A Colossal Intelligence Failure

The Western intelligence community operates on the assumption that Iran is interested in returning to the JCPOA. Yet, no matter how many times this false belief has been discredited by persistent Iranian rejectionism, the Western intelligence community has clung to this patently false belief. If Iran was motivated primarily by economic imperatives then surely notContinue reading “A Colossal Intelligence Failure”

Nothing Except Military Action Will Stop Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program

There was a disagreement during the meeting in Israel between President Biden and Prime Minister Lapid on the question of Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Prime Minister Lapid insisted that only deterrence would persuade Iran to sign a nuclear agreement while President Biden insisted that diplomacy was still the best way forward. Both are wrong sinceContinue reading “Nothing Except Military Action Will Stop Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program”

President Biden Should Hire Jared Kushner

While it is certainly legitimate to be critical of the Trump administration, what is indisputable is Jared Kushner’s vital role in advancing normalization between Israel and Muslim nations. Jared Kushner gained tremendous trust in the Muslim world, including in Riyadh and when the Biden administration came into office the wave of normalization came to anContinue reading “President Biden Should Hire Jared Kushner”

America, Israel and Iran – A Reality Check

The reality that most do not want to acknowledge is that the Khomeinist leadership in Iran for their own reasons simply do not want to return to the JCPOA and they are not interested in any alternative agreement either. Any viable agreement would have to have bipartisan support and be acceptable to Israel and itsContinue reading “America, Israel and Iran – A Reality Check”

The US Needs to Provide Incentives to Saudi Arabia

In 2021 Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman al-Saud made a generous offer to US National Security Advisory Jake Sullivan. MBS offered to normalize relations with Israel in return for a list of demands for so-called “incentives” (i.e. security guarantees and weapons sales). The Americans not only inexplicably turned down the generous offer but apparently rudelyContinue reading “The US Needs to Provide Incentives to Saudi Arabia”

Saudi Arabia is Indispensable to the New Regional Security Architecture

Iran is engaged in a concerted military expansion of its military assets in the Middle East, including missiles and drones. The State of Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia are the two most important pillars in the emerging new regional security architecture in the Middle East in particular and in Islamdom at large. Yet,Continue reading “Saudi Arabia is Indispensable to the New Regional Security Architecture”

Who is Right on Iran?

What are Iran’s intentions in Vienna? Non-Iranian intelligence agencies do not appear to know. Many weeks ago there was a flood of Israeli predictions of an imminent deal in Vienna but those fears have certainly not materialized and now even the Americans appear skeptical at the feasibility of a return to the JCPOA. I haveContinue reading “Who is Right on Iran?”

MBS is Awaiting the Return of Trump

American-Saudi relations are in a state of deep freeze. Riyadh refuses to heed Washington’s appeals for increased oil production and MBS refuses to speak with Biden after the president recently ended his yearlong boycott against the crown prince. MBS has apparently concluded that Biden is an enemy of Saudi Arabia in all but name andContinue reading “MBS is Awaiting the Return of Trump”

It’s not About Ukraine – It’s About Europe

Russian propaganda has been successful in spreading the misconception that the current conflict is about Ukraine. Baltic governments have been consistently warning that the invasion of Ukraine is merely the opening salvo of WWIII. This is a classical war of imperial conquest. Russian propaganda claims that Europe is interested in conquering Russian wealth but thisContinue reading “It’s not About Ukraine – It’s About Europe”

Inside the Mind of Vladimir Putin

There has been a wide range of attempts to pathologize Russian president Vladimir Putin to explain the Ukraine war. It is surprising that otherwise rational and highly educated observers assume that the Russian system suddenly operates without an elaborate strategy. Putin’s Russia has always been similar in its geostrategic behavior to the former Soviet Union,Continue reading “Inside the Mind of Vladimir Putin”

Normalization in Limbo

In the waning days of the Trump presidency was the world presented with a long list of Muslim countries waiting to normalize relations with Israel. However, once Trump had exited the White House, the process came to an abrupt end and no more Muslim countries have so far normalized relations with Israel during the BidenContinue reading “Normalization in Limbo”

It’s not About the Money

Israeli officials are somewhat hysterical in anticipation of a nuclear agreement materializing in Vienna. This of course is profoundly understandable since the JCPOA and an even worse hypothetical follow-up agreement are disastrous for Israeli security and are completely worthless as an insurance for Israeli survival. The question is however whether there will be an agreementContinue reading “It’s not About the Money”

