On the Need for a Counter-Strategy to Iranian Mahdism

There is a profound strategic problem with respect to how Washington and Jerusalem deal with Tehran. Iran is no less motivated by Mahdism in its neo-imperialist strategy than the Soviet Union was motivated by Marxism-Leninism in its own imperialist strategy. Yet Washington and Jerusalem in their respective public rhetoric do not give any hint ofContinue reading “On the Need for a Counter-Strategy to Iranian Mahdism”

The Mediterranean Mirage

Hassan Nasrallah made a televised speech expressing cautious praise for the US proposal for a new border line between the exclusive economic zones of Israel and Lebanon in the Mediterranean sea. However, he notably did not explicitly accept the proposal. It is important to be cognizant that Lebanon or rather “Hezbollahstan” is an Iranian protectorateContinue reading “The Mediterranean Mirage”

The US and Israel are both Wrong on Iran Diplomacy

Washington still clings to the illusion that Tehran is interested in returning to the JCPOA and would ultimately do so. Jerusalem clings to a similar illusion in believing that it is possible to deter Iran in claiming that if Tehran was presented with a credible military deterrence that would threaten its survival (i.e. a no-flyContinue reading “The US and Israel are both Wrong on Iran Diplomacy”

Iran Plans Major Conventional War

What is the purpose of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons? There is more than one purpose: 1) Iran gains immunity from any future US invasion under any circumstances no matter how maliciously and atrociously Iran acts. 2) Iran can perpetrate acts of biological and chemical terrorism with complete impunity. 3) Iran would have the option ofContinue reading “Iran Plans Major Conventional War”

What Will Happen After the Destruction of the Iranian Nuclear Weapons Program?

A weekend interview in the Israeli daily Israel Hayom provided an insight into the perspectives of Israeli decision-makers. The interview was with one colonel T; the head of the IDF General Staff Strategy and Third-Circle Directorate. Ostensibly was the interview a sales pitch in order to persuade Israeli elected politicians to engage more in Iran-relatedContinue reading “What Will Happen After the Destruction of the Iranian Nuclear Weapons Program?”

On the Likelihood of Returning to the JCPOA

In the international community there is endless chatter about the presumed “relative likelihood” for the resumption of the JCPOA, according to many officials this “likelihood” varies by the month and the week. But is this really true? The fact is that the US government strongly wants an agreement, albeit not at any price. If TehranContinue reading “On the Likelihood of Returning to the JCPOA”

Fool me Once, Twice, Thrice

The international community, including Israel, refuses to learn from being serially deceived by Iran. It was in the interest of Khomeinist Iran to sign a nuclear agreement in 2015 with the P5+1 but what has changed since then are Elon Musk and Tesla with the rapid development of electric vehicles and with that the definitiveContinue reading “Fool me Once, Twice, Thrice”

The US Needs a Regime Change Policy on Iran

The US government lives in an illusion fed by the Iranian regime, namely that Iran somehow has an interest in a nuclear agreement with the P5+1. Contrary to US assessments and due to increasing progress in the development of electric vehicles, something which radically shrinks the window of opportunity for oil-based Mahdist neo-imperialism, Iran hasContinue reading “The US Needs a Regime Change Policy on Iran”

A Colossal Intelligence Failure

The Western intelligence community operates on the assumption that Iran is interested in returning to the JCPOA. Yet, no matter how many times this false belief has been discredited by persistent Iranian rejectionism, the Western intelligence community has clung to this patently false belief. If Iran was motivated primarily by economic imperatives then surely notContinue reading “A Colossal Intelligence Failure”

Jerusalem and Tehran are Different Conceptual Universes

Israel and Iran are both looking forward to establishing a new regional order and neither side fears regional war. Nevertheless, the respective visions of the new regional order look completely different. Both sides envision establishing regional hegemony and removing each other from power. What is the reason for these radically different strategic conceptions? At theContinue reading “Jerusalem and Tehran are Different Conceptual Universes”

Hezbollah Suffers From Hubris

Hassan Nasrallah miscalculated in 2006 and he is miscalculating again and threatening war over the Karish gas field. Nasrallah and his Iranian sponsors are projecting their own misconceptions upon Israel and therefore assume that Israel is afraid of war with the Hezbollah-led Iranian axis. It is true that the Axis will be able to inflictContinue reading “Hezbollah Suffers From Hubris”

The Khomeinists are Drunk on Mahdism

International Iran experts are consistently behind the curve in missing how Iran’s current rulers are influenced by Mahdism. What is behind the most recent threats by Hassan Nasrallah against Israel concerning the gas rigs in Israel’s exclusive economic zone? Nasrallah, like other leading Khomeinists, genuinely and strongly believe that the Hezbollah-led Iranian axis has theContinue reading “The Khomeinists are Drunk on Mahdism”