Why did the Biden administration discontinue the Trump administration policy of intending to devolve most of America’s superpower duties in Islamdom to Israel? There is only one answer: Suspicion that Israel will realign with China. The US nightmare scenario is that Washington would hand over most of its superpower duties in Islamdom to Jerusalem and Israel would then at some point realign with China and bring Islamdom into the Chinese orbit. What is the basis for the US fear? The Netanyahu government threatened to realign with China due to partial hostility on the part of the Obama administration towards Netanyahu’s government. Obama had a Janus-faced policy towards Israel: part close ally, part semi-adversary. The fact that the Biden administration is largely populated by former Obama staffers thus largely accounts for this intense strategic suspicion towards Israel.
But is there something more to it? Yes, there is an American geostrategic analysis that China eclipsing the United States, including Chinese weapons systems at some point becoming more advanced than American ones would offer a scenario where under Israel’s realist foreign policy it would ostensibly make perfect sense for Israel to realign with China. The analysis of the Biden administration is that this would be an Israeli strategic interest (Israel would go with the stronger according to this analysis) and that therefore Israel cannot be trusted in terms of America devolving most of its superpower duties in Islamdom to Israel. Evidence of this from America’s perspective is Israel’s strategic policy of keeping its options open with Beijing and Moscow as Beijing indeed wants Israel to realign with China and Moscow wants Israel to realign with Russia.
This analysis ignores the opinions of governments of Islamdom. Why would they go along with an Israeli realignment with China (or Russia)? They are not interested in becoming colonies in a Chinese empire or protectorates in a Russian empire and this is certainly not even an Israeli interest as the Israeli interest is to maintain a post-Islamist Islamdom as a buffer against Russian and Chinese expansionism. Governments of Islamdom know well that Jerusalem and Washington are not imperialists and they know that Tehran, Beijing and Moscow are. The consequences of becoming colonies in a Chinese empire are all too predictable and that is the transfer of hundreds of millions of Han settlers to Islamdom on the model of Xinjiang and why would Muslim nations be interested in such domination and subjugation?
The reality is that Israel is keeping its Chinese and Russian options open out of fear that an Anti-Semite or at least someone implacably hostile to Israel would be elected president of the United States. There are two main scenarios. The first, which has some likelihood is the scenario of a leftwing Anti-Zionist being elected US president much like a leftwing Anti-Zionist was recently elected president of Chile. The second is less likely but would involve a populist from the right who would turn out hostile to Israel becoming elected US president. America has a long tradition of electing centrists as well as maintaining continuity in foreign policy but those things can no longer be taken for granted.
However, Israel cannot completely substitute America in Islamdom even if Washington hands over most of its superpower duties in Islamdom to Jerusalem. Furthermore, nations of Islamdom would not agree for the American role (ultimate American security guarantees against worst case scenarios) to be supplanted by China (or Russia). Israel’s hegemony in Islamdom would certainly not be a colonial empire and Israel would therefore not be in position to force nations of Islamdom to shift loyalty to China (or Russia). Israel realigning with China (or Russia) would come at a particularly heavy price for Israel since Israel would lose what would then be its hegemony in Islamdom and so why would Israel realign with China (or Russia) unless forced to do so by an implacably hostile US policy? US policy makers must understand the historical experience of Jews suffering from the transfer of power from a ruler friendly to the Jews to one hostile to the Jews. This has happened innumerable times in Jewish history and the consequences were always tragic for the Jews. Rather, the solution is to cement US-Israel relations in such a way that these will survive a US president hostile to the indigenous sovereign Jewish nation. And the key to that is precisely to subcontract US superpower duties in Islamdom to Israel since that would make Israel and America radically more mutually strategically interdependent in making the bond literally unbreakable.
Let’s clarify that Israel certainly does not want to become a Chinese colony or a Russian protectorate and that everything possible must be done to mutually strengthen the special relationship between Jerusalem and Washington. It is Israel’s interest that China does not eclipse America just as it is America’s interest that Iran does not eclipse Israel. The Israelis believe that US dependence on Israeli intelligence, technology and cyber is such that even a US president hostile towards the Jews and/or Israel would likely not turn out implacably hostile due to the immense and growing US dependence on Israel.
An Israeli commonwealth in Islamdom would ultimately be dependent upon American security guarantees against worst case scenarios requiring major military intervention, particularly against Chinese and/or Russian invasions of Islamdom. An Israel with close to 50 million citizens would no doubt be very militarily strong but would still be reliant on American weapons systems and would not be powerful enough to defend Islamdom against China or Russia. America is, remains and will remain the indispensable superpower to Israel, to Islamdom and to the world.