The Biden administration often repeats its commitment to resolving the Palestinian issue through an infamously failed formula which was always dead on arrival due to being founded on outright false premises constituting on the American side simply wishful thinking and refusal to learn from recent Israeli history.
What is peculiar is that the Biden administration is apparently much less eager to facilitate Israeli-Saudi peace and is unwilling to agree to MBS’ demands for 1) a defense treaty, 2) NATO-level weapons-deliveries and 3) the KSA buying the new small, much more cost-effective nuclear reactors that are currently being developed in the United States.
Let’s reframe these demands. The US and Israel should be members of a Middle Eastern defense alliance directed against Iran that would also include the GCC nations, Jordan, Egypt, Morocco, Sudan, Tunisia and Libya. Iran intends to purchase an air force from Russia and plans to roll their tanks through Israel across the Nile all the way to the Atlantic Ocean and hence Iran’s subversive activities in Moroccan West Sahara.
Why then does the coming Israeli government represent an opportunity that the outgoing government did not? Because Benjamin Netanyahu is perceived as a man of honor by most Arab leaders. Because honor matters profoundly in the Middle East and President Biden is alas, in contrast perceived as dishonorable by Arab leaders. This may seem somewhat peculiar since Netanyahu’s reputation in domestic Israeli politics is precisely as being very much dishonest.
However, a regional defense alliance with Israeli and American membership will not work without also Saudi Arabia being a member. Countries such as Oman and Tunisia (both nations are interested in normalization with Israel) need not necessarily be founding members of the alliance and so could join later. Just like America is an essential member of NATO, so will America be an essential part of the Middle Eastern defense alliance. Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan could also become members of the new alliance which would be directed specifically against Iran and its proxies and no other threat.
The primary purpose of such a new defense alliance is of course as with NATO not to fight war but rather to prevent war by deterring Iranian aggression. The US needs to make a decision to commit itself to membership or it will eventually see the region go up in flames with calamitous consequences.
Let’s face the reality. Iran and Russia have agreed on a latter-day Molotov-Ribbentrop pact where the two nations agree to arm each other for the purpose of westward territorial expansion. The deal is simple, Russia gets the entire Europe and Iran gets the entire Arab world. Westward invasions are certainly not imminent, yet they are long since planned and intended for implementation when the time is ready.
The US government needs to make MBS a counteroffer.