The US and Israel are both Wrong on Iran Diplomacy

Washington still clings to the illusion that Tehran is interested in returning to the JCPOA and would ultimately do so. Jerusalem clings to a similar illusion in believing that it is possible to deter Iran in claiming that if Tehran was presented with a credible military deterrence that would threaten its survival (i.e. a no-flyContinue reading “The US and Israel are both Wrong on Iran Diplomacy”

Iran Plans Major Conventional War

What is the purpose of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons? There is more than one purpose: 1) Iran gains immunity from any future US invasion under any circumstances no matter how maliciously and atrociously Iran acts. 2) Iran can perpetrate acts of biological and chemical terrorism with complete impunity. 3) Iran would have the option ofContinue reading “Iran Plans Major Conventional War”

A Colossal Intelligence Failure

The Western intelligence community operates on the assumption that Iran is interested in returning to the JCPOA. Yet, no matter how many times this false belief has been discredited by persistent Iranian rejectionism, the Western intelligence community has clung to this patently false belief. If Iran was motivated primarily by economic imperatives then surely notContinue reading “A Colossal Intelligence Failure”

Does Israel Want War with the Iranian Axis?

The view from Jerusalem regarding Iran’s nuclear intentions is rather befuddled. One day we hear that there is little risk that there will be a return to the JCPOA and the next day we hear that such return is imminent and these “assessments” are unwittingly cyclically repeated and so the master manipulators in Tehran mustContinue reading “Does Israel Want War with the Iranian Axis?”

Jerusalem and Tehran are Different Conceptual Universes

Israel and Iran are both looking forward to establishing a new regional order and neither side fears regional war. Nevertheless, the respective visions of the new regional order look completely different. Both sides envision establishing regional hegemony and removing each other from power. What is the reason for these radically different strategic conceptions? At theContinue reading “Jerusalem and Tehran are Different Conceptual Universes”

Iran Poses a Greater Threat to the US than to Israel

America’s adversaries, including Iran, fear Republican administrations but certainly not Democratic administrations. Why is this so? Democratic administrations are more concerned about human rights while Republican administrations are more concerned about realpolitik. The real question is therefore whether the Iranian nuclear weapons program will be destroyed under the current Democratic administration or under the nextContinue reading “Iran Poses a Greater Threat to the US than to Israel”

The Khomeinists are Drunk on Mahdism

International Iran experts are consistently behind the curve in missing how Iran’s current rulers are influenced by Mahdism. What is behind the most recent threats by Hassan Nasrallah against Israel concerning the gas rigs in Israel’s exclusive economic zone? Nasrallah, like other leading Khomeinists, genuinely and strongly believe that the Hezbollah-led Iranian axis has theContinue reading “The Khomeinists are Drunk on Mahdism”

Iran has a Timeline

Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah has given a television interview in giving us some insight into how the Khomeinist elite currently conceive of messianic time. Khomeinism of course is unique in that it is the only form of Islamism that is apocalyptic. Nasrallah referred to some news reports from the US and Israeli media as indicationsContinue reading “Iran has a Timeline”

Nothing Except Military Action Will Stop Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program

There was a disagreement during the meeting in Israel between President Biden and Prime Minister Lapid on the question of Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Prime Minister Lapid insisted that only deterrence would persuade Iran to sign a nuclear agreement while President Biden insisted that diplomacy was still the best way forward. Both are wrong sinceContinue reading “Nothing Except Military Action Will Stop Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program”

A Bipartisan Strategy for Great Power Competition for the Next 50 Years

There is not much disagreement between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party on Russia and China and there won’t be on Iran once the negotiation track is definitely declared dead. What is needed is a threepronged bipartisan global strategy for the next 50 years. Russia, China and Iran each require a unique strategy ofContinue reading “A Bipartisan Strategy for Great Power Competition for the Next 50 Years”

Can Iran’s Apocalyptic Scheme be Thwarted?

If Iran did not believe that Iranian territorial control over the Twelver eschatological region was essential for the success of the planned Khomeinist man-made apocalypse as intended to prompt the reappearance of the Hidden Imam in Mecca, then surely Iran would not be so geostrategically obsessed with taking control over this region where the threeContinue reading “Can Iran’s Apocalyptic Scheme be Thwarted?”

