The Karish Maritime Negotiations Will Fail

Much hope has been pinned on the indirect Israeli-Lebanese negotiations about the demarcation of the maritime border line between the two nations as mediated by US diplomat Amos Hochstein. However, what is often conveniently forgotten is that the Lebanese state is now effectively Hezbollahstan, an Iranian protectorate which takes indirect orders from Tehran through theContinue reading “The Karish Maritime Negotiations Will Fail”

Iran Poses a Greater Threat to the US than to Israel

America’s adversaries, including Iran, fear Republican administrations but certainly not Democratic administrations. Why is this so? Democratic administrations are more concerned about human rights while Republican administrations are more concerned about realpolitik. The real question is therefore whether the Iranian nuclear weapons program will be destroyed under the current Democratic administration or under the nextContinue reading “Iran Poses a Greater Threat to the US than to Israel”

Massive US Force Buildup Necessary Prior to Destroying Nuclear Program

The ostensible negotiations process with Iran might seem like a waste of time considering Iran’s complete lack of interest in an agreement with the United States. However, that is certainly not the case as the time is well used by Iran’s intended victims to prepare for war against Iran. There are three levels of militaryContinue reading “Massive US Force Buildup Necessary Prior to Destroying Nuclear Program”

Washington Needs to Mend Ties with Riyadh

In his last and successful presidential campaign candidate Biden promised to treat Saudi Arabia like a “pariah”. It is unclear whether there was a geopolitical calculus of unrealistically realigning with Iran or if there was simply no geopolitical calculus at all behind the “pariah” statement. The latter seems likely since Saudi Arabia has certainly notContinue reading “Washington Needs to Mend Ties with Riyadh”

Building the Regional Security Architecture Cannot Wait

The triangular relationship between the State of Israel, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United States of America is essential for the emerging regional security architecture in the Middle East and Islamdom at large. Much is at stake, will Iran come to dominate the Middle East and Islamdom or will it not? All thisContinue reading “Building the Regional Security Architecture Cannot Wait”

The US Needs to Provide Incentives to Saudi Arabia

In 2021 Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman al-Saud made a generous offer to US National Security Advisory Jake Sullivan. MBS offered to normalize relations with Israel in return for a list of demands for so-called “incentives” (i.e. security guarantees and weapons sales). The Americans not only inexplicably turned down the generous offer but apparently rudelyContinue reading “The US Needs to Provide Incentives to Saudi Arabia”

Saudi Arabia is Indispensable to the New Regional Security Architecture

Iran is engaged in a concerted military expansion of its military assets in the Middle East, including missiles and drones. The State of Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia are the two most important pillars in the emerging new regional security architecture in the Middle East in particular and in Islamdom at large. Yet,Continue reading “Saudi Arabia is Indispensable to the New Regional Security Architecture”

What is the US Stratagem on Islamdom?

The Biden administration is convinced that it will succeed in concluding a nuclear agreement with Iran (I am skeptical, I don’t think the Iranians are interested other than playing for time) but what are the plans of the Biden administration for the period after a conclusion of an agreement? America’s allies in Islamdom worry thatContinue reading “What is the US Stratagem on Islamdom?”

Iran does not Want to Defer the Apocalypse

Due to crushing UN economic sanctions did Iran agree to the JCPOA in 2015. Iran’s economic situation was such that Iran’s leaders agreed to defer the timeline of the Khomeinist apocalypse. Today in contrast there is no such incentive as Iran is able to export oil to China, and Tehran rightly sees no economic benefitContinue reading “Iran does not Want to Defer the Apocalypse”

The Approaching Apocalypse

Khomeinism is different from all other forms of Islamism in that it constitutes an apocalyptic death cult. No other sect of Islamism believes that the end of days is close in time. However, Khomeinism has no fixed date for the apocalypse which is somewhat flexible in time. The general understanding is that eschatological time wasContinue reading “The Approaching Apocalypse”

Malley will not Change the Khomeinist Weltanschauung

The current academic paradigm in Middle Eastern studies assumes that dialogue and cooperation with Islamists is feasible, practical, realistic and desirable, in other words is appeasement of totalitarians the predominant theory of action. The ruling mullahs in Tehran understand well the mindset of useful infidels like Rob Malley and how to diplomatically exploit it. TheContinue reading “Malley will not Change the Khomeinist Weltanschauung”

The American Desperation

The JCPOA is inching towards collapse as the definite burial of the JCPOA is only days away. The US sanctions on the Iranian civilian nuclear program were lifted as a desperate goodwill gesture to the Khomeinist regime to show them that the American government is acting in good faith. America faces a dark future asContinue reading “The American Desperation”

How Iran Interprets America’s Eagerness to Return to the JCPOA

“Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” Albert Einstein How does Tehran perceive American eagerness to return to the JCPOA and Rob Malley’s desperate appeasement negotiations tactics in Vienna? The Iranian impression is that the White House greatly fears Iran and that Iranian biological weapons terrorist deterrence vis-a-visContinue reading “How Iran Interprets America’s Eagerness to Return to the JCPOA”

Why Bet on a Dead Horse?

