The emerging reality in Ukraine is becoming increasingly clear. Russia is winning tactically in some locations in Ukraine but is overall suffering strategic defeat. The Ukrainian military is not only highly motivated but has turned out extremely competent and skilled. The Russian conscripts in contrast lack motivation for a war that they neither support nor understand. Are the turn of events mainly due to Ukrainian competence or Russian incompetence? Both of course, but Russia’s project of imperialist conquest of the entire Europe looks increasingly inviable. While Russia has made some local progress in the conquest of Ukraine, particularly in the south, the Russian military machine overall remains stuck in a Ukrainian quagmire. If Russia is incapable of conquering Ukraine, it obviously cannot conquer the rest of Europe either and it is very likely unable to defend Siberia from future Chinese aggression. The sobering up about the limits of Russian military power may quite possibly open up new diplomatic possibilities.
Russia is desperate about the Chinese threat against Siberia and that is why Russia saw no alternative to conquering Europe to gain an economic base for building a much larger military that could match China’s future military might. However, the humiliating strategic defeat that Russia is suffering in Ukraine opens the door not only to a diplomatic resolution to the conflict in Ukraine but also to reconciliation between the United States and the Russian Federation and a new Asian defense alliance that would encircle China and which would include both Russia and America.