Ukraine has been sufficiently armed to defend itself but not liberate its occupied territories. That’s the painful reality that Ukrainians are facing. Yet, President Biden and many of his European allies are still apparently entertaining some Russian propaganda delusions that sufficiently arming Ukraine would have ”dangerous consequences”.
- It is not in Russia’s interest to use tactical nuclear weapons on Ukrainian soil, there is nothing militarily for Russia to gain from that.
- The Russian military is currently not in a position to wage conventional war on NATO.
- Russia would gain nothing from using tactical nuclear weapons against NATO because Russia does not currently have the conventional capacity to wage war on NATO.
- Russia could gain tactically from using chemical weapons against Ukrainian forces but would lose strategically since this would lead to NATO intervention in Ukraine and so ergo Russia has nothing to gain from using chemical weapons.
- Biological weapons are useless since they spread across frontlines and so deploying them against Ukraine undoubtedly would massively hurt Russia itself and hence this would be entirely counterproductive for Moscow.
- Finally what about nuking Kyiv with a strategic nuclear weapon? This would not defeat Ukraine but would lead to war between Russia and NATO and hence Russian defeat and so why would Russia do that?
The question is who is deterring whom? Currently is Russia deterring NATO and counting on NATO to make fear-based decisions when it is rather the highly rational President Putin who has massive reasons to be be fearful and who should be rationally expected to act out of fear in the interest of his country.
Aliyah Organization 