Iran’s Levantine Calculus

Iran approaches nuclear threshold status and Israel prepares to launch preemptive strikes against its nuclear weapons program. Will then Iran order Hezbollah to attack the city of Tel Aviv in response to Israel’s preemptive strikes? If Hezbollah does not launch barrages of missiles against the city of Tel Aviv will it effectively have become strategically irrelevant. The very purpose of Hezbollah’s missiles at the present time is to serve as a defensive shield for Iran’s nuclear weapons program and deter Israel from attacking it. The prospect of a joint IDF-SDF operation against the so called “Axis of Resistance” which is actually “an Axis of Genocide” since it is committed to Ali Khamenei’s vision of the “the Annihiliation of Israel” could in theory deter Iran from ordering Hezbollah to launch a missile assault against Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities but this would be a tremendous policy failure for Iran.

The Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei who is deeply religious counts on divine intervention to bring military success to his “Axis of Genocide”. He fully believes that Allah will ultimately help destroy the wicked Jews and bring the Hidden Imam (Mahdi) and Isa ibn Maryam (Jesus). 

On the other hand would it in theory rather make sense to bide the time and build up Hezbollah’s missile arsenal until it becomes an existential threat against Israel. However, Tehran realizes that Israel will launch a preemptive war against Hezbollah long before Hezbollah reaches that stage and such a preemptive war would in any case involve a joint IDF-SDF operation.

Iran is a highly rational strategic player up to a point when its religious calculus takes over. Therefore Khamenei believes that the war with the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) and the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) is winnable. This does not make sense but the Axis is ready for war and has long been ready for war. Therefore will Hezbollah attack the city of Tel Aviv.

Published by Daniella Bartfeld

Daniella Bartfeld is the founding director of the Aliyah Organization.

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