Russia is Facing Defeat in Ukraine

Russia’s offensive in Ukraine shows no signs of progress and now we once more hear those tired threats of nuclear war. There is also the official Russian rhetoric according to which losing the war in Ukraine would pose an existential threat against Russia. What’s behind all that? The only existential threat against Russia, indeed the only threat against Russia comes from China which in the long term plans to conquer Siberia and the rest of Russia. In 20 years time will China be many times militarily stronger than Russia unless Moscow becomes a superpower once more by conquering Europe. Tactical nuclear weapons will not help Russia win a war with NATO unless it also has the conventional military capacity to conquer Europe which it currently does not. Western decision makers would therefore be particularly well-advised to completely disregard the Russian rhetoric about nuclear warfare as indeed baseless psychological warfare. The truth is rather that Moscow once expelled from Ukraine will face the choice of a change of strategy away from conquest of Europe to realignment with the West and its Asian allies against China. The sooner Russia is expelled from Ukraine, the faster will Moscow face this choice and Moscow will enter into alignment with the United States.