Iran remains focused on capturing the MENA region and the current detente whereby Iran seeks to rival Israel’s intended regional integration and furthermore engage in regional intelligence infiltration is a mere phase in Tehran’s great plan for conquering the Arab world. While preparing for the Northern War against Israel, is Iran trying to compete withContinue reading “A US Mideast Defense Strategy”
Tag Archives: WMD
A Joint Iran Operation is Pivotal for American Deterrence
The first lesson from Ramadan this year is that Israel does not control the pulse in the Levant, Iran does. What is the strategic reality in terms of deterrence? Israel does not believe that Iran will dare use chemical weapons against the Jewish state or Israel would be distributing gas masks, thus Israeli non-conventional deterrenceContinue reading “A Joint Iran Operation is Pivotal for American Deterrence”
Perceived US Weakness Invites “Death of America”
The Biden administration needs to formulate a strategy of strength vis-a-vis Iran. Why is that so? Because of Iran’s intention to implement ”Death of America”, namely Iran’s plan to attack major American cities with biological weapons during the Russo-Iranian WWIII against Europe and the MENA region. What can the US do? Perception of strength isContinue reading “Perceived US Weakness Invites “Death of America””
America Needs Strategic Focus in Mideast Policy
As the Biden administration has finally concluded that the JCPOA is off the table, the US needs a coherent and focused strategy in the Middle East to protect US national security. Iran with its WMD terrorist networks poses the greatest threat to American national security and so it is essential to contain and deter IranContinue reading “America Needs Strategic Focus in Mideast Policy”
Why is Tehran Training for a US-led Naval Invasion of Iran?
Iran regards the sole threat to its territory as coming from the Persian Gulf; i.e. from a US-led naval invasion of Iran and is actively training to counter this perceived threat. However, on the face of it, this seems utterly implausible in the extreme. Why would the United States want to get entangled in yetContinue reading “Why is Tehran Training for a US-led Naval Invasion of Iran?”
On the Need for a Counter-Strategy to Iranian Mahdism
There is a profound strategic problem with respect to how Washington and Jerusalem deal with Tehran. Iran is no less motivated by Mahdism in its neo-imperialist strategy than the Soviet Union was motivated by Marxism-Leninism in its own imperialist strategy. Yet Washington and Jerusalem in their respective public rhetoric do not give any hint ofContinue reading “On the Need for a Counter-Strategy to Iranian Mahdism”
How Iran is Instigating War
Why would Iran want a war in the Levant now? This is an excellent question that requires some elaboration. Iran is moderately convinced that Israel and America are deterred by Iranian weapons of mass destruction and will not dare to destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program. However, Tehran is less certain when it comes toContinue reading “How Iran is Instigating War”
Nothing Except Military Action Will Stop Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program
There was a disagreement during the meeting in Israel between President Biden and Prime Minister Lapid on the question of Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Prime Minister Lapid insisted that only deterrence would persuade Iran to sign a nuclear agreement while President Biden insisted that diplomacy was still the best way forward. Both are wrong sinceContinue reading “Nothing Except Military Action Will Stop Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program”
A Bipartisan Strategy for Great Power Competition for the Next 50 Years
There is not much disagreement between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party on Russia and China and there won’t be on Iran once the negotiation track is definitely declared dead. What is needed is a threepronged bipartisan global strategy for the next 50 years. Russia, China and Iran each require a unique strategy ofContinue reading “A Bipartisan Strategy for Great Power Competition for the Next 50 Years”
Can Iran’s Apocalyptic Scheme be Thwarted?
If Iran did not believe that Iranian territorial control over the Twelver eschatological region was essential for the success of the planned Khomeinist man-made apocalypse as intended to prompt the reappearance of the Hidden Imam in Mecca, then surely Iran would not be so geostrategically obsessed with taking control over this region where the threeContinue reading “Can Iran’s Apocalyptic Scheme be Thwarted?”
