USA President Donald J. Trump is known as an astute politician who is aware of the risks of WWIII and understands the need to avoid it. Unfortunately, US policy in recent months has served to exacerbate the risks of WWIII and therefore also the use of tactical nuclear weapons. It is abundantly clear that President Trump intends to pull the US out of NATO. Even if he does not have the votes in the US Senate to leave the NATO treaty, it is clear that he intends for all practical purposes to leave NATO and absolve the United States of its obligations under Article 5 that requires mutual defense in the event of aggression against a member state.
Under this administration, US Ukraine policy (appeasing the aggressor) and now also US Greenland policy (becoming the aggressor by invading a NATO member state) have actually exacerbated the risks of WWIII happening. What are the risks of WWIII taking place in Europe? Tremendous, in fact the US believes it is so dangerous that it plans to abandon its European allies to avoid the US becoming targeted in a Russian nuclear attack.
Now it could be argued that this is just an America First policy. That’s true but it is also a display of weakness and increases the risk of WWIII taking place in Europe which is inconsistent with the Trump policy of seeking peace and avoiding armed conflict around the world including in Europe. Then what should the US policy be on avoiding WWIII altogether?
First, let’s make clear that Russia intends to invade the EU once it has conquered Ukraine. US policy should therefore be to defeat Russia in Ukraine by recognizing the entire sovereign Ukraine as part of the US zone of influence. This is the only way to delay and ultimately avoid WWIII. Current US policy on Ukraine and Greenland actually harms US interests by making WWIII likelier and sooner. However, the US is right in principle to pull out of NATO, WWIII is not America’s war and it is not in America’s interest to fight it. However, WWIII must be avoided as long as possible so that Europe has time and opportunity to build up its defenses and thus is able to avoid WWIII altogether through robust deterrence.
There is no question that the US display of a curious combination of myopia, weakness, aggression and appeasement has shedded US deterrence and increased the risk of WWIII in Europe which is a threat against American interests as a Russian Europe would threaten US global hegemony, not to speak of US territorial integrity itself as a Putin-led Eurasian Empire would no doubt want to conquer North America as well so as to make Moscow even stronger against a China which seeks to conquer all thinly populated areas around the world and settle them with Han Chinese.
America needs to recalibrate its European policy so as to better defend American national security interests.