A Palestinian state cannot be established through an end-of-claims final status agreement between Israel and the PLO for the simple reason that there is a consensus in Palestinian society never to resolve the issue of descendants of ex-refugees other than by inundating Israel with millions of Anti-Zionists that would make sure that Israel is replaced by a Palestinian so-called “one-state solution” thus turning the much touted so-called “two-state solution” into a transitional fiction.
The Jewish state of course would not agree to commit suicide so this scenario will never materialize. The international community in its official commitment to a “two-state solution” has underestimated the unanimous Palestinian commitment to end the Jewish state by demographic means. While officially the PLO claims to support a “two-state solution”, its stated vision is something entirely different, namely a “one-state solution” as it views a “two-state solution” as a transitional phase towards a “one-state solution”. This is a fantasy, yet one that is particularly powerful in the minds of Palestinians in the region and around the world.
Israel’s only options for establishing a Palestinian state are either 1) to capitulate to all official Palestinian demands excepting those on the question of descendants of ex-refugees or 2) to unilaterally withdraw and determine Israel’s own borders. In either case would it not end the conflict and it would not the resolve the question of Gaza which would continue to be controlled by the Hamas Jihadist terrorist organization which would continue to launch rockets and missiles against civilian Israel. The Palestinian authority is weak and Hamas would in all likelihood take over all areas in Judea and Samaria from which Israel has withdrawn. This means that Judea and Samaria would become a second Gaza from which Jihadist terrorist organizations would launch rockets and missiles against civilian Israeli cities.
Since the conflict would not end – would it continue. The demand of the Jihadist terrorists who would launch rockets and missiles against civilian Israeli cities from Judea and Samaria would be that Israel accepts and implements the so-called “right of return” to Israel for millions of Anti-Zionist descendants of ex-refugees. The launching of rockets and missiles against Israeli cities would make life impossible in Israel and Israel would have no choice but to reassert full military control over the entire Judea and Samaria. So what would be the point of withdrawing from Judea and Samaria if it does not lead to peace but quite the opposite?
The conflation of Palestinian statehood with peace is widespread in the international community when in fact there is no reason to expect a Palestinian state in Judea and Samaria to be peaceful. Even were the PLO to remain in control is a Palestinian state highly likely to turn into yet another Iranian rocket base with the sole purpose of destroying the Jewish state by demographic means. It should also be expected that the Palestinian state – even if it had agreed to demilitarization – would import hundreds of thousands of soldiers from Anti-Zionist countries such as Iran, Pakistan and Malaysia which would prepare to launch a on overwhelming frontal assault on Israel’s main metropolitan regions from the high ground of Judea and Samaria overlooking those predominantly metropolitan regions of Israel.
Imagine if there were some 500 000 foreign troops stationed in Judea and Samaria preparing to cut Israel in half and reach the Mediterranean Sea north of the Tel Aviv metropolitan area. Israel would be defeated because there is no way that Israel could defend itself from a surprise attack by such a formidable force in Judea and Samaria since it would be impossible to call up the reserves in time. Israel would have to launch a preemptive attack to destroy those forces before they become able to destroy Israel. So much for the promise of peace as inherent to the so-called “two-state solution”. How could Israel prevent Turkey from establishing a naval base in Gaza when Israel longer controls the sea outside of the Gaza region? How could Israel prevent Iran from establishing an airbase in the Judean desert on the outskirts of Jerusalem when Israel no longer controls the airspace over Judea and Samaria? The answer is again only by pre-emptive war.
All scenarios for the establishment of a Palestinian state leads to a dramatic worsening of the conflict and the introduction of major Anti-Zionist countries in Asia into the conflict. There is every expectation that the Palestinian side will do everything possible to reverse the Palestinian displacement of 1947-49 and the only means for achieving that is to militarily defeat Israel. The scenarios that will materialize are not happy ones since the Palestinian commitment to end the Jewish state and displace the Jews of Israel is near unanimous among the Palestinian public outside of Israel.
A Palestinian state without ending the conflict would only drastically worsen the conflict which currently is well-managed. Palestinians refer to an end-of-claims final status agreements as “the conspiracy to liquidate the Palestinian issue”. Establishing a Palestinian state through an end-of-claims final status agreement is impossible as explained above. Even were the PLO to change negotiation strategy entirely and agree to end-of-claims what guarantees are there that the above-mentioned military scenarios would not materialize? Israel would have no choice but to reassert full military control over Judea and Samaria so what is the point for Israel of all this talk about a so-called “two-state solution” and a Palestinian state if it does not lead to peace?
The point with a Palestinian state from a Palestinian perspective is rather to create a platform for undoing the Jewish state. There is complete consensus on this matter in Palestinian society and dissenting voices are not allowed. While opinion polls indicate relatively wide-spread support for a so-called “two-state solution” among the Palestinian public in Judea and Samaria, this is always combined with an unequivocal demand for ending the Jewish state by implementing the so-called “right of return” in thus ending Israel. This is the Palestinian strategy no less and there is complete and utter consensus on this matter. Why would any reasonable person doubt that the Fatah (Arabic for “conquest”) party and the so-called “Palestine Liberation Organization” which was founded to destroy the Jewish state would not implement their own strategy which is restated every day in the Palestinian mass media? Not that they would have a chance to do so because Hamas would in all probability take over Judea and Samaria just as it took over Gaza. Israel would literally have no choice but to reassert full military control over the entire Judea and Samaria so as to not make Israel impossible to live in and to prevent foreign troops from amassing in the mountain range of Judea and Samaria.
What would happen once Israel had reasserted full control over the entire Judea and Samaria? Israel would have to stay there forever and ever since once it withdraws the dystopian scenarios would materialize once more. So what would be the point of withdrawing and even evacuating indigenous Jewish communities from Judea and Samaria? None whatsoever of course. Israel would be back to square one. Historical experience shows that unrealistic utopian experiments lead to dystopia and this is certainly true in this case as well.