Iran’s Window of Opportunity
Iranian senior officials openly and publicly state that their overarching strategy is to prompt the reappearance of the Hidden Imam in Mecca leading to global Khomeinist theocratic rule. One crucial factor which is closing the window on Iranian eschatological imperialism is however the advent of electric vehicles. The electric vehicle industry has changed much sinceContinue reading “Iran’s Window of Opportunity”
The Saudis are No Suckers
The US-Saudi relationship was always based on oil in return for security. There were those Americans who lately mistakenly presumed that the United States no longer needed Saudi Arabia. This is wrong. The US will need the KSA as a staging ground for any military action against Iran after Tehran lashes out against the outsideContinue reading “The Saudis are No Suckers”
We Need to Defend the Oil Wells
The Middle East and the world will be in great danger following Israel and America’s inevitable destruction of Iran’s nuclear weapon’s program as Iran will not under any circumstances be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons capability. Twelver Sharia forbids offensive war and for the ruling mullahs in Iran is the American-Israeli destruction of the nuclearContinue reading “We Need to Defend the Oil Wells”
Inside Iran’s Expansionist Mindset
Twelver Shia theology prohibits offensive war but Khomeinists believe it allows terrorism which it peculiarly construes as defensive, so-called “resistance”. Khomeinist Iran has so far engaged in regional expansionism through proxies, i.e. Shiite militias. Iran also maintains a close relationship with the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood everywhere but in Syria, which is also expressed in Iran’sContinue reading “Inside Iran’s Expansionist Mindset”
Strategic Deterrence will Fail
“We have told the world we are not willing to take it anymore,” he said. “Iran says we can bring the war to your doorstep, because you will never bring it to ours. This is not going to happen. This is not how it’s going to play. I understand why they felt that this isContinue reading “Strategic Deterrence will Fail”
Why Hezbollah Will Attack Israel
There are multiple reasons why Hezbollah and its allies in the Iranian axis in the Middle East will engage in a frontal assault on Israel after Israel and the US destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program once so-called “negotiations” have become completely exhausted. 1. The Iranian regime systematically states that this will happen if theContinue reading “Why Hezbollah Will Attack Israel”
The Approaching Khomeinist Apocalypse
“I am decisely announcing to the whole world that if the world-devourers [the infidel powers] wish to stand against our religion, we will stand against the whole world and will not cease until the annihilation of all of them. Either we all become free, or we will go to the greater freedom, which is martyrdom.Continue reading “The Approaching Khomeinist Apocalypse”
The Danger of Preemptive Apocalypse
Tehran is currently moderately convinced that America and Israel will not dare to destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program. This is one of the reasons for its rejectionism in Vienna. Nevertheless, on Quds Day, Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah threatened that Iran might attack Israel directly if Israeli sabotage operations against the Iranian nuclear weapons programContinue reading “The Danger of Preemptive Apocalypse”
Russia Will not Use WMD in Ukraine
There have been warnings that Russia could use weapons of mass destruction in Ukraine. However, a simple cost-benefit analysis reveals that Russia has nothing to gain from using WMD in Ukraine. There would be no “Japanese effect” as the Ukrainians would not capitulate, rather would this if anything have the opposite effect in further galvanizingContinue reading “Russia Will not Use WMD in Ukraine”
Khomeinism and Iranian Foreign Policy
Ayatollah Khomeini introduced a governing principle according to which Iranian national interests take precedence over sharia. This may seem surprising for an Islamist theocratic regime but can be observed in Iranian foreign policy for various parts of the world. Iran is completely silent on China’s Han colonization of Xinjiang and totalitarian policies of coerced assimilationContinue reading “Khomeinism and Iranian Foreign Policy”
Master Tacticians, Strategic Lunatics
Iran is tactically brilliant in always seeing opportunities to expand its influence but it must be kept in mind that it is strategically lunatic in seeking world rule for the Hidden Imam as its ultimate strategic goal. Hezbollah’s intentions have been much debated within the Israeli intelligence community. What is Hezbollah? Hezbollah is a franchiseContinue reading “Master Tacticians, Strategic Lunatics”
Iran does not Want to Defer the Apocalypse
Due to crushing UN economic sanctions did Iran agree to the JCPOA in 2015. Iran’s economic situation was such that Iran’s leaders agreed to defer the timeline of the Khomeinist apocalypse. Today in contrast there is no such incentive as Iran is able to export oil to China, and Tehran rightly sees no economic benefitContinue reading “Iran does not Want to Defer the Apocalypse”
The Approaching Apocalypse
Khomeinism is different from all other forms of Islamism in that it constitutes an apocalyptic death cult. No other sect of Islamism believes that the end of days is close in time. However, Khomeinism has no fixed date for the apocalypse which is somewhat flexible in time. The general understanding is that eschatological time wasContinue reading “The Approaching Apocalypse”
Regionwide War and Global Terror
