The US government has once more ventured onto the hopeless, dangerous and counterproductive route of indirect negotiations with Iran. Time is something that the Iranian regime cannot afford to waste and has therefore no interest whatsoever in concluding even a tactical agreement with ’the Great Satan’. This is so because the continual progression in theContinue reading “Looking Weak and Confused”
Tag Archives: Nuclear weapons
US Deterrence Depends on Credibility
One problem with US deterrence vis-a-vis Iran is the ambiguity surrounding the question as to who will take out Iran’s nuclear weapon’s program. If Israel isn’t convinced that America will take part, then who can blame Iran for not believing America? Why is not Israel convinced that America will act militarily to neutralize the IranianContinue reading “US Deterrence Depends on Credibility”
Strategic Dialogue is Required
There are certain issues regarding Iran where the US and Israel do not show each other their respective cards. That may likely include the point when they consider it necessary to strike the Iranian nuclear program. They should show each other their cards. Washington and Jerusalem is like a couple who are lying to eachContinue reading “Strategic Dialogue is Required”
A Joint Iran Operation is a Shared US-Israeli Interest
The US is able to deter Iran, i.e. temporarily so, but it has to be sustained over time in order to ensure homeland security from the threat of Iranian biological terrorism against major American cities. The US is right to pursue military integration with Israel as this bolsters US deterrence vis-a-vis Iran. However, this requiresContinue reading “A Joint Iran Operation is a Shared US-Israeli Interest”
Why the USAF Should Participate in the Northern War
There is a strong case for the US Air Force participating on Israel’s side in the Northern War without putting a single boot on the ground. For Israel is the Northern War an existential matter as it is a war of no choice, it will indeed be fought as it is only a matter ofContinue reading “Why the USAF Should Participate in the Northern War”
The US Must Make a Strategic Decision
The US cannot be everywhere and must prioritize. However, Russia, China and Iran must all be contained separately. The goal must be to prevent war and if this fails – to win war. Regarding Russia must the goal be to defeat Russia, kick it out of Ukraine and then woo it to integrate into theContinue reading “The US Must Make a Strategic Decision”
A Joint Iran Operation is Pivotal for American Deterrence
The first lesson from Ramadan this year is that Israel does not control the pulse in the Levant, Iran does. What is the strategic reality in terms of deterrence? Israel does not believe that Iran will dare use chemical weapons against the Jewish state or Israel would be distributing gas masks, thus Israeli non-conventional deterrenceContinue reading “A Joint Iran Operation is Pivotal for American Deterrence”
Learn From the Past
When Israel under US pressure rerouted the Jerusalem Day Flag Parade it led to war with Hamas in Gaza; whenever the regular route was followed there was no war. Rerouting the Flag Parade is extremely dangerous because it is perceived as a victory for terrorism and as such it encourages terrorism and therefore may leadContinue reading “Learn From the Past”
Deterring Iran is Imperative
The foreign policy of the Biden administration is improving over time as it is becoming increasingly hawkish. For a long time was America under President Joe Biden perceived by its foreign adversaries as ”weak”, yet no longer so. Openly sending a nuclear-armed submarine to the Persian Gulf was the right thing to do and immediatelyContinue reading “Deterring Iran is Imperative”
Iran Will Lose Syria and Lebanon
“When necessary – we will push them out of Syria to where they belong – and that is Iran.” Yoav Gallant, Israeli minister of defense Iran as usual is strategically arrogant but tactically cautious. The mullahs believe that Iran and its allies are capable of destroying the Jewish state. Previously was it believed that IsraelContinue reading “Iran Will Lose Syria and Lebanon”
Will Khamenei Order Nasrallah to Attack?
The Israeli defense establishment is convinced that Hezbollah is planning to take advantage of Israel’s perceived ”weakness” to attack Israel in Tehran hence believing that Israel will want to limit the conflict rather than widen it. Israel’s defense minister Yoav Gallant has warned that this is not the case, that Iran will face a NorthernContinue reading “Will Khamenei Order Nasrallah to Attack?”
The Northern War is a War of No Choice
The neutralization of the Iranian nuclear weapons program is most clearly a war of no choice because the completion of the nuclear weapons program would pose an existential threat against the State of Israel. This is clear, but is the ensuing Northern War also a war of no choice? The answer to that question isContinue reading “The Northern War is a War of No Choice”
When is Iran Planning to Attack the American Homeland?
“The Death of America will happen.” Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Khamenei Iran assumes that no one will dare neutralize the Iranian nuclear weapons program, but they have a backup response plan for that event which involves destroying Israel. This future conflict is known in Israel as theContinue reading “When is Iran Planning to Attack the American Homeland?”
