The US and Israel are both Wrong on Iran Diplomacy

Washington still clings to the illusion that Tehran is interested in returning to the JCPOA and would ultimately do so. Jerusalem clings to a similar illusion in believing that it is possible to deter Iran in claiming that if Tehran was presented with a credible military deterrence that would threaten its survival (i.e. a no-flyContinue reading “The US and Israel are both Wrong on Iran Diplomacy”

Iran Plans Major Conventional War

What is the purpose of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons? There is more than one purpose: 1) Iran gains immunity from any future US invasion under any circumstances no matter how maliciously and atrociously Iran acts. 2) Iran can perpetrate acts of biological and chemical terrorism with complete impunity. 3) Iran would have the option ofContinue reading “Iran Plans Major Conventional War”

Putin Bluffs Badly

Russian President Vladimir Putin claims that he is not bluffing and that he is considering attacking NATO with nuclear weapons. Once more he is trying to use his former image in the West as an ostensible “madman”. What does he come out proving? Yes, he is desperate and he is running out of options andContinue reading “Putin Bluffs Badly”

What Will Happen After the Destruction of the Iranian Nuclear Weapons Program?

A weekend interview in the Israeli daily Israel Hayom provided an insight into the perspectives of Israeli decision-makers. The interview was with one colonel T; the head of the IDF General Staff Strategy and Third-Circle Directorate. Ostensibly was the interview a sales pitch in order to persuade Israeli elected politicians to engage more in Iran-relatedContinue reading “What Will Happen After the Destruction of the Iranian Nuclear Weapons Program?”

On the Likelihood of Returning to the JCPOA

In the international community there is endless chatter about the presumed “relative likelihood” for the resumption of the JCPOA, according to many officials this “likelihood” varies by the month and the week. But is this really true? The fact is that the US government strongly wants an agreement, albeit not at any price. If TehranContinue reading “On the Likelihood of Returning to the JCPOA”

Fool me Once, Twice, Thrice

The international community, including Israel, refuses to learn from being serially deceived by Iran. It was in the interest of Khomeinist Iran to sign a nuclear agreement in 2015 with the P5+1 but what has changed since then are Elon Musk and Tesla with the rapid development of electric vehicles and with that the definitiveContinue reading “Fool me Once, Twice, Thrice”

The US Needs a Regime Change Policy on Iran

The US government lives in an illusion fed by the Iranian regime, namely that Iran somehow has an interest in a nuclear agreement with the P5+1. Contrary to US assessments and due to increasing progress in the development of electric vehicles, something which radically shrinks the window of opportunity for oil-based Mahdist neo-imperialism, Iran hasContinue reading “The US Needs a Regime Change Policy on Iran”

A Colossal Intelligence Failure

The Western intelligence community operates on the assumption that Iran is interested in returning to the JCPOA. Yet, no matter how many times this false belief has been discredited by persistent Iranian rejectionism, the Western intelligence community has clung to this patently false belief. If Iran was motivated primarily by economic imperatives then surely notContinue reading “A Colossal Intelligence Failure”

What are Tehran’s Interests Regarding the Karish Maritime Border Dispute?

Israel withdrew from Lebanon in the year 2000 but Tehran was not satisfied and so Iran/Hezbollah instructed the Lebanese government to manufacture the Sheba farm (Har Dov) fictitious border claims on lands in the northern Golan heights. Iran/Hezbollah did it again in 2022 when it instructed the Lebanese government to expand Lebanon’s claims for territorialContinue reading “What are Tehran’s Interests Regarding the Karish Maritime Border Dispute?”

Does Israel Want War with the Iranian Axis?

The view from Jerusalem regarding Iran’s nuclear intentions is rather befuddled. One day we hear that there is little risk that there will be a return to the JCPOA and the next day we hear that such return is imminent and these “assessments” are unwittingly cyclically repeated and so the master manipulators in Tehran mustContinue reading “Does Israel Want War with the Iranian Axis?”

Jerusalem and Tehran are Different Conceptual Universes

Israel and Iran are both looking forward to establishing a new regional order and neither side fears regional war. Nevertheless, the respective visions of the new regional order look completely different. Both sides envision establishing regional hegemony and removing each other from power. What is the reason for these radically different strategic conceptions? At theContinue reading “Jerusalem and Tehran are Different Conceptual Universes”

The US Needs a Deterrence Strategy Against Iran

There is no question that in the long term China poses the greatest strategic challenge to US interests worldwide, but in the short term, Iran is the greatest threat to the American homeland. The threat of Iran attacking America with biological weapons brought to America’s coastlines with Iranian submarines and deployed after America and IsraelContinue reading “The US Needs a Deterrence Strategy Against Iran”

