Why Hezbollah Will Attack Israel

There are multiple reasons why Hezbollah and its allies in the Iranian axis in the Middle East will engage in a frontal assault on Israel after Israel and the US destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program once so-called “negotiations” have become completely exhausted. 1. The Iranian regime systematically states that this will happen if theContinue reading “Why Hezbollah Will Attack Israel”

America, Israel and Iran – A Reality Check

The reality that most do not want to acknowledge is that the Khomeinist leadership in Iran for their own reasons simply do not want to return to the JCPOA and they are not interested in any alternative agreement either. Any viable agreement would have to have bipartisan support and be acceptable to Israel and itsContinue reading “America, Israel and Iran – A Reality Check”

The Approaching Khomeinist Apocalypse

“I am decisely announcing to the whole world that if the world-devourers [the infidel powers] wish to stand against our religion, we will stand against the whole world and will not cease until the annihilation of all of them. Either we all become free, or we will go to the greater freedom, which is martyrdom.Continue reading “The Approaching Khomeinist Apocalypse”

The Danger of Preemptive Apocalypse

Tehran is currently moderately convinced that America and Israel will not dare to destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program. This is one of the reasons for its rejectionism in Vienna. Nevertheless, on Quds Day, Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah threatened that Iran might attack Israel directly if Israeli sabotage operations against the Iranian nuclear weapons programContinue reading “The Danger of Preemptive Apocalypse”

Inside the Khomeinist Mind

The Iranian regime openly states that its overarching geostrategic goal is to prompt the reappearance of the Hidden Imam. Yet academic experts and intelligence analysts do tend to not pay attention to the religious dimension of Iranian decision making. Khomeinism is unique in the sense as being the only form of Islamism that is apocalypticContinue reading “Inside the Khomeinist Mind”

How the West Misunderstands Russia and Iran

Western specialists tend to underemphasize the importance of state ideology in the foreign policy of Iran. In contrast, Western specialists tend to overemphasize the importance of state ideology in the foreign policy of Russia. There is the tendency to label the Russian leadership as irrational and dangerous while the Iranian leadership is not similarly labeledContinue reading “How the West Misunderstands Russia and Iran”

Khomeinism and Iranian Foreign Policy

Ayatollah Khomeini introduced a governing principle according to which Iranian national interests take precedence over sharia. This may seem surprising for an Islamist theocratic regime but can be observed in Iranian foreign policy for various parts of the world. Iran is completely silent on China’s Han colonization of Xinjiang and totalitarian policies of coerced assimilationContinue reading “Khomeinism and Iranian Foreign Policy”

Who is Right on Iran?

What are Iran’s intentions in Vienna? Non-Iranian intelligence agencies do not appear to know. Many weeks ago there was a flood of Israeli predictions of an imminent deal in Vienna but those fears have certainly not materialized and now even the Americans appear skeptical at the feasibility of a return to the JCPOA. I haveContinue reading “Who is Right on Iran?”

Despite Bravado Iran Fears Israel

In February 2022 Israel deployed six Israeli drones to successfully destroy hundreds of Iranian drones. It was not until now that Iran retaliated, by striking a Mossad training facility in Erbil, the capital of the KRI (Kurdistan Region of Iraq) with missiles launched from Iranian territory. This obviously represents a drastic escalation but it isContinue reading “Despite Bravado Iran Fears Israel”

It’s not About the Money

Israeli officials are somewhat hysterical in anticipation of a nuclear agreement materializing in Vienna. This of course is profoundly understandable since the JCPOA and an even worse hypothetical follow-up agreement are disastrous for Israeli security and are completely worthless as an insurance for Israeli survival. The question is however whether there will be an agreementContinue reading “It’s not About the Money”

Master Tacticians, Strategic Lunatics

Iran is tactically brilliant in always seeing opportunities to expand its influence but it must be kept in mind that it is strategically lunatic in seeking world rule for the Hidden Imam as its ultimate strategic goal. Hezbollah’s intentions have been much debated within the Israeli intelligence community. What is Hezbollah? Hezbollah is a franchiseContinue reading “Master Tacticians, Strategic Lunatics”

