Iran’s Nuclear Calculus

Iran faces a dilemma; if it continues to accelerate its nuclear weapons program, it will be destroyed by Israel from the air in late 2022 or early 2023. If Tehran reenters the JCPOA then it will have to give up the immense advances it has made in the past year of uranium enrichment. That of course is out of the question since the accelerated uranium enrichment was a strategic decision and not a tactical one. Iran’s nuclear facilities are buried deep underground and are designed to survive aerial attacks. Thus Iran calculates that its nuclear weapons program will be able to withstand Israel’s attacks and that Iran therefore will be able to successfully develop nuclear weapons. Israeli intelligence has profoundly penetrated Iran and has of course detailed knowledge of those underground facilities and makes a different assessment, namely that it will be able to destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program – or the Israeli government would not order those very preemptive strikes against the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Many wars throughout history have been caused by two sides making differing assessments of the respective defensive/offensive strength of the other side and this is one of those occasions. In the meantime will Iran continue to play for time so as to avoid the restoration of UN sanctions which is something that Tehran genuinely fears.