Iran Poses a Greater Threat to the US than to Israel

America’s adversaries, including Iran, fear Republican administrations but certainly not Democratic administrations. Why is this so? Democratic administrations are more concerned about human rights while Republican administrations are more concerned about realpolitik. The real question is therefore whether the Iranian nuclear weapons program will be destroyed under the current Democratic administration or under the nextContinue reading “Iran Poses a Greater Threat to the US than to Israel”

Iran has a Timeline

Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah has given a television interview in giving us some insight into how the Khomeinist elite currently conceive of messianic time. Khomeinism of course is unique in that it is the only form of Islamism that is apocalyptic. Nasrallah referred to some news reports from the US and Israeli media as indicationsContinue reading “Iran has a Timeline”

The Success of Russian Psychological Warfare

Russia is currently suffering tactical military defeat on the battlefield in Ukraine and is exhausting its military assets. Yet the outcome is still a stalemate and a military deadlock on the battlefield. However, the Russians are prevailing on the strategic level because they are succeeding in their psychological warfare against NATO and the United States.Continue reading “The Success of Russian Psychological Warfare”

Nothing Except Military Action Will Stop Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program

There was a disagreement during the meeting in Israel between President Biden and Prime Minister Lapid on the question of Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Prime Minister Lapid insisted that only deterrence would persuade Iran to sign a nuclear agreement while President Biden insisted that diplomacy was still the best way forward. Both are wrong sinceContinue reading “Nothing Except Military Action Will Stop Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program”

Iran’s Window of Opportunity

Iranian senior officials openly and publicly state that their overarching strategy is to prompt the reappearance of the Hidden Imam in Mecca leading to global Khomeinist theocratic rule. One crucial factor which is closing the window on Iranian eschatological imperialism is however the advent of electric vehicles. The electric vehicle industry has changed much sinceContinue reading “Iran’s Window of Opportunity”

The Saudis are No Suckers

The US-Saudi relationship was always based on oil in return for security. There were those Americans who lately mistakenly presumed that the United States no longer needed Saudi Arabia. This is wrong. The US will need the KSA as a staging ground for any military action against Iran after Tehran lashes out against the outsideContinue reading “The Saudis are No Suckers”

The Iranians Know What They Want

After the failed talks in Doha about returning to the JCPOA are American diplomats bitterly complaining that the Iranians are seemingly unable to decide whether to resume or bury the JCPOA. This is a complete and utter misunderstanding of the Iranian position which is to have their cake and eat it too. Iran wants continuedContinue reading “The Iranians Know What They Want”

The US Must Learn From Ukraine War How to Prevent War in the Middle East

Why are Finland and Sweden suddenly applying for membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization? They understand the simple truth that the Russian invasion of Ukraine would never have occurred had Ukraine already been a member of NATO. NATO is not primarily an organization for waging war but above all an organization for preventing warContinue reading “The US Must Learn From Ukraine War How to Prevent War in the Middle East”

Rethinking the American-Saudi-Israeli Triangular Relationship

In a 2021 visit to Saudi Arabia by US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud offered to fully normalize relations with Israel in return for advanced American weapons sales and a US-Saudi defense pact whereby the US would promise to defend the KSA in the event Saudi Arabia was invadedContinue reading “Rethinking the American-Saudi-Israeli Triangular Relationship”

Time for American-Saudi-Israeli Strategic Dialogue

Washington is fully coordinated with Jerusalem in its preparations of military options against Tehran. However, peculiar enough Riyadh has been kept outside the loop. This is very concerning considering that coordinating with the KSA is vital in preparation for air strikes against the Iranian nuclear weapons program, imposing a no-fly zone over Iran and preparingContinue reading “Time for American-Saudi-Israeli Strategic Dialogue”

The New Heartland

Islamists all strive for world hegemony through political control over Islamdom. While it is true that Islamists hold significant power in Pakistan and Turkey, they are not in full control over those nations, neither of which is a theocracy. Iran is a different matter though as Tehran is a great power under full Islamist controlContinue reading “The New Heartland”

The West Should Stop Dragging its Feet on Arming Ukraine

Ukraine says that it has only received about 10% of the weapons deliveries it has requested from the West. What could conceivably explain this scandalous situation? Either Western governments are greedy, incompetent and bureaucratic (something which seems unlikely) to the detriment of Ukraine or else is there a deliberate policy in place of not providingContinue reading “The West Should Stop Dragging its Feet on Arming Ukraine”

Massive US Force Buildup Necessary Prior to Destroying Nuclear Program

The ostensible negotiations process with Iran might seem like a waste of time considering Iran’s complete lack of interest in an agreement with the United States. However, that is certainly not the case as the time is well used by Iran’s intended victims to prepare for war against Iran. There are three levels of militaryContinue reading “Massive US Force Buildup Necessary Prior to Destroying Nuclear Program”

