Does Israel Want War with the Iranian Axis?

The view from Jerusalem regarding Iran’s nuclear intentions is rather befuddled. One day we hear that there is little risk that there will be a return to the JCPOA and the next day we hear that such return is imminent and these “assessments” are unwittingly cyclically repeated and so the master manipulators in Tehran mustContinue reading “Does Israel Want War with the Iranian Axis?”

Why Hezbollah Will Attack Israel

There are multiple reasons why Hezbollah and its allies in the Iranian axis in the Middle East will engage in a frontal assault on Israel after Israel and the US destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program once so-called “negotiations” have become completely exhausted. 1. The Iranian regime systematically states that this will happen if theContinue reading “Why Hezbollah Will Attack Israel”

The United States Needs Saudi Arabia

The early assessment by the Biden administration that a return to the JCPOA could be taken for granted and that the US did not really need Saudi Arabia as an ally has been disproven by subsequent events. Iran is more aggressive than ever and Ali Khamenei is apparently grooming the arch-extremist president Ebrahim Raisi asContinue reading “The United States Needs Saudi Arabia”

The US Needs to Provide Incentives to Saudi Arabia

In 2021 Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman al-Saud made a generous offer to US National Security Advisory Jake Sullivan. MBS offered to normalize relations with Israel in return for a list of demands for so-called “incentives” (i.e. security guarantees and weapons sales). The Americans not only inexplicably turned down the generous offer but apparently rudelyContinue reading “The US Needs to Provide Incentives to Saudi Arabia”

Who is Right on Iran?

What are Iran’s intentions in Vienna? Non-Iranian intelligence agencies do not appear to know. Many weeks ago there was a flood of Israeli predictions of an imminent deal in Vienna but those fears have certainly not materialized and now even the Americans appear skeptical at the feasibility of a return to the JCPOA. I haveContinue reading “Who is Right on Iran?”

Iran does not Want to Defer the Apocalypse

Due to crushing UN economic sanctions did Iran agree to the JCPOA in 2015. Iran’s economic situation was such that Iran’s leaders agreed to defer the timeline of the Khomeinist apocalypse. Today in contrast there is no such incentive as Iran is able to export oil to China, and Tehran rightly sees no economic benefitContinue reading “Iran does not Want to Defer the Apocalypse”

The American Desperation

The JCPOA is inching towards collapse as the definite burial of the JCPOA is only days away. The US sanctions on the Iranian civilian nuclear program were lifted as a desperate goodwill gesture to the Khomeinist regime to show them that the American government is acting in good faith. America faces a dark future asContinue reading “The American Desperation”

The Relationship between Iran and Muslim Brotherhood Intelligence

What is the relationship between Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood? The two espouse very similar forms of Islamism although one is Shia and one is Sunni. Both synethesize traditional political Islam with modernity, with influences particularly from Nazism and Communism. With the exception of Syria where interests diverge due to Iran taking the side ofContinue reading “The Relationship between Iran and Muslim Brotherhood Intelligence”

Apocalyptic Iran

Iran’s main designated adversaries are the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia. The notion of the United States as an implacable enemy of the Islamic Republic of Iran is based on Islamist Anti-Semitic conspiracy theory according to which the US is the center of the “Jewish conspiracy” to destroy Islam. The notion of Jews andContinue reading “Apocalyptic Iran”

Israel Underestimates Iranian Threat

Israel has a track record of underestimating the nefariousness of Iran’s intentions. Israeli intelligence until recently believed that Tehran was interested in a nuclear agreement with the United States. Until recently did senior Israeli military experts believe that Iran would not order Hezbollah to launch a frontal attack against Israeli cities with 150 000 rocketsContinue reading “Israel Underestimates Iranian Threat”

Iran, Syria and Lebanon Face Checkmate with Open Eyes

Israel is preparing to destroy Hezbollah and its state sponsors in the upcoming war in the northern Levant after Israel and America eliminate the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Iran is sabotaging the Vienna process up until the very end. Once the hopeless post-JCPOA “negotiations” as envisioned by the pro-Islamist notorious appeaser Rob Malley end, aContinue reading “Iran, Syria and Lebanon Face Checkmate with Open Eyes”

Will Tehran Unleash Hezbollah?

There are reportedly differing assessments in Israeli military intelligence (Aman) as to whether Hezbollah will attack Israel in response to Israel and America destroying the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Why is this so? Iranian officials insist that they will “destroy Israel” in response to the destruction of Iran’s nuclear weapons program. This of course isContinue reading “Will Tehran Unleash Hezbollah?”