Iran does not fear America which it considers bruised by war and defeated by international Jihadism. In the Khomeinist Weltanschauung is Israel merely one of the tentacles of the “worldwide” American-Jewish “octopus” and so Tehran believes that Jerusalem cannot independently decide on destroying Iran’s nuclear weapons program without a green light from Washington. Therefore willContinue reading “Regionwide War and Global Terror”
The Biden Administration has a Communication Problem
Why is the Biden administration so widely perceived as “weak”? It began with Donald Trump labeling Joe Biden as “Sleepy Joe” in 2020. Republicans subsequently came to widely characterize Joe Biden as “weak”. Then came the disastrous collapse in Afghanistan and the chaotic American pullout which left hundreds of thousands behind who urgently needed toContinue reading “The Biden Administration has a Communication Problem”
How to Make the US-Israel Relationship Last Forever
How can the US-Israel relationship be so reinforced that it becomes unbreakable as both America and Israel fear being abandoned by the other in the long-term? There is a consensus among Middle Eastern governments that the United States intends to disengage from Islamdom and the US implausibly denies this despite the stated ambition to focusContinue reading “How to Make the US-Israel Relationship Last Forever”
Tehran’s Intention to “Annihilate America”
On January 4, 2022; Ali Fadavi, the deputy head of the IRGC explicitly threatened on Hezbollah’s al-Manar television station to “annihilate America”. The threat of extermination has long been reserved for the “Small Satan” and now Iran reveals that it plans to exterminate the “Great Satan” as well. Is this a serious threat or isContinue reading “Tehran’s Intention to “Annihilate America””
The US Must Clarify on Disengagement from Islamdom
The US suffers from a global credibility deficit. America’s adversaries no longer fear the United States and Middle Eastern allies of the United States are all convinced that the US intends to disengage from Islamdom, yet the US denies this. Iran calculates that in the event of the US and Israel destroying the Iranian nuclearContinue reading “The US Must Clarify on Disengagement from Islamdom”
Chemical Genocide
Iranian officials constantly repeat their intention to “annihilate Israel” and say that “Israel will be destroyed” if it attacks the Iranian nuclear weapons program. What does the regime mean? They are referring to the mass use of chemical weapons against Israeli cities. Iran is convinced that Israel and the United States are bluffing and thatContinue reading “Chemical Genocide”
Why Israel Must Keep its Options Open
There has been tremendous mistrust between the Biden administration and the Israeli government on account of Israel’s strategic intentions vis-a-vis China and America’s strategic intentions vis-a-vis Iran. Israel now understands that there will be no nuclear deal with Iran because Tehran has no interest in such an agreement. The US and Israel are jointly trainingContinue reading “Why Israel Must Keep its Options Open”
Is America Planning to Disengage from Islamdom?
Middle Eastern governments are convinced that the Biden administration is intent on continuing the Trump administration policy of disengagement from Islamdom, yet the US government denies this. Who should we believe? Assuming that the governments of the region are correct in their unanimous assessment of US intentions, a plausible explanation would then be that theContinue reading “Is America Planning to Disengage from Islamdom?”
The US Perception, Credibility and Deterrence Problem
The US has a problem with credibility and thus also with deterrence. This is largely a perception problem based on the erroneous view that the current US administration is afraid of war. However, the Biden administration does not seem to understand that the position of the US as regards one region affects US credibility inContinue reading “The US Perception, Credibility and Deterrence Problem”
Taking Iran Seriously
Iranian leaders continue to state that they will “destroy Israel” in the next war. What they mean is that they intend to implement the American military doctrine of Rapid Dominance (Shock and Awe). They intend to use their full rocket/missile/drone power, including a maximum number fitted with chemical weapons, to inflict massive physical and genocidalContinue reading “Taking Iran Seriously”
NATO Must Stand with Ukraine
Russia continues its buildup of forces alongside the border with Ukraine. This is the test of the success of US deterrence. If US economic deterrence were successful would Russia surely discontinue its military buildup near Ukraine. US intelligence has provided proof that Russia plans false flag operations in the rebel regions of eastern Ukraine asContinue reading “NATO Must Stand with Ukraine”
Iran’s List of Target Countries
The Houthi drone terrorist attack against Abu Dhabi as praised by Tehran illustrates that efforts to stay out of the US-led Iran coalition will not give anyone immunity from Iranian WMD mass terrorist attacks after Israel and the United States destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program. The UAE has made it a point to officiallyContinue reading “Iran’s List of Target Countries”
Does Iran Believe That it Will Make Israel Collapse?
Iran claims that its assault on Israel with rockets, missiles, chemical warheads and drones from Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran and Yemen will make Israel collapse. Do they actually believe this or is it just propaganda hyperbole? What is clear is that the Israeli home front will suffer immensely as a result of the assaultContinue reading “Does Iran Believe That it Will Make Israel Collapse?”