There are reports in the news media about Arab governments seeking normalization with the last Ba’athist regime in Damascus. This is entirely counterproductive. Major war between Israel and Iran’s allies in the Levant is entirely inescapable after Israel and America destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program as they are jointly training to do considering thatContinue reading “Why Bet on a Dead Horse?”

Apocalyptic Iran

Iran’s main designated adversaries are the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia. The notion of the United States as an implacable enemy of the Islamic Republic of Iran is based on Islamist Anti-Semitic conspiracy theory according to which the US is the center of the “Jewish conspiracy” to destroy Islam. The notion of Jews andContinue reading “Apocalyptic Iran”

Will Iran Launch a Surprise Assault?

Iran is well aware that it will be attacked but due to its belief in divine patronage does Tehran not believe that any of the insurrections will succeed after the US-led international coalition imposes a no-fly zone over Iran and provides air support to armed rebellions throughout the country. However, this does not mean thatContinue reading “Will Iran Launch a Surprise Assault?”

The Art of Building Deterrence

One year of failed appeasement policy has completely destroyed US deterrence against Iran. The notion that this can be repaired by issuing a few threats is preposterous. Public issuance of threatening statements has its place in a comprehensive deterrence posture but are on their own entirely insufficient in rebuilding America’s deterrence against Iran. Iran shouldContinue reading “The Art of Building Deterrence”

How Iran Views the US-Israel Relationship

The basic prism through which the Iranian regime views international politics and domestic politics in many countries is that of the ostensible global “Jewish conspiracy” to destroy Islam. Tehran believes that the infamous forgery of the “Protocols of the Elders of Zion” is a genuine document outlining the Zionist conspiracy to control the world. WhenContinue reading “How Iran Views the US-Israel Relationship”

What can be Expected on Iran

The Biden administration’s hawks and doves are busy preparing the US for two parallel tracks. Even the doves are becoming aware that the JCPOA is doomed and are therefore preparing for what they imagine will be negotiations on an entirely different nuclear agreement with Iran beyond the JCPOA. The hawks are preparing Plan B withContinue reading “What can be Expected on Iran”

Why did Saddam Hussein not Turn Over his WMD to the UN?

Saddam Hussein is known to have had weapons of mass destruction and he used chemical weapons against his own Kurdish citizens and against the Iranian military. The pacifist myth according to which Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction was an American propaganda fabrication therefore does not hold water. There was a United Nations inspections regimeContinue reading “Why did Saddam Hussein not Turn Over his WMD to the UN?”

Iran, Syria and Lebanon Face Checkmate with Open Eyes

Israel is preparing to destroy Hezbollah and its state sponsors in the upcoming war in the northern Levant after Israel and America eliminate the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Iran is sabotaging the Vienna process up until the very end. Once the hopeless post-JCPOA “negotiations” as envisioned by the pro-Islamist notorious appeaser Rob Malley end, aContinue reading “Iran, Syria and Lebanon Face Checkmate with Open Eyes”

Endless Negotiations are Back on the Table

An interview with US Iran envoy Rob Malley on CNN informs us that the Malley doctrine of endless negotiations is back and the Blinken doctrine of opposition to endless negotiations is dead, or at least so far the moment. Malley, the notorious appeaser of Islamists, is convinced that Iran is advancing its hugely expensive nuclearContinue reading “Endless Negotiations are Back on the Table”

The US Shifts Paradigm

The Pentagon has leaked that US officials and visiting Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz will discuss different military options on Iran and joint US-Israeli military exercises in preparation for destroying the Iranian nuclear weapons program. This is aptly described as the worst-case scenario for Iran.  It is certainly welcome that the US government has returnedContinue reading “The US Shifts Paradigm”

Will the US Join an International Coalition to Impose a No-Fly Zone over Iran?

What will US policy on Iran be after the demise of the JCPOA? Secretary of State Antony Blinken has strongly and repeatedly pronounced that the Malley doctrine (endless negotiations) is not US policy (or rather no longer US policy). The US has however given no indications as to what will be its Iran policy afterContinue reading “Will the US Join an International Coalition to Impose a No-Fly Zone over Iran?”

Why the US wants to Limit Sino-Israeli Economic Relations

The US government is very concerned about Israel-China economic relations to the point of telling Israel not to do business with Chinese companies that are active in the US. While the US has legitimate concerns in preventing transfer of sensitive dual usage technologies to China, the US has an additional agenda and that is toContinue reading “Why the US wants to Limit Sino-Israeli Economic Relations”

America Faces Apocalypse

The failed policy of the Democratic administration on Iran is a reflection of the desperate situation that America finds itself in vis-a-vis Iran. 1. Once Israel destroys the Iranian nuclear weapons program will Iran set off chemical weapons in major cities in dozens of countries around the world that are perceived to be especially connectedContinue reading “America Faces Apocalypse”

