The US Needs a Deterrence Strategy Against Iran

There is no question that in the long term China poses the greatest strategic challenge to US interests worldwide, but in the short term, Iran is the greatest threat to the American homeland. The threat of Iran attacking America with biological weapons brought to America’s coastlines with Iranian submarines and deployed after America and IsraelContinue reading “The US Needs a Deterrence Strategy Against Iran”

Islamism is Homogenous

Apologists of Islamism seek to emphasize the differences between different Islamists and claim that some Islamists are so-called “moderates” (among Sunnis) or “reformists” (among Shias). Usually is it claimed that you can deal with some Islamist groups and regimes and cooperate and dialogue with them. The track record of this however is terrible. The “reformists”Continue reading “Islamism is Homogenous”

The Beginning of a Long Relationship

The US-MBS relationship started off very warm under the Trump administration but soured when Joe Biden came to power in January 2021. Nevertheless, the Biden administration has learned its lesson that the KSA is an indispensable partner of the United States in the Middle East. The price being paid however is staggering with record highContinue reading “The Beginning of a Long Relationship”

A Leopard doesn’t Change its Spots

The new decree by the Taliban regime i Kabul that women must once more wear the burqa was expected and illustrates the profoundly reactionary nature of Islamist movements generally and the futility in hoping for so-called “moderates”, “reformists” etc. among Islamists although they can surely be politically pragmatic and engage in political lying. There areContinue reading “A Leopard doesn’t Change its Spots”

Why Russia does not Want to Change Course

Two decades ago, Vladimir Putin asked the West to allow Russia to become a member of NATO. This informal request was promptly rebuffed. What view does Russia take of the option of a US-led Asian defense alliance encircling China? For Russia this is primarily a question of lack of trust or to put it differently,Continue reading “Why Russia does not Want to Change Course”

Inside the Mind of Vladimir Putin

There has been a wide range of attempts to pathologize Russian president Vladimir Putin to explain the Ukraine war. It is surprising that otherwise rational and highly educated observers assume that the Russian system suddenly operates without an elaborate strategy. Putin’s Russia has always been similar in its geostrategic behavior to the former Soviet Union,Continue reading “Inside the Mind of Vladimir Putin”

Biden Would Deploy US Troops to Ukraine if he Were a Wilsonian

The case of Ukraine is a test case for the dying liberal world order. If President Joe Biden were a Wilsonian as he purports to be then surely he would intervene militarily on the side of Ukraine, instead he openly admits that he won’t do so for fear of triggering World War III. Ukraine isContinue reading “Biden Would Deploy US Troops to Ukraine if he Were a Wilsonian”

The Biden Administration has a Communication Problem

Why is the Biden administration so widely perceived as “weak”? It began with Donald Trump labeling Joe Biden as “Sleepy Joe” in 2020. Republicans subsequently came to widely characterize Joe Biden as “weak”. Then came the disastrous collapse in Afghanistan and the chaotic American pullout which left hundreds of thousands behind who urgently needed toContinue reading “The Biden Administration has a Communication Problem”

Imperialist Plans of Expansionism

Iran, China and Russia are all neo-imperialist powers and they intend to geographically expand in accordance with their respective geostrategic master plans. America in contrast which is no empire and has no imperialist designs has no master plan across presidencies for its foreign policy since every new president in the 21st century has devised hisContinue reading “Imperialist Plans of Expansionism”

Saudi Arabia Needs to Liberate Yemen

The Saudi aerial war on the Houthis in Yemen since 2015 has proven unsuccessful in ousting the Houthis from power in Sanaa. Considering the growing Houthi missile threat as built up by Iran that threatens Saudi Arabia, Riyadh needs to seriously consider implementing an all-out Saudi invasion of Houthi-held areas in Yemen before the HouthiContinue reading “Saudi Arabia Needs to Liberate Yemen”

The Relationship between Iran and Muslim Brotherhood Intelligence

What is the relationship between Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood? The two espouse very similar forms of Islamism although one is Shia and one is Sunni. Both synethesize traditional political Islam with modernity, with influences particularly from Nazism and Communism. With the exception of Syria where interests diverge due to Iran taking the side ofContinue reading “The Relationship between Iran and Muslim Brotherhood Intelligence”

Why Iran does not Fear Invasion

Iran is convinced that General Frank McKenzie was bluffing when recently threatening a US invasion of Iran should Iran attack America. Tehran knows that the American people are tired of Middle Eastern wars and have no appetite for an invasion of Iran. Furthermore, Iran is convinced that the Biden administration despite repeatedly denying so isContinue reading “Why Iran does not Fear Invasion”

The Art of Building Deterrence

One year of failed appeasement policy has completely destroyed US deterrence against Iran. The notion that this can be repaired by issuing a few threats is preposterous. Public issuance of threatening statements has its place in a comprehensive deterrence posture but are on their own entirely insufficient in rebuilding America’s deterrence against Iran. Iran shouldContinue reading “The Art of Building Deterrence”

The Islamist Nexus

Is there an emerging transdenominational Islamist nexus in the Middle East? There are significant tactical differences between different Islamist movements and Sunni Islamists and Shia Islamists disagree as to whether Sunnis of Shias should rule the worldwide Islamist theocracy that they believe is inevitable due to ostensibly being divinely decreed. Iran and Turkey have closeContinue reading “The Islamist Nexus”

Why did Saddam Hussein not Turn Over his WMD to the UN?