Iran’s Window of Opportunity

Iranian senior officials openly and publicly state that their overarching strategy is to prompt the reappearance of the Hidden Imam in Mecca leading to global Khomeinist theocratic rule. One crucial factor which is closing the window on Iranian eschatological imperialism is however the advent of electric vehicles. The electric vehicle industry has changed much sinceContinue reading “Iran’s Window of Opportunity”

Once Iran Conquers the Gulf States

Iran is bent on taking control over the Twelver eschatological region which includes the cities of Mecca, Jerusalem and Damascus where the Islamic messianic figures of the Mahdi (identified by Twelvers with the Hidden Imam), the Dajjal (the Deceitful Messiah) and Jesus are slated to appear at the conclusion of Islamic history. Control over thisContinue reading “Once Iran Conquers the Gulf States”

The US Must Learn From Ukraine War How to Prevent War in the Middle East

Why are Finland and Sweden suddenly applying for membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization? They understand the simple truth that the Russian invasion of Ukraine would never have occurred had Ukraine already been a member of NATO. NATO is not primarily an organization for waging war but above all an organization for preventing warContinue reading “The US Must Learn From Ukraine War How to Prevent War in the Middle East”

US-Saudi Defense Pact Will Enable US to Disengage from the Middle East

The US must make more demands from its allies around the world. They must invest far more in defense and engage more in collective security. In the case of the European Union they must build their own unified military capability to wean themselves off dependence on America. While the US needs to commit to defendContinue reading “US-Saudi Defense Pact Will Enable US to Disengage from the Middle East”

A US-Saudi Defense Pact Would Checkmate Iran

Iranian geostrategy is focused like a laser beam on taking over the Twelver eschatological region with its immense oil resources, control over which would instantly transform Iran into a superpower able to extort America’s allies around the world. Islam has three messianic figures. These are 1) the Mahdi (identified by Twelvers with the Hidden Imam)Continue reading “A US-Saudi Defense Pact Would Checkmate Iran”

The New Heartland

Islamists all strive for world hegemony through political control over Islamdom. While it is true that Islamists hold significant power in Pakistan and Turkey, they are not in full control over those nations, neither of which is a theocracy. Iran is a different matter though as Tehran is a great power under full Islamist controlContinue reading “The New Heartland”

Massive US Force Buildup Necessary Prior to Destroying Nuclear Program

The ostensible negotiations process with Iran might seem like a waste of time considering Iran’s complete lack of interest in an agreement with the United States. However, that is certainly not the case as the time is well used by Iran’s intended victims to prepare for war against Iran. There are three levels of militaryContinue reading “Massive US Force Buildup Necessary Prior to Destroying Nuclear Program”

We Need to Defend the Oil Wells

The Middle East and the world will be in great danger following Israel and America’s inevitable destruction of Iran’s nuclear weapon’s program as Iran will not under any circumstances be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons capability. Twelver Sharia forbids offensive war and for the ruling mullahs in Iran is the American-Israeli destruction of the nuclearContinue reading “We Need to Defend the Oil Wells”

Inside Iran’s Expansionist Mindset

Twelver Shia theology prohibits offensive war but Khomeinists believe it allows terrorism which it peculiarly construes as defensive, so-called “resistance”. Khomeinist Iran has so far engaged in regional expansionism through proxies, i.e. Shiite militias. Iran also maintains a close relationship with the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood everywhere but in Syria, which is also expressed in Iran’sContinue reading “Inside Iran’s Expansionist Mindset”

Oman, Qatar and Kuwait Need to Join the Regional Security Architecture

Those who feed crocodiles are also subsequently eaten by those very same crocodiles. This is something for Oman, Qatar and Kuwait to ponder who all have made sure to maintain good relations with Iran. Yet can anyone doubt that the Iranian crocodile intends to swallow Oman, Qatar and Kuwait? Being friends with Tehran is likeContinue reading “Oman, Qatar and Kuwait Need to Join the Regional Security Architecture”

Strategic Deterrence will Fail

“We have told the world we are not willing to take it anymore,” he said. “Iran says we can bring the war to your doorstep, because you will never bring it to ours. This is not going to happen. This is not how it’s going to play. I understand why they felt that this isContinue reading “Strategic Deterrence will Fail”

