented with a long list of Muslim countries waiting to normalize relations with Israel. However, once Trump had exited the White House, the process came to an abrupt end and no more Muslim countries have so far normalized relations with Israel during the BidenContinue reading “Normalization in Limbo”

Who Will Invade Whom?

Israel and Iran have completely different assessments as to the outcome of the future conflict between Israel and the so-called “Axis of Resistance” in the Levant. Iran assumes that massive barrages of rockets and missiles, many of them with chemical warheads, will inflict such heavy damage on the Israeli home front and cause such disorientationContinue reading “Who Will Invade Whom?”

The Aman Conceptzia

There is a dispute within Aman (Israeli military intelligence) regarding the intentions of Hezbollah. Is Hezbollah an Iranian proxy or is it a Lebanese patriotic organization? Is Hezbollah primarily interested in taking over Israel or taking over Lebanon? Of course, Hezbollah is run by one man, Hassan Nasrallah who makes all important decisions and althoughContinue reading “The Aman Conceptzia”

Master Tacticians, Strategic Lunatics

Iran is tactically brilliant in always seeing opportunities to expand its influence but it must be kept in mind that it is strategically lunatic in seeking world rule for the Hidden Imam as its ultimate strategic goal. Hezbollah’s intentions have been much debated within the Israeli intelligence community. What is Hezbollah? Hezbollah is a franchiseContinue reading “Master Tacticians, Strategic Lunatics”

Iran does not Want to Defer the Apocalypse

Due to crushing UN economic sanctions did Iran agree to the JCPOA in 2015. Iran’s economic situation was such that Iran’s leaders agreed to defer the timeline of the Khomeinist apocalypse. Today in contrast there is no such incentive as Iran is able to export oil to China, and Tehran rightly sees no economic benefitContinue reading “Iran does not Want to Defer the Apocalypse”

It’s Theology Stupid

The dominant paradigm in Middle Eastern studies is so-called “Postcolonialism”, a particular worldview which ironically privileges the perspectives of Islamist imperialists and Arabist colonialist over their indigenous victims. Postcolonialism is a form of Post-Marxism rooted in the doctrine of historical materialism which consistently plays down the influence of religion on politics. Yet the major civilizationsContinue reading “It’s Theology Stupid”

The Approaching Apocalypse

Khomeinism is different from all other forms of Islamism in that it constitutes an apocalyptic death cult. No other sect of Islamism believes that the end of days is close in time. However, Khomeinism has no fixed date for the apocalypse which is somewhat flexible in time. The general understanding is that eschatological time wasContinue reading “The Approaching Apocalypse”

Regionwide War and Global Terror

Iran does not fear America which it considers bruised by war and defeated by international Jihadism. In the Khomeinist Weltanschauung is Israel merely one of the tentacles of the “worldwide” American-Jewish “octopus” and so Tehran believes that Jerusalem cannot independently decide on destroying Iran’s nuclear weapons program without a green light from Washington. Therefore willContinue reading “Regionwide War and Global Terror”

Malley will not Change the Khomeinist Weltanschauung

The current academic paradigm in Middle Eastern studies assumes that dialogue and cooperation with Islamists is feasible, practical, realistic and desirable, in other words is appeasement of totalitarians the predominant theory of action. The ruling mullahs in Tehran understand well the mindset of useful infidels like Rob Malley and how to diplomatically exploit it. TheContinue reading “Malley will not Change the Khomeinist Weltanschauung”

The Biden Administration has a Communication Problem

Why is the Biden administration so widely perceived as “weak”? It began with Donald Trump labeling Joe Biden as “Sleepy Joe” in 2020. Republicans subsequently came to widely characterize Joe Biden as “weak”. Then came the disastrous collapse in Afghanistan and the chaotic American pullout which left hundreds of thousands behind who urgently needed toContinue reading “The Biden Administration has a Communication Problem”

The American Desperation

The JCPOA is inching towards collapse as the definite burial of the JCPOA is only days away. The US sanctions on the Iranian civilian nuclear program were lifted as a desperate goodwill gesture to the Khomeinist regime to show them that the American government is acting in good faith. America faces a dark future asContinue reading “The American Desperation”

Will Qatar’s Foreign Policy Shift After Regime Change in Iran?

Qatar’s foreign policy is based on both being aligned with the United States and the Islamist nexus (including Iran) despite the Qatari ruling class themselves not being Islamists and hence the Qatari policy of funding Islamists, Jihadists and terrorists everywhere. Similarly has Qatar maintained a peculiar policy of both being aligned with Hamas and maintainingContinue reading “Will Qatar’s Foreign Policy Shift After Regime Change in Iran?”