Iran does not Want to Defer the Apocalypse

Due to crushing UN economic sanctions did Iran agree to the JCPOA in 2015. Iran’s economic situation was such that Iran’s leaders agreed to defer the timeline of the Khomeinist apocalypse. Today in contrast there is no such incentive as Iran is able to export oil to China, and Tehran rightly sees no economic benefitContinue reading “Iran does not Want to Defer the Apocalypse”

The Approaching Apocalypse

Khomeinism is different from all other forms of Islamism in that it constitutes an apocalyptic death cult. No other sect of Islamism believes that the end of days is close in time. However, Khomeinism has no fixed date for the apocalypse which is somewhat flexible in time. The general understanding is that eschatological time wasContinue reading “The Approaching Apocalypse”

Regionwide War and Global Terror

Iran does not fear America which it considers bruised by war and defeated by international Jihadism. In the Khomeinist Weltanschauung is Israel merely one of the tentacles of the “worldwide” American-Jewish “octopus” and so Tehran believes that Jerusalem cannot independently decide on destroying Iran’s nuclear weapons program without a green light from Washington. Therefore willContinue reading “Regionwide War and Global Terror”

Imperialist Plans of Expansionism

Iran, China and Russia are all neo-imperialist powers and they intend to geographically expand in accordance with their respective geostrategic master plans. America in contrast which is no empire and has no imperialist designs has no master plan across presidencies for its foreign policy since every new president in the 21st century has devised hisContinue reading “Imperialist Plans of Expansionism”

Will Tehran use Biological Weapons?

While it is clear that Iran intends to use chemical weapons for mass terrorist attacks worldwide, on a vast scale following America’s and Israel’s joint destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons progam, the Khomeinist regime’s intentions to use biological weapons are more localized and may seem less obvious. Where and against whom will Tehran useContinue reading “Will Tehran use Biological Weapons?”

Apocalyptic Iran

Iran’s main designated adversaries are the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia. The notion of the United States as an implacable enemy of the Islamic Republic of Iran is based on Islamist Anti-Semitic conspiracy theory according to which the US is the center of the “Jewish conspiracy” to destroy Islam. The notion of Jews andContinue reading “Apocalyptic Iran”

Israel Underestimates Iranian Threat

Israel has a track record of underestimating the nefariousness of Iran’s intentions. Israeli intelligence until recently believed that Tehran was interested in a nuclear agreement with the United States. Until recently did senior Israeli military experts believe that Iran would not order Hezbollah to launch a frontal attack against Israeli cities with 150 000 rocketsContinue reading “Israel Underestimates Iranian Threat”

Establishing Global Theocratic Rule of the Hidden Imam

While this may seem strange is the theocratic establishment of the “global rule of the Hidden Imam” an official geostrategic goal of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Iranian regime is seriously convinced that the Iranian Islamist revolution constitutes an eschatological process that will culminate in Iranian world rule. This may seem detached from reality,Continue reading “Establishing Global Theocratic Rule of the Hidden Imam”

Iran’s Levantine Calculus

Iran approaches nuclear threshold status and Israel prepares to launch preemptive strikes against its nuclear weapons program. Will then Iran order Hezbollah to attack the city of Tel Aviv in response to Israel’s preemptive strikes? If Hezbollah does not launch barrages of missiles against the city of Tel Aviv will it effectively have become strategicallyContinue reading “Iran’s Levantine Calculus”

Tehran is not Interested in Reconciliation

There is a failure in the current class of Iran experts in ascertaining Iran’s strategic intentions. There is generally a failure in academia of experts on Islamism who do not grasp that we are dealing with a dangerous neo-imperialist, totalitarian, modern political ideology, but rather seem to think that Islamism is “a traditional religion”, “aContinue reading “Tehran is not Interested in Reconciliation”

Why Iran wants Nuclear Weapons

It is peculiar why so-called “anti-imperialists” are not concerned with Tehran’s clearly neo-imperial ambitions. Rather, “Anti-Imperialism” was a Soviet propaganda discourse closely connected to yet another Soviet propaganda discourse, namely “Anti-Zionism”. In fact, Soviet propaganda often mentioned “Anti-Imperialism and “Anti-Zionism” in one breath as if they were one. The Islamic Republic of Iran is oneContinue reading “Why Iran wants Nuclear Weapons”