American diplomacy and American leadership is imperative in ending the war in Ukraine which undoubtedly is intended by Russia to constitute the very beginning of WWIII. Relations between Moscow and Washington are at their lowest point in decades but it is nevertheless essential for the United States to reach out diplomatically to the Russian Federation. While one might think that resolving the conflict in Ukraine should have the highest priority for American diplomacy, this would be a mistake. Two decades ago Vladimir Putin wished to align Russia with the West and obviously due to the Chinese threat against Siberia, but was promptly rebuffed by the United States. Of course, the solution was never for Russia to join NATO, but rather for there to be a comparable US-led defense alliance in Asia that would include Russia and which would encircle China and which would effectively deter China from attempting to conquer Siberia and Central Asia.
While America has used Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett as its mediator in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, the most urgent focus should rather be on Asia. If diplomatic agreement can be found to create an Asian defense alliance that would encircle China then surely it will be much easier to find a resolution to the Ukraine conflict. It is important not to believe Russian propaganda about Russia absurdly feeling “threatened” by NATO, by Ukraine etc. This is all about China and Siberia and about Russia intending to conquer Europe to build an economic and demographic base that will enable Russia to build a far larger military that will be able to match the military might of much larger future Chinese military. The entire Ukraine conflict is a Russian propaganda invention, a series of pretexts to instigate WWIII in Europe in order to win WWIV with China. The Ukraine war is a mere prelude to WWIII in Europe which in turn is a preparation for WWIV with China.
As the incompetent Russian military with its unmotivated conscripts is effectively losing the war in Ukraine is it essential for American diplomacy to offer Moscow a way out by providing the possibility of the formation of a US-led Asian defense alliance that would encircle China and would also defend Siberia and Central Asia against all threats. Of course, the ill-advised sanctions regime against Russia which has no beneficial influence on the course of war whatsoever makes such diplomatic efforts very difficult as American-Russian relations are at a historical nadir. However, the military facts cannot be ignored. The utter incompetence of the Russian military and its inability to conquer Ukraine means Russia is becoming desperate and will therefore no doubt use tactical nuclear weapons against European NATO nations on a far larger scale than previously intended in its planned war of conquest. A major reason diplomacy exists is to avoid war and the current absence of diplomatic dialogue between the United States and the Russian Federation is therefore particularly dangerous.
A two-pronged strategy is required. On the one hand is it necessary to ensure that Russia gets stuck in the Ukrainian quagmire and is prevented from triumphing in Ukraine. On the other hand is it necessary to engage in sustained and patient diplomatic outreach to Moscow to provide an alternative Asian strategy to Russia’s current plans for conquest of Europe. The United States government would be particularly well advised to leave the mediation on Ukraine to the Israelis and the Turks while itself focusing on building an Asian defense alliance that would encircle China.
It is important to understand that Russia is an entirely rational actor which sees its very existence as a state threatened by Chinese imperialism and so the ad hominem attacks about President Putin’s ostensible mental health issues adds absolutely nothing to the understanding of the explosive geopolitical situation and importantly it does not help in diffusing it. Brokering an Asian defense alliance encircling China will most certainly provide geostrategic impetus for Russia to resolve the Ukraine conflict.