Why Hezbollah Will Attack Israel

There are multiple reasons why Hezbollah and its allies in the Iranian axis in the Middle East will engage in a frontal assault on Israel after Israel and the US destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program once so-called “negotiations” have become completely exhausted. 1. The Iranian regime systematically states that this will happen if theContinue reading “Why Hezbollah Will Attack Israel”

The Approaching Khomeinist Apocalypse

“I am decisely announcing to the whole world that if the world-devourers [the infidel powers] wish to stand against our religion, we will stand against the whole world and will not cease until the annihilation of all of them. Either we all become free, or we will go to the greater freedom, which is martyrdom.Continue reading “The Approaching Khomeinist Apocalypse”

The Danger of Preemptive Apocalypse

Tehran is currently moderately convinced that America and Israel will not dare to destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program. This is one of the reasons for its rejectionism in Vienna. Nevertheless, on Quds Day, Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah threatened that Iran might attack Israel directly if Israeli sabotage operations against the Iranian nuclear weapons programContinue reading “The Danger of Preemptive Apocalypse”

Russia Will not Use WMD in Ukraine

There have been warnings that Russia could use weapons of mass destruction in Ukraine. However, a simple cost-benefit analysis reveals that Russia has nothing to gain from using WMD in Ukraine. There would be no “Japanese effect” as the Ukrainians would not capitulate, rather would this if anything have the opposite effect in further galvanizingContinue reading “Russia Will not Use WMD in Ukraine”

Khomeinism and Iranian Foreign Policy

Ayatollah Khomeini introduced a governing principle according to which Iranian national interests take precedence over sharia. This may seem surprising for an Islamist theocratic regime but can be observed in Iranian foreign policy for various parts of the world. Iran is completely silent on China’s Han colonization of Xinjiang and totalitarian policies of coerced assimilationContinue reading “Khomeinism and Iranian Foreign Policy”

Master Tacticians, Strategic Lunatics

Iran is tactically brilliant in always seeing opportunities to expand its influence but it must be kept in mind that it is strategically lunatic in seeking world rule for the Hidden Imam as its ultimate strategic goal. Hezbollah’s intentions have been much debated within the Israeli intelligence community. What is Hezbollah? Hezbollah is a franchiseContinue reading “Master Tacticians, Strategic Lunatics”

Iran does not Want to Defer the Apocalypse

Due to crushing UN economic sanctions did Iran agree to the JCPOA in 2015. Iran’s economic situation was such that Iran’s leaders agreed to defer the timeline of the Khomeinist apocalypse. Today in contrast there is no such incentive as Iran is able to export oil to China, and Tehran rightly sees no economic benefitContinue reading “Iran does not Want to Defer the Apocalypse”

The Approaching Apocalypse

Khomeinism is different from all other forms of Islamism in that it constitutes an apocalyptic death cult. No other sect of Islamism believes that the end of days is close in time. However, Khomeinism has no fixed date for the apocalypse which is somewhat flexible in time. The general understanding is that eschatological time wasContinue reading “The Approaching Apocalypse”

Regionwide War and Global Terror

Iran does not fear America which it considers bruised by war and defeated by international Jihadism. In the Khomeinist Weltanschauung is Israel merely one of the tentacles of the “worldwide” American-Jewish “octopus” and so Tehran believes that Jerusalem cannot independently decide on destroying Iran’s nuclear weapons program without a green light from Washington. Therefore willContinue reading “Regionwide War and Global Terror”

The Biden Administration has a Communication Problem

Why is the Biden administration so widely perceived as “weak”? It began with Donald Trump labeling Joe Biden as “Sleepy Joe” in 2020. Republicans subsequently came to widely characterize Joe Biden as “weak”. Then came the disastrous collapse in Afghanistan and the chaotic American pullout which left hundreds of thousands behind who urgently needed toContinue reading “The Biden Administration has a Communication Problem”

How to Make the US-Israel Relationship Last Forever

How can the US-Israel relationship be so reinforced that it becomes unbreakable as both America and Israel fear being abandoned by the other in the long-term? There is a consensus among Middle Eastern governments that the United States intends to disengage from Islamdom and the US implausibly denies this despite the stated ambition to focusContinue reading “How to Make the US-Israel Relationship Last Forever”

Tehran’s Intention to “Annihilate America”

On January 4, 2022; Ali Fadavi, the deputy head of the IRGC explicitly threatened on Hezbollah’s al-Manar television station to “annihilate America”. The threat of extermination has long been reserved for the “Small Satan” and now Iran reveals that it plans to exterminate the “Great Satan” as well. Is this a serious threat or isContinue reading “Tehran’s Intention to “Annihilate America””

