The first lesson from Ramadan this year is that Israel does not control the pulse in the Levant, Iran does. What is the strategic reality in terms of deterrence? Israel does not believe that Iran will dare use chemical weapons against the Jewish state or Israel would be distributing gas masks, thus Israeli non-conventional deterrenceContinue reading “A Joint Iran Operation is Pivotal for American Deterrence”
Tag Archives: Chemical weapons
What is President Biden Afraid Of?
Ukraine has been sufficiently armed to defend itself but not liberate its occupied territories. That’s the painful reality that Ukrainians are facing. Yet, President Biden and many of his European allies are still apparently entertaining some Russian propaganda delusions that sufficiently arming Ukraine would have ”dangerous consequences”. The question is who is deterring whom? CurrentlyContinue reading “What is President Biden Afraid Of?”
How Iran is Instigating War
Why would Iran want a war in the Levant now? This is an excellent question that requires some elaboration. Iran is moderately convinced that Israel and America are deterred by Iranian weapons of mass destruction and will not dare to destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program. However, Tehran is less certain when it comes toContinue reading “How Iran is Instigating War”
The US and Israel are both Wrong on Iran Diplomacy
Washington still clings to the illusion that Tehran is interested in returning to the JCPOA and would ultimately do so. Jerusalem clings to a similar illusion in believing that it is possible to deter Iran in claiming that if Tehran was presented with a credible military deterrence that would threaten its survival (i.e. a no-flyContinue reading “The US and Israel are both Wrong on Iran Diplomacy”
Iran Plans Major Conventional War
What is the purpose of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons? There is more than one purpose: 1) Iran gains immunity from any future US invasion under any circumstances no matter how maliciously and atrociously Iran acts. 2) Iran can perpetrate acts of biological and chemical terrorism with complete impunity. 3) Iran would have the option ofContinue reading “Iran Plans Major Conventional War”
What Will Happen After the Destruction of the Iranian Nuclear Weapons Program?
A weekend interview in the Israeli daily Israel Hayom provided an insight into the perspectives of Israeli decision-makers. The interview was with one colonel T; the head of the IDF General Staff Strategy and Third-Circle Directorate. Ostensibly was the interview a sales pitch in order to persuade Israeli elected politicians to engage more in Iran-relatedContinue reading “What Will Happen After the Destruction of the Iranian Nuclear Weapons Program?”
The US Needs a Regime Change Policy on Iran
The US government lives in an illusion fed by the Iranian regime, namely that Iran somehow has an interest in a nuclear agreement with the P5+1. Contrary to US assessments and due to increasing progress in the development of electric vehicles, something which radically shrinks the window of opportunity for oil-based Mahdist neo-imperialism, Iran hasContinue reading “The US Needs a Regime Change Policy on Iran”
What are Tehran’s Interests Regarding the Karish Maritime Border Dispute?
Israel withdrew from Lebanon in the year 2000 but Tehran was not satisfied and so Iran/Hezbollah instructed the Lebanese government to manufacture the Sheba farm (Har Dov) fictitious border claims on lands in the northern Golan heights. Iran/Hezbollah did it again in 2022 when it instructed the Lebanese government to expand Lebanon’s claims for territorialContinue reading “What are Tehran’s Interests Regarding the Karish Maritime Border Dispute?”
Does Israel Want War with the Iranian Axis?
The view from Jerusalem regarding Iran’s nuclear intentions is rather befuddled. One day we hear that there is little risk that there will be a return to the JCPOA and the next day we hear that such return is imminent and these “assessments” are unwittingly cyclically repeated and so the master manipulators in Tehran mustContinue reading “Does Israel Want War with the Iranian Axis?”
