The government of Israel is highly uninterested in fighting war during this turbulent period in Israeli political history. For Iran and Hezbollah however does it appear to be a perfect time for war. Indeed, the Iranian Axis is itching for war. The long series of provocations along Israel’s northern borders take place precisely because Jafari (Twelver) jurisprudence prohibits offensive war.
What will the Northern War look like, which the Iranians want so much and which the Israelis seek to defer for as long as possible? Iran’s proxies are trying to provoke Israel into respond harshly in a way which will allow Hezbollah to respond in a way which is technically ”defensive” under Jafari jurisprudence, yet starts the war.
The most likely scenario is still that Hezbollah will launch massive barrages of rockets and missiles against Israel after Israel alone or together with the United States neutralizes the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Then Israel will invade Lebanon and Syria in order to liquidate Hezbollah (which is spread throughout both countries), pro-Iranian Syrian Twelver Shia militias and Iranian military forces in Syria. Incidentally this will involve confrontation with the militaries of Lebanon and Syria which will therefore also have to be defeated.
Russia will stay neutral in the conflict as the Israelis have promised Putin that Russia be able to retain its military bases in the Alawite region under Israeli sovereignty provided that Russia stays out of the Northern War. Iran in contrast will transport most of its army to Syria through Iraq which will make the fatal mistake of permitting transit for the Iranian military.
Iran envisions a scenario where the Iranian axis beats the Israelis on the battlefield in Syria, ”liberates historical Palestine” in its entirety while ”annihilating the Zionist entity”. They are convinced that they will succeed and thus pave the way for the reappearance for the Hidden Imam.
Israel envisions a rather different scenario. Israel expects to beat the Iranian Axis on the battlefield in Syria and Lebanon and thus forcing Iranian forces to retreat eastwards towards Iraq. Israel will not stop at the Iraqi border but will strive to liquidate the fleeing Iranian army and pro-Iranian PMU militias in Iraq.
The Syrian Kurds will be given control of most of Syria and much of Lebanon so Israel will not need to stay on as occupiers. The same model will be replicated in Iraq after it is conquered by the IDF. The Israeli forces will not stay on as occupiers but will hand over full control to the Iraqi Kurds.
The next phase will be liberate Iranian Kurdistan and particularly Yarsani areas in southern Rojhelat, plus Luristan (which also has a significant Yarsani population) and oil-rich Arab Khuzestan in order to deprive the mullah regime of most income from oil exports.
AANES will become the new government in Damascus and an Aramean State officially bilingual in Aramaic and Arabic will be set up in parts of Lebanon. East Beirut, Jerusalem and Damascus will conclude a peace treaty where Golan plus Median Jewish (Alawite and Druze) regions are ceded to Israel while Syria annexes Muslim parts of Lebanon. Remaining Christian regions in Syria and Lebanon should be offered the choice in a referendum of being part of feminist Syria or liberal-democratic Israel.
The war would allow 4 millions Median Jews of Iraq and Iran to immigrate to Israel and would give Israel peace with Baghdad, Damascus and East Beirut. Iran’s military would be crushed and the mullah regime deprived of most of its oil revenues.
Aliyah Organization 