Will Hezbollah strike the city of Tel Aviv following Israel’s destruction of Iran’s nuclear weapons program considering the significant and existential consequences for the Western flank of the Iranian Empire that a joint IDF-SDF operation would have? The answer is absolutely in the affirmative because the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran is ideologically rigid and won’t budge one iota neither on strategy nor on tactics. However, even if I were wrong and Hezbollah were not to launch massive barrages of tens of thousands of missiles against Tel Aviv and other Israel cities should Israel and the allied AANES (Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria) nevertheless launch a joint strategic operation against the Iranian axis in the northern Levant and I shall explain why.
Both Israel and the AANES are basically in desperate strategic situations threatened by destruction. The AANES does not have access to the sea, is permanently under strategic threat from hostile neighbors and does not have access to advanced weaponry due to being landlocked. Hezbollah already possesses 150 000 missiles and the Hezbollah missile threat is only growing. Hezbollah will ten years from now be able to raze the city of Tel Aviv to ground and murder its population along with it. That is an entirely unacceptable strategic situation for Israel and this warrants destroying Hezbollah long before it becomes capable of destroying the city of Tel Aviv and the time to act is now. Indeed, the destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program provides a suitable point in time for initiating a war of no choice. The AANES has no other allies than Israel and the US and the AANES desperately needs to break out from its current strategic situation and take control over Syria. Once the AANES reaches the sea, the strategic situation of the AANES will be safe. However it is not possible to destroy Hezbollah without also dismantling Lebanon and Syria since Hezbollah is inextricably intertwined with these two terror-supporting states under the aegis of Khomeinist Iran.
Israel will occupy Lebanon for several months while rooting out Hezbollah, eliminating its missile stockpile and detonating its tunnel network. The SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) with IAF (Israeli Air Force) air support will liberate Syria. The SDF will advance southwards from Aleppo towards Damascus. Israel will establish an Aramean Christian state as the successor state to Lebanon and annex Median Jewish (Druze and Alawite) regions of Syria and Lebanon to Israel. The new PYD (Democratic Union Party) government in Damascus will annex the remainder of Lebanon. All border changes will be strictly as per international law and will be carried out through a trilateral international agreement between Jerusalem and the new governments in Beirut and Damascus. Golan will remain part of Israel as per the agreement.
For Israel and the AANES is this a matter of sheer survival and I would argue that the time to act is pretty much soon. While the war will be bloody and brutal and the international community is not nowadays accustomed to warfare between nation states, the international community must nevertheless understand that this is a war for the very survival of Israel. The intended existential threat against the city of Tel Aviv is by its very nature genocidal and this threat must be preempted in due time, i.e. before it emerges and not after it emerges when it will already be too late as in the case of the North Korean threat against Seoul.
Synchronizing the commencement of the war in Lebanon and Syria with the preemptive strikes against the Iranian nuclear weapons program is politically correct irrespective of whether Hezbollah is ordered by Tehran to initiate the conflict or not. An existential threat against the city of Tel Aviv is a threat against the very existence of the State of Israel and Israel must mobilize its full resources in the fight for survival. This is a moment of major decision similar to those in 1948 and 1967 and Israel must act preemptively and strategically so as to prevent a major threat to its very existence.