No One will Help Assad

President Bashar al-Assad of Syria has no friends in the international community and very few allies and as it turns out even the allies are not reliable. 

As Iranian uranium enrichment progresses to a critical level may Israel launch air strikes against the Iranian nuclear weapons program and Iran in turn will order Hezbollah to unleash massive missile barrages against Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities. Israel will have little choice but to order the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) to launch a war in close cooperation with the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) of the AANES (Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria) to liberate Syria and Lebanon and root out the forces of Khomeinism and Ba’athism, establish a Christian Aramean state as the successor state of Lebanon; Israel will annex the Median Jewish (Alawite and Druze) regions of Syria and Lebanon and the new AANES-led Syria will annex the remainder of Lebanon. 

While it is true that the former Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran Ruhollah Khomeini formally recognized both Alevis and Alawites as Twelver Shias is there no doubt that the ruling clerical elite of Iran have had to recognize that Khomeini was wrong about these two denominations of core Median Judaism. To what extent is the ideologially Anti-Semitic Islamic Republic of Iran willing to stand up for Assad’s Crypto-Jewish regime? This is the real question and the answer is most likely to a much lesser extent than before. Is Tehran ready to sacrifice blood and treasure for what it now clearly recognizes is a Jewish government? It is one thing using Damascus for Tehran’s own purposes, yet it is quite another for Tehran to sacrifice its own resources on behalf of a Jewish government. 

Russia is primarily interested in its air base and its naval base in the Alawite region and in order to keep them after Israel annexes the Alawite region is it absolutely vital for Russia to keep its soldiers in the barracks and its planes on the ground during the war and certainly to to not attack the SDF. This is quite a sensitive diplomatic matter.

While Iraq could intervene militarily against Israel as it did in 1948, 1967 and 1973 would that hardly make much of a military difference. Iraq is not the great military power it once was and is very highly unlikely to intervene on behalf of a Jewish government, even one at war with Israel.

Lebanon will not be in a position to assist Assad and it is questionable if it will even fight Israel. While the war in Syria is avoidable through a diplomatic agreement that would partition Syria between AANES and Israel – is war entirely unavoidable in Lebanon due to the formidable presence and extensive political power of Hezbollah and this means that LAF (Lebanese Armed Forces) has no way of assisting Assad even if they wanted to.

While the Crypto-Islamist AKP regime is an enemy of the AANES and the SDF, is the Anti-Semitic AKP regime also an enemy of the Crypto-Jewish Assad regime and Assad cannot expect any help from Istanbul. Even if Erdogan wanted to conquer NES (North and East Syria) would he certainly be constrained by the pro-Israel Sabbatean (“Dönmeh”) controlled Derin Devlet. 

The recent phone call between King Abdullah of Jordan and President Bashar al-Assad of Syria was the first in a decade and was a measure of the desperation in Damascus in seeking military allies. Amman’s ministry of foreign affairs – no doubt upon request from Damascus – affirmed its official support for Syria’s territorial integrity, sovereignty and right to self-determination but the appeal for a military pact against Israel was no doubt left unheeded.

Will Assad draw the only logical conclusion and agree to a diplomatic solution, a peaceful partition of Syria between AANES and Israel with internationally signed legal guarantees for the senior echelons of the Syrian administration? A diplomatic process of persuasion may indeed reach that outcome. France, which enjoys good relations with both sides, should undertake a diplomatic initiative to bring Israeli and Syrian leaders together in a discreet neutral location such as Switzerland so as to build mutual confidence towards reaching a diplomatic partition agreement. A war between the two Jewish governments would be absolutely senseless and devastating for Syria and there is no valid logical reason in the world why a diplomatic accommodation could not be reached. 

In the end will Israel be transformed into Assad’s best and only friend.

Published by Daniella Bartfeld

Daniella Bartfeld is the founding director of the Aliyah Organization.

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