On the Likelihood of Returning to the JCPOA

In the international community there is endless chatter about the presumed “relative likelihood” for the resumption of the JCPOA, according to many officials this “likelihood” varies by the month and the week. But is this really true? The fact is that the US government strongly wants an agreement, albeit not at any price. If Tehran wants an agreement, then it is 100% certain there will also be an agreement. If on the other hand Tehran does not not want an agreement then there is zero chance that there will be an agreement. The reality is that Elon Musk and Tesla irreversibly changed the Mahdist timeline for nuclear breakout and regional conquest and thus Tehran is no longer interested in a nuclear agreement. The question of whether there will be a nuclear agreement is thus not a question of calculating likelihood, it is absolutely black and white, either you mistakenly believe that Iran wants a nuclear agreement and that there will be one or you correctly assess that Iran is not interested in a nuclear agreement and that there won’t be any. Calculating “relative likelihood” for the return to the JCPOA is therefore absolute nonsense.