An Official Military War Blog

Israel needs an official war blog where the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) will publish a prepared, instant, highly accurate and factual blog post immediately after each military action. As a global propaganda war is waged against an Israel that does not believe in propaganda, Israel is best served by maximum transparency and Israel therefore needsContinue reading “An Official Military War Blog”

Conflict with Iran is Inevitable

There is no chance of reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran for the simple reason that Tehran is not interested in temporary sanctions relief as the next Republican administration would promptly reimpose sanctions. However, even if hypothetically a nuclear agreement was reached between Tehran and Washington, this would only defer the conflict. Iran is hell-bentContinue reading “Conflict with Iran is Inevitable”

Imperialist Plans of Expansionism

Iran, China and Russia are all neo-imperialist powers and they intend to geographically expand in accordance with their respective geostrategic master plans. America in contrast which is no empire and has no imperialist designs has no master plan across presidencies for its foreign policy since every new president in the 21st century has devised hisContinue reading “Imperialist Plans of Expansionism”

The US Must Clarify on Disengagement from Islamdom

The US suffers from a global credibility deficit. America’s adversaries no longer fear the United States and Middle Eastern allies of the United States are all convinced that the US intends to disengage from Islamdom, yet the US denies this. Iran calculates that in the event of the US and Israel destroying the Iranian nuclearContinue reading “The US Must Clarify on Disengagement from Islamdom”

Chemical Genocide

Iranian officials constantly repeat their intention to “annihilate Israel” and say that “Israel will be destroyed” if it attacks the Iranian nuclear weapons program. What does the regime mean? They are referring to the mass use of chemical weapons against Israeli cities. Iran is convinced that Israel and the United States are bluffing and thatContinue reading “Chemical Genocide”

Taking Iran Seriously

Iranian leaders continue to state that they will “destroy Israel” in the next war. What they mean is that they intend to implement the American military doctrine of Rapid Dominance (Shock and Awe). They intend to use their full rocket/missile/drone power, including a maximum number fitted with chemical weapons, to inflict massive physical and genocidalContinue reading “Taking Iran Seriously”

Iran’s List of Target Countries

The Houthi drone terrorist attack against Abu Dhabi as praised by Tehran illustrates that efforts to stay out of the US-led Iran coalition will not give anyone immunity from Iranian WMD mass terrorist attacks after Israel and the United States destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program. The UAE has made it a point to officiallyContinue reading “Iran’s List of Target Countries”

Manifest Unreason

Regional events point to Median Jewish mass Aliyah (immigration) to Israel becoming enabled already in the next few years. The Vienna talks are going nowhere as the Khomeinist regime assesses that a nuclear agreement with the United States is not in the nuclear and economic interest of Iran. At the same time does Iran notContinue reading “Manifest Unreason”

Does the PA Want a Palestinian State?

The Palestinian Authority (PA) has continued the Palestinian nationalist tradition of rejecting all peace offers for partition since 1937. The question needs therefore be asked whether the PA is at all interested in establishing a Palestinian state other than one in the place of Israel as called for in the 1964 PLO Palestinian National Covenant?Continue reading “Does the PA Want a Palestinian State?”

The US is Resigned to Coming Iranian WMD Attacks

The Biden administration’s decision to blame the former Trump administration for the impending collapse of the Vienna talks is indicative of a sense of resignation in the US administration over the prospects of Iranian WMD terrorist attacks against the American homeland. This is understandable, Iranian chemical and potentially biological weapons terrorist attacks against major AmericanContinue reading “The US is Resigned to Coming Iranian WMD Attacks”

The Danger of Messianism

The Jewish nation has a long history of failed messianisms, with usually profoundly tragic consequences for the Jews. The two-state illusion is different from the previous messianist movements in that the false messiah is not a person but an enemy government. The Palestinian Authority is not only Anti-Zionism incarnate but it is the most Anti-SemiticContinue reading “The Danger of Messianism”

Will Tehran use Biological Weapons?

While it is clear that Iran intends to use chemical weapons for mass terrorist attacks worldwide, on a vast scale following America’s and Israel’s joint destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons progam, the Khomeinist regime’s intentions to use biological weapons are more localized and may seem less obvious. Where and against whom will Tehran useContinue reading “Will Tehran use Biological Weapons?”

