The Syrian Regime – Not Israel – Will Collapse

“Syria warns Israel and its sponsors once again of the dangers of these aggressive policies, which push the region towards total escalation and a new phase of insecurity and instability,”

‘Syrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs

At the height of the Syrian Civil War did the last Baathist regime make a devil’s bargain with the mullahs in Tehran. Iran and Hezbollah would help the regime survive but there was a a price tag attached, which in effect meant that Iranian intelligence infiltrated Syrian intelligence. 

Bashar al-Assad came to power as a liberalizer but his plans were quickly squashed by the Syrian intelligence community which is the real power in post-Hafez Syria. It is difficult to asses how much power Bashar wields but it appears that he is mostly a figurehead for the multi-headed hydra that is the Syrian intelligence community which in turn nowadays is controlled by Iran. Otherwise how can one explain Syria’s behavior in tolerating military forces of Hezbollah, Iran and pro-Iranian militias on Syrian soil considering that the massive presence of Hezbollah forces provides a casus belli for Israel to invade Syria after Hezbollah attacks Israel from Lebanon? Bashar knows that his regime will come to an end with the Northern War and he is so helpless that there is absolutely nothing he can do about it.

The ruling mullahs in Iran on their part have in contrast always believed that Israel’s demise has always been a question of time as a matter of divinely ordained predestination. This means that the Northern War will happen sooner or later, probably sooner and so the fate of the Syrian regime is already sealed.

Published by Daniella Bartfeld

Daniella Bartfeld is the founding director of the Aliyah Organization.

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