The US is Resigned to Coming Iranian WMD Attacks
The Biden administration’s decision to blame the former Trump administration for the impending collapse of the Vienna talks is indicative of a sense of resignation in the US administration over the prospects of Iranian WMD terrorist attacks against the American homeland. This is understandable, Iranian chemical and potentially biological weapons terrorist attacks against major AmericanContinue reading “The US is Resigned to Coming Iranian WMD Attacks”
Tehran’s Confidence in Terrorist Deterrence
Iran has expressed the assessment that Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett’s new policy of avoiding publicly threatening Iran and instead focusing on building Israel’s defensive and offensive capabilities vis-a-vis Iran and its proxies is evidence that Iran has succeeded in deterring Israel. The Iranian representative claimed that Iran has an effective deterrence capacity against “emptyContinue reading “Tehran’s Confidence in Terrorist Deterrence”
Why Iran does not Fear Invasion
Iran is convinced that General Frank McKenzie was bluffing when recently threatening a US invasion of Iran should Iran attack America. Tehran knows that the American people are tired of Middle Eastern wars and have no appetite for an invasion of Iran. Furthermore, Iran is convinced that the Biden administration despite repeatedly denying so isContinue reading “Why Iran does not Fear Invasion”
Iranian Fears
Zohar Palti, the head of the Political-Military Bureau of the Israeli Ministry of Defense and former head of the Mossad Research Department recently pointed out that Iran is no longer afraid and that there is no deterrent against Iran advancing its nuclear weapons program. What then are the implications of Iranian fears? Is it possibleContinue reading “Iranian Fears”
Will Tehran use Biological Weapons?
While it is clear that Iran intends to use chemical weapons for mass terrorist attacks worldwide, on a vast scale following America’s and Israel’s joint destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons progam, the Khomeinist regime’s intentions to use biological weapons are more localized and may seem less obvious. Where and against whom will Tehran useContinue reading “Will Tehran use Biological Weapons?”
Iran’s Best Asset
The complexity involved in understanding the Khomeinist regime tends to lead to benevolent caricatures of the regime in severely underestimating the malevolence of Iran’s intentions. Intelligence agencies generally assume that Iran is rational without taking into account how irrational factors (Khomeinist theology, Anti-Semitism and Middle Eastern political culture) influence Iranian decision making processes. As theContinue reading “Iran’s Best Asset”
Apocalyptic Iran
Iran’s main designated adversaries are the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia. The notion of the United States as an implacable enemy of the Islamic Republic of Iran is based on Islamist Anti-Semitic conspiracy theory according to which the US is the center of the “Jewish conspiracy” to destroy Islam. The notion of Jews andContinue reading “Apocalyptic Iran”
Imperialism is the Greatest Threat
Totalitarian enemies of America whether Communist or Islamist typically describe democratic America as “imperialist”. Of course there is no American empire. America does not dominate other independent nations, like almost every other nation it aligns with foreign nations to promote its own interests. What is unique however about America is that it constantly across presidentialContinue reading “Imperialism is the Greatest Threat”
Will Iran Launch a Surprise Assault?
Iran is well aware that it will be attacked but due to its belief in divine patronage does Tehran not believe that any of the insurrections will succeed after the US-led international coalition imposes a no-fly zone over Iran and provides air support to armed rebellions throughout the country. However, this does not mean thatContinue reading “Will Iran Launch a Surprise Assault?”
The Khomeinist Regime is Becoming Nervous
The Khomeinist regime makes increasingly extreme threats against Israel. Why is this so? The regime is no doubt becoming increasingly nervous about the imposition of an international no-fly zone over Iran that would provide air support to armed rebellions throughout the country and very likely lead to the downfall of the regime. The emerging coalitionContinue reading “The Khomeinist Regime is Becoming Nervous”
What can be Expected on Iran
The Biden administration’s hawks and doves are busy preparing the US for two parallel tracks. Even the doves are becoming aware that the JCPOA is doomed and are therefore preparing for what they imagine will be negotiations on an entirely different nuclear agreement with Iran beyond the JCPOA. The hawks are preparing Plan B withContinue reading “What can be Expected on Iran”
Endless Negotiations are Back on the Table
An interview with US Iran envoy Rob Malley on CNN informs us that the Malley doctrine of endless negotiations is back and the Blinken doctrine of opposition to endless negotiations is dead, or at least so far the moment. Malley, the notorious appeaser of Islamists, is convinced that Iran is advancing its hugely expensive nuclearContinue reading “Endless Negotiations are Back on the Table”
Establishing Global Theocratic Rule of the Hidden Imam
While this may seem strange is the theocratic establishment of the “global rule of the Hidden Imam” an official geostrategic goal of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Iranian regime is seriously convinced that the Iranian Islamist revolution constitutes an eschatological process that will culminate in Iranian world rule. This may seem detached from reality,Continue reading “Establishing Global Theocratic Rule of the Hidden Imam”
Ukrainian NATO Accession is a Vital American National Security Interest
The Ukraine crisis is testing the Biden administration. The Russian buildup of military forces east of Ukraine illustrates the peril of not expanding NATO. Yet, the United States is effectively only threatening financial sanctions against Russia, or at least that is the general perception. The crisis illustrates that further NATO expansion eastwards should be anContinue reading “Ukrainian NATO Accession is a Vital American National Security Interest”
Aliyah Organization 