What is President Biden Afraid Of?
Ukraine has been sufficiently armed to defend itself but not liberate its occupied territories. That’s the painful reality that Ukrainians are facing. Yet, President Biden and many of his European allies are still apparently entertaining some Russian propaganda delusions that sufficiently arming Ukraine would have ”dangerous consequences”. The question is who is deterring whom? CurrentlyContinue reading “What is President Biden Afraid Of?”
Saudi-Iranian Resumption of Diplomatic Relations are Good News
The Chinese-brokered agreement to resume normal diplomatic relations between Riyadh and Tehran means that an Iranian invasion of the KSA after Israel (and the US) neutralize the Iranian nuclear weapons program, is off the table and that is good news for the global economy. Yet, it does not mean that the threat of an IranianContinue reading “Saudi-Iranian Resumption of Diplomatic Relations are Good News”
Cutting the Gordian Knot
There are currently intense trilateral US-Saudi-Israeli negotiations aimed at reaching a peace agreement between Riyadh and Jerusalem. Riyadh has two demands – down from three. The KSA demands security guarantees from the US and that Washington helps Riyadh develop a domestic nuclear program, including indigenous uranium enrichment. MBS has apparently dropped the demand for USContinue reading “Cutting the Gordian Knot”
Genocide in America
Make no mistake, the United States of America, a.k.a. “The Great Satan” is the main and primary adversary of the Islamic Republic of Iran. “Death to America” is no mere slogan, the Supreme Leader says it will happen. Why is this so? For the same reason why 9/11 happened. Because Islamist ideologues generally are stronglyContinue reading “Genocide in America”
What is Iran’s War Plan?
Khomeinist theologians believe that the destruction of Israel is a precondition for the Hidden Imam to reappear. I.e. as long as Israel exists won’t the Hidden Imam reappear and so is Israel according to this particular theology an obstacle to the emergence of the messianic age. This is why theocratic Iran is so obsessed withContinue reading “What is Iran’s War Plan?”
Inside the Minds of Iranian Strategists
The Khomeinist regime in Tehran has long preferred not to invade other countries and rather rely on proxies to project Iranian power. Iran first and foremost wants to control the Khomeinist Apocalyptic region, the triangle of Mecca, Jerusalem and Damascus. There can be little doubt that the Iranian military will cross Iraq to reach SyriaContinue reading “Inside the Minds of Iranian Strategists”
The Moment of Truth
President Biden has many times publicly vowed to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear arms. Attacking Iran may be a difficult decision to make for the American president, but it is far more dangerous for America not to participate in an attack than to participate. Why is this so? Because showing weakness is profoundly dangerous inContinue reading “The Moment of Truth”
On the Danger of Nuclear War
Russian propaganda would want us to believe that Moscow will resort to nuclear weapons if Russia is defeated and expelled from Ukraine. Of course, as usual Russia disseminates disinformation. The opposite is true. If Russia is defeated in Ukraine and the Russian war machine crushed will Moscow effectively have no choice but to join theContinue reading “On the Danger of Nuclear War”
Iran is Determined to Destroy America
According to Iran’s regime ideology is America, Tehran’s main enemy. The reason this is so as for all Islamist ideologists is that the American superpower is considered identical with the purported global Jewish conspiracy to destroy Islam. The Obama and Biden administrations have pursued a strategy of appeasing Iran and hoping to eventually align withContinue reading “Iran is Determined to Destroy America”
Why is Tehran Training for a US-led Naval Invasion of Iran?
Iran regards the sole threat to its territory as coming from the Persian Gulf; i.e. from a US-led naval invasion of Iran and is actively training to counter this perceived threat. However, on the face of it, this seems utterly implausible in the extreme. Why would the United States want to get entangled in yetContinue reading “Why is Tehran Training for a US-led Naval Invasion of Iran?”