We Need to Defend the Oil Wells

The Middle East and the world will be in great danger following Israel and America’s inevitable destruction of Iran’s nuclear weapon’s program as Iran will not under any circumstances be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons capability. Twelver Sharia forbids offensive war and for the ruling mullahs in Iran is the American-Israeli destruction of the nuclearContinue reading “We Need to Defend the Oil Wells”

Inside Iran’s Expansionist Mindset

Twelver Shia theology prohibits offensive war but Khomeinists believe it allows terrorism which it peculiarly construes as defensive, so-called “resistance”. Khomeinist Iran has so far engaged in regional expansionism through proxies, i.e. Shiite militias. Iran also maintains a close relationship with the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood everywhere but in Syria, which is also expressed in Iran’sContinue reading “Inside Iran’s Expansionist Mindset”

Northern Peace Will Come at a Heavy Cost

Iranian officials state over and over again that Israel will be destroyed if Israel destroys the Iranian nuclear weapons program. They literally mean what they say. What this means is that the entire Iranian axis (primarily Hezbollah) will engage in a frontal assault against Israel with projectiles, including ones with chemical warheads. (Iranian use ofContinue reading “Northern Peace Will Come at a Heavy Cost”

Erdogan’s Invasion Threatens Vital Israeli Interests

Erdogan once more threatens to invade NES (North and East Syria). He threatened this already in November 2021 and his plans were apparently shelved by the Sabbatean-controlled Derin Devlet deep state domestic intelligence apparatus which has significant influence over both TAF (Turkish Armed Forces) and the Turkish government.  There are currently no moves on theContinue reading “Erdogan’s Invasion Threatens Vital Israeli Interests”

There is Nothing to Negotiate

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has long made it known that the conflict will ostensibly end at the negotiating table. It is a common tactic for parties to armed conflicts to give an impression of being open to “negotiations” and “compromise” in order to garner international sympathy. However, in this case is it ill-advised because itContinue reading “There is Nothing to Negotiate”

Strategic Deterrence will Fail

“We have told the world we are not willing to take it anymore,” he said. “Iran says we can bring the war to your doorstep, because you will never bring it to ours. This is not going to happen. This is not how it’s going to play. I understand why they felt that this isContinue reading “Strategic Deterrence will Fail”

Why Hezbollah Will Attack Israel

There are multiple reasons why Hezbollah and its allies in the Iranian axis in the Middle East will engage in a frontal assault on Israel after Israel and the US destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program once so-called “negotiations” have become completely exhausted. 1. The Iranian regime systematically states that this will happen if theContinue reading “Why Hezbollah Will Attack Israel”

America, Israel and Iran – A Reality Check

The reality that most do not want to acknowledge is that the Khomeinist leadership in Iran for their own reasons simply do not want to return to the JCPOA and they are not interested in any alternative agreement either. Any viable agreement would have to have bipartisan support and be acceptable to Israel and itsContinue reading “America, Israel and Iran – A Reality Check”

Russia’s Successful Nuclear Deterrence

Under what conditions would Russia be willing to use tactical nuclear weapons? It is important to understand that nuclear weapons are mainly psychological weapons. They are meant for psychological deterrence, mainly not to be used, as using strategic nuclear weapons is out of question in Europe. This surely opens the question under what circumstances andContinue reading “Russia’s Successful Nuclear Deterrence”

The Approaching Khomeinist Apocalypse

“I am decisely announcing to the whole world that if the world-devourers [the infidel powers] wish to stand against our religion, we will stand against the whole world and will not cease until the annihilation of all of them. Either we all become free, or we will go to the greater freedom, which is martyrdom.Continue reading “The Approaching Khomeinist Apocalypse”

The United States Needs Saudi Arabia

The early assessment by the Biden administration that a return to the JCPOA could be taken for granted and that the US did not really need Saudi Arabia as an ally has been disproven by subsequent events. Iran is more aggressive than ever and Ali Khamenei is apparently grooming the arch-extremist president Ebrahim Raisi asContinue reading “The United States Needs Saudi Arabia”

The Danger of Preemptive Apocalypse

Tehran is currently moderately convinced that America and Israel will not dare to destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program. This is one of the reasons for its rejectionism in Vienna. Nevertheless, on Quds Day, Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah threatened that Iran might attack Israel directly if Israeli sabotage operations against the Iranian nuclear weapons programContinue reading “The Danger of Preemptive Apocalypse”

What is Wrong with the Iran Experts?