Finland and Sweden Should Join NATO While They Still Can

The case of Ukraine clearly shows that staying out of NATO is not a safe option for European nations. Finland and Sweden have always opted to stay out of NATO for reasons of military strategy. An invasion of Finland and Sweden would essentially offer a detour and diversion for the Russian forces and would lengthenContinue reading “Finland and Sweden Should Join NATO While They Still Can”

The Death of the Liberal World Order

The US project of imposing a liberal world order has a long pedigree going back to US president Woodrow Wilson a century ago. The pro-democracy efforts by US President George W. Bush resulted in the Arab spring years later but failed to establish liberal democracy other than in Tunisia where it did not last. WithContinue reading “The Death of the Liberal World Order”

China or Russia cannot Substitute America’s Role in Islamdom

Why did the Biden administration discontinue the Trump administration policy of intending to devolve most of America’s superpower duties in Islamdom to Israel? There is only one answer: Suspicion that Israel will realign with China. The US nightmare scenario is that Washington would hand over most of its superpower duties in Islamdom to Jerusalem andContinue reading “China or Russia cannot Substitute America’s Role in Islamdom”

Muslim Nations are Hedging Their Bets

The Trump administration was exceptionally successful in generating normalization between Israel and Muslim nations due to the Trump policy of intending to devolve much of America’s superpower duties in Islamdom to Israel. This idea is immensely popular among governments of Islamdom for two reasons. 1) The Mossad is extremely trusted as a partner in theContinue reading “Muslim Nations are Hedging Their Bets”

Tehran’s Intention to “Annihilate America”

On January 4, 2022; Ali Fadavi, the deputy head of the IRGC explicitly threatened on Hezbollah’s al-Manar television station to “annihilate America”. The threat of extermination has long been reserved for the “Small Satan” and now Iran reveals that it plans to exterminate the “Great Satan” as well. Is this a serious threat or isContinue reading “Tehran’s Intention to “Annihilate America””

Is America Planning to Disengage from Islamdom?

Middle Eastern governments are convinced that the Biden administration is intent on continuing the Trump administration policy of disengagement from Islamdom, yet the US government denies this. Who should we believe? Assuming that the governments of the region are correct in their unanimous assessment of US intentions, a plausible explanation would then be that theContinue reading “Is America Planning to Disengage from Islamdom?”

The US is Resigned to Coming Iranian WMD Attacks

The Biden administration’s decision to blame the former Trump administration for the impending collapse of the Vienna talks is indicative of a sense of resignation in the US administration over the prospects of Iranian WMD terrorist attacks against the American homeland. This is understandable, Iranian chemical and potentially biological weapons terrorist attacks against major AmericanContinue reading “The US is Resigned to Coming Iranian WMD Attacks”

Why Iran does not Fear Invasion

Iran is convinced that General Frank McKenzie was bluffing when recently threatening a US invasion of Iran should Iran attack America. Tehran knows that the American people are tired of Middle Eastern wars and have no appetite for an invasion of Iran. Furthermore, Iran is convinced that the Biden administration despite repeatedly denying so isContinue reading “Why Iran does not Fear Invasion”

Iranian Fears

Zohar Palti, the head of the Political-Military Bureau of the Israeli Ministry of Defense and former head of the Mossad Research Department recently pointed out that Iran is no longer afraid and that there is no deterrent against Iran advancing its nuclear weapons program. What then are the implications of Iranian fears? Is it possibleContinue reading “Iranian Fears”

Apocalyptic Iran

Iran’s main designated adversaries are the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia. The notion of the United States as an implacable enemy of the Islamic Republic of Iran is based on Islamist Anti-Semitic conspiracy theory according to which the US is the center of the “Jewish conspiracy” to destroy Islam. The notion of Jews andContinue reading “Apocalyptic Iran”

Will Iran Launch a Surprise Assault?

Iran is well aware that it will be attacked but due to its belief in divine patronage does Tehran not believe that any of the insurrections will succeed after the US-led international coalition imposes a no-fly zone over Iran and provides air support to armed rebellions throughout the country. However, this does not mean thatContinue reading “Will Iran Launch a Surprise Assault?”