Iran’s Best Asset

The complexity involved in understanding the Khomeinist regime tends to lead to benevolent caricatures of the regime in severely underestimating the malevolence of Iran’s intentions. Intelligence agencies generally assume that Iran is rational without taking into account how irrational factors (Khomeinist theology, Anti-Semitism and Middle Eastern political culture) influence Iranian decision making processes. As theContinue reading “Iran’s Best Asset”

Apocalyptic Iran

Iran’s main designated adversaries are the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia. The notion of the United States as an implacable enemy of the Islamic Republic of Iran is based on Islamist Anti-Semitic conspiracy theory according to which the US is the center of the “Jewish conspiracy” to destroy Islam. The notion of Jews andContinue reading “Apocalyptic Iran”

Neutrality on Iran is in no One’s Interest

The JCPOA is brain-dead and it is only a matter of weeks until it will be fully dead and buried. The reason is that Iran correctly assesses that returning to compliance with the JCPOA and/or reaching a nuclear agreement with the United States are not conducive to the nuclear and economic interests of the KhomeinistContinue reading “Neutrality on Iran is in no One’s Interest”

Will Iran Launch a Surprise Assault?

Iran is well aware that it will be attacked but due to its belief in divine patronage does Tehran not believe that any of the insurrections will succeed after the US-led international coalition imposes a no-fly zone over Iran and provides air support to armed rebellions throughout the country. However, this does not mean thatContinue reading “Will Iran Launch a Surprise Assault?”

The Art of Building Deterrence

One year of failed appeasement policy has completely destroyed US deterrence against Iran. The notion that this can be repaired by issuing a few threats is preposterous. Public issuance of threatening statements has its place in a comprehensive deterrence posture but are on their own entirely insufficient in rebuilding America’s deterrence against Iran. Iran shouldContinue reading “The Art of Building Deterrence”

The Islamist Nexus

Is there an emerging transdenominational Islamist nexus in the Middle East? There are significant tactical differences between different Islamist movements and Sunni Islamists and Shia Islamists disagree as to whether Sunnis of Shias should rule the worldwide Islamist theocracy that they believe is inevitable due to ostensibly being divinely decreed. Iran and Turkey have closeContinue reading “The Islamist Nexus”

Israel Underestimates Iranian Threat

Israel has a track record of underestimating the nefariousness of Iran’s intentions. Israeli intelligence until recently believed that Tehran was interested in a nuclear agreement with the United States. Until recently did senior Israeli military experts believe that Iran would not order Hezbollah to launch a frontal attack against Israeli cities with 150 000 rocketsContinue reading “Israel Underestimates Iranian Threat”

The Khomeinist Regime is Becoming Nervous

The Khomeinist regime makes increasingly extreme threats against Israel. Why is this so? The regime is no doubt becoming increasingly nervous about the imposition of an international no-fly zone over Iran that would provide air support to armed rebellions throughout the country and very likely lead to the downfall of the regime. The emerging coalitionContinue reading “The Khomeinist Regime is Becoming Nervous”

How Iran Views the US-Israel Relationship

The basic prism through which the Iranian regime views international politics and domestic politics in many countries is that of the ostensible global “Jewish conspiracy” to destroy Islam. Tehran believes that the infamous forgery of the “Protocols of the Elders of Zion” is a genuine document outlining the Zionist conspiracy to control the world. WhenContinue reading “How Iran Views the US-Israel Relationship”

Iran, Syria and Lebanon Face Checkmate with Open Eyes

Israel is preparing to destroy Hezbollah and its state sponsors in the upcoming war in the northern Levant after Israel and America eliminate the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Iran is sabotaging the Vienna process up until the very end. Once the hopeless post-JCPOA “negotiations” as envisioned by the pro-Islamist notorious appeaser Rob Malley end, aContinue reading “Iran, Syria and Lebanon Face Checkmate with Open Eyes”

Establishing Global Theocratic Rule of the Hidden Imam

While this may seem strange is the theocratic establishment of the “global rule of the Hidden Imam” an official geostrategic goal of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Iranian regime is seriously convinced that the Iranian Islamist revolution constitutes an eschatological process that will culminate in Iranian world rule. This may seem detached from reality,Continue reading “Establishing Global Theocratic Rule of the Hidden Imam”

Will Tehran Unleash Hezbollah?

There are reportedly differing assessments in Israeli military intelligence (Aman) as to whether Hezbollah will attack Israel in response to Israel and America destroying the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Why is this so? Iranian officials insist that they will “destroy Israel” in response to the destruction of Iran’s nuclear weapons program. This of course isContinue reading “Will Tehran Unleash Hezbollah?”

Iran is a Terrorist State

Iran is the largest state sponsor of terrorism in the world. Supporting and orchestrating terrorism is part of the geostrategy of the Islamic Republic of Iran worldwide. It should thus not surprise anyone that Iran plans mass terrorist attacks with chemical weapons against major cities around the world in revenge for America and Israel destroyingContinue reading “Iran is a Terrorist State”