Iran is a Terrorist State

Iran is the largest state sponsor of terrorism in the world. Supporting and orchestrating terrorism is part of the geostrategy of the Islamic Republic of Iran worldwide. It should thus not surprise anyone that Iran plans mass terrorist attacks with chemical weapons against major cities around the world in revenge for America and Israel destroyingContinue reading “Iran is a Terrorist State”

Iran’s Chemical Weapons Calculus

Why does Iran intend to attack third countries with chemical weapons following Israel’s destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program? First, this is intended as deterrence so that nations will pressure Israel never to attack the Iranian nuclear weapons program again. Second, it is intended to isolate the Jewish state among the nations and diminishContinue reading “Iran’s Chemical Weapons Calculus”

Iran is Undeterred

Israel does not yet have a military capability to destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program and will not have one for about a year or so and the US still does not have a Plan B. So currently the Iranians are not worried. However, no one should be surprised that Iran is undeterred. The lackContinue reading “Iran is Undeterred”

Inside the Mullahs’ Conspiratorial Universe

Most non-Anti-Semites have not tried to imagine what it means to be a conspiratorial Anti-Semite. To be a conspiratorial Anti-Semite means to live in a constant state of fear of the ostensibly omnipotent Jews. Conspiratorial Anti-Semites typically try to explain problems in terms of their worldview, meaning in effect that Jews are behind all problems. Continue reading “Inside the Mullahs’ Conspiratorial Universe”

No One Will Mourn the Demise of the Last Ba’athist Regime

The last Ba’athist regime is run by members of the Alawite community in Syria, one of nine denominations of core Median Judaism. Yet, the Ba’athist regime despite being controlled by persons who are halakhically Jewish promote vile Anti-Semitism. Ba’athist Syria is allied with Khomeinist Iran, originally due to the strange misconception that Alawites ostensibly areContinue reading “No One Will Mourn the Demise of the Last Ba’athist Regime”

Empty Threats Undermine America’s Deterrence Posture

The Biden administration’s practice of making more or less veiled threats against Iran, threats which the administration is manifestly not ready to follow through on is not only not credible but is furthermore detrimental since it undermines the US deterrence posture vis-a-vis Iran and enhances the threat of Iranian chemical weapons attacks against major AmericanContinue reading “Empty Threats Undermine America’s Deterrence Posture”

Iran does not Fear the US and Israel

An axiom effectively regulates Iranian regime attitudes towards the US. Iran fears Republican administrations but not Democratic administrations. This is true today as well. On the contrary, Iran deters the US which dares not attack the Iranian nuclear weapons program due to a well-founded fear that it will suffer Iranian retribution on the US mainlandContinue reading “Iran does not Fear the US and Israel”

A No-Fly Zone Over Iran is a Vital US National Security Interest

Israel will destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program and the attack will likely take place in 2023. The attack would have to be repeated after less than two years and then after less than two years again. These regular attacks would go on indefinitely with intervals of less than two years so as to preventContinue reading “A No-Fly Zone Over Iran is a Vital US National Security Interest”

Israel Faces Calamity and Tehran Openly Declares so

Tehran openly states that Israel faces disaster and most Israelis do not seem to believe the Iranians. As of writing, the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) is publicly training for a scenario where Hezbollah will unleash 2 000 projectiles a day for several weeks and where Hezbollah will commit chemical weapons attacks along the Israeli-Lebanese border.Continue reading “Israel Faces Calamity and Tehran Openly Declares so”

Why Tehran Hates America

All forms of Islamism (a modern totalitarian political ideology) are intensely Anti-Semitic and believe in Anti-Jewish conspiracy theories about Jewish world domination. The Iranian regime is no exception. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi is notorious for having disseminated the so-called “Protocols of the Elders of Zion”. Islamists believe that the Jews rule the world through AmericaContinue reading “Why Tehran Hates America”

Is Khamenei Becoming Mildly Senile or is he Just Dangerous?

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is the person in charge of the Islamic Republic of Iran who makes all the major strategic decisions. There is no doubt that he is the one who made the decision to ditch the JCPOA and race towards the bomb knowing full well that Israel will destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons program. HeContinue reading “Is Khamenei Becoming Mildly Senile or is he Just Dangerous?”

