The Iranian regime approaches nuclear threshold status and that means that Israel will launch preemptive air strikes against the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Iran’s Lebanese proxy Hezbollah will respond by launching massive barrages of tens of thousands of missiles against Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities. This will lead Israel to order the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) to launch an operation in cooperation with the allied SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) to liberate the northern Levant from the totalitarian and Anti-Semitic forces of Khomeinism and Ba’athism. The SDF will liberate Syria with IAF (Israeli Air Force) air support. The SDF will advance southwards from Aleppo towards Damascus. Israel will occupy Lebanon for several months while rooting out Hezbollah, eliminating its missile stockpile and detonating its tunnel system. Israel will establish an Aramean Christian state as the successor state to Lebanon and annex the Median Jewish (Druze and Alawite) regions of Lebanon and Syria to Israel. The new PYD (Democratic Union Party) government in Damascus will annex the remainder of Lebanon. Israel will keep Golan by treaty. The annexations will take place by trilateral international agreement and in full compliance with international law. The new governments in Beirut and Damascus will seek international recognition.
The Assad regime has no chance whatsoever of surviving such a war. There will be no “resistance” after liberation other than Hezbollah in Twelver Shiite areas and some Iranian-supported militias with no popular support. It will be a complete death knell for the Assad regime. There will be absolutely nothing left of the regime once the SDF has reached Damascus. It is peculiar how the regime leaders could reach an agreement with Jerusalem to save their assets and assure immunity from prosecution and instead they will literally lose everything except for their foreign bank accounts. What is the Assad regime fighting for? It is not fighting for Pan-Arabism, Pan-Syrianism, Ba’athism and certainly not for Khomeinism. It is not even about the Alawite people for the Alawite community is as oppressed as everyone else in Syria and the regime shamefully tries to assimilate the Median Jewish Alawite people into Islam. And so if the regime leaders are not ready to stand up even for their money and protect themselves from prosecution then what on earth are they expending blood and treasure for? The mere thrill of power?
The Assad regime is morally and ideologically bankrupt yet it has tenaciously clung to power in having won the civil war against Sunni Jihadism. Bashar al-Assad bets on making another attempt at staying in power against all odds. One may then ask for what will all those thousands and even tens of thousands of Syrians die? For the power of Bashar al-Assad? What is the point of all of it? Just one man’s pleasure? The Ba’ath party is absolutely morally corrupt. There is no trace of genuine ideology whatsoever in the Ba’ath party.
Bashar al-Assad and his coterie of ethnically Alawite turncoat regime leaders could cut a deal for the partition of Syria between Israel and the AANES (Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria) which would see those leader living the rest of their lives as successful businessmen in the city of Tel Aviv as they surely would not be welcome in Syria or in the Israeli-annexed Alawite region. They could have good lives and keep all their money without any risk of prosecution. Yet they insist however on the paths of Muammar Gaddafi and Saddam Hussein. This is a real tragedy for the peoples of Syria and it is furthermore completely and utterly self-defeating for the regime leaders personally.
Israel however has no real choice in this matter, it cannot conceivably engage in a self-defeating purely tactical Gaza-style aerial war of “restoring-deterrence” which would be ludicrous since Hezbollah is part of the IRGC command and control structure and as such receives its strategic instructions from the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran. How could Israel possibly deter Ali Khamenei in Lebanon? This is the question. It is impossible. This war is not about deterrence. It is about strategic victory, reshaping the region, permanently redrawing the boundaries and collapsing the western wing of the Khomeinist empire.
The war is anyhow inevitable since Hezbollah’s increasing missile buildup means that Israel at some point with the SDF would need to launch a preemptive war against the Iranian axis in the northern Levant. Israel cannot tolerate that Hezbollah’s missile buildup would continue until it would become an existential threat against the city of Tel Aviv, Israel’s economic capital and ultimately a threat against the very existence of the State of Israel. Israel has the right and furthermore the responsibility to defend itself against those seeking to annihilate the Jewish people. This is a war of no choice.