The Changing Israeli Equation in US Domestic Politics

Israel is losing support among Democratic voters, including among young assimilating Jews, a large minority of whom are who are turning Anti-Zionist. The Jewish electorate is progressively disappearing to assimilation and the only American Jews who will remain Jewish are Orthodox American Jews and American Jews in Israel. Israel is also losing much ground among young Evangelicals and among young Republicans generally.

What will be the consequences for bipartisan support for Israel and the Israeli-American special relationship? There will be major Median Jewish Aliyah, including from Turkey although it is not certain when the latter will happen as it depends on whether the Turkish opposition will win the June 2023 presidential and parliamentary elections. Once Median Jewish Aliyah (immigration) has reached the threshold of 10 million immigrants will Israel redeem and enfranchise the entire Judea and Samaria. The Jordanian monarchy will subsequently be more than happy to annex Gaza and thus end the Palestinian problem and hence eliminate the main threat to Jordanian domestic stability. 

What are the political implications? Will this be internationally recognized? This is a big question mark. West Sahara was once widely internationally recognized but many nations later withdrew international recognition. The same thing is likely to eventually happen with Judea/Samaria and Gaza as the world will realize that the so-called “two-state solution” is completely outdated and irrelevant indeed. One consequence of the Israeli and Jordanian enfranchisement is that there will no longer be much international coverage of Palestinian news and the Palestinian question will be marginalized to demanding “the right of return” which will become as relevant as “the right of return” of the Sudeten Germans. With the end of the “occupation” and the “blockade” will public motivation in the West for the BDS movement largely dissipate. 

Median Jewish mass Aliyah will thus end the legitimate motivations for Anti-Israel animus while the Anti-Semitic motivations obviously will remain. Israel is likely to cease to be a contentious issue in the United States and a Republican administration is highly likely to recognize Judea and Samaria as Israeli. Israel shares democratic and liberal values with the United States and thus prefers the US as an ally over China. The only thing that could bring about an Israeli realignment with China would be in the extremely unlikely event that an Anti-Zionist or Anti-Semite were to be elected president of the United States and abandon Israel. The Israeli-American special relationship will certainly not rupture on Israel’s initiative and thus Israeli-American relations will remain strong and strengthen for the foreseeable future. There is no reason to think that America and Israel will ever cease to be allies. The Israeli-American special relationship will endure and strengthen.

Published by Daniella Bartfeld

Daniella Bartfeld is the founding director of the Aliyah Organization.

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