Qom Risks Annihilation

Khamenei plans to use chemical weapons against Israel in the massive rocket and missile war that Hezbollah will wage on Israel following Israel’s destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program in late 2022 or early 2023. Israel has no choice but to annihilate the clerical city of Qom in Iran as a matter of deterrenceContinue reading “Qom Risks Annihilation”

Khamenei and Raisi do not Care About Sanctions

There is a paradox in Iran in that Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader and Ebrahim Raisi, the president, simply do not care about the sanctions regime, yet the sanctions do significantly affect the regional military posture of the regime as the sanctions are very effective in curbing the regional military strength of the Khomeinist empire.Continue reading “Khamenei and Raisi do not Care About Sanctions”

Burning the Assets

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (b. 1939), the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran is in an apocalyptic mood and is betting on the support of Allah. By ditching the JCPOA does he ensure that Israel will destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program. By ordering Hezbollah to launch massive barrages of 150 000 rockets andContinue reading “Burning the Assets”

What Khamenei Really Thinks of Assad

Traditionally were the Alawites or the Nusayris as they were called until the 1920s known as “Ghulat” or so-called “extremist Shias”, meaning not Shias at all who pretended to believe that Ali was a divine incarnation, hardly an Islamic belief. This was part of the Pseudo-Islamic veneer of core Median Judaism to protect Median JewsContinue reading “What Khamenei Really Thinks of Assad”

The Assad Regime is Suicidal

The Iranian regime approaches nuclear threshold status and that means that Israel will launch preemptive air strikes against the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Iran’s Lebanese proxy Hezbollah will respond by launching massive barrages of tens of thousands of missiles against Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities. This will lead Israel to order the IDF (IsraelContinue reading “The Assad Regime is Suicidal”

Khamenei is Making Irrational Decisions

Ali Khamenei’s desire to destroy Israel is fundamentally irrational, it is based in apocalyptic, Anti-Semitic and neo-imperialist fantasies. This fact however does not make the regime any less dangerous. Khamenei’s standing decision to order Hezbollah to unleash massive barrages of tens of thousands of missiles against Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities is also fundamentallyContinue reading “Khamenei is Making Irrational Decisions”

Iran’s Levantine Calculus

Iran approaches nuclear threshold status and Israel prepares to launch preemptive strikes against its nuclear weapons program. Will then Iran order Hezbollah to attack the city of Tel Aviv in response to Israel’s preemptive strikes? If Hezbollah does not launch barrages of missiles against the city of Tel Aviv will it effectively have become strategicallyContinue reading “Iran’s Levantine Calculus”

Will Hezbollah Attack Israel?

Hezbollah is part of the command and control structure of the IRGC and ultimately receives its strategic instructions from the Supreme leader himself, Ali Khamenei (b. 1939). A Hezbollah massive missile barrage against Tel Aviv following upon Israel’s preemptive air strikes against the Iranian nuclear weapons program will lead to a joint IDF-SDF war againstContinue reading “Will Hezbollah Attack Israel?”

Waiting until Doomsday?

The Iranian nuclear weapons program is racing to enrich enough uranium for an atomic bomb. In parallel is Israel racing to rapidly build a capacity to strategically degrade the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Israel will not allow Iran to amass enough enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon and is ready to preemptively attack Iran. IranContinue reading “Waiting until Doomsday?”

No Return to Vienna

Tehran has no intention of returning to the indirect Vienna negotiations. It is somewhat hard to see what Tehran fears in the negotiations as the Iranians could simply stall but they apparently do they fear that Rob Malley will make too many concessions to them as they might be fearful that Beijing and Moscow wouldContinue reading “No Return to Vienna”

The Fiction of Iranian “Democracy”

The extensive Iranian propaganda machinery abroad has long been able to create an illusion of a semblance of Iranian “democracy” with an ostensible “power struggle” between two types of Islamists dubbed “reformists” and “hardliners”. The question that must be asked however is whether there has been any substantial policy difference when the two respective IslamistContinue reading “The Fiction of Iranian “Democracy””

Will there be a Southern Front?

Will Tehran persuade Hamas and Islamic Jihad to open a southern front against Israel in the upcoming war between Hezbollah and Israel? While it could be argued that Hezbollah has enough missiles themselves and don’t need the participation of Hamas and Islamic Jihad, it could nevertheless be useful from the perspective of Hezbollah to divertContinue reading “Will there be a Southern Front?”