Fighting til the Bitter End?

Syria has not fought a land war against Israel since 1973 in apparently since then preferring that Lebanon be the arena for Israeli-Arab armed conflict in Israel’s northern military theater. This is so since Syria for the most part has kept the Golan heights border quiet for the five decades that passed since the Yom Kippur War. The gambit of destabilizing the region and harming Israel through Lebanon is however over. 

Israel has no choice but to destroy Hezbollah and its 150 000 missile stockpile when Hezbollah rains down tens of thousands of missiles on Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities as revenge for Israel destroying the Iranian nuclear weapons program or else the Hezbollah’s missile program will develop into an existential threat against Tel Aviv, Israel’s economic capital. The IDF (Israel Defense Forces) and the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) will need to liberate both Lebanon and Syria from Khomeinist and Ba’athist occupation and establish a Christian Aramean successor state to Lebanon, Israel would annex Median Jewish (Alawite and Druze) regions of Syria and Lebanon and the new Syria would annex the remainder of Lebanon.

Will the last Ba’athist regime fight til the bitter end and lose everything in the process? It is hard to see what would be the point of that. What conceivably would be attained by fighting til the bitter end? There simply would be no point since absolutely nothing whatsoever would be attained, on the contrary, everything would be lost. 

Damascus is trying to raise war allies and Bashar al-Assad’s recent phone call with King Abdullah of Jordan should be seen in that light. Would even Iraq and Iran come to the aid of Syria? This is doubtful since their militaries would all be woefully crushed by the IDF. The Iranian military of course is already in Syria but it is doubtful if there will be large-scale Iranian military deployment in Syria in defense of the Crypto-Jewish Assad regime. Iran is likely to lose all assets that it deploys in Syria and Tehran knows it. While Iraq may come to the aid of “brotherly” Syria on account of allegedly being “Shia” in its regime, any Iraqi deployment in Syria will no doubt suffer a most sorry fate. In the end, Syria is unlikely to get military reinforcement from anyone, even from Iran. Bashar al-Assad is on his own because everyone knows that he is on the losing end of history and who would want to bet on the losing side of war?

This raises the question of whether Hezbollah will actually take revenge for Israel destroying the Iranian nuclear weapons program knowing that the consequences will be so calamitous for the allied Assad regime? The answer is most probably yes. The Iranian regime sees this as a great battle between good and evil and does not desist from engaging. Or else has Hezbollah become completely strategically meaningless. Because the moment Iran uses Hezbollah, Israel and the AANES can liberate Lebanon and Syria. On the other hand might Iran bide its time until Hezbollah has built up such a vast military potential that it can destroy Tel Aviv, Israel’s economic capital. However, Israel will not allow that and would therefore have no choice but to launch a preemptive war together with the AANES. Nevertheless, the presumption in Damascus and Moscow is apparently still that Tehran will unleash Hezbollah when Israel destroys Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Tehran is highly a rational strategic player but its rationality is delimited by its irrational apocalyptic ideology. This is an example where it is not rational. Either they reason that they are damned if they do or damned if they don’t or they are fatalistic and rely on Allah.

In either case does the situation look completely bleak for Assad with no allies coming to his rescue with the Russians no doubt opting to stay at their barracks throughout the war. Will Assad and the Alawite elite eventually recognize the bleak reality and accept a peaceful partition of Syria between Israel and the AANES (Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria)? The answer may turn out in the affirmative if there is enough international diplomacy. Thus is this very much up to the international community to prevent war and ensure a peaceful outcome. There is a diplomatic window of opportunity and it is wide open as the Assad regime literally is in a desperate situation and the only way out is a diplomatic resolution that will allow him to resettle in Tel Aviv with all his money within the framework of a peaceful partition of Syria. It should be remembered that Bashar is not Gaddafi or Saddam and this is a regime that knows that it is Jewish and has no cards left other than a diplomatic agreement with Israel and the AANES.

Fighting til the bitter end is no good option, in fact, it is no option at all.

Published by Daniella Bartfeld

Daniella Bartfeld is the founding director of the Aliyah Organization.

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