Russia is Facing Defeat in Ukraine
Russia’s offensive in Ukraine shows no signs of progress and now we once more hear those tired threats of nuclear war. There is also the official Russian rhetoric according to which losing the war in Ukraine would pose an existential threat against Russia. What’s behind all that? The only existential threat against Russia, indeed theContinue reading “Russia is Facing Defeat in Ukraine”
The US is to Blame for Failed Mideast Policy
Islamdom is America’s weak spot. George W. Bush tried to democratize Islamdom only to find out that the majority of the electorate in many Muslim nations votes Islamist, meaning that there are no prospects for democratization in many Muslim nations because the majority of the people wants totalitarianism. Yet, Bush’s democratization campaign resulted in theContinue reading “The US is to Blame for Failed Mideast Policy”
Hezbollah’s Diplomatic Lobby
As the Middle East finds itself on the brink of war the usual suspects in the so-called international community undoubtedly once more line up to pressure the Jewish state. However, Hezbollah has been instructed by Tehran to start a war with Israel for reasons unrelated to Lebanon and so it does not really matter whetherContinue reading “Hezbollah’s Diplomatic Lobby”
Israel Borders Iran
What we are witnessing is truly surreal. It is becoming ever more clear that Lebanon has ceased to exist as an independent nation and is now merely an Iranian protectorate. Iran is currently carrying out two faux negotiation processes with its two archenemies, Israel and the United States, through proxies. The negotiation process with IsraelContinue reading “Israel Borders Iran”
How Iran is Instigating War
Why would Iran want a war in the Levant now? This is an excellent question that requires some elaboration. Iran is moderately convinced that Israel and America are deterred by Iranian weapons of mass destruction and will not dare to destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program. However, Tehran is less certain when it comes toContinue reading “How Iran is Instigating War”
Washington Shouldn’t be Surprised
Washington is unpleasantly surprised over OPEC’s production cut and accuses the organization of aligning with Russia. However, President Biden has no reason to be surprised considering his own reckless policy of selling out GCC interests in the Iran nuclear talks. America is not behaving with self-respect let alone with respect for the interests of itsContinue reading “Washington Shouldn’t be Surprised”
The US and Israel are both Wrong on Iran Diplomacy
Washington still clings to the illusion that Tehran is interested in returning to the JCPOA and would ultimately do so. Jerusalem clings to a similar illusion in believing that it is possible to deter Iran in claiming that if Tehran was presented with a credible military deterrence that would threaten its survival (i.e. a no-flyContinue reading “The US and Israel are both Wrong on Iran Diplomacy”
Iran Plans Major Conventional War
What is the purpose of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons? There is more than one purpose: 1) Iran gains immunity from any future US invasion under any circumstances no matter how maliciously and atrociously Iran acts. 2) Iran can perpetrate acts of biological and chemical terrorism with complete impunity. 3) Iran would have the option ofContinue reading “Iran Plans Major Conventional War”
Putin Bluffs Badly
Russian President Vladimir Putin claims that he is not bluffing and that he is considering attacking NATO with nuclear weapons. Once more he is trying to use his former image in the West as an ostensible “madman”. What does he come out proving? Yes, he is desperate and he is running out of options andContinue reading “Putin Bluffs Badly”
What Will Happen After the Destruction of the Iranian Nuclear Weapons Program?
A weekend interview in the Israeli daily Israel Hayom provided an insight into the perspectives of Israeli decision-makers. The interview was with one colonel T; the head of the IDF General Staff Strategy and Third-Circle Directorate. Ostensibly was the interview a sales pitch in order to persuade Israeli elected politicians to engage more in Iran-relatedContinue reading “What Will Happen After the Destruction of the Iranian Nuclear Weapons Program?”
On the Likelihood of Returning to the JCPOA
In the international community there is endless chatter about the presumed “relative likelihood” for the resumption of the JCPOA, according to many officials this “likelihood” varies by the month and the week. But is this really true? The fact is that the US government strongly wants an agreement, albeit not at any price. If TehranContinue reading “On the Likelihood of Returning to the JCPOA”
Fool me Once, Twice, Thrice
The international community, including Israel, refuses to learn from being serially deceived by Iran. It was in the interest of Khomeinist Iran to sign a nuclear agreement in 2015 with the P5+1 but what has changed since then are Elon Musk and Tesla with the rapid development of electric vehicles and with that the definitiveContinue reading “Fool me Once, Twice, Thrice”
The US Needs a Regime Change Policy on Iran
The US government lives in an illusion fed by the Iranian regime, namely that Iran somehow has an interest in a nuclear agreement with the P5+1. Contrary to US assessments and due to increasing progress in the development of electric vehicles, something which radically shrinks the window of opportunity for oil-based Mahdist neo-imperialism, Iran hasContinue reading “The US Needs a Regime Change Policy on Iran”
A Colossal Intelligence Failure
The Western intelligence community operates on the assumption that Iran is interested in returning to the JCPOA. Yet, no matter how many times this false belief has been discredited by persistent Iranian rejectionism, the Western intelligence community has clung to this patently false belief. If Iran was motivated primarily by economic imperatives then surely notContinue reading “A Colossal Intelligence Failure”
What are Tehran’s Interests Regarding the Karish Maritime Border Dispute?
Israel withdrew from Lebanon in the year 2000 but Tehran was not satisfied and so Iran/Hezbollah instructed the Lebanese government to manufacture the Sheba farm (Har Dov) fictitious border claims on lands in the northern Golan heights. Iran/Hezbollah did it again in 2022 when it instructed the Lebanese government to expand Lebanon’s claims for territorialContinue reading “What are Tehran’s Interests Regarding the Karish Maritime Border Dispute?”