Jerusalem and Tehran are Different Conceptual Universes
Israel and Iran are both looking forward to establishing a new regional order and neither side fears regional war. Nevertheless, the respective visions of the new regional order look completely different. Both sides envision establishing regional hegemony and removing each other from power. What is the reason for these radically different strategic conceptions? At theContinue reading “Jerusalem and Tehran are Different Conceptual Universes”
Hezbollah Suffers From Hubris
Hassan Nasrallah miscalculated in 2006 and he is miscalculating again and threatening war over the Karish gas field. Nasrallah and his Iranian sponsors are projecting their own misconceptions upon Israel and therefore assume that Israel is afraid of war with the Hezbollah-led Iranian axis. It is true that the Axis will be able to inflictContinue reading “Hezbollah Suffers From Hubris”
Iran Poses a Greater Threat to the US than to Israel
America’s adversaries, including Iran, fear Republican administrations but certainly not Democratic administrations. Why is this so? Democratic administrations are more concerned about human rights while Republican administrations are more concerned about realpolitik. The real question is therefore whether the Iranian nuclear weapons program will be destroyed under the current Democratic administration or under the nextContinue reading “Iran Poses a Greater Threat to the US than to Israel”
Nothing Except Military Action Will Stop Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program
There was a disagreement during the meeting in Israel between President Biden and Prime Minister Lapid on the question of Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Prime Minister Lapid insisted that only deterrence would persuade Iran to sign a nuclear agreement while President Biden insisted that diplomacy was still the best way forward. Both are wrong sinceContinue reading “Nothing Except Military Action Will Stop Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program”
The US Must Learn From Ukraine War How to Prevent War in the Middle East
Why are Finland and Sweden suddenly applying for membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization? They understand the simple truth that the Russian invasion of Ukraine would never have occurred had Ukraine already been a member of NATO. NATO is not primarily an organization for waging war but above all an organization for preventing warContinue reading “The US Must Learn From Ukraine War How to Prevent War in the Middle East”
A US-Saudi Defense Pact Would Checkmate Iran
Iranian geostrategy is focused like a laser beam on taking over the Twelver eschatological region with its immense oil resources, control over which would instantly transform Iran into a superpower able to extort America’s allies around the world. Islam has three messianic figures. These are 1) the Mahdi (identified by Twelvers with the Hidden Imam)Continue reading “A US-Saudi Defense Pact Would Checkmate Iran”
Massive US Force Buildup Necessary Prior to Destroying Nuclear Program
The ostensible negotiations process with Iran might seem like a waste of time considering Iran’s complete lack of interest in an agreement with the United States. However, that is certainly not the case as the time is well used by Iran’s intended victims to prepare for war against Iran. There are three levels of militaryContinue reading “Massive US Force Buildup Necessary Prior to Destroying Nuclear Program”
Northern Peace Will Come at a Heavy Cost
Iranian officials state over and over again that Israel will be destroyed if Israel destroys the Iranian nuclear weapons program. They literally mean what they say. What this means is that the entire Iranian axis (primarily Hezbollah) will engage in a frontal assault against Israel with projectiles, including ones with chemical warheads. (Iranian use ofContinue reading “Northern Peace Will Come at a Heavy Cost”
Why Hezbollah Will Attack Israel
There are multiple reasons why Hezbollah and its allies in the Iranian axis in the Middle East will engage in a frontal assault on Israel after Israel and the US destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program once so-called “negotiations” have become completely exhausted. 1. The Iranian regime systematically states that this will happen if theContinue reading “Why Hezbollah Will Attack Israel”
The Approaching Khomeinist Apocalypse
“I am decisely announcing to the whole world that if the world-devourers [the infidel powers] wish to stand against our religion, we will stand against the whole world and will not cease until the annihilation of all of them. Either we all become free, or we will go to the greater freedom, which is martyrdom.Continue reading “The Approaching Khomeinist Apocalypse”
The Danger of Preemptive Apocalypse
Tehran is currently moderately convinced that America and Israel will not dare to destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program. This is one of the reasons for its rejectionism in Vienna. Nevertheless, on Quds Day, Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah threatened that Iran might attack Israel directly if Israeli sabotage operations against the Iranian nuclear weapons programContinue reading “The Danger of Preemptive Apocalypse”
Inside the Khomeinist Mind
The Iranian regime openly states that its overarching geostrategic goal is to prompt the reappearance of the Hidden Imam. Yet academic experts and intelligence analysts do tend to not pay attention to the religious dimension of Iranian decision making. Khomeinism is unique in the sense as being the only form of Islamism that is apocalypticContinue reading “Inside the Khomeinist Mind”
The Price of Aggression
Let there be no doubt that if Hezbollah and the rest of the Iranian axis launch a frontal assault on Israel in response to Israel and America destroying the Iranian nuclear weapons program there will surely be a hefty price to pay. There will be consequences, there will be a major war in the northernContinue reading “The Price of Aggression”
Khomeinism and Iranian Foreign Policy
Ayatollah Khomeini introduced a governing principle according to which Iranian national interests take precedence over sharia. This may seem surprising for an Islamist theocratic regime but can be observed in Iranian foreign policy for various parts of the world. Iran is completely silent on China’s Han colonization of Xinjiang and totalitarian policies of coerced assimilationContinue reading “Khomeinism and Iranian Foreign Policy”
Who is Right on Iran?
What are Iran’s intentions in Vienna? Non-Iranian intelligence agencies do not appear to know. Many weeks ago there was a flood of Israeli predictions of an imminent deal in Vienna but those fears have certainly not materialized and now even the Americans appear skeptical at the feasibility of a return to the JCPOA. I haveContinue reading “Who is Right on Iran?”
Who Will Invade Whom?
