A Confederal Iran Protects the US National Interest

The United States made the mistake of not early partitioning Afghanistan according to language (between Turkmenistan – Turkmen language, Uzbekistan – Uzbek language, Tajikistan – Persian language and Pakistan – Pashto language) and similarly made the mistake of not early partitioning Iraq, granting independence to the three main ethnic regions (the Shias, the Sunnis and the Kurds). However in order to prevent regional instability is the confederal model suitable for Iran. Why is this so? The confederal model means that there will be fixed borders in the confederal union at the same time as each one of the constituent member states will have the freedom to peacefully leave the union if its people so decides. 

It is essential that boundaries be drawn strictly according to linguistic lines and that all languages large enough to organize states of their own be granted their own states within the union. Will most member states choose to leave the confederation? Indeed most probably so, but at least there will be clear delineated boundaries between the states that will become fair undisputed international borders. Linguistic lines becoming international borders will crucially prevent future international conflict. The post-WWI experience shows how unfair boundaries between linguistic states can breed international conflict. 

After an international coalition has imposed a no-fly zone over Iran and provided air support to armed rebellions throughout Iran, the uprising in Persian areas may nevertheless fail despite succeeding in the ethnic periphery and so we may find ourselves with a similar partition map yet without formal internal boundaries. It is essential that the United States helps groom leadership for the new governments that in any case will be formed in the minority regions. 

However, in order to make the insurrection succeed in Persian areas as well is it essential to assemble the widest possible international coalition and it is hence vital that the United States government as soon as possible takes a leading part in building the international coalition. Nevertheless, the United States must prepare for all scenarios, including that the US due the Iranian WMD threat against the American homeland will be forced to liberate Persia (Iran without the ethnic periphery) and then quickly leave after having put a new confederal order in place. In that scenario would it be essential to destroy the IRGC but to cooperate with the defeated Iranian military.

If however the insurrection succeeds throughout the entire Iran is a confederal Iran even so the most viable framework for ensuring regional stability and preventing ethnic conflict. The non-Persians will not accept restored Persian domination and continued Persianization and thus decentralization through a confederal framework will crucially prevent conflict among the peoples of Iran. (Persians are only 45% of the population.) It is important that the US uses its influence with the Iranian opposition in due time to diplomatically and politically win support for a confederal Iran or else there may in a worst-case scenario be civil war in Iran.

Irrespective of which scenario that eventually materializes is a confederal Iran with fair agreed internal linguistic boundaries a national interest of the United States. It is essential for there to be a clear exit strategy for this conflict and a confederal Iran provides the framework for such an exit strategy that defends vital US national security interests and ensures regional stability.

Published by Daniella Bartfeld

Daniella Bartfeld is the founding director of the Aliyah Organization.

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