Iran’s Strategic Calculus

The Khomeinist regime in Tehran has concluded that restoring the JCPOA is not an Iranian national interest and has therefore opted for accelerating its nuclear weapons program. How does the regime reason?

Tehran reasons that an agreement on resumption of the JCPOA would in any case be abrogated in 4 or 8 years time by the next Republican president in the US and therefore resuming the JCPOA is not worthwhile as it would temporarily freeze aspects of Iran’s nuclear weapons program without any gain for the regime. Tehran reasons that European investors, importers and exporters would draw the same conclusion regarding the next Republican administration and a Republican reinstatement of the sanctions regime and that a resumption of the JCPOA would therefore not advance Iran’s economic ties with Europe.

The regime hence decided to put all eggs in one basket and align itself economically with Washington’s rival in Beijing. As usual is Tehran strategically ahead of Jerusalem and Washington, neither of which realized that the strategic shift to the east was behind Iran’s intransigence in the nuclear negotiations in Vienna. Tehran accurately early deciphered that the Biden administration was literally desperate for an agreement on the resumption of the JCPOA. The US pro-Islamist Iran envoy Robert Malley has repeatedly made increasingly desperate concessions to the regime, yet to no avail.

Iran however seems genuinely surprised that President Biden rightly decided that the US (and not Israel) would take on the task of strategically degrading Iran’s nuclear weapons program once Jerusalem and Washington determine that the time is up due to the continual rapid advancement of Iran’s nuclear weapon’s program. This is because unreciprocated political concessions in the Middle East are regarded as signs of weakness as opposed to the idea that it signals a will to reconcile. Iran on its part of course has no intention of reconciling with the United States which it continues to brand as “the Great Satan”.

China has no interest in facilitating nuclear proliferation but as most of the international community regards Iran’s genocidal nuclear ambitions as an Israeli problem that it is up to the Israelis to counter and resolve. The real mystery here are the Europeans who would essentially become subservient to Iran as the new superpower were Iran to conquer the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states and their gargantuan oil resources. Why do not European NATO powers establish huge military bases in the Persian Gulf which would surely be essential as long as the Europeans have not phased out their consumption of oil in the transportation sector? The answer is that the Europeans rely on Israel to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons and they rely on the US to pay for defending the GCC, effectively on behalf of Europe without Europe paying its share. The US is energy independent and Europe is in contrast not.

The so called international community fears Iranian mass terrorism, including potentially with chemical, biological and radiological weapons of mass destruction and hence the emergence of the JCPOA in 2015 and the widespread notion in the international community that Iran’s genocidal nuclear ambition is essentially “a Jewish problem” that it is up to Israel to resolve on its own. The international community doesn’t want to get in the line of fire if Tehran were to lash out globally subsequent to an Israeli or American aerial strategic degradation of Tehran’s nuclear weapons program. The JCPOA came about as an international insurance policy against the threat of Iranian mass terrorism globally. It is noteworthy that the signatory powers to the JCPOA aside from Tehran officially and sincerely do not oppose Israeli threats to strategically degrade Iran’s nuclear weapons program. 

It is time that Jerusalem internalizes that it is all realpolitik and that Europe in its current conception of Middle Eastern geopolitics has no geostrategic intention of drawing essential strategic lessons from the Holocaust. The US should demand from its European NATO partners that they establish themselves militarily in the Persian Gulf on a significant scale and also compensate the US for the cost of US bases there since the US is essentially defending GCC oil supplies to Europe.

The European Union (including importantly Germany) should end its shameful abdication of responsibility in the Persian Gulf and integrate strategic conclusions from the Holocaust in the EU external policy on the Anti-Semitic, Holocaust-denying, genocide-promoting and terrorism-promoting Jihadist-Islamist regime in Tehran. The EU should significantly sanction Iran for preventing Iranian Rabbinic Jews from immigrating to Israel in not letting them legally leave Iran and for barbarically oppressing its religious minorities including Christians, anti-Islamist Sufis, Baha’is, Median Jews (Yarsanis, Alevis, Yezidis and Zoroastrians), Rabbinic Jews, Mandaeans and even Sunni Muslims who are prevented from building mosques in Tehran.

Published by Daniella Bartfeld

Daniella Bartfeld is the founding director of the Aliyah Organization

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