A no-fly zone over Iran is Tehran’s worst nightmare. There is no doubt that the ethnic periphery that make up half of Iran’s population will rise in armed rebellion with US air support and perhaps will the ethnic Persians as well? A no-fly zone will prevent the regime from rebuilding its nuclear weapons program after it has been destroyed by Israeli air strikes as US hegemony in the skies will allow for continual bombings of the Iranian nuclear weapons weapons program so as to make sure that the nuclear weapons program never recovers.
The creation of a series of self-governing KRG-style regional governments that are de facto independent from Tehran means that it will be possible to block Persia’s access to the Indian Ocean and impose an effective naval blockade on Persia. Tehran will thus not be able to export natural gas and will find it difficult to export anything since most of Iran’s borders will be controlled by the self-governing regional governments who will blockade Persia. US naval forces will patrol the Strait of Hormuz to prevent any passage of military or civilian Persian ships or even foreign ships with Persian cargo.
A no-fly zone will facilitate spreading revolutionary leaflets from the sky in potentially inspiring a revolution in Persia. Persia will have only half of Iran’s demographic strength and the naval blockade at the Strait of Hormuz will literally bring the Khomeinist regime to its knees. Persia will be far less of a threat than Iran and will have far less resources as the loss of the ethnic periphery means that Tehran will lose most of its oil resources.
The new regional governments will likely become model democracies as the secularized peoples of Iran crave for freedom and representative government as in Israel, America and Europe.