The US Must Clarify on Disengagement from Islamdom

The US suffers from a global credibility deficit. America’s adversaries no longer fear the United States and Middle Eastern allies of the United States are all convinced that the US intends to disengage from Islamdom, yet the US denies this. Iran calculates that in the event of the US and Israel destroying the Iranian nuclearContinue reading “The US Must Clarify on Disengagement from Islamdom”

Chemical Genocide

Iranian officials constantly repeat their intention to “annihilate Israel” and say that “Israel will be destroyed” if it attacks the Iranian nuclear weapons program. What does the regime mean? They are referring to the mass use of chemical weapons against Israeli cities. Iran is convinced that Israel and the United States are bluffing and thatContinue reading “Chemical Genocide”

Why Israel Must Keep its Options Open

There has been tremendous mistrust between the Biden administration and the Israeli government on account of Israel’s strategic intentions vis-a-vis China and America’s strategic intentions vis-a-vis Iran. Israel now understands that there will be no nuclear deal with Iran because Tehran has no interest in such an agreement. The US and Israel are jointly trainingContinue reading “Why Israel Must Keep its Options Open”

Is America Planning to Disengage from Islamdom?

Middle Eastern governments are convinced that the Biden administration is intent on continuing the Trump administration policy of disengagement from Islamdom, yet the US government denies this. Who should we believe? Assuming that the governments of the region are correct in their unanimous assessment of US intentions, a plausible explanation would then be that theContinue reading “Is America Planning to Disengage from Islamdom?”

The US Perception, Credibility and Deterrence Problem

The US has a problem with credibility and thus also with deterrence. This is largely a perception problem based on the erroneous view that the current US administration is afraid of war. However, the Biden administration does not seem to understand that the position of the US as regards one region affects US credibility inContinue reading “The US Perception, Credibility and Deterrence Problem”

Taking Iran Seriously

Iranian leaders continue to state that they will “destroy Israel” in the next war. What they mean is that they intend to implement the American military doctrine of Rapid Dominance (Shock and Awe). They intend to use their full rocket/missile/drone power, including a maximum number fitted with chemical weapons, to inflict massive physical and genocidalContinue reading “Taking Iran Seriously”

NATO Must Stand with Ukraine

Russia continues its buildup of forces alongside the border with Ukraine. This is the test of the success of US deterrence. If US economic deterrence were successful would Russia surely discontinue its military buildup near Ukraine. US intelligence has provided proof that Russia plans false flag operations in the rebel regions of eastern Ukraine asContinue reading “NATO Must Stand with Ukraine”

Iran’s List of Target Countries

The Houthi drone terrorist attack against Abu Dhabi as praised by Tehran illustrates that efforts to stay out of the US-led Iran coalition will not give anyone immunity from Iranian WMD mass terrorist attacks after Israel and the United States destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program. The UAE has made it a point to officiallyContinue reading “Iran’s List of Target Countries”

Does Iran Believe That it Will Make Israel Collapse?

Iran claims that its assault on Israel with rockets, missiles, chemical warheads and drones from Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran and Yemen will make Israel collapse. Do they actually believe this or is it just propaganda hyperbole? What is clear is that the Israeli home front will suffer immensely as a result of the assaultContinue reading “Does Iran Believe That it Will Make Israel Collapse?”

The US is Resigned to Coming Iranian WMD Attacks

The Biden administration’s decision to blame the former Trump administration for the impending collapse of the Vienna talks is indicative of a sense of resignation in the US administration over the prospects of Iranian WMD terrorist attacks against the American homeland. This is understandable, Iranian chemical and potentially biological weapons terrorist attacks against major AmericanContinue reading “The US is Resigned to Coming Iranian WMD Attacks”

Tehran’s Confidence in Terrorist Deterrence

Iran has expressed the assessment that Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett’s new policy of avoiding publicly threatening Iran and instead focusing on building Israel’s defensive and offensive capabilities vis-a-vis Iran and its proxies is evidence that Iran has succeeded in deterring Israel. The Iranian representative claimed that Iran has an effective deterrence capacity against “emptyContinue reading “Tehran’s Confidence in Terrorist Deterrence”

Why Iran does not Fear Invasion

Iran is convinced that General Frank McKenzie was bluffing when recently threatening a US invasion of Iran should Iran attack America. Tehran knows that the American people are tired of Middle Eastern wars and have no appetite for an invasion of Iran. Furthermore, Iran is convinced that the Biden administration despite repeatedly denying so isContinue reading “Why Iran does not Fear Invasion”

Iranian Fears

Zohar Palti, the head of the Political-Military Bureau of the Israeli Ministry of Defense and former head of the Mossad Research Department recently pointed out that Iran is no longer afraid and that there is no deterrent against Iran advancing its nuclear weapons program. What then are the implications of Iranian fears? Is it possibleContinue reading “Iranian Fears”

Will Tehran use Biological Weapons?