Israel and Iran have completely different assessments as to the outcome of the future conflict between Israel and the so-called “Axis of Resistance” in the Levant. Iran assumes that massive barrages of rockets and missiles, many of them with chemical warheads, will inflict such heavy damage on the Israeli home front and cause such disorientationContinue reading “Who Will Invade Whom?”
The Aman Conceptzia
There is a dispute within Aman (Israeli military intelligence) regarding the intentions of Hezbollah. Is Hezbollah an Iranian proxy or is it a Lebanese patriotic organization? Is Hezbollah primarily interested in taking over Israel or taking over Lebanon? Of course, Hezbollah is run by one man, Hassan Nasrallah who makes all important decisions and althoughContinue reading “The Aman Conceptzia”
The Approaching Apocalypse
Khomeinism is different from all other forms of Islamism in that it constitutes an apocalyptic death cult. No other sect of Islamism believes that the end of days is close in time. However, Khomeinism has no fixed date for the apocalypse which is somewhat flexible in time. The general understanding is that eschatological time wasContinue reading “The Approaching Apocalypse”
Regionwide War and Global Terror
Iran does not fear America which it considers bruised by war and defeated by international Jihadism. In the Khomeinist Weltanschauung is Israel merely one of the tentacles of the “worldwide” American-Jewish “octopus” and so Tehran believes that Jerusalem cannot independently decide on destroying Iran’s nuclear weapons program without a green light from Washington. Therefore willContinue reading “Regionwide War and Global Terror”
The Palestinian Interest
What is the Palestinian interest? There are two perspectives to this. The first perspective assumes that the Palestinian interest lies in fighting the Jewish state until the entire Jewish population in accordance with the Palestinian consensus has been “removed” from the land, i.e. exterminated since there is nowhere to deport the Jews. Palestinians have beenContinue reading “The Palestinian Interest”
The Israeli Annexations of Alawite and Druze Regions
Israel has no choice but to defeat Hezbollah after Hezbollah attempts to “annihilate Israel” with mass use of chemical weapons following upon Israel and America’s destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Hezbollah is dispersed throughout Lebanon and Syria and therefore defeating Hezbollah requires liberating Lebanon and Syria. This is self-defense, proportional and military necessity.Continue reading “The Israeli Annexations of Alawite and Druze Regions”
The Palestinian Narrative is not Legitimate
It has often been claimed that peace requires accepting that there are two competing narratives, one Israeli and one Palestinian, but is this really true? What has not been considered is that the Palestinian narrative is Anti-Zionist, meaning opposed to peace with Israel. Therefore legitimizing the Palestinian narrative as an obstacle to peace makes peaceContinue reading “The Palestinian Narrative is not Legitimate”
Tehran’s Intention to “Annihilate America”
On January 4, 2022; Ali Fadavi, the deputy head of the IRGC explicitly threatened on Hezbollah’s al-Manar television station to “annihilate America”. The threat of extermination has long been reserved for the “Small Satan” and now Iran reveals that it plans to exterminate the “Great Satan” as well. Is this a serious threat or isContinue reading “Tehran’s Intention to “Annihilate America””
The US Must Clarify on Disengagement from Islamdom
The US suffers from a global credibility deficit. America’s adversaries no longer fear the United States and Middle Eastern allies of the United States are all convinced that the US intends to disengage from Islamdom, yet the US denies this. Iran calculates that in the event of the US and Israel destroying the Iranian nuclearContinue reading “The US Must Clarify on Disengagement from Islamdom”
Chemical Genocide
Iranian officials constantly repeat their intention to “annihilate Israel” and say that “Israel will be destroyed” if it attacks the Iranian nuclear weapons program. What does the regime mean? They are referring to the mass use of chemical weapons against Israeli cities. Iran is convinced that Israel and the United States are bluffing and thatContinue reading “Chemical Genocide”
Russia Deters America in Ukraine
Why is America not admitting Ukraine to NATO and putting an end to the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine? The US should militarily deter Russia from invading Ukraine yet it is the US that has ended up deterred by Russia. The Biden administration wields the threat of economic sanctions against Russia despite PresidentContinue reading “Russia Deters America in Ukraine”
Taking Iran Seriously
Iranian leaders continue to state that they will “destroy Israel” in the next war. What they mean is that they intend to implement the American military doctrine of Rapid Dominance (Shock and Awe). They intend to use their full rocket/missile/drone power, including a maximum number fitted with chemical weapons, to inflict massive physical and genocidalContinue reading “Taking Iran Seriously”
Iran’s List of Target Countries
The Houthi drone terrorist attack against Abu Dhabi as praised by Tehran illustrates that efforts to stay out of the US-led Iran coalition will not give anyone immunity from Iranian WMD mass terrorist attacks after Israel and the United States destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program. The UAE has made it a point to officiallyContinue reading “Iran’s List of Target Countries”
Does Iran Believe That it Will Make Israel Collapse?