Why Hezbollah Will Attack Israel

There are multiple reasons why Hezbollah and its allies in the Iranian axis in the Middle East will engage in a frontal assault on Israel after Israel and the US destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program once so-called “negotiations” have become completely exhausted. 1. The Iranian regime systematically states that this will happen if theContinue reading “Why Hezbollah Will Attack Israel”

America, Israel and Iran – A Reality Check

The reality that most do not want to acknowledge is that the Khomeinist leadership in Iran for their own reasons simply do not want to return to the JCPOA and they are not interested in any alternative agreement either. Any viable agreement would have to have bipartisan support and be acceptable to Israel and itsContinue reading “America, Israel and Iran – A Reality Check”

The Approaching Khomeinist Apocalypse

“I am decisely announcing to the whole world that if the world-devourers [the infidel powers] wish to stand against our religion, we will stand against the whole world and will not cease until the annihilation of all of them. Either we all become free, or we will go to the greater freedom, which is martyrdom.Continue reading “The Approaching Khomeinist Apocalypse”

The Danger of Preemptive Apocalypse

Tehran is currently moderately convinced that America and Israel will not dare to destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program. This is one of the reasons for its rejectionism in Vienna. Nevertheless, on Quds Day, Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah threatened that Iran might attack Israel directly if Israeli sabotage operations against the Iranian nuclear weapons programContinue reading “The Danger of Preemptive Apocalypse”

Inside the Khomeinist Mind

The Iranian regime openly states that its overarching geostrategic goal is to prompt the reappearance of the Hidden Imam. Yet academic experts and intelligence analysts do tend to not pay attention to the religious dimension of Iranian decision making. Khomeinism is unique in the sense as being the only form of Islamism that is apocalypticContinue reading “Inside the Khomeinist Mind”

How the West Misunderstands Russia and Iran

Western specialists tend to underemphasize the importance of state ideology in the foreign policy of Iran. In contrast, Western specialists tend to overemphasize the importance of state ideology in the foreign policy of Russia. There is the tendency to label the Russian leadership as irrational and dangerous while the Iranian leadership is not similarly labeledContinue reading “How the West Misunderstands Russia and Iran”

Khomeinism and Iranian Foreign Policy

Ayatollah Khomeini introduced a governing principle according to which Iranian national interests take precedence over sharia. This may seem surprising for an Islamist theocratic regime but can be observed in Iranian foreign policy for various parts of the world. Iran is completely silent on China’s Han colonization of Xinjiang and totalitarian policies of coerced assimilationContinue reading “Khomeinism and Iranian Foreign Policy”

Who is Right on Iran?

What are Iran’s intentions in Vienna? Non-Iranian intelligence agencies do not appear to know. Many weeks ago there was a flood of Israeli predictions of an imminent deal in Vienna but those fears have certainly not materialized and now even the Americans appear skeptical at the feasibility of a return to the JCPOA. I haveContinue reading “Who is Right on Iran?”

Despite Bravado Iran Fears Israel

In February 2022 Israel deployed six Israeli drones to successfully destroy hundreds of Iranian drones. It was not until now that Iran retaliated, by striking a Mossad training facility in Erbil, the capital of the KRI (Kurdistan Region of Iraq) with missiles launched from Iranian territory. This obviously represents a drastic escalation but it isContinue reading “Despite Bravado Iran Fears Israel”

It’s not About the Money

Israeli officials are somewhat hysterical in anticipation of a nuclear agreement materializing in Vienna. This of course is profoundly understandable since the JCPOA and an even worse hypothetical follow-up agreement are disastrous for Israeli security and are completely worthless as an insurance for Israeli survival. The question is however whether there will be an agreementContinue reading “It’s not About the Money”

Master Tacticians, Strategic Lunatics

Iran is tactically brilliant in always seeing opportunities to expand its influence but it must be kept in mind that it is strategically lunatic in seeking world rule for the Hidden Imam as its ultimate strategic goal. Hezbollah’s intentions have been much debated within the Israeli intelligence community. What is Hezbollah? Hezbollah is a franchiseContinue reading “Master Tacticians, Strategic Lunatics”

