The Price of Aggression

Let there be no doubt that if Hezbollah and the rest of the Iranian axis launch a frontal assault on Israel in response to Israel and America destroying the Iranian nuclear weapons program there will surely be a hefty price to pay. There will be consequences, there will be a major war in the northern Levant and Lebanon and Syria (which both harbor Hezbollah) will be partitioned. Yes they will be partitioned. Iran does not believe that this will happen because they believe that Israel will be destroyed by projectiles and chemical weapons and if it were to happen do they believe that Hezbollah and the pro-Iranian militias in Syria will win a guerrilla war against a new PYD (Democratic Union Party) government in Damascus. 

To be sure freedom is not free but neither is aggression. By harboring Hezbollah will Syria and Lebanon become fully complicit in any Hezbollah frontal assault on Israel and they will surely pay the price. The world must understand that the Lebanese and Syrian regimes are entering this war fully informed of the consequences and the consequences they shall bear.

Make no mistake, Israel has no choice but to destroy Hezbollah throughout Lebanon and Syria and this is a war of no choice. Thousands of Israeli civilians will die from projectiles and potentially tens of thousands of Israeli civilians will die from attacks with chemical warheads. Israel cannot simply absorb this frontal assault and turn the other cheek in waiting for Hezbollah to build the kind of military capability where it can actually destroy Israel.

Unlike in 1982 when Israel entered with a faulty plan, this time the plan is solid. An indigenous Aramean Christian nation state will be founded as the successor state to Lebanon in parts of current Lebanon. The PYD-led AANES (Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria) will be established as the new government in Damascus. New borders will be drawn up between Jerusalem and the new governments in Beirut and Damascus. The Golan and Median Jewish (Alawite and Druze) regions of Syria and Lebanon will officially become part of Israel by trilateral international agreement. Syria will annex the remainder of Lebanon by mutual agreement between Israel and the new governments in Damascus and Beirut.

What about Hezbollah then? Yes, Hezbollah and allied militias will wage a guerrilla war against the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) just as ISIL continues to wage a guerrilla war against the SDF. That guerrilla war is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. However, what is more significant is that peace will be established between Jerusalem on the one hand and Damascus and Beirut on the other. Of course, the Iranian axis can refrain from launching a frontal assault against Israel in response to the destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program. If Syria does not want to be partitioned it could surely easily expel Hezbollah from its territory. If it does not do so and there is a Hezbollah-led frontal assault on Israel by the Iranian axis then no doubt Syria will suffer the consequences.

The Lebanese regime of course says that it prefers war with Israel over civil war and therefore does not want and ostensibly “cannot” disarm Hezbollah. Lebanon too will suffer the consequences as the country will be partitioned between Aram, Israel and Syria. The Syrian and Lebanese regimes cannot claim to be surprised when major war breaks out. They know that Alawites and Druze are Median Jews and that Israel has a blood pact with the Aramean nation promising the Arameans a sovereign indigenous nation state. None of this is a secret in the intelligence world. 

Those in the international community who do not want partition should diplomatically endeavor to convince the Iranian axis not to attack Israel and should tell Syria to expel Hezbollah from Syrian territory. Of course they will inevitably fail because Iran believes that the “annihilation of Israel” is “inevitable”. In contrast what is clear is that the outbreak of peace is inevitable on Israel’s northern front.

Published by Daniella Bartfeld

Daniella Bartfeld is the founding director of the Aliyah Organization

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