It’s not About the Money

Israeli officials are somewhat hysterical in anticipation of a nuclear agreement materializing in Vienna. This of course is profoundly understandable since the JCPOA and an even worse hypothetical follow-up agreement are disastrous for Israeli security and are completely worthless as an insurance for Israeli survival. The question is however whether there will be an agreement in Vienna? Does Tehran want an agreement? Jerusalem assumes that the mullahs are ready to temporarily roll back their nuclear weapons program for three years until as expected Donald Trump returns to the White House, in return for a windfall of oil revenues during those three years. This however is based on game theory and assumes that Tehran is a rational actor. Furthermore, there is not even enough time left for resolving remaining outstanding issues even if Tehran wanted an agreement. Iran could instead grow its oil revenues by increasing its oil exports to China. The Iranian regime is fundamentally apocalyptic and martyrdom-seeking as its final aim is to establish the global theocratic rule of the Hidden Imam. The Iranian regime operates according to its own logic and to assume that the regime can be bought off for three years with oil revenues is naive. I could be wrong of course, but all indications point to the regime continuing to engage in delaying tactics until the JCPOA is finally irrelevant.