While it is clear that Iran intends to use chemical weapons for mass terrorist attacks worldwide, on a vast scale following America’s and Israel’s joint destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons progam, the Khomeinist regime’s intentions to use biological weapons are more localized and may seem less obvious. Where and against whom will Tehran useContinue reading “Will Tehran use Biological Weapons?”

Iran’s Best Asset

The complexity involved in understanding the Khomeinist regime tends to lead to benevolent caricatures of the regime in severely underestimating the malevolence of Iran’s intentions. Intelligence agencies generally assume that Iran is rational without taking into account how irrational factors (Khomeinist theology, Anti-Semitism and Middle Eastern political culture) influence Iranian decision making processes. As theContinue reading “Iran’s Best Asset”

Apocalyptic Iran

Iran’s main designated adversaries are the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia. The notion of the United States as an implacable enemy of the Islamic Republic of Iran is based on Islamist Anti-Semitic conspiracy theory according to which the US is the center of the “Jewish conspiracy” to destroy Islam. The notion of Jews andContinue reading “Apocalyptic Iran”

Imperialism is the Greatest Threat

Totalitarian enemies of America whether Communist or Islamist typically describe democratic America as “imperialist”. Of course there is no American empire. America does not dominate other independent nations, like almost every other nation it aligns with foreign nations to promote its own interests. What is unique however about America is that it constantly across presidentialContinue reading “Imperialism is the Greatest Threat”

Will Iran Launch a Surprise Assault?

Iran is well aware that it will be attacked but due to its belief in divine patronage does Tehran not believe that any of the insurrections will succeed after the US-led international coalition imposes a no-fly zone over Iran and provides air support to armed rebellions throughout the country. However, this does not mean thatContinue reading “Will Iran Launch a Surprise Assault?”

The Khomeinist Regime is Becoming Nervous

The Khomeinist regime makes increasingly extreme threats against Israel. Why is this so? The regime is no doubt becoming increasingly nervous about the imposition of an international no-fly zone over Iran that would provide air support to armed rebellions throughout the country and very likely lead to the downfall of the regime. The emerging coalitionContinue reading “The Khomeinist Regime is Becoming Nervous”

What can be Expected on Iran

The Biden administration’s hawks and doves are busy preparing the US for two parallel tracks. Even the doves are becoming aware that the JCPOA is doomed and are therefore preparing for what they imagine will be negotiations on an entirely different nuclear agreement with Iran beyond the JCPOA. The hawks are preparing Plan B withContinue reading “What can be Expected on Iran”

Endless Negotiations are Back on the Table

An interview with US Iran envoy Rob Malley on CNN informs us that the Malley doctrine of endless negotiations is back and the Blinken doctrine of opposition to endless negotiations is dead, or at least so far the moment. Malley, the notorious appeaser of Islamists, is convinced that Iran is advancing its hugely expensive nuclearContinue reading “Endless Negotiations are Back on the Table”

Establishing Global Theocratic Rule of the Hidden Imam

While this may seem strange is the theocratic establishment of the “global rule of the Hidden Imam” an official geostrategic goal of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Iranian regime is seriously convinced that the Iranian Islamist revolution constitutes an eschatological process that will culminate in Iranian world rule. This may seem detached from reality,Continue reading “Establishing Global Theocratic Rule of the Hidden Imam”

Ukrainian NATO Accession is a Vital American National Security Interest

The Ukraine crisis is testing the Biden administration. The Russian buildup of military forces east of Ukraine illustrates the peril of not expanding NATO. Yet, the United States is effectively only threatening financial sanctions against Russia, or at least that is the general perception. The crisis illustrates that further NATO expansion eastwards should be anContinue reading “Ukrainian NATO Accession is a Vital American National Security Interest”

How Imminent is War?

If Israel alone had dictated the timing of the destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program had it been determined either by the pace of progress in the Iran’s nuclear weapons program or the date would be after the June 2023 Turkish presidential and parliamentary elections but obviously not earlier than the Israeli project toContinue reading “How Imminent is War?”

