What is the situation in Lebanon 31 years after Hezbollah failed to honor the Taif Agreement which required disarming all militias? Hezbollah controls the military, the international airport, the seaports, the system of justice and even the government itself. Lebanon is not that far removed from being declared a Twelver Shia Islamist Republic as that no doubt is Iran’s plan.
An Israeli invasion of Lebanon will no doubt save the country from the tribulations of a horrible theocracy. This is not to deny that the war will be bloody and that there will be significant suffering. The Lebanese Republic has effectively come to a dead end in having ended up as an Iranian vassal state and it is therefore time to dissolve Lebanon itself and save the peoples of Lebanon from the horrible fate of living under neo-medievalist theocracy.
When Lebanon was created by France it was intended to become a haven for the persecuted Christians of the Middle East. Extending the smaller Lebanon into the Greater Lebanon (Grand Liban) was always a mistake and one that needs to be corrected.
Iran is approaching the point of becoming a nuclear threshold state, something that is absolutely unacceptable to Israel. Israel will destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program from the air. Hezbollah will no doubt respond by unleashing barrages of tens of thousands of missiles against Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities in causing massive damage and horrifying carnage to the civilian population. Israel will have little choice but to order the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) to launch an operation in cooperation with SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) to liberate Lebanon and Syria from the totalitarian forces of Khomeinism and Ba’athism. The SDF will liberate Syria with IAF (Israeli Air Force) air support and will advance southwards from Aleppo towards Damascus. Israel will occupy Lebanon for several months while rooting out Hezbollah, eliminating its missile stockpile and detonating its tunnel system. Israel will establish an Aramean Christian state as the successor state to Lebanon and will annex Median Jewish (Druze and Alawite) regions of Syria and Lebanon to Israel. The new PYD (Democratic Union Party) government will annex the remainder of Lebanon. All border changes will take place strictly according to international law under an international agreement between Jerusalem and the new governments in Beirut and Damascus. The Golan will remain part of Israel as part of the agreement. Furthermore will the Palestinians of the northern Levant be enfranchised and given full citizenship where they reside.
A war, despite the significant suffering it will inflict on the peoples of Lebanon will crucially save the people from theocracy. The Druze and the Alawites of Lebanon will become Israeli citizens and will live in a liberal democracy. The new free Aram will no doubt become a model liberal democracy. The Muslim majority of Lebanon will become part of Syria where they will be governed by the AANES (Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria) liberal guided democracy whose unofficial state ideology is feminism.
Hezbollah will not establish an Islamist Republic in Lebanon as they dreamed of and instead will wage an insurgency against the SDF for many years to come. Hezbollah will be crushed by the SDF just as the SDF crushed ISIL, yet likely not completely as the conflict will probably linger for many years to come.
The fact remains, despite the inevitable international protests against the Israeli invasion and the ensuing domestic discontent in Israel, will the war constitute a liberation of the peoples of Lebanon from the tyranny of Khomeinism and the intended theocratic medievalist totalitarianism.