Iran is Undeterred

Israel does not yet have a military capability to destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program and will not have one for about a year or so and the US still does not have a Plan B. So currently the Iranians are not worried. However, no one should be surprised that Iran is undeterred. The lackContinue reading “Iran is Undeterred”

The US has no Plan B

There is an obvious contradiction between the Malley doctrine (yes to endless negotiations) and the Blinken doctrine (no to endless negotiations). The US is literally desperate about reconciling with the implacable Iranian regime. The reasons are deeply understandable since the consequences of Israeli conflict with Iran will be mass terrorist attacks with chemical weapons againstContinue reading “The US has no Plan B”

Appeasement Undermines Deterrence

The appeasement policy of the Democratic administration undermines America’s deterrence posture. Iran is well aware that no Democratic administration will respond with nuclear weapons to Iranian chemical weapons attacks against America and hence is America highly vulnerable to chemical weapons attacks against major American cities. President Trump was not afraid to abrogate the JCPOA sinceContinue reading “Appeasement Undermines Deterrence”

Iran is Dangerous and Irrational

The Raisi administration is officially shutting down the JCPOA by reneging on all “concessions” of the Rouhani administration. The Iranian regime knows that the US is literally desperate to reach a nuclear deal in order to avoid Iranian chemical weapons mass terrorism on a global scale. Iran knows that its WMD extortion works and apparentlyContinue reading “Iran is Dangerous and Irrational”

Shifting Iran Paradigm

As the JCPOA is about to effectively expire, we should ponder whose policy is the real US policy on Iran, Rob Malley’s advocacy of endless negotiations or Antony Blinken’s opposition to endless negotiations? Is it possible that the US is transitioning from the Malley doctrine to a Blinken doctrine? Or is Blinken’s rhetoric merely anContinue reading “Shifting Iran Paradigm”

Why Iran will Continue to Stall

Iran is determined to continue to accelerate its nuclear weapons program and participation in “negotiations” is merely a means of playing for time so as to satisfy Russia and China in order to avoid UN sanctions. Iran already however has more than enough enriched uranium for one nuclear bomb but Iran is not satisfied withContinue reading “Why Iran will Continue to Stall”

Empty Threats Undermine America’s Deterrence Posture

The Biden administration’s practice of making more or less veiled threats against Iran, threats which the administration is manifestly not ready to follow through on is not only not credible but is furthermore detrimental since it undermines the US deterrence posture vis-a-vis Iran and enhances the threat of Iranian chemical weapons attacks against major AmericanContinue reading “Empty Threats Undermine America’s Deterrence Posture”

Rob Malley Changes his Position on Iran

The United States Special Representative for Iran Rob Malley has officially changed his position on the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Previously, Malley stated that the US will continue to negotiate to reach a diplomatic solution on the question of the Iranian nuclear weapons program even after the JCPOA becomes irrelevant. This was contrary to theContinue reading “Rob Malley Changes his Position on Iran”

What is the Real Iran Policy of the United States?

There seems to be two positions on Iran among US officials. United States Special Representative for Iran Rob Malley has stated that the US will continue to seek a diplomatic solution on the Iranian nuclear weapons program even after the JCPOA becomes irrelevant. Everyone else in the Biden administration claims that the US will examineContinue reading “What is the Real Iran Policy of the United States?”

The Rise of the two Great Powers in Islamdom

There is a growing cold war between Israel and Iran taking place in the Middle East. There has also been a parallel rise of the two countries to great power status. However, there will ultimately only be room for one great power in the Middle East and Islamdom generally. Muslim countries around the world areContinue reading “The Rise of the two Great Powers in Islamdom”

Lack of Retaliation Emboldens Iran

Iran recently attacked a US military base in southern Syria with suicide drones. The US declined to respond and thus did not launch a counter-attack. This sends a very dangerous message that US targets can be attacked with impunity by Iran and its proxies without the US responding. Apparently, the US is so keen onContinue reading “Lack of Retaliation Emboldens Iran”

Tehran has no Intention of Signing an Agreement with Washington

The regime in Tehran has announced that it will resume the indirect Vienna “negotiations” in a month’s time at the end of November 2021 at a date yet to be specified. Why wait an entire month you may ask? The truth is that Iran has no intention whatsoever of signing an agreement with the UnitedContinue reading “Tehran has no Intention of Signing an Agreement with Washington”

No Return to Vienna

Tehran has no intention of returning to the indirect Vienna negotiations. It is somewhat hard to see what Tehran fears in the negotiations as the Iranians could simply stall but they apparently do they fear that Rob Malley will make too many concessions to them as they might be fearful that Beijing and Moscow wouldContinue reading “No Return to Vienna”

Fooling the World

When Iran “negotiated” in Vienna did they refuse to share the same hotel with the American delegation as led by America’s pro-Islamist Iran envoy Rob Malley. They accelerated their nuclear weapons program during the “indirect negotiations”. Now Iran even refuses to engage in “indirect negotiations” with the US while stunningly claiming to “want to returnContinue reading “Fooling the World”