A Confederal Iran Protects the US National Interest

The United States made the mistake of not early partitioning Afghanistan according to language (between Turkmenistan – Turkmen language, Uzbekistan – Uzbek language, Tajikistan – Persian language and Pakistan – Pashto language) and similarly made the mistake of not early partitioning Iraq, granting independence to the three main ethnic regions (the Shias, the Sunnis andContinue reading “A Confederal Iran Protects the US National Interest”

Iran Plans to Defeat America

When the Iranian regime refers to the United States as “the Great Satan” (Persian: Shaytan-e Bozorg) do they mean that America is their greatest enemy as the center of the perceived Jewish conspiracy to destroy Islam (“spreader of corruption”). When the regime chants “death to America” do they mean that they want to bring downContinue reading “Iran Plans to Defeat America”

Iran Intends to Force the World into Submission

Iran has an elaborate plan to force the world into political, ideological, geopolitical, economic and religious submission by means of extortive deployment and use of weapons of mass destruction. Iran is already in the very earliest stage of its campaign.  Iran intends to break out as a superpower already when Israel and the US destroyContinue reading “Iran Intends to Force the World into Submission”

The American Trauma

The past twenty years of American wars in the Middle East have created a certain amount of trauma in the American people. The stereotypical lesson from those wars is that those were mistakes but is it that simple? As the JCPOA inches towards inevitable collapse will America eventually face armed conflict with the Islamic RepublicContinue reading “The American Trauma”

When to Attack Iran?

It takes time and effort to build an international coalition to establish a no-fly zone over Iran. Despite the P5+1 still entertaining desperate hopes about reaching an agreement with Tehran, there is absolutely no chance that such an agreement will be clinched for the simple reason that such an agreement is not in the interestContinue reading “When to Attack Iran?”

America Faces Apocalypse

The failed policy of the Democratic administration on Iran is a reflection of the desperate situation that America finds itself in vis-a-vis Iran. 1. Once Israel destroys the Iranian nuclear weapons program will Iran set off chemical weapons in major cities in dozens of countries around the world that are perceived to be especially connectedContinue reading “America Faces Apocalypse”

Inside the Mullahs’ Conspiratorial Universe

Most non-Anti-Semites have not tried to imagine what it means to be a conspiratorial Anti-Semite. To be a conspiratorial Anti-Semite means to live in a constant state of fear of the ostensibly omnipotent Jews. Conspiratorial Anti-Semites typically try to explain problems in terms of their worldview, meaning in effect that Jews are behind all problems. Continue reading “Inside the Mullahs’ Conspiratorial Universe”

Iran is Dangerous and Irrational

The Raisi administration is officially shutting down the JCPOA by reneging on all “concessions” of the Rouhani administration. The Iranian regime knows that the US is literally desperate to reach a nuclear deal in order to avoid Iranian chemical weapons mass terrorism on a global scale. Iran knows that its WMD extortion works and apparentlyContinue reading “Iran is Dangerous and Irrational”

America will not Elude Iranian Attacks

The JCPOA was quite effective in deferring the Iranian WMD mass terrorist threat. It could be argued that the JCPOA therefore constituted effectual appeasement despite constituting a temporary deferral and effectively selling out the existential interests of America’s Middle Eastern allies. There is no way to repeat the JCPOA trick as Iran is well awareContinue reading “America will not Elude Iranian Attacks”

The Khomeinist Apocalypse

An international no-fly zone under the leadership of Israel and Saudi Arabia is an existential threat against the Khomeinist regime. It will lead to Tehran losing control over up to half of its population and could potentially lead to regime change in Tehran if the Persians too and not only the minorities of Iran’s ethnicContinue reading “The Khomeinist Apocalypse”

The Weapons of Mass Destruction Asymmetry

Why has America’s and Israel’s deterrence against Iran collapsed? There is a fundamental asymmetry between Iran and nearly all other countries with weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Iran intends to use weapons of mass destruction while nearly all other countries (with the exception of Syria) abhor using weapons of mass destruction. This is the reasonContinue reading “The Weapons of Mass Destruction Asymmetry”

Everyone is Desperate About Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction

There is international unanimity on Iran on one point and that is the sense of desperation about the threat of Iranian weapons of mass destruction. However, the desperation is expressed differently, 1) Israel is preparing capabilities to destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program and is ready to absorb ensuing Iranian/Hezbollah attacks with chemical weapons againstContinue reading “Everyone is Desperate About Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction”

Iran does not Fear Israel’s Nuclear Deterrence

There is more than one danger with the scenario of Iran developing nuclear weapons. One of course is geostrategic, Iran seeks hegemony and nuclear weapons is one of several tools in its quest for regional hegemony and global superpower status. This is dangerous enough to the region and to the world, a strategic threat noContinue reading “Iran does not Fear Israel’s Nuclear Deterrence”

Israel Faces Calamity and Tehran Openly Declares so

Tehran openly states that Israel faces disaster and most Israelis do not seem to believe the Iranians. As of writing, the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) is publicly training for a scenario where Hezbollah will unleash 2 000 projectiles a day for several weeks and where Hezbollah will commit chemical weapons attacks along the Israeli-Lebanese border.Continue reading “Israel Faces Calamity and Tehran Openly Declares so”