Does Israel Want War with the Iranian Axis?
The view from Jerusalem regarding Iran’s nuclear intentions is rather befuddled. One day we hear that there is little risk that there will be a return to the JCPOA and the next day we hear that such return is imminent and these “assessments” are unwittingly cyclically repeated and so the master manipulators in Tehran mustContinue reading “Does Israel Want War with the Iranian Axis?”
Jerusalem and Tehran are Different Conceptual Universes
Israel and Iran are both looking forward to establishing a new regional order and neither side fears regional war. Nevertheless, the respective visions of the new regional order look completely different. Both sides envision establishing regional hegemony and removing each other from power. What is the reason for these radically different strategic conceptions? At theContinue reading “Jerusalem and Tehran are Different Conceptual Universes”
The US Needs a Deterrence Strategy Against Iran
There is no question that in the long term China poses the greatest strategic challenge to US interests worldwide, but in the short term, Iran is the greatest threat to the American homeland. The threat of Iran attacking America with biological weapons brought to America’s coastlines with Iranian submarines and deployed after America and IsraelContinue reading “The US Needs a Deterrence Strategy Against Iran”
Iran Poses a Greater Threat to the US than to Israel
America’s adversaries, including Iran, fear Republican administrations but certainly not Democratic administrations. Why is this so? Democratic administrations are more concerned about human rights while Republican administrations are more concerned about realpolitik. The real question is therefore whether the Iranian nuclear weapons program will be destroyed under the current Democratic administration or under the nextContinue reading “Iran Poses a Greater Threat to the US than to Israel”
Iran has a Timeline
Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah has given a television interview in giving us some insight into how the Khomeinist elite currently conceive of messianic time. Khomeinism of course is unique in that it is the only form of Islamism that is apocalyptic. Nasrallah referred to some news reports from the US and Israeli media as indicationsContinue reading “Iran has a Timeline”
The Success of Russian Psychological Warfare
Russia is currently suffering tactical military defeat on the battlefield in Ukraine and is exhausting its military assets. Yet the outcome is still a stalemate and a military deadlock on the battlefield. However, the Russians are prevailing on the strategic level because they are succeeding in their psychological warfare against NATO and the United States.Continue reading “The Success of Russian Psychological Warfare”
Nothing Except Military Action Will Stop Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program
There was a disagreement during the meeting in Israel between President Biden and Prime Minister Lapid on the question of Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Prime Minister Lapid insisted that only deterrence would persuade Iran to sign a nuclear agreement while President Biden insisted that diplomacy was still the best way forward. Both are wrong sinceContinue reading “Nothing Except Military Action Will Stop Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program”
Iran’s Window of Opportunity
Iranian senior officials openly and publicly state that their overarching strategy is to prompt the reappearance of the Hidden Imam in Mecca leading to global Khomeinist theocratic rule. One crucial factor which is closing the window on Iranian eschatological imperialism is however the advent of electric vehicles. The electric vehicle industry has changed much sinceContinue reading “Iran’s Window of Opportunity”
The Saudis are No Suckers
The US-Saudi relationship was always based on oil in return for security. There were those Americans who lately mistakenly presumed that the United States no longer needed Saudi Arabia. This is wrong. The US will need the KSA as a staging ground for any military action against Iran after Tehran lashes out against the outsideContinue reading “The Saudis are No Suckers”
The Iranians Know What They Want
After the failed talks in Doha about returning to the JCPOA are American diplomats bitterly complaining that the Iranians are seemingly unable to decide whether to resume or bury the JCPOA. This is a complete and utter misunderstanding of the Iranian position which is to have their cake and eat it too. Iran wants continuedContinue reading “The Iranians Know What They Want”
The US Must Learn From Ukraine War How to Prevent War in the Middle East
Why are Finland and Sweden suddenly applying for membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization? They understand the simple truth that the Russian invasion of Ukraine would never have occurred had Ukraine already been a member of NATO. NATO is not primarily an organization for waging war but above all an organization for preventing warContinue reading “The US Must Learn From Ukraine War How to Prevent War in the Middle East”
Rethinking the American-Saudi-Israeli Triangular Relationship
In a 2021 visit to Saudi Arabia by US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud offered to fully normalize relations with Israel in return for advanced American weapons sales and a US-Saudi defense pact whereby the US would promise to defend the KSA in the event Saudi Arabia was invadedContinue reading “Rethinking the American-Saudi-Israeli Triangular Relationship”
Aliyah Organization 