For over a year Iran experts and intelligence analysts around the world predicted that Iran would return to the JCPOA. Only now are Israeli officials coming to the realization that there won’t be an agreement. Even so they claim that chances of an agreement are “slim to none”. This reveals a complete misreading of theContinue reading “What is Wrong with the Iran Experts?”

Putin’s Gazprom Gambit

Russia’s illegal cancellation of its contracts for delivery of natural gas to Poland and Bulgaria is a transparent attempt at divide and rule. Moscow is trying to divide EU nations among themselves in an attempt to deter the West from providing Ukraine with more heavy weapons. Of course, Russia will not cancel its deliveries ofContinue reading “Putin’s Gazprom Gambit”

Inside the Khomeinist Mind

The Iranian regime openly states that its overarching geostrategic goal is to prompt the reappearance of the Hidden Imam. Yet academic experts and intelligence analysts do tend to not pay attention to the religious dimension of Iranian decision making. Khomeinism is unique in the sense as being the only form of Islamism that is apocalypticContinue reading “Inside the Khomeinist Mind”

Every Inch of Ukrainian Territory

The US government has since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine famously rhetorically committed to the defense of “every inch of NATO territory”. The US policy in defense of Ukraine has been more ambiguous and which aims at “slowing down the Russian advance”. However at one point the Ukrainians decided to go on theContinue reading “Every Inch of Ukrainian Territory”

Biden Should put his Money Where his Mouth Is

US president Joe Biden has accused Russia of committing genocide in Ukraine with the caveat that legal experts will have to ultimately determine whether the situation actually legally constitutes genocide. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed Biden’s statement but pointed out that Ukraine urgently needs delivery of heavy weapons. One may surely wonder why NATO nationsContinue reading “Biden Should put his Money Where his Mouth Is”

How the West Misunderstands Russia and Iran

Western specialists tend to underemphasize the importance of state ideology in the foreign policy of Iran. In contrast, Western specialists tend to overemphasize the importance of state ideology in the foreign policy of Russia. There is the tendency to label the Russian leadership as irrational and dangerous while the Iranian leadership is not similarly labeledContinue reading “How the West Misunderstands Russia and Iran”

The Price of Aggression

Let there be no doubt that if Hezbollah and the rest of the Iranian axis launch a frontal assault on Israel in response to Israel and America destroying the Iranian nuclear weapons program there will surely be a hefty price to pay. There will be consequences, there will be a major war in the northernContinue reading “The Price of Aggression”

Khomeinism and Iranian Foreign Policy

Ayatollah Khomeini introduced a governing principle according to which Iranian national interests take precedence over sharia. This may seem surprising for an Islamist theocratic regime but can be observed in Iranian foreign policy for various parts of the world. Iran is completely silent on China’s Han colonization of Xinjiang and totalitarian policies of coerced assimilationContinue reading “Khomeinism and Iranian Foreign Policy”

Building the Regional Security Architecture Cannot Wait

The triangular relationship between the State of Israel, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United States of America is essential for the emerging regional security architecture in the Middle East and Islamdom at large. Much is at stake, will Iran come to dominate the Middle East and Islamdom or will it not? All thisContinue reading “Building the Regional Security Architecture Cannot Wait”

Saudi Arabia is Indispensable to the New Regional Security Architecture

Iran is engaged in a concerted military expansion of its military assets in the Middle East, including missiles and drones. The State of Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia are the two most important pillars in the emerging new regional security architecture in the Middle East in particular and in Islamdom at large. Yet,Continue reading “Saudi Arabia is Indispensable to the New Regional Security Architecture”

Who is Right on Iran?

What are Iran’s intentions in Vienna? Non-Iranian intelligence agencies do not appear to know. Many weeks ago there was a flood of Israeli predictions of an imminent deal in Vienna but those fears have certainly not materialized and now even the Americans appear skeptical at the feasibility of a return to the JCPOA. I haveContinue reading “Who is Right on Iran?”

The West Should Hasten Ukraine’s Victory

The ZSU (Armed Forces of Ukraine) have exposed the Russian military as incompetent, corrupt and unmotivated. It is important to further demoralize the Russian side by hastening its defeat in Ukraine. While it is true that Russia has incrementally made tactical territorial gains, primarily in southern Ukraine, the ZSU has been winning strategically all alongContinue reading “The West Should Hasten Ukraine’s Victory”

First Things First

American diplomacy and American leadership is imperative in ending the war in Ukraine which undoubtedly is intended by Russia to constitute the very beginning of WWIII. Relations between Moscow and Washington are at their lowest point in decades but it is nevertheless essential for the United States to reach out diplomatically to the Russian Federation.Continue reading “First Things First”