Regime Change through Intelligence Warfare

Israel has considerable intelligence capacities inside Iran, including oppositional structures supporting regime change in Iran. The US also has significant intelligence power inside Iran but probably less focused on a popular revolution since all US presidents since 1979 have officially opposed regime change in Iran. Israeli regime change structures inside Iran are therefore more entrenched and more powerful than the American ones. However, there is every reason to believe that a popular revolution and subsequent regime change would be more powerful and more effective if the CIA and the Mossad were fully coordinated behind a joint regime change strategy. The US and Israel are stronger together than if acting separately from each other. 

A popular revolution is feasible and doable but requires significant air support in addition to comprehensive intelligence warfare on the ground. Trust, strategic coherence, partnership and keeping the agreed-upon direction and strategy are absolutely essential to the success of the mission. Regime change will be different from the 2026 war where America was the senior partner and Israel the junior partner because when it comes to intelligence warfare on the ground Israel will be the senior partner and America the junior partner. The Mossad has been an active participant in all attempted and failed revolutions so far inside Iran after 1979 and has considerable experience in both what works and what not to do. America is finally veering towards a regime change strategy after decades of counter-productive policies of opposing regime change since 1979. However, CIA participation will be a game changer by adding mass and resources to the current Israeli regime change intelligence structure inside Iran and will significantly increase the likelihood of success. 

The US could e.g. capture Iranian airports and air bases near major cities and have its air force operate from them over major Iranian cities in support of the Iranian revolutionaries. Captured airports and air bases could also be used as bases for special operations targeting the Iranian repression machinery and thus supporting the revolting Iranian population. This is just an example of how US participation could amplify the Israeli regime change structure, i.e. already organized Israeli intelligence warfare structures on the ground. America can do a lot that Israel would not do due to lack of mass as well as limited resources. The CIA could e.g. massively bribe senior officers in the army and the IRGC as Israel wouldn’t (or at least not on a massive scale) due to limited resources. Intelligence warfare on the ground can be significantly scaled up and American participation would increase popular confidence in rising against the Islamic Republic. America needs to work in coordination with the Israelis and add American quantity to Israeli quality in the regime change theater inside Iran. What is doable is also feasible and ultimately inevitable and American participation will bring success to the operation.

Published by Daniella Bartfeld

Daniella Bartfeld is the founding director of the Aliyah Organization.

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