The Art of Building Deterrence

One year of failed appeasement policy has completely destroyed US deterrence against Iran. The notion that this can be repaired by issuing a few threats is preposterous. Public issuance of threatening statements has its place in a comprehensive deterrence posture but are on their own entirely insufficient in rebuilding America’s deterrence against Iran. Iran shouldContinue reading “The Art of Building Deterrence”

What can be Expected on Iran

The Biden administration’s hawks and doves are busy preparing the US for two parallel tracks. Even the doves are becoming aware that the JCPOA is doomed and are therefore preparing for what they imagine will be negotiations on an entirely different nuclear agreement with Iran beyond the JCPOA. The hawks are preparing Plan B withContinue reading “What can be Expected on Iran”

Appeasement Undermines Deterrence

The appeasement policy of the Democratic administration undermines America’s deterrence posture. Iran is well aware that no Democratic administration will respond with nuclear weapons to Iranian chemical weapons attacks against America and hence is America highly vulnerable to chemical weapons attacks against major American cities. President Trump was not afraid to abrogate the JCPOA sinceContinue reading “Appeasement Undermines Deterrence”

Why Iran will Continue to Stall

Iran is determined to continue to accelerate its nuclear weapons program and participation in “negotiations” is merely a means of playing for time so as to satisfy Russia and China in order to avoid UN sanctions. Iran already however has more than enough enriched uranium for one nuclear bomb but Iran is not satisfied withContinue reading “Why Iran will Continue to Stall”

Imposing a No-Fly Zone over Iran

President Joe Biden continues the Trump administration policy of disengaging from Islamdom and outsourcing its superpower responsibilities to Israel by promoting Israeli normalization with nations of Islamdom. The US is engaged in intensive diplomatic efforts to persuade nations of Islamdom to normalize relations with Israel. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has already in principleContinue reading “Imposing a No-Fly Zone over Iran”

Disengagement is not Possible Without Normalization

The Biden administration inherited from the Trump administration the concept of US disengagement from Islamdom. For the Trump administration this was contingent upon outsourcing most of the US superrole in Islamdom to Israel. Israel would defend American interests in Islamdom and the US would defend Israeli interests outside of Islamdom. That was the equation andContinue reading “Disengagement is not Possible Without Normalization”

The Rise of the two Great Powers in Islamdom

There is a growing cold war between Israel and Iran taking place in the Middle East. There has also been a parallel rise of the two countries to great power status. However, there will ultimately only be room for one great power in the Middle East and Islamdom generally. Muslim countries around the world areContinue reading “The Rise of the two Great Powers in Islamdom”

The Lack of Continuity in American Mideast Policy

President George W. Bush revolutionized American foreign policy on the Middle East and Islamdom by focusing on counter-terrorism and democratization. President Barack Obama wanted to align the US with Islamism and hand over Islamdom to the Islamists. President Donald Trump championed the idea of the US disengaging from Islamdom in subcontracting most US superpower dutiesContinue reading “The Lack of Continuity in American Mideast Policy”

The Shifting American Interest in the Middle East and Islamdom

The perception of the American interest in the Middle East is shifting. Once was the American interest in the Gulf in supporting Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states based almost entirely on the provision of oil to America by the Gulf states. America is no longer dependent on Gulf oil since America is now energyContinue reading “The Shifting American Interest in the Middle East and Islamdom”

The US Disengagement from the Middle East

The problem the US faces in the Middle East is fundamental lack of credibility. US allies do not believe in the US and Iran does not fear America. US rhetoric about “looking at other options” does not deter Iran nor does it impress US allies. After giving up Afghanistan does the US face a fundamentalContinue reading “The US Disengagement from the Middle East”

A No-Fly Zone Over Iran is a Vital US National Security Interest

Israel will destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program and the attack will likely take place in 2023. The attack would have to be repeated after less than two years and then after less than two years again. These regular attacks would go on indefinitely with intervals of less than two years so as to preventContinue reading “A No-Fly Zone Over Iran is a Vital US National Security Interest”

From Conceptzia to Victory

The term “conceptzia” (literally “conception”) in Israeli military history refers to the overarching Israeli strategic misconception about Israel’s enemies on the eve of the 1973 Yom Kippur War that they were weak and would not dare to attack Israel.  For years have Israeli strategists been hostages to another “conceptzia” about the Jihadist terrorists on Israel’sContinue reading “From Conceptzia to Victory”