Saddam Hussein is known to have had weapons of mass destruction and he used chemical weapons against his own Kurdish citizens and against the Iranian military. The pacifist myth according to which Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction was an American propaganda fabrication therefore does not hold water. There was a United Nations inspections regimeContinue reading “Why did Saddam Hussein not Turn Over his WMD to the UN?”

Iran is a Terrorist State

Iran is the largest state sponsor of terrorism in the world. Supporting and orchestrating terrorism is part of the geostrategy of the Islamic Republic of Iran worldwide. It should thus not surprise anyone that Iran plans mass terrorist attacks with chemical weapons against major cities around the world in revenge for America and Israel destroyingContinue reading “Iran is a Terrorist State”

A Confederal Iran Protects the US National Interest

The United States made the mistake of not early partitioning Afghanistan according to language (between Turkmenistan – Turkmen language, Uzbekistan – Uzbek language, Tajikistan – Persian language and Pakistan – Pashto language) and similarly made the mistake of not early partitioning Iraq, granting independence to the three main ethnic regions (the Shias, the Sunnis andContinue reading “A Confederal Iran Protects the US National Interest”

The American Trauma

The past twenty years of American wars in the Middle East have created a certain amount of trauma in the American people. The stereotypical lesson from those wars is that those were mistakes but is it that simple? As the JCPOA inches towards inevitable collapse will America eventually face armed conflict with the Islamic RepublicContinue reading “The American Trauma”

Israel has an Exit Strategy for Syria and Lebanon

America was fully justified in liberating totalitarian Iraq in 2003. Saddam Hussein was a profoundly dangerous dictator who had used chemical weapons against civilians and committed genocide against his own citizens. The Anti-American Saddam Hussein posed a severe threat against America due to the possibility that he would use his chemical weapons again. America endedContinue reading “Israel has an Exit Strategy for Syria and Lebanon”

The Weapons of Mass Destruction Asymmetry

Why has America’s and Israel’s deterrence against Iran collapsed? There is a fundamental asymmetry between Iran and nearly all other countries with weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Iran intends to use weapons of mass destruction while nearly all other countries (with the exception of Syria) abhor using weapons of mass destruction. This is the reasonContinue reading “The Weapons of Mass Destruction Asymmetry”

The Muslim Brotherhood Campaign Against Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia has been liberalizing the country for over a decade and has ended its previous financial support for the Muslim Brotherhood worldwide which has been designated as a terrorist organization in Saudi Arabia. There is now even a beach on the Saudi Red Sea coast which permits bikinis. Women are allowed to drive, haveContinue reading “The Muslim Brotherhood Campaign Against Saudi Arabia”

Empty Threats Undermine America’s Deterrence Posture

The Biden administration’s practice of making more or less veiled threats against Iran, threats which the administration is manifestly not ready to follow through on is not only not credible but is furthermore detrimental since it undermines the US deterrence posture vis-a-vis Iran and enhances the threat of Iranian chemical weapons attacks against major AmericanContinue reading “Empty Threats Undermine America’s Deterrence Posture”

The Shifting American Interest in the Middle East and Islamdom

The perception of the American interest in the Middle East is shifting. Once was the American interest in the Gulf in supporting Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states based almost entirely on the provision of oil to America by the Gulf states. America is no longer dependent on Gulf oil since America is now energyContinue reading “The Shifting American Interest in the Middle East and Islamdom”

The US Disengagement from the Middle East

The problem the US faces in the Middle East is fundamental lack of credibility. US allies do not believe in the US and Iran does not fear America. US rhetoric about “looking at other options” does not deter Iran nor does it impress US allies. After giving up Afghanistan does the US face a fundamentalContinue reading “The US Disengagement from the Middle East”

Naivety About Totalitarianism is Inexcusable

For every wave of totalitarianism there has also been the “useful idiots”, prominent intellectuals who were ready to stand up as apologists for totalitarian regimes and totalitarian movements. Communism probably had more useful idiots than any other form of totalitarianism, yet Nazism also had its share of useful idiots who would e.g. claim that HitlerContinue reading “Naivety About Totalitarianism is Inexcusable”

Theocracy is Inconsistent with Freedom of Religion

Freedom of religion is one the fundamentals of international law, yet one of the major political ideologies of our time, Islamism, does not agree with this. Freedom of religion fundamentally clashes with the very concept of theocracy and hence there is very much need for an international convention that would ban theocracy as a crimeContinue reading “Theocracy is Inconsistent with Freedom of Religion”