Iran’s Game Plan

What are Iran’s strategic intention in the Middle East? Iran’s strategic intention is to destabilize the Gulf region as part of its wider destabilization of West Asia and its patented method is to mobilize local Shia communities for its wider theopolitical agenda. Tehran intends to eventually project domination throughout the Arab world. 30% of Kuwait’s population is Twelver Shia, Bahrain is majority Twelver Shia and Saudi Arabia has large Shia minorities, Twelvers in the Eastern Province where most Saudi oil fields are located and Zaydis in the Southwest KSA bordering Houthi-controlled, mostly Zaydi parts of Yemen. The Mecca Pact appears to be a desperate attempt at maintaining regional stability and prevent an Iranian invasion of Saudi Arabia which Riyadh fears immensely. How would President Trump react to an Iranian invasion of KSA through Kuwait? Both Saudis and Iranians appear to reason that Trump would respond by withdrawal rather than waging major war and so leave the Saudis to fight Iran on their own. The truth about Trump is that he does not like fighting wars but recognizes that the Iranian nuclear program poses a unique threat to the United States in particular and to the world in general. Trump does not care about the KSA and Riyadh knows it. Nevertheless, the Mecca Pact is an empty gesture because neither Turkey nor Pakistan has any intention or interest in defending Saudi Arabia although all three countries have a shared interest in geopolitically containing Iran, possibly through regional military cooperation. Nevertheless Iran may prefer to first trigger Shia-Sunni civil war in KSA, Kuwait and Bahrain and invade only once those countries have been significantly weakened.