The Karish Maritime Negotiations Will Fail

Much hope has been pinned on the indirect Israeli-Lebanese negotiations about the demarcation of the maritime border line between the two nations as mediated by US diplomat Amos Hochstein. However, what is often conveniently forgotten is that the Lebanese state is now effectively Hezbollahstan, an Iranian protectorate which takes indirect orders from Tehran through the mouth of Iranian proxy Hassan Nasrallah. It was recently claimed by a Lebanese official that the talks were close to conclusion, however, the same thing has been claimed innumerable times about the supposed return to the JCPOA. What we will most likely see is that the Israeli-Lebanese indirect talks will be dragged out indefinitely, very likely punctuated by a war since Israel does not want one and Nasrallah is confident that President Biden through the UN Security Council will enforce a ceasefire after a week or so without Israel causing too much damage in Lebanon. It is in Iran’s interest to always have more than one casus belli at hand so that Hezbollah will be able to provoke war without violating the Jafari prohibition on offensive warfare. Of course, Amos Hochstein like Rob Malley is wasting his time, Iran is not interested in an agreement in either case and Iran is the one calling the shots in Lebanon nowadays.