Iran claims that its assault on Israel with rockets, missiles, chemical warheads and drones from Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran and Yemen will make Israel collapse. Do they actually believe this or is it just propaganda hyperbole? What is clear is that the Israeli home front will suffer immensely as a result of the assaultContinue reading “Does Iran Believe That it Will Make Israel Collapse?”
Manifest Unreason
Regional events point to Median Jewish mass Aliyah (immigration) to Israel becoming enabled already in the next few years. The Vienna talks are going nowhere as the Khomeinist regime assesses that a nuclear agreement with the United States is not in the nuclear and economic interest of Iran. At the same time does Iran notContinue reading “Manifest Unreason”
The US is Resigned to Coming Iranian WMD Attacks
The Biden administration’s decision to blame the former Trump administration for the impending collapse of the Vienna talks is indicative of a sense of resignation in the US administration over the prospects of Iranian WMD terrorist attacks against the American homeland. This is understandable, Iranian chemical and potentially biological weapons terrorist attacks against major AmericanContinue reading “The US is Resigned to Coming Iranian WMD Attacks”
Why Bet on a Dead Horse?
There are reports in the news media about Arab governments seeking normalization with the last Ba’athist regime in Damascus. This is entirely counterproductive. Major war between Israel and Iran’s allies in the Levant is entirely inescapable after Israel and America destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program as they are jointly training to do considering thatContinue reading “Why Bet on a Dead Horse?”
Will Tehran use Biological Weapons?
While it is clear that Iran intends to use chemical weapons for mass terrorist attacks worldwide, on a vast scale following America’s and Israel’s joint destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons progam, the Khomeinist regime’s intentions to use biological weapons are more localized and may seem less obvious. Where and against whom will Tehran useContinue reading “Will Tehran use Biological Weapons?”
Iran’s Best Asset
The complexity involved in understanding the Khomeinist regime tends to lead to benevolent caricatures of the regime in severely underestimating the malevolence of Iran’s intentions. Intelligence agencies generally assume that Iran is rational without taking into account how irrational factors (Khomeinist theology, Anti-Semitism and Middle Eastern political culture) influence Iranian decision making processes. As theContinue reading “Iran’s Best Asset”
A Multifront War
Israel will find itself in multifront war with Iran and its regional proxies, probably during 2022 (and at the latest during 2023) after America and Israel destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program as Hezbollah, Hamas and PIJ (Palestinian Islamic Jihad) will launch a frontal assault against Israel. There will be intense conflict with Gaza althoughContinue reading “A Multifront War”
Apocalyptic Iran
Iran’s main designated adversaries are the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia. The notion of the United States as an implacable enemy of the Islamic Republic of Iran is based on Islamist Anti-Semitic conspiracy theory according to which the US is the center of the “Jewish conspiracy” to destroy Islam. The notion of Jews andContinue reading “Apocalyptic Iran”
Imperialism is the Greatest Threat
Totalitarian enemies of America whether Communist or Islamist typically describe democratic America as “imperialist”. Of course there is no American empire. America does not dominate other independent nations, like almost every other nation it aligns with foreign nations to promote its own interests. What is unique however about America is that it constantly across presidentialContinue reading “Imperialism is the Greatest Threat”
Neutrality on Iran is in no One’s Interest
The JCPOA is brain-dead and it is only a matter of weeks until it will be fully dead and buried. The reason is that Iran correctly assesses that returning to compliance with the JCPOA and/or reaching a nuclear agreement with the United States are not conducive to the nuclear and economic interests of the KhomeinistContinue reading “Neutrality on Iran is in no One’s Interest”
Will Iran Launch a Surprise Assault?
Iran is well aware that it will be attacked but due to its belief in divine patronage does Tehran not believe that any of the insurrections will succeed after the US-led international coalition imposes a no-fly zone over Iran and provides air support to armed rebellions throughout the country. However, this does not mean thatContinue reading “Will Iran Launch a Surprise Assault?”
The Art of Building Deterrence
One year of failed appeasement policy has completely destroyed US deterrence against Iran. The notion that this can be repaired by issuing a few threats is preposterous. Public issuance of threatening statements has its place in a comprehensive deterrence posture but are on their own entirely insufficient in rebuilding America’s deterrence against Iran. Iran shouldContinue reading “The Art of Building Deterrence”
Israel Underestimates Iranian Threat
Israel has a track record of underestimating the nefariousness of Iran’s intentions. Israeli intelligence until recently believed that Tehran was interested in a nuclear agreement with the United States. Until recently did senior Israeli military experts believe that Iran would not order Hezbollah to launch a frontal attack against Israeli cities with 150 000 rocketsContinue reading “Israel Underestimates Iranian Threat”
Aliyah Organization 