Iran does not Want to Defer the Apocalypse

Due to crushing UN economic sanctions did Iran agree to the JCPOA in 2015. Iran’s economic situation was such that Iran’s leaders agreed to defer the timeline of the Khomeinist apocalypse. Today in contrast there is no such incentive as Iran is able to export oil to China, and Tehran rightly sees no economic benefitContinue reading “Iran does not Want to Defer the Apocalypse”

The Approaching Apocalypse

Khomeinism is different from all other forms of Islamism in that it constitutes an apocalyptic death cult. No other sect of Islamism believes that the end of days is close in time. However, Khomeinism has no fixed date for the apocalypse which is somewhat flexible in time. The general understanding is that eschatological time wasContinue reading “The Approaching Apocalypse”

Regionwide War and Global Terror

Iran does not fear America which it considers bruised by war and defeated by international Jihadism. In the Khomeinist Weltanschauung is Israel merely one of the tentacles of the “worldwide” American-Jewish “octopus” and so Tehran believes that Jerusalem cannot independently decide on destroying Iran’s nuclear weapons program without a green light from Washington. Therefore willContinue reading “Regionwide War and Global Terror”

Imperialist Plans of Expansionism

Iran, China and Russia are all neo-imperialist powers and they intend to geographically expand in accordance with their respective geostrategic master plans. America in contrast which is no empire and has no imperialist designs has no master plan across presidencies for its foreign policy since every new president in the 21st century has devised hisContinue reading “Imperialist Plans of Expansionism”

Will Tehran use Biological Weapons?

While it is clear that Iran intends to use chemical weapons for mass terrorist attacks worldwide, on a vast scale following America’s and Israel’s joint destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons progam, the Khomeinist regime’s intentions to use biological weapons are more localized and may seem less obvious. Where and against whom will Tehran useContinue reading “Will Tehran use Biological Weapons?”

Apocalyptic Iran

Iran’s main designated adversaries are the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia. The notion of the United States as an implacable enemy of the Islamic Republic of Iran is based on Islamist Anti-Semitic conspiracy theory according to which the US is the center of the “Jewish conspiracy” to destroy Islam. The notion of Jews andContinue reading “Apocalyptic Iran”

Israel Underestimates Iranian Threat

Israel has a track record of underestimating the nefariousness of Iran’s intentions. Israeli intelligence until recently believed that Tehran was interested in a nuclear agreement with the United States. Until recently did senior Israeli military experts believe that Iran would not order Hezbollah to launch a frontal attack against Israeli cities with 150 000 rocketsContinue reading “Israel Underestimates Iranian Threat”

Establishing Global Theocratic Rule of the Hidden Imam

While this may seem strange is the theocratic establishment of the “global rule of the Hidden Imam” an official geostrategic goal of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Iranian regime is seriously convinced that the Iranian Islamist revolution constitutes an eschatological process that will culminate in Iranian world rule. This may seem detached from reality,Continue reading “Establishing Global Theocratic Rule of the Hidden Imam”

Iran’s Levantine Calculus

Iran approaches nuclear threshold status and Israel prepares to launch preemptive strikes against its nuclear weapons program. Will then Iran order Hezbollah to attack the city of Tel Aviv in response to Israel’s preemptive strikes? If Hezbollah does not launch barrages of missiles against the city of Tel Aviv will it effectively have become strategicallyContinue reading “Iran’s Levantine Calculus”

Tehran is not Interested in Reconciliation

There is a failure in the current class of Iran experts in ascertaining Iran’s strategic intentions. There is generally a failure in academia of experts on Islamism who do not grasp that we are dealing with a dangerous neo-imperialist, totalitarian, modern political ideology, but rather seem to think that Islamism is “a traditional religion”, “aContinue reading “Tehran is not Interested in Reconciliation”

Why Iran wants Nuclear Weapons

It is peculiar why so-called “anti-imperialists” are not concerned with Tehran’s clearly neo-imperial ambitions. Rather, “Anti-Imperialism” was a Soviet propaganda discourse closely connected to yet another Soviet propaganda discourse, namely “Anti-Zionism”. In fact, Soviet propaganda often mentioned “Anti-Imperialism and “Anti-Zionism” in one breath as if they were one. The Islamic Republic of Iran is oneContinue reading